PM Abhisit Shrugs Off Coup Rumor

[jdinasia]

I'm sure you are aware that, of the 233 PPP politicians who won seats in 2007, only 189 of them are with PTP these days. The Democrat figures have remained pretty-much the same the whole time (around the 170 mark). Of the PPP seat-winners who did not jump to PTP, most of them decided to back the Democrat-led coalition.

That means that, if one is to follow the pattern, the Democrat-led coalition will win the election with just over 240 seats (enough to form a government) and PTP with Peua Pandin (now that Sanoh has jumped over) will get 195-200 seats, with Peua Pandin certainly a prime target for Thaksin's acquisition so that PTP can approach the 230 mark. I also can't see any of the coalition parties leaving. One criticism (I would say the only justificable one) of Abhisit is his pandering to his coalition backers. I mean, what's diplomacy got to do with politics?!

However, I don't think we can follow the pattern; neither do you, but we are opposite in our conclusions. Certainly I think that "In the next election Pheu Thai are quite likely to win even more seats - as a consequence of the events of last year" is an especially funny thing to say. I'd say the exact opposite.

We can't really rely on pre-election polls either - not surprising given the ridiculous results that come from Abac's "society" polls! In the 4 months before the 2007 election, three polls were conducted and came up with the Dems winning 32-43% and PPP winning 21-39%. In the end PPP got 48.5%.

I agree that there will be a coup soon. But I don't think it will be in Thailand and I don't think you can continue to say "soon" when you have been saying "soon" for years already.

Pi Sek,

The events of last year may have polarized a few more voters than the way things were in the past. The question is, which voters and where? If it polarized a few more people towards the reds in a red held area it has no affect. The same result if it polarized a few more people towards the Dems in a Democrat stronghold.

I think the Dems/Coalition will need to address last year's redshirt violence and their response to it, but that their real mountain to climb is the economy and inflation. They will need to focus on Korn's accomplishments and international recognition. They will need to focus on how Thailand faired during a global economic downturn compared to other regional economies. They will need to spend time and political energy on pushing both their accomplishments and their goals with social welfare programs, both in the cities and in rural areas.

Voters everywhere tend to be fickle AND they tend to concentrate on feelings and not reality. A global downturn may not be forgiven even though Thailand did well in dealing with the problems and some people may look back to earlier times when the global economy was better and give credit for it where it is not due.

You are, of course, correct when you point out that some people are always saying there will be a coup soon. In real terms it is like a broken clock, bound to be right twice a day (but wrong the other 86,398 seconds of the day )