Thailand: The Calm Before The Next Storm

[folium]

An interesting, and very level-headed, report on the political situation in Thailand today. Not overly pessimistic or optimistic, it is excellent reading.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/south-east-asia/thailand/B121-thailand-the-calm-before-another-storm.aspx

Also attached is a graphic highlighting the level of income inequality in a variety of countries. Thailand is one of the most unequal countries in Asia, with the richest 20% earning 15 times that of the bottom 20%. In China the ratio is 8:1.

Spot the connection to the political situation.

[Greenside]

Thanks for posting this.

I was thinking about getting some feedback from the CM TV readers as to how politicised their Thai families are at this time. My wife has the local Red Shirt radio on for much of the day which, while the constant angry rhetoric and ads for the Worarot Hotel get me down after a while, does at least leave me TV time to watch The Sons Of Anarchy. Oddly, the relentless speeches and phone ins (with reverb, for some reason) are punctuated with the theme from The Good, The Bad and The Ugly and the Battle Hymn Of The Republic! Are politics central to other people's nearest and dearest at the moment?

Another thought in view of the chart you posted: most would agree that the huge inequality in earnings here is as obvious as it is depressing, but wouldn't a significant elevation of the prospects of the poor cause many of us here on fixed incomes some major long term problems? The tourist, food and manufacturing industries rely on a low wage economy and many here couldn't survive for long if it disappeared - could you maintain your lifestyle in your home country? Like it or not, aren't the cheap restaurants, cheap rents and cheap services we enjoy built on the lack of choice and low earning power of the people at the bottom end of the chart?

Probably not a popular thought for a Sunday morning, sorry.

[keo]

Thanks for the link.

Upcoming documentary... Enter the Red Shirts by Aphiwat Saengphatthaseema

Looks like it could be very interesting, not sure when it will be released though.

Girlfriend is a red shirt, although not a particularly fanatic one, so no red shirt radio in my house thankfully!

[folium]

Greenside

You very neatly summarize the dilemma of exploitation. Yes, we all enjoy the benefits of income inequality, paying employees a month what you can easily drop on a busy night out. Handy, but is that really sustainable over the long term?

Throw in weak government, a justifiable lack of respect for politicians and an absence of a fully functioning, even-handed rule of law, and you have all the ingredients for a rerun of last April/May on a far more dramatic level.

That will put a far greater dent in our "quality of life". It's similar to old colonials bemoaning the "uppity natives" who really should be more grateful, and wondering where the houseboy has got to with the drinks.

Without being melodramatic, we could all have a lot more to worry about this year than missing cats and dogs and the availability of decent Mexican food. Hopefully my concerns are misplaced but events in the Middle East are being watched carefully by many interested groups around the world, and those events underline the fact that people can only be shafted by their rulers for as long as they allow it to happen.

[tijnebijn]

Interesting , but not discussing the things deeply enough , things stated are the obvious .

Where you can read some deeper analysis I do enjoy are the articles written at

www.atimes.com .

But indeed , all we can do is waiting how the storm will look like .

[folium]

Interesting , but not discussing the things deeply enough , things stated are the obvious .

Where you can read some deeper analysis I do enjoy are the articles written at

www.atimes.com .

But indeed , all we can do is waiting how the storm will look like .

Asia Times Online does have many excellent articles about the region and covers Asian news stories from an in-depth, highly knowledgeable angle.

The only point to bear in mind about ATol is that it is owned by Sondhi Limthongku, the leader of PAD and NPP, and therefore a fairly influential "yellow shirt".

[Puwa]

or http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/

[heybruce]

Thanks for posting this.

I was thinking about getting some feedback from the CM TV readers as to how politicised their Thai families are at this time. My wife has the local Red Shirt radio on for much of the day which, while the constant angry rhetoric and ads for the Worarot Hotel get me down after a while, does at least leave me TV time to watch The Sons Of Anarchy. Oddly, the relentless speeches and phone ins (with reverb, for some reason) are punctuated with the theme from The Good, The Bad and The Ugly and the Battle Hymn Of The Republic! Are politics central to other people's nearest and dearest at the moment?

Another thought in view of the chart you posted: most would agree that the huge inequality in earnings here is as obvious as it is depressing, but wouldn't a significant elevation of the prospects of the poor cause many of us here on fixed incomes some major long term problems? The tourist, food and manufacturing industries rely on a low wage economy and many here couldn't survive for long if it disappeared - could you maintain your lifestyle in your home country? Like it or not, aren't the cheap restaurants, cheap rents and cheap services we enjoy built on the lack of choice and low earning power of the people at the bottom end of the chart?

Probably not a popular thought for a Sunday morning, sorry.

You are correct but incomplete: An ample supply of cheap labor, benefits all those on the top of the food chain. Manufacturers love the situation; engineering graduates typically get starting salaries of 10,000 to 15,000 baht a month, while I'm told that technicians in some of the factories around Lamphun earn less than 5000 baht a month, which places them below the workers in the average Chinese factory. And of course the poor educational system in the north and northeast guarantees an ample supply of cheap labor for the service industries; as we all know you can get any imaginable "service" for a bargain in Thailand.

Where you stand on an issue depends on where you sit, and most ex-pats and the Thai elite are sitting pretty and don't want the current economic order to change. That's why most of them are opposed to the Redshirts (yeah, I know, Thaksin was corrupt. Is anyone claiming that corruption ended, or was perceptibly reduced, after he was ousted?). However the "have-not" can clearly see the income difference between them and the "haves", and using military and judicial coups to remove democratically elected leaders who promise to improve the lives of the poor does not stabilize the current status, it increases resentment and the risk of major problems.

I am not predicting a major blow-up, just suggesting that if upcoming elections are not recognized as fair and the election results respected by all, even if elections result once again in a Redshirt government, and if the judiciary does not do something about its perceived politicization, things are not going to get better. Of course a Redshirt government is not guaranteed to improve the lot of the poor, but if they don't they'll probably be voted out in the following election. That's how democracy is supposed to work.

[Greenside]

That the status quo benefits the current "haves" goes without saying and I'd venture to add that the lack of funding and attention to the state education system across the whole country creates extra barriers for those at the bottom of the economic pile striving to better their lot.

I wasn't living here in the Thaksin era, how do you think a Red Shirt administration would affect our lives in CM?

[Ulysses G.]

Another thought in view of the chart you posted: most would agree that the huge inequality in earnings here is as obvious as it is depressing, but wouldn't a significant elevation of the prospects of the poor cause many of us here on fixed incomes some major long term problems?

It is my opinion that it does not matter which side wins as the lot of the poor will not get better in any significant way for a long, long time. The leaders - red or yellow - will give them as little as possible to keep them in check and it will not amount to much. All the class warfare stuff is just rhetoric to exploit them and take or remain in power.

[cloudhopper]

It is my opinion that it does not matter which side wins as the lot of the poor will not get better in any significant way for a long, long time. The leaders - red or yellow - will give them as little as possible to keep them in check and it will not amount to much. All the class warfare stuff is just rhetoric to exploit them and take or remain in power.

Yeah exactly. Just like the dems and repubs in the States, it doesn't matter who wins - meet the new boss same as the old boss they all work for the elite class.

[Johpa]

It is my opinion that it does not matter which side wins as the lot of the poor will not get better in any significant way for a long, long time. The leaders - red or yellow - will give them as little as possible to keep them in check and it will not amount to much. All the class warfare stuff is just rhetoric to exploit them and take or remain in power.

I agree. Thai politics is all about which group within the "old boys network" will get the biggest piece of the pie as they all continue to go about "eating the country", (kin muang)as they say in the vernacular. They are not arguing over policy or ideology, only in how to obtain and then share the spoils and yet still get elected by the populace. Thaksin relies upon the more rural and poorer folks for votes by throwing them a few more bones then do those under the "Yellow" banner promoted by closet racists like Limthongkul. And since nobody can predict when the big storm will actually hit (and ya got to love the euphemism that allows us to post on that subject here) everyone is fluid in their loyalties as everyone is jockeying for position. And since there are no substantial politics or ideologies involved, it is easy to remain fluid in one's political fealties.

[realthaideal]

Well put, Johpa. Indeed, what can we do but sit back and watch as people jockey for position and accuse/ grandstand in the lakorn that is Thai politics ? We are all watching, waiting. A Thai friend of mine (younger) asked me why I knew so much about Thaksin and his policies and the coup. I told her that most of us Farang do. When things went down a few years ago we watched the tanks roll around the Salaklang, and saw the soldiers stationed all over the city. It's times like those when we all watch, wait, and make contingency plans. ie - b/u harddrive, have passport, credit cards, n small bag ready to go ! Like the big earthquake predicted for LA someday in the near future, we can rest very-assured that the big storm will hit here in the not-so-distant future as well.

[folium]

The analogy with quakes in California is spot on.

We know where the fault lines run, we know that the pressure is building up, we know that the quake will come, it's just a question of exactly when and how powerful it will be. The longer the pressure builds up, the greater the release of energy and the greater the amount of potential harm. We can do little but be aware, be prepared and have contingency plans in place.

[tijnebijn]

Interesting , but not discussing the things deeply enough , things stated are the obvious .

Where you can read some deeper analysis I do enjoy are the articles written at

www.atimes.com .

But indeed , all we can do is waiting how the storm will look like .

Asia Times Online does have many excellent articles about the region and covers Asian news stories from an in-depth, highly knowledgeable angle.

The only point to bear in mind about ATol is that it is owned by Sondhi Limthongku, the leader of PAD and NPP, and therefore a fairly influential "yellow shirt".

Wow , really ? I didn't know that , surprising though because some articles written about Thailand often have information which is the opposite regarding what the PAD stands for .

Mostly I read other interesting in depth Asian stories , but indeed the Thailand angle I'll have to read with a bit of political salt , but perhaps there isn't much intervening in those articles , because no much need to spew propaganda through this way , hope not .

[tijnebijn]

Well put, Johpa. Indeed, what can we do but sit back and watch as people jockey for position and accuse/ grandstand in the lakorn that is Thai politics ? We are all watching, waiting. A Thai friend of mine (younger) asked me why I knew so much about Thaksin and his policies and the coup. I told her that most of us Farang do. When things went down a few years ago we watched the tanks roll around the Salaklang, and saw the soldiers stationed all over the city. It's times like those when we all watch, wait, and make contingency plans. ie - b/u harddrive, have passport, credit cards, n small bag ready to go ! Like the big earthquake predicted for LA someday in the near future, we can rest very-assured that the big storm will hit here in the not-so-distant future as well.

Personally I would be cautious but not ready to go , because I won't , except if its going to be genocide , no reason for something like that to happen even in the worst case scenario , big storms are all over the world , some literally some with war , civil war or mental war where governments declared war to its people taxing them with everything they have got , no I thought we in the West had good morals but its just as corrupt as it is in Asia , different skin different wording different culture but just as worse , so why take my small bag and run from one disaster to another ?

I prefer to look it at the positive side and not to think of it negative , everywhere is just as good and just as bad , the important thing is if you let something scare you , if it does the meaning will be it has already won , end of story .

Edited April 24, 2011 by tijnebijn

[KRS1]

Thanks for the link.

Upcoming documentary... Enter the Red Shirts by Aphiwat Saengphatthaseema

Looks like it could be very interesting, not sure when it will be released though.

Girlfriend is a red shirt, although not a particularly fanatic one, so no red shirt radio in my house thankfully!

in that video is typical red shirt misleading of the followers, that lawyer in the video said 'The governemnt eants to get all the poor people together and kill them..."

What an a$$hole.

[chiangmaiexpat]

Is it possible to provide a link to the context of the above graph? I'd be interested in how this data was measured. The Gini coefficient, which seems to be the most widely accepted figure measuring income inequality, paints a quite different picture with Thailand being in the middle field around the 0.4 mark ahead of the US.

Cheers, CMX

[folium]

CMX

As ever there is not a simple answer. The graph I highlighted comes from World Bank data and if you want to see their recent work on income inequality go to this link;

My link

Gini coefficients are widely used and make for interesting comparisons but do need to be seen in context.

With relevance to Thailand the key points about income inequality are;

the perception of inequality within a society

and the ability/inability to bring about meaningful change by individual or group efforts within that society.

Where you have a high degree of actual and/or perceived inequality;

where you have a rigid class/caste structure that frustrates opportunity for advancement;

where you have income inequality having a material impact on individuals (an inabiility to afford basics such as healthcare or education; not an annual holiday or new car every 3 years as in income inequality impact on developed nations).

Where you have these is where you have the potential for civil strife, as we are now seeing across the Arab world.