PM Abhisit Dissolves House, But What Lies Beyond July 3?

[webfact]

PM dissolves House, but what lies beyond July 3?

By TULSATHIT TAPTIM

THE NATION

Snap election sets stage for efforts to move country forward, but deep division also means it risks going back into a vicious circle

After 1,233 days, the House of Representatives has been dissolved. The curtain has come down on a parliamentary term that was arguably the most violent in modern Thai history. Government House was seized, and those who occupied it for months were subject to a bloody crackdown and yet still managed to take over the international airport for a few days. Their opposite numbers gave the country two turbulent Songkrans in a row. The death toll last year was among the worst from political upheaval seen in the Kingdom in recent decades.

The past was vicious, the present is tense, but what about the future? Even the most optimistic analysts cannot see an immediate solution coming out of the July 3 poll. The House dissolution announced by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva yesterday only removed one element out of myriad uncertainties. Coup speculation will die down, simply because few would dare overthrow a government that relinquished power in favour of democracy.

As for the rest of what's next, Thais can only hope for the best and be prepared for the worst. The election raises the possibility of a change of guard. Most, if not all, recent polls have favoured the opposition Pheu Thai Party, and the ultimate question has shifted from whether it would win to how big its margin of victory will be, as well as what the party might do with a new mandate.

But the Democrats' "demise" is far from a foregone conclusion. Many observers believe that if the ruling party gets beaten by a slim margin, its chances of remaining in power through the help of existing allies will still be good. Some analysts do not discount a Democrat victory at all, as state mechanisms always support the incumbents, and changing electoral patterns may help Abhisit's party.

After party-list candidacy registration and constituency candidacy applications are completed at the end of this month, a very heated election campaign will kick off. The Pheu Thai and its red-shirt supporters, however, are expected to be cautious in order to avoid giving an excuse to any powerbrokers waiting for an opportunity to cancel the poll. But all the while they will have to pray that their virtual patriarch, Thaksin Shinawatra, does not cross any constitutional line in his last-ditch, all-out effort to resuscitate his political empire.

Thaksin may have violated some rules already, but anything he does or says after the House dissolution will face greater scrutiny. And while he will have to do many things behind closed doors to prevent potentially disastrous consequences for his party, there is a crucial public decision to make. His bought time is now up on whom he wants as Pheu Thai's candidate to be prime minister.

In a matter of days, the public will know if it is possible that the country could get its first female prime minister. Yingluck Shinawatra has to be a name among Pheu Thai's party-list candidates for the unpre-cedented to happen, and Thaksin has about a week to decide if he should throw his dear younger sister into the fierce world of Thai politics.

The military has vowed to be a good bystander - a promise that has been met with more scepticism than applause. Although most analysts have ruled out a putsch, fewer believe the Armed Forces will stay still and not try to influence |post-election politics one way or another. The generals are in fact the main reason why the Thaksin camp is saying that it does not only need to win, but also win by a landslide.

The stage has been set, but "for what" remains to be seen. The House dissolution may send Thailand straight back into a vicious cycle, or the country will venture into uncharted territory again. Abhisit said virtual goodbye to the nation yesterday and that much is unequivocal. Who will say "Hello" after July 3 is what's unpredictable.

-- The Nation 2011-05-10

related topic:

Election set for July 3

His Majesty The King Signs House Dissolution Decree

[englishinsiam]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

[whybother]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

[featography]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

I'm reading over and over the article. TULSATHIT TAPTIM did a fine job writing this. Every word spelled correctly, proper punctuation marks, and easily understandable. Impressive. Who is this Kune Tulsathit??

[fatfather]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

... and Samak...

fatfather

[ianf]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

I'm reading over and over the article. TULSATHIT TAPTIM did a fine job writing this. Every word spelled correctly, proper punctuation marks, and easily understandable. Impressive. Who is this Kune Tulsathit??

The reds' fight for democracy:

In Chiang Mai they have systematically defaced posters of Abhisit, tearing out his face wherever they can.

In Chiang Mai they have already errected posters offering a free tablet pc to all children! (At the same time denouncing the democrats for buying votes).

In San Patong there are already reports of red thugs threatening those who will not vote red (source, Thai friend of 20 years resident in a village)

and so it goes on: All organised and financed by a leader who has been banned from politics.

As a long time resident of chiang mai, I fear for the future. I really do, so I hope that the democrats get their act together.

[Babcock]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

I'm reading over and over the article. TULSATHIT TAPTIM did a fine job writing this. Every word spelled correctly, proper punctuation marks, and easily understandable. Impressive. Who is this Kune Tulsathit??

The reds' fight for democracy:

In Chiang Mai they have systematically defaced posters of Abhisit, tearing out his face wherever they can.

In Chiang Mai they have already errected posters offering a free tablet pc to all children! (At the same time denouncing the democrats for buying votes).

In San Patong there are already reports of red thugs threatening those who will not vote red (source, Thai friend of 20 years resident in a village)

and so it goes on: All organised and financed by a leader who has been banned from politics.

As a long time resident of chiang mai, I fear for the future. I really do, so I hope that the democrats get their act together.

go on I dare you admit you're a fascist.

[anterian]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

I'm reading over and over the article. TULSATHIT TAPTIM did a fine job writing this. Every word spelled correctly, proper punctuation marks, and easily understandable. Impressive. Who is this Kune Tulsathit??

He speaks good English also. He is a youngish guy, he is an editor on the Nation Newspaper. I like him.

[zzaa09]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

Puppets are a way of life and reflects contemporary Thai history.

Fledgling [little "d"] democracy, indeed.

The more things, the more they stay the same.......

[quandow]

It's laughable Thaksin would be allowed to put a puppet PM in place in the form of his sister.

The politics of a fledgling Democracy where the Baht still rules above all.

He put a puppet PM in place in the form of his brother in law. He's just getting it closer to the family this time.

I'm reading over and over the article. TULSATHIT TAPTIM did a fine job writing this. Every word spelled correctly, proper punctuation marks, and easily understandable. Impressive. Who is this Kune Tulsathit??

He speaks good English also. He is a youngish guy, he is an editor on the Nation Newspaper. I like him.

. . . he speaks English well . . .

[IanPrince99]

What lies beyond July 3? First woman PM? Perhaps.

[anterian]

I guess quandow thinks he is an English grammarian

Well is an adverb , good is an adjective.

"good English" is a phrasal noun.

He speak good English, is more emphatic than he speaks English well.

[jimbeam1]

What lies beyond July 3? First woman PM? Perhaps.

Possible Military rule perhaps?

jb1