Rubber Trees

[jamescollister]

Think I see where this talk of 100 Baht is coming from and the talk of limits on the amount you can sell. Whether it really happens is another thing.

Thailand: Rubber stocks likely till price rises

The fall in the price of domestic rubber despite government intervention is an effect of the euro-zone crisis, and the government may decide to keep stocks until the price improves.

Among agricultural exports, rubber has been hit the hardest by the crisis as importers have turned to Malaysia and Indonesia for products cheaper than Thailand’s.

The government allocated a 15-billion-baht budget to buy rubber from cooperatives and community businesses at 100 baht a kilogramme of raw rubber sheet and 104 baht per kg of smoked rubber sheet.

Prapas Euanontat, president of the Thai Rubber Association, said the government has already bought 50,000 tonnes of rubber from cooperatives. However, the price of rubber in Thailand has continued to decline, reflecting the price in the world market and clearly indicating the level of impact from the EU crisis (see table).

He said the government’s price intervention policy failed to lift the domestic price because the amount purchased by the government is low compared to total rubber production.

The government plans to spend 15 billion baht to stock rubber _ the budget will cover around 150,000 tonnes of rubber while total domestic production is around 3.6 million tonnes a year.

In order to lift the price, the government may need to announce stock holding until it gets an appropriate price.

“China, a major buyer of Thai rubber, is likely to delay orders because of the downward trend in rubber price. Exporters will wait to buy when the price dives deeper,” said Mr Prapas.

Luckchai Kittipon, chief executive officer of Thai Hua Rubber Plc, also said that the government should clearly indicate its plan to hold stock while waiting for the price to pick up.

He said the downward trend in global rubber prices was caused by a variety of factors including the slowdown in the economic growth of China, a major importer of rubber and agricultural products from Thailand.

The economic committee chaired by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is scheduled to meet this week to monitor the impact of the euro-zone crisis on individual Thai export markets.

Apichart Jongsakul, secretary-general of the Office of Agricultural Economics, said the Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry will propose that the government consider the impact on the farm sector.

The agency has drawn up two scenarios. In the first case of slight impact on the Thai economy because Thailand can seek new markets in Asia instead of the EU, the agricultural sector would grow by 3.4% from a target of 5%. In the second scenario with a greater impact, the sector would grow by 2.9%.

Mr Apichart said the government should specifically monitor rubber and products because the rubber industry is highly sensitive to economic growth, while Thailand’s competitors like Indonesia and Malaysia are offering lower priced rubber products favourable to importers.

Prices of other products such as rice, fresh and frozen shrimp also continued to decline.

The ministry planned to maintain exports to strong economies like the UK, Germany and Netherlands while replacing weaker ones with new Asian markets.

Asian markets like Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Thailand are in the same position as exports are a major contribution to their economies.

Mr Apichart expressed concern over Thai exports to China because 12% of Chinese farm products were shipped to the EU while Thailand exported 15% of its farm products to China.

Source : bangkokpost.com

[Mosha]

Wife's just called 2 places,.68 baht. SE Asia, Japan and S Korea economic growth is stuttering to a halt UK's econmy shrank last month, if this month is the same, the UK will be back in recession.

Edited August 14, 2012 by Mosha

[Mosha]

Correction 65 Baht/kg. The shop told my wife, that's it. She's not buying any more, until the market stabalises

[cobbler]

Just now had on Thai news ''Thai will join Indonesia and Malaysia about rubber ,because there prices are so low and ours are high.''

Not surprised if our industry is due for a big shake up.A worker here can earn 300,000baht per year.No qualification.An accountant in Bangkok with a four year degree earns between 100,000 to 150,000 baht per year.Wages in yang industry are too high.But who's going to do it for less.Answer,Indonesia and Myanmar.Whats going to happen????????

[glennb6]

Can I get a quick report in from youz guyz on price you're paid for fresh cup rubber today?

[cobbler]

Can I get a quick report in from youz guyz on price you're paid for fresh cup rubber today?

I think down here it's about 35baht per kilo.Ask James he'll know

I'm going outside to hang myself now

[cobbler]

I believe that the wife is in league with the population of Issan to drive me insane.

Last week when I saw the writing on the wall about falling rubber prices. Wife went to this alleged co op meeting, came home with no real answers, but they will guarantee 100 Baht for grades 1,2 and 3, but you can only sell 300 kilos.

Better than nothing, so off with wife to see the guy who runs the show. Yes 100 Baht, but your rubber is grade 5 so only 70 Baht. I am a bit taken aback as we have no rubber with us and we have been selling for 3 years now and it has always been grades 1, 2 or 3.

Wife is translating and I am not only confused, but getting a bit pissed off. I say to her I thought they had an auction. Yes they do and that's why you have to wait for the money.

So why is this guy offering 70 Baht, because our rubber is grade 5. Round and round it goes and I can make no sense of it.

Today stop in at the Government buyers, they buy on Wednesday and ask if the Government has set a minimum price, as I had read they were going to do.

No, same as usual, bring your rubber and at the end of the day they pay as per auction price in the south minus cost, but if you come on Sunday you will get 90 Baht for RSS 1, 2 and 3. Why, different Government buyer, which Government buyer, don't know. If you don't know, how do you know the price. Someone said they pay 90 Baht.

!0 minutes ago Ex sub Gov comes round and says that the village up the road is having a rubber auction on Saturday and the price will be 90 Baht. How do you know what price the auction will get, my brother runs the auction and he says the price will be 90 Baht.

Strange auction, will just have to attend all 3 and see what the real price is. Trouble being once you unload your rubber it gets mixed with all the others, so then when the real price comes in, it's too late, you can't get your rubber back Jim

Jim Sounds like they aren't telling you the whole storey.This 100 baht per kilo is only paid to the people who have a certain sheet made buy a certain machine.I asked my wife ''who has that machine?'' She told me ''only there mates''Get it now??

The rest of us just have to accept the lesser price.

Cheers Cobbler

[jamescollister]

Can I get a quick report in from youz guyz on price you're paid for fresh cup rubber today?

24 hour dry cup 35 Baht same day wet cup 28 Baht. That's local drive by prices.

Government buy tomorrow will see what the price is there.Hate the idea of selling cheap, but will probably sell some. Have a new teak out door patio going up and the builders need paid.

My new drinking spot, but at these prices I had better get used to Lao Kow. Jim

[kolohe]

I think it was about 42 here, just the other day.

[Mosha]

I think it was about 42 here, just the other day.

The buyer told us yesterday she was buying at 72 for mats, it's in freefall just now.

[cobbler]

Hey am I the only 1 who can't edit my comments ??

My wife has advised me to choose my words more carefully .So I thought I should follow her advise,But I can't edit,it wont let me.Anybody else having the same issue??

Edited August 14, 2012 by cobbler

[jamescollister]

I think it was about 42 here, just the other day.

The buyer told us yesterday she was buying at 72 for mats, it's in freefall just now.

Would seem that most of the private buyers round here have shut up shop until things settle.

Petty I have no money as this would be the time to buy and stock pile. Remember 2008 when you could not give rubber away. Went down to from memory 38 Baht RSS, within a year it was over 100 Baht, You need money to make money, that's why it's called capitalism. No capital and you can even sit at the table to play.

Time for me to get a few beers while my credit is still good at the corner shop. Jim

[cobbler]

I think it was about 42 here, just the other day.

The buyer told us yesterday she was buying at 72 for mats, it's in freefall just now.

Would seem that most of the private buyers round here have shut up shop until things settle.

Petty I have no money as this would be the time to buy and stock pile. Remember 2008 when you could not give rubber away. Went down to from memory 38 Baht RSS, within a year it was over 100 Baht, You need money to make money, that's why it's called capitalism. No capital and you can even sit at the table to play.

Time for me to get a few beers while my credit is still good at the corner shop. Jim

How long do you think before it gets better.Even just 85baht per kilo for sheet?

[jamescollister]

I think it was about 42 here, just the other day.

The buyer told us yesterday she was buying at 72 for mats, it's in freefall just now.

Would seem that most of the private buyers round here have shut up shop until things settle.

Petty I have no money as this would be the time to buy and stock pile. Remember 2008 when you could not give rubber away. Went down to from memory 38 Baht RSS, within a year it was over 100 Baht, You need money to make money, that's why it's called capitalism. No capital and you can even sit at the table to play.

Time for me to get a few beers while my credit is still good at the corner shop. Jim

How long do you think before it gets better.Even just 85baht per kilo for sheet?

Thinks will improve as soon as the great leaders of the west, get off their asses and do something other than talk. Or Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia really do get together with a unified approach.

Think that Bloomberg article said there well be 150,000 tonnes over supply this year and an under supply next year. So really if they can take a few 100,000 out of the system there is an under supply this year and the buyers will have to compete price wise to assure their supply.

Don't think I will hold my breath waiting for politicians to act in their nations best interest and not their own best interest.

Would hope once the Chinese start to buy for next years needs, all the others will jump in before the prices start to climb, which will mean the prices will climb on demand.

A few good numbers from the US, China or the EU will start up the speculators, I hope.

Should be back up to a low price in a month or 2, but the 120 Baht plus mid late next year, if the whole system has not gone into melt down re 2008. Jim

[Mosha]

Hey am I the only 1 who can't edit my comments ??

My wife has advised me to choose my words more carefully .So I thought I should follow her advise,But I can't edit,it wont let me.Anybody else having the same issue??

Mine is more blunt with me. Told her to keep an eye on what the idiot box is saying about rubber.

Edited August 14, 2012 by Mosha

[Mosha]

Unfortunately politicians with their hot air just add to global warming Jim. Still if all the buyers stop buying. it may make those that make the decisions get off their <deleted>.

[jamescollister]

In every gloomy moment, a little light must shine.

Wife just got home from town, spending money we don't have, telling me of the days events and things we need from Home Hub.

At the end of the de brief she says, oh buy the way some businessmen from Lao are coming tomorrow. They want to lease or set up buying on part of the factory. They will be exporting to Vietnam.

Now I know the end buyer as he contacted me earlier this year looking to buy 40 tons a month.

Well outside my money capabilities and I have no idea how to export. They were buying in Burriram and thought they would save on transport and rubber costs closer to the Chong Mek border crossing.

We have the only legal rubber company buying and processing license in the district.

Wife says how much should we charge, I said take any deal they offer and once we learn how we can take over.

There is always hope and a busy factory attracts more sellers and bigger buyers.

May not have to take up Lao Kow after all. Jim

[Mosha]

OT but Lao Kow reminds me of a true story, and heck we need a laugh just now. We went on a shell fish gathering trip. The locals bought 3 bottles for the trip home, and it started to piss it down. So I joined in just for medicinal purposes.. Next morning.

Me "Good morning darling"

Her :"Hmmph" and a black look

Me "What's the matter?"

Silence, and it lasted 6 hours

Eventually after some coaxing, we had had an argument, and it ended up with me asking for a divorce. I was appalled, I still after 9 years, have no memory of that day. Other than setting off on the trip. We had been married 2 weeks. How she forgave me I don't know, but I've stayed well clear of that stuff since.

[jamescollister]

OT but Lao Kow reminds me of a true story, and heck we need a laugh just now. We went on a shell fish gathering trip. The locals bought 3 bottles for the trip home, and it started to piss it down. So I joined in just for medicinal purposes.. Next morning.

Me "Good morning darling"

Her :"Hmmph" and a black look

Me "What's the matter?"

Silence, and it lasted 6 hours

Eventually after some coaxing, we had had an argument, and it ended up with me asking for a divorce. I was appalled, I still after 9 years, have no memory of that day. Other than setting off on the trip. We had been married 2 weeks. How she forgave me I don't know, but I've stayed well clear of that stuff since.

It has to rate as one of the worlds worst drinks, have a shot now and then to be polite at weddings etc.

Next door had a 3 day party not long ago and had more than a few shots with beer as a chaser. Could still taste and smell it days later.

Probably better to drink paint stripper. Jim

[jamescollister]

Just to top of an interesting day, wife says I need to talk to you we have a problem. Must be serious as she has waited until the household has gone to sleep.

BIL last week saw a family that taps for us in a cup rubber buyers place. He drives by and comes back a hour later, what were they doing here. Selling cup rubber is the reply.

Now this is a family that lives in the factory, husband, wife, 2 kids, brother who lives in our house most of the time father and MIL.

Wife was going to fire them last month, but had a talk with them and all was OK. I have wanted to get rid of the father from day one as he just sits unless I tell him do do something. For this he gets 3000 month. Brother I never wanted back as he was done for taking yabba and possession in the dry season, 2 months in the nick. Being ex cop and screw, never trust a junkie.

I have always thought the girl [very cute ] was too smart for her own good, you know the type, go to the factory and no one is there, but her. Next she comes out not with the usual rubber tapper attire, but tight little white shorts and a singlet, no bra.

How they were stealing rubber I am not sure, as I have kept tabs on the numbers, but think what they were doing is pouring the latex into the barrel and leaving a bit in the cup. Later collecting the dry bit in the cup when no one was around. Cunning and you lean something everyday.

Now we will be firing the whole family tomorrow and will sell their rubber share at the Government buy. Then they are gone same day out.

What pisses me of must, is we got this family from the south, over a year ago. They were ex locals from the next town. They were broke and we gave them bags of rice, a place to live and loaned them money and motorbikes to get by. They as a family were pulling in over 40,000 Baht a month in the good times, yet they had to steal and we are talking a few 1000 Baht worth of rubber,

They were good tappers and if they needed extra, I would have helped out. Now they will be back to rice farming on 20 rai and living in a hut with no power or running water. Jim

[cobbler]

Just to top of an interesting day, wife says I need to talk to you we have a problem. Must be serious as she has waited until the household has gone to sleep.

BIL last week saw a family that taps for us in a cup rubber buyers place. He drives by and comes back a hour later, what were they doing here. Selling cup rubber is the reply.

Now this is a family that lives in the factory, husband, wife, 2 kids, brother who lives in our house most of the time father and MIL.

Wife was going to fire them last month, but had a talk with them and all was OK. I have wanted to get rid of the father from day one as he just sits unless I tell him do do something. For this he gets 3000 month. Brother I never wanted back as he was done for taking yabba and possession in the dry season, 2 months in the nick. Being ex cop and screw, never trust a junkie.

I have always thought the girl [very cute ] was too smart for her own good, you know the type, go to the factory and no one is there, but her. Next she comes out not with the usual rubber tapper attire, but tight little white shorts and a singlet, no bra.

How they were stealing rubber I am not sure, as I have kept tabs on the numbers, but think what they were doing is pouring the latex into the barrel and leaving a bit in the cup. Later collecting the dry bit in the cup when no one was around. Cunning and you lean something everyday.

Now we will be firing the whole family tomorrow and will sell their rubber share at the Government buy. Then they are gone same day out.

What pisses me of must, is we got this family from the south, over a year ago. They were ex locals from the next town. They were broke and we gave them bags of rice, a place to live and loaned them money and motorbikes to get by. They as a family were pulling in over 40,000 Baht a month in the good times, yet they had to steal and we are talking a few 1000 Baht worth of rubber,

They were good tappers and if they needed extra, I would have helped out. Now they will be back to rice farming on 20 rai and living in a hut with no power or running water. Jim

Mate at 3AM it's very easy to be ripping you off while you are sleeping.Sometimes I walk around in the dark in the middle of the night .Then never tell them I was there.This is an easy way to be sure,and you can always trust your own eyes.

Not to be outdone.

On our mountain farm,not long after we 1st bought it,I was very suspicious of the little fagot with his SK(sex kitten) wife.Couldn't catch them though.However ,after searching for a hiding spot ,I found perfect holes in the side of the mountain covered by grass.Perfect to put 4liter oil containers in.So after that I just went there 6AM ,4AM ,any time.He obviously felt the pressure as 1 morning I went there and they were both gone.My wife and I spent many hours getting the yang from the mountain.I learned that day that mountain workers definately earn every baht they get.

Funny thing was ,when we told my wife's cousin what was happening,he looked at us and said.''Ton Suway,mia suway,Sami tumpui.which means trees beautiful,wife beautiful,make husband into fertiliza .I nearny pissed myself laughing.

Edited August 14, 2012 by cobbler

[cdmtdm]

fellas look for a commodity rally very soon ...copper and gold esp coming off 3 month lows ..... these rubber prices are very short term IMO ...

[thaiguzzi]

Just sold wet cup, price yesterday 40.00 baht per kilo. Government auction, Ampur Ban Dung, Udon Thani province. My tappers are pissed off.

Regards,

Mike.

[glennb6]

cdm,

AU floating around 1600 +/-20 for the past many months and now doesn't sound like it's coming off anywhere yet, unfortunately.

All us rubberheads best hope we're not heading for a repeat of 2008 or today WILL be the good ol'days.

Todays Buengkan factory price for keeyang 66b drc, which should be 35.5 to 36.25 per kg wet. Buying at 32-33 and another small local shop had 30 on their sign this morning.

[cdmtdm]

cdm,

AU floating around 1600 +/-20 for the past many months and now doesn't sound like it's coming off anywhere yet, unfortunately.

All us rubberheads best hope we're not heading for a repeat of 2008 or today WILL be the good ol'days.

Todays Buengkan factory price for keeyang 66b drc, which should be 35.5 to 36.25 per kg wet. Buying at 32-33 and another small local shop had 30 on their sign this morning.

Hard to believe we are 5 years into this mess already and not much has changed except for the price of some commodities ... see attached quote ..

Happy Birthday to the Global FInancial Crisis (GFC). Born on August 17th 2007 5 years on and still going strong. Since then Greece Spain Portugal Italy on the verge of bankruptcy. 13 million homes in United States have been foreclosed and millions have lost everything. The biggest restribution of wealth the world has ever seen. Gold was $668 and Silver was $11.69 on that day.

as for rubber prices , i still believe the prices will quickly correct running upto the end of the year along with oil , copper and gold ( i am not a gold buff by the way) the bigger concern is how do you keep your relationship with the tappers going , whilst the prices are rock bottom ....

[thaiguzzi]

Correction. Mrs got back at lunchtime from the auction, with the bills and money/dosh/wonga. Price was 40.05 ! for wet cup.

Regards,

Mike.

[jamescollister]

Well they day went well in someways, Got up early as I had forgot it was border run time.

Went to the factory on the bike, wife FIL and BIL already there. The family to be fired were at work processing the nights sheet. Now I have had a bad nights sleep over these not nice people, stealing rubber. I want them out now, tell the wife get them together so I can show them the road. Not to be, wife gives me the please let us do it the Issan way, we are not in OZ anymore. As always I give in and mount the bike for my border run, saying as I leave they better be gone when I get back,

Get back and there they sit, plus 4 other pickups and a big pile of cup rubber.

Don't get upset the wife says, they have been fired and are just waiting for their share of the rubber money.

We sold only their rubber to the Government 75 Baht a kilo, So now I am 3 tappers and 2 sometime workers do nothings down. OK they are out and I am happy.

Next I see all the cup rubber, what's this all about and who are all these people.

Oh the Lao guy came and these people heard he was a buyer, how they knew is beyond me as I only heard he was coming last night,

What did he say, nothing said he was busy and would return next week and talk about a deal. Meaning he is the buyer not the boss and has to return for further instruction,

So what's all the rubber doing here, Lao guy thought it was cheap and bought it, he will come and get it next week when he comes back with a proposal. Very trusting of him, there must be about 2000 kilos worth,

I had to come home to take care of the kids, so full story has not come out yet, but word must travel fast, as a bulk sheet buyer from Det Udom phoned up offering 85 Baht a kilo for RSS.

Don't know whether we are winning or losing, but things are certainly moving, will keep my fingers crossed. Jim

[cobbler]

Well they day went well in someways, Got up early as I had forgot it was border run time.

Went to the factory on the bike, wife FIL and BIL already there. The family to be fired were at work processing the nights sheet. Now I have had a bad nights sleep over these not nice people, stealing rubber. I want them out now, tell the wife get them together so I can show them the road. Not to be, wife gives me the please let us do it the Issan way, we are not in OZ anymore. As always I give in and mount the bike for my border run, saying as I leave they better be gone when I get back,

Get back and there they sit, plus 4 other pickups and a big pile of cup rubber.

Don't get upset the wife says, they have been fired and are just waiting for their share of the rubber money.

We sold only their rubber to the Government 75 Baht a kilo, So now I am 3 tappers and 2 sometime workers do nothings down. OK they are out and I am happy.

Next I see all the cup rubber, what's this all about and who are all these people.

Oh the Lao guy came and these people heard he was a buyer, how they knew is beyond me as I only heard he was coming last night,

What did he say, nothing said he was busy and would return next week and talk about a deal. Meaning he is the buyer not the boss and has to return for further instruction,

So what's all the rubber doing here, Lao guy thought it was cheap and bought it, he will come and get it next week when he comes back with a proposal. Very trusting of him, there must be about 2000 kilos worth,

I had to come home to take care of the kids, so full story has not come out yet, but word must travel fast, as a bulk sheet buyer from Det Udom phoned up offering 85 Baht a kilo for RSS.

Don't know whether we are winning or losing, but things are certainly moving, will keep my fingers crossed. Jim

Is that 85baht per kilo ,a man from local gov buyer.If so ,he will turn around and sell it to another gov for 100baht per kilo.Making 15baht per kilo for his own blank.This is the time for lots of blank stuff,with blank money.

They wouldnt give you 100 baht per kilo ,coz they know they can make that money for there blank blank.My wife told me to be polite

Edited August 15, 2012 by cobbler

[Mosha]

^^

[Mosha]

Now I can't edit my posts

OK 2 questions. If the local buyers are not buying, how long will unsmoked mats keep?, And is there an idiots guide to the smoking process please?