Rubber Trees

[fezzy]

Looks like we will break our record of least amount of taps per fortnight, tomorrow. 4 !!!

I can beat that. We haven't even opened ours yet . Rains too scarce

Edited July 17, 2013 by fezzy

[scotbeve]

Looks like we will break our record of least amount of taps per fortnight, tomorrow. 4 !!!

I can beat that. We haven't even opened ours yet . Rains too scarce

Fezzy,

Same here in Mae Ai. Not enough rain - will let the trees stay idle until enough rain has dropped. Re-thought our "profit margin" with our (approx.) 8,000 trees. Must work for another year or so and upon retirement, the lifestyle will have to go down a notch or 2. Still have the teak plantations and other investments bringing in a "supplement" income. Eggs are not being carried in one basket. A long time ago I had advised other farmers here of this.

Definitely going to blow a load of money on 4 or 5 deep bore wells this year...... Farq!

[Hunter s somtam]

Looks like we will break our record of least amount of taps per fortnight, tomorrow. 4 !!!

I can beat that. We haven't even opened ours yet . Rains too scarce

Fezzy,

Same here in Mae Ai. Not enough rain - will let the trees stay idle until enough rain has dropped. Re-thought our "profit margin" with our (approx.) 8,000 trees. Must work for another year or so and upon retirement, the lifestyle will have to go down a notch or 2. Still have the teak plantations and other investments bringing in a "supplement" income. Eggs are not being carried in one basket. A long time ago I had advised other farmers here of this.

Definitely going to blow a load of money on 4 or 5 deep bore wells this year...... Farq!

where are you guys ,Scott and Mosha? must be pretty dry round there,i hope you get some soon ,where not far from khon kaen and have good rains but my mate went in Mahasarakam yesterday which is not far and he said its dry. How old are your teak trees Scott and how old do they have to be to sell?

[scotbeve]

Looks like we will break our record of least amount of taps per fortnight, tomorrow. 4 !!!

I can beat that. We haven't even opened ours yet . Rains too scarce

Fezzy,

Same here in Mae Ai. Not enough rain - will let the trees stay idle until enough rain has dropped. Re-thought our "profit margin" with our (approx.) 8,000 trees. Must work for another year or so and upon retirement, the lifestyle will have to go down a notch or 2. Still have the teak plantations and other investments bringing in a "supplement" income. Eggs are not being carried in one basket. A long time ago I had advised other farmers here of this.

Definitely going to blow a load of money on 4 or 5 deep bore wells this year...... Farq!

where are you guys ,Scott and Mosha? must be pretty dry round there,i hope you get some soon ,where not far from khon kaen and have good rains but my mate went in Mahasarakam yesterday which is not far and he said its dry. How old are your teak trees Scott and how old do they have to be to sell?

Hi Somtam,

Our plantations are in the upper north - Mae Ai, Chiang Mai. Very strange weather this year, dry, yes. There was a time when one could set one's watch by the weather after Songkran. Time to call in the drill rigs!

"Tectona Grandis Linn" or golden teak is a long term project.... The youngest a golden teak tree can be "mature" is 23 (some say 25 ...) years old. There are many variables involved for classifying "good" or "bad" teak. We're actually selling our trees (and the land). See ad # 150365 or # 150363 here on ThaiVisa classifieds.

[cobbler]

Hmmm worst price ever eh????

Well if you dont want to shat your pants then dont read the rest of this post.

My wife has family who drive through laos regularly to import from China to thai.

They saw miles and miles of rubber trees nearlly ready to open.So they asked about it all.Story is this.Vietnam have leased 5million rai from Laos.filled it all with rubber trees.Will open them next year.can tap cheaper than Thai.

Have you shat yet.?If not then try this .Have more trees coming after that too.

Not to scare u at all but u work out how much this will flood the rubber market !

Thai government are aware of this but not talking about it.I can understand why.oooòoo

Have fun and CHORK DEE

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Edited July 18, 2013 by cobbler

[fezzy]

I'm just northwest of Sukhothai and I too will be playing the waiting game for the rain this year. We too will be drilling bores this year and have been reading the borehole forum .Oh well, small cost for long time investment and regular watering, even if the rubber price goes to poo the land ours is on is highly sort after. Oh well pray for rain.

Edited July 18, 2013 by fezzy

[scotbeve]

Hi all,

Yep, as per Cobbler's above comment ( http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/467163-rubber-trees/page-80#entry6624621 ) , it looks like a really good idea to "re-think" your balance books and futures predictions. I'm using the (recent) historical low price for kee yang in our area. That's 32 baht/50% wet cup. USS - if we do it, possibly next year.... I'm thinking 42 - 45 baht / <5% moisture kg. and pretty good quality at that... As I said a bit earlier in this thread (a few days ago), gotta bring down the lifestyle a notch or 2.....

Remember it wasn't too long ago where the USS & RSS (and the hoarders causing the low) price was as low as 18 & 25 baht respectively....

[cobbler]

Think we can probably spare 30mm of rain per fortnite.As we hsve plenty here in Bangsaphan Prachuapkirrikan.So I will send 30mm per fortnite up your areas.

Cheers Cobbler

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[Mosha]

Been up since 2:30. Downstairs is flooded and it's still pissing down

[scotbeve]

Think we can probably spare 30mm of rain per fortnite.As we hsve plenty here in Bangsaphan Prachuapkirrikan.So I will send 30mm per fortnite up your areas.

Cheers Cobbler

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Thanks Cobbler!!

[cobbler]

Your welcome.Im sure Mr Mosha can spare the same as me if u ask politely.

For sure when he said record for least amount of taps,he was refering to ,TOO MUCH BLOODY RAIN.

Right Mr Mosha?

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[Mosha]

Spot on. Took this at 2:45 from the balcony behind the house.

[kolohe]

Spot on. Took this at 2:45 from the balcony behind the house.

Holy waterfront property Batman!

[David48]

Spot on. Took this at 2:45 from the balcony behind the house.

Mosha, I hope things don't get washed away.

Are you receiving above season rains?

.

[David48]

Hi Guys ... I'm not a Rubber Man ... my gf has other Farming Interests.

But I do invest in the Thai SET ... their Stock Exchange.

As part of that research I came across this information ...

Rubber Poised for Record Glut as Shippers End Curbs ...

Rubber is headed for the biggest glut on record, prolonging the bear market that began in April, as supply exceeds demand for a third year and Southeast Asian exporters ended curbs on shipments.

The surplus will expand 57 percent to 490,000 metric tons this year, enough to meet U.S. demand for six months, according to RCMA Commodities Asia Group, the Singapore-based company that has traded rubber for nine decades. Futures in Tokyo, a global benchmark, will drop at least another 5.8 percent to 225 yen a kilogram ($2,369 a ton) by the end of December, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Five anticipate 200 yen, a price last seen in 2009.

Growing Cycle

Rubber production is expanding as trees planted from 2006 to 2008 become mature enough for tapping this year, said Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. Rubber rallied 23 percent in Tokyo in 2006 and 2007, encouraging more planting. Futures doubled in 2009.

Here

I know that the above news isn't positive, though it might be helpful to know what's happen longer term in the market.

.

[Mosha]

Spot on. Took this at 2:45 from the balcony behind the house.

Mosha, I hope things don't get washed away.

Are you receiving above season rains?

.

Locals are saying it was the wettest day in a generation.

Edited July 20, 2013 by Mosha

[cobbler]

Hi Mosha..I am about 1 hour north of you.I have looked south many times over th last couple of years and watched the lightning in the blackness,and said to my wife.Mosha has got to be getting that.Haha and you did

Cheers Cobbper

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[Mosha]

Hard to believe it can get any higher. We are in a pan handle draining at least 60 sq mile. SIL next door says she has seen it about 3' higher.

[cobbler]

Hey mate u got th right idea puting the palm oil trees there.They will do well. Geng mark

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[Mosha]

That tree is the biggest. My shits top notch 555

[cobbler]

Dont worry.The pics of rubber trees I posted were not ours either 555

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[scotbeve]

Spot on. Took this at 2:45 from the balcony behind the house.

DAMN!!!! Sorry to see this. Hope you can salvage some of your stuff / farms....

[scotbeve]

Hi Guys ... I'm not a Rubber Man ... my gf has other Farming Interests.

But I do invest in the Thai SET ... their Stock Exchange.

As part of that research I came across this information ...

Rubber Poised for Record Glut as Shippers End Curbs ...

Rubber is headed for the biggest glut on record, prolonging the bear market that began in April, as supply exceeds demand for a third year and Southeast Asian exporters ended curbs on shipments.

The surplus will expand 57 percent to 490,000 metric tons this year, enough to meet U.S. demand for six months, according to RCMA Commodities Asia Group, the Singapore-based company that has traded rubber for nine decades. Futures in Tokyo, a global benchmark, will drop at least another 5.8 percent to 225 yen a kilogram ($2,369 a ton) by the end of December, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Five anticipate 200 yen, a price last seen in 2009.

Growing Cycle

Rubber production is expanding as trees planted from 2006 to 2008 become mature enough for tapping this year, said Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. Rubber rallied 23 percent in Tokyo in 2006 and 2007, encouraging more planting. Futures doubled in 2009.

Here

I know that the above news isn't positive, though it might be helpful to know what's happen longer term in the market.

.

Need to buy thousands of nail or spike strips for the roads throughout the globe..... MORE TIRES!!!!!

[fezzy]

 

Rubber is headed for the biggest glut on record, prolonging the bear market that began in April, as supply exceeds demand for a third year and Southeast Asian exporters ended curbs on shipments.

 

The surplus will expand 57 percent to 490,000 metric tons this year, enough to meet U.S. demand for six months, according to RCMA Commodities Asia Group, the Singapore-based company that has traded rubber for nine decades. Futures in Tokyo, a global benchmark, will drop at least another 5.8 percent to 225 yen a kilogram ($2,369 a ton) by the end of December, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Five anticipate 200 yen, a price last seen in 2009.

 

Growing Cycle

Rubber production is expanding as trees planted from 2006 to 2008 become mature enough for tapping this year, said Kona Haque, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London. Rubber rallied 23 percent in Tokyo in 2006 and 2007, encouraging more planting. Futures doubled in 2009.

Here

 

Cheers for the info , Ill make sure my purse strings are I pulled firm for awhile

[David48]

Spot on. Took this at 2:45 from the balcony behind the house.

Mosha, I hope things don't get washed away.

Are you receiving above season rains?.

Locals are saying it was the wettest day in a generation.

Mate ... excuse my pun ... but in the end ... how did things wash up for you?

I hope everything was saved, including your crop.

.

[cobbler]

There was talk on thai news last night rubber bieng 60 per kilo but oil is due to rise so should increase prices.Hmmm dont hold your breath.Not surprised if next year it drops further.60 per kilo will make it difficult for some farms with less output to keep a worker.40% will just not enough for them to survive on.

Time will tell.Brest of luck to all in this difficult time.

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[gregj69]

There was talk on thai news last night rubber bieng 60 per kilo but oil is due to rise so should increase prices.Hmmm dont hold your breath.Not surprised if next year it drops further.60 per kilo will make it difficult for some farms with less output to keep a worker.40% will just not enough for them to survive on.

Time will tell.Brest of luck to all in this difficult time.

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Did it mention what type of rubber? RSS, USS, Fresh? Maybe Kee Yang! Just about to buy another 60 rai but not feeling very confident about the income.

Greg

[cobbler]

This is for sheet..Tread carefully in this time.If you are in a lower rainfall area and prices are low .You may not be able to keep workers as not enough for them to survive on.

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[cobbler]

This is for sheet..Tread carefully in this time.If you are in a lower rainfall area and prices are low .You may not be able to keep workers as not enough for them to survive on.

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[gregj69]

This is for sheet..Tread carefully in this time.If you are in a lower rainfall area and prices are low .You may not be able to keep workers as not enough for them to survive on.

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The farm is in Loei so no worries with rain. The brother in law reckons he has got experienced tappers that will work for a flat rate of 500b a night. around 4000 trees so I figure 5 people tapping; him, his wife and 3 others. Planning on paying him around 20-25,000 a month to take care and look after it. I was looking at making sheet but it didn't seem to be worth it considering what we were getting for fresh yang. Mind you that was late last year. Any thoughts?

Greg