Pheu Thai Still Leading

[lannarebirth]

I agree but am not quite sure who the fringe elements would be. The PAD were the activists on the Yellow Dem side, but now have deserted them and want them to fail. Perhaps the army will create a new coloured force. I think as long as PT make no sudden moves towards an amnesty the PAD will stay mute.

The yellow shirts will come back in force when PTP start to change laws to whitewash Thaksin's crimes. That's what happened after the 2007 elections. They were quiet for a few months, but when PPP started trying to change laws, the PAD came out to protest. Don't assume that just because no one has been supporting them on the border disputes means that no one will support them against Thaksin.

You know what? I don't think it's just going to be only the Yellow Shirts next time, I think that great big apathetic middle class (some of whom will be PTP voters) are all going to come out. OK, maybe not all ,but people who never joined in anything before. Despots aren't cool.

[Netfan]

Here are the campaign promises that I have heard so far from Pheu Thai:

- 100 billion baht for villages and communities, debt moratorium, debt restructuring and credit cards for farmers.

- One million tablet PCs for students

- 20,000 baht/ton price subsidy for rice

- minimum wage increase to 300 baht/day

- 1,000 baht cash handout to the elderly

- large extension of mass transit routes with ten new train lines in Bangkok and a 20 baht flat rate fare

- energy credit cards for taxis, commuter vans and motorcycle taxis

- reduce corporate income tax rates from the current 30% down to 20% by 2013

- building a 20,000 rai city from reclaimed land on the Gulf of Thailand

Now all these proposals are certainly attractive for just about any Thai citizen. But the question I have to ask is: from what source will the revenue come from to pay for all this, including making up for the reduced corporate tax rates?

Can anyone point to a reference where Pheu Thai set out regarding how they would fund all these plans and even come close to balancing the budget equation? if the answer is massive sovereign debt, this could become far more dismal than Greece.

Most of their promises will forever be "being planned".

A few kids in a few selected schools might have their photos taken with cheap knockoff tablets.

The middle-men who control the rice trade so the farmers never get their fair share will get the subsidy price, it will never trickle down to the farmers. The middle-men will be required to hand back a good portion of their new-found profit.

Minimum wage will never be raised to 300 baht - workers will be told "coming soon, just wait". Yingluk will have her photo taken handing out a few 1,000 notes to a few selected little old folks, who will then have to hand it over to their headman when the cameras have left.

Mass transit extensions will be "planned". Some lucky land owners will probably get generous prices for future stations. Selection will depend on connections / loyalty.

Credit cards for taxis, vans, motorcycle taxis? what bank is going to issue those cards. "We tried" is what PTP will say. If the cards are somehow issued, you can bet the government will end up owning a whole lot of taxis, vans and motorcycles.

Corporate taxes will go down, but "donations" for projects will go up, those bakery boxes will have to get larger.

The new city will be called "Thaksintown" since it will be built on land bought from the family, of course at a fair price.

Picture say, Nigeria, or Panama under Noriega. What will those at the top care as long as they are getting theirs?

Maybe someone will come up with an idea for a new "privilage card" for wealthy tourists - it would be a sure hit!

Edited June 20, 2011 by Netfan

[geriatrickid]

I note the criticism of the Suan Dusit poll. Apparently, because some people do not agree with the results it is corrupted and false. Great logic. I am of the view that a non aligned university is able to take a sample and provide non-biased results. None of the critics has provided a viable reason as to why the results should be rejected. Not one example of flawed methodology. Suan Dusit used the largest sample size to date. That means the results will be more reliable, in the absence of a methodology or sampling error.

The poll actually provides some "bad" news for the PTP, that some people denouncing it don't quite grasp. As some have observed, PTP support was not as overwhelming in the North as expected. Although a strong number, it would have been expected to be 10-15 points higher. Even in the Northeast the take away is that the PTP may dominate, but the Democrats do have support. The South is overwhelmingly a Democrat stronghold. One would expect that on Phuket with a population of so many northern workers that this might have skewed the results by a few points. It did not. The deep south allegiances lie with the Democrats and this would suggest that a PTP government would have some issues dealing with the muslims should it win office.

Yes the poll is good news for PTP, but it isn't great news. As for those that are scurrying about criticizing the data, I suggest that they go and read the complete poll and the methodology. If you think it is an inaccurate poll, please explain why. Claiming that the wife's friend from the beauty salon said that last week she heard from the somtam salesman that they gave out a papaya for a vote in favour of one party is not a valid argument.

[Lite Beer]

A post containing nothing but propaganda has been deleted. Along with the replies quoting it.

Apologies to the legitimate replies.

[whybother]

I note the criticism of the Suan Dusit poll. Apparently, because some people do not agree with the results it is corrupted and false. Great logic. I am of the view that a non aligned university is able to take a sample and provide non-biased results. None of the critics has provided a viable reason as to why the results should be rejected. Not one example of flawed methodology. Suan Dusit used the largest sample size to date. That means the results will be more reliable, in the absence of a methodology or sampling error.

The poll actually provides some "bad" news for the PTP, that some people denouncing it don't quite grasp. As some have observed, PTP support was not as overwhelming in the North as expected. Although a strong number, it would have been expected to be 10-15 points higher. Even in the Northeast the take away is that the PTP may dominate, but the Democrats do have support. The South is overwhelmingly a Democrat stronghold. One would expect that on Phuket with a population of so many northern workers that this might have skewed the results by a few points. It did not. The deep south allegiances lie with the Democrats and this would suggest that a PTP government would have some issues dealing with the muslims should it win office.

Yes the poll is good news for PTP, but it isn't great news. As for those that are scurrying about criticizing the data, I suggest that they go and read the complete poll and the methodology. If you think it is an inaccurate poll, please explain why. Claiming that the wife's friend from the beauty salon said that last week she heard from the somtam salesman that they gave out a papaya for a vote in favour of one party is not a valid argument.

The only thing I question, is the percentage of undecided. Having such a low percentage of undecided (particularly with 30-50% undecided in other recent polls) seems quite unlikely to me.

[gymboy33]

I note the criticism of the Suan Dusit poll. Apparently, because some people do not agree with the results it is corrupted and false. Great logic. I am of the view that a non aligned university is able to take a sample and provide non-biased results. None of the critics has provided a viable reason as to why the results should be rejected. Not one example of flawed methodology. Suan Dusit used the largest sample size to date. That means the results will be more reliable, in the absence of a methodology or sampling error.

The poll actually provides some "bad" news for the PTP, that some people denouncing it don't quite grasp. As some have observed, PTP support was not as overwhelming in the North as expected. Although a strong number, it would have been expected to be 10-15 points higher. Even in the Northeast the take away is that the PTP may dominate, but the Democrats do have support. The South is overwhelmingly a Democrat stronghold. One would expect that on Phuket with a population of so many northern workers that this might have skewed the results by a few points. It did not. The deep south allegiances lie with the Democrats and this would suggest that a PTP government would have some issues dealing with the muslims should it win office.

Yes the poll is good news for PTP, but it isn't great news. As for those that are scurrying about criticizing the data, I suggest that they go and read the complete poll and the methodology. If you think it is an inaccurate poll, please explain why. Claiming that the wife's friend from the beauty salon said that last week she heard from the somtam salesman that they gave out a papaya for a vote in favour of one party is not a valid argument.

The only thing I question, is the percentage of undecided. Having such a low percentage of undecided (particularly with 30-50% undecided in other recent polls) seems quite unlikely to me.

4. On the low number of undecideds compared to previous polls, there is note at the end of the poll stating that if those polled gave the answer "undecided" ("ผู้ที่ยังไม่ตัดสินใจ"), "unsure/wavering on who to vote for" ("ผู้ที่ลังเลว่าจะเลือกใคร"), and those who said they "wouldn't say" ("ผู้ที่ไม่ยอมบอก"), that the person who was surveying then asked the person surveyed who they were voting for. The note says this was done to provide a clearer picture.

In polling parlance, these people are called 'leaners' (amongst other names). Ideally, the poll would have done two graphs: one including leaners and one that didn't. This would be useful to see the solid vote for each of the parties as well as who leaners were intending to vote for. Of course, by there very nature 'leaners' can be persuaded to change their vote so the Democrats still have some hope to reverse the gap…

http://asiancorrespo.../bangkokpundit/

[lungmi]

I note the criticism of the Suan Dusit poll. Apparently, because some people do not agree with the results it is corrupted and false. Great logic. I am of the view that a non aligned university is able to take a sample and provide non-biased results. None of the critics has provided a viable reason as to why the results should be rejected. Not one example of flawed methodology. Suan Dusit used the largest sample size to date. That means the results will be more reliable, in the absence of a methodology or sampling error.

The poll actually provides some "bad" news for the PTP, that some people denouncing it don't quite grasp. As some have observed, PTP support was not as overwhelming in the North as expected. Although a strong number, it would have been expected to be 10-15 points higher. Even in the Northeast the take away is that the PTP may dominate, but the Democrats do have support. The South is overwhelmingly a Democrat stronghold. One would expect that on Phuket with a population of so many northern workers that this might have skewed the results by a few points. It did not. The deep south allegiances lie with the Democrats and this would suggest that a PTP government would have some issues dealing with the muslims should it win office.

Yes the poll is good news for PTP, but it isn't great news. As for those that are scurrying about criticizing the data, I suggest that they go and read the complete poll and the methodology. If you think it is an inaccurate poll, please explain why. Claiming that the wife's friend from the beauty salon said that last week she heard from the somtam salesman that they gave out a papaya for a vote in favour of one party is not a valid argument.

I scientific poll is made by two basic factors.

1. Analysis of the social situation. (Where the interviewed people live (a slum, condo, quarter of the rich etc., what is there instruction, theire income and a lot of other factors). Then in proportion to the statistic results of this analysis the interviewers know how many people and where they have to ask.

Two in the villas of the rich, 10 there, 50 there, etc.)

2. Random execution of this analysis.

The minimum are 2000 people if the methodology is correct.

To ask 100 000 people for a poll in Thailand is unprofessional and explains already that the methodology is ready for the garbage pot.

Chulalongkorn University complained not long time ago, that they didn't have enough students for mathematics and physics.

[HerbalEd]

Fortunately ALL the media support the Dem's. If not, they'd have only 3.56 % nation wide.

Yep. All the media support the Dem's. That's why you never see Yingluck in the news.

You need to broaden your media sources. I very often see Yungluck in the news ... in fact, daily in multiple newspapers and on TV.

[HerbalEd]

Here are the campaign promises that I have heard so far from Pheu Thai:

- 100 billion baht for villages and communities, debt moratorium, debt restructuring and credit cards for farmers.

- One million tablet PCs for students

- 20,000 baht/ton price subsidy for rice

- minimum wage increase to 300 baht/day

- 1,000 baht cash handout to the elderly

- large extension of mass transit routes with ten new train lines in Bangkok and a 20 baht flat rate fare

- energy credit cards for taxis, commuter vans and motorcycle taxis

- reduce corporate income tax rates from the current 30% down to 20% by 2013

- building a 20,000 rai city from reclaimed land on the Gulf of Thailand

Now all these proposals are certainly attractive for just about any Thai citizen. But the question I have to ask is: from what source will the revenue come from to pay for all this, including making up for the reduced corporate tax rates?

Can anyone point to a reference where Pheu Thai set out regarding how they would fund all these plans and even come close to balancing the budget equation? if the answer is massive sovereign debt, this could become far more dismal than Greece.

Funding will not be a problem because very few of these promises will be kept.

[whybother]

Fortunately ALL the media support the Dem's. If not, they'd have only 3.56 % nation wide.

Yep. All the media support the Dem's. That's why you never see Yingluck in the news.

You need to broaden your media sources. I very often see Yungluck in the news ... in fact, daily in multiple newspapers and on TV.

sorry ... forgot the sarcasm emoticon. Will this one do?

[geriatrickid]

I scientific poll is made by two basic factors.

1. Analysis of the social situation. (Where the interviewed people live (a slum, condo, quarter of the rich etc., what is there instruction, theire income and a lot of other factors). Then in proportion to the statistic results of this analysis the interviewers know how many people and where they have to ask.

Two in the villas of the rich, 10 there, 50 there, etc.)

2. Random execution of this analysis.

The minimum are 2000 people if the methodology is correct.

To ask 100 000 people for a poll in Thailand is unprofessional and explains already that the methodology is ready for the garbage pot.

Chulalongkorn University complained not long time ago, that they didn't have enough students for mathematics and physics.

Your argument is nonsensical. Did you read the poll methodology? If so please tell me where? If you have not read the methodology then how can you question it?

One thing that is typical of the Dusit polls is that it uses university students that are trained and who ask the question in person. Other polls use call centers with multiple questions. The Dusit poll asked only one question. There is some constructive criticism offered by a Bangkok newspaper that I suggest you read. It is not so much the poll result itself, but the trend it shows. I disagree with the Dusit northern trend conclusion, but others agree. However, at its core, the poll is compatible with the other polls and shows the same trends.

[otherstuff1957]

I suspect that the overall trend of the polls are correct. However, I do wonder about the results for Bangkok. Many people who work in Bangkok will vote upcountry. Do the pollsters ask people if they vote in Bangkok? Or do they just ask random people the questions and not bother to verify if they are local voters or even likely voters. On July 3, PT will almost certainly win more votes than any other party - possibly even a majority. But I think that their Bangkok numbers will be lower than these polls show and their Northern/Northeaster numbers will be higher. After the poll, it will be up to them as to whether they are more interested in running the country or in rehabilitating Thaksin.

[Ricardo]

I note the criticism of the Suan Dusit poll. Apparently, because some people do not agree with the results it is corrupted and false. Great logic. I am of the view that a non aligned university is able to take a sample and provide non-biased results. None of the critics has provided a viable reason as to why the results should be rejected. Not one example of flawed methodology. Suan Dusit used the largest sample size to date. That means the results will be more reliable, in the absence of a methodology or sampling error.

The poll actually provides some "bad" news for the PTP, that some people denouncing it don't quite grasp. As some have observed, PTP support was not as overwhelming in the North as expected. Although a strong number, it would have been expected to be 10-15 points higher. Even in the Northeast the take away is that the PTP may dominate, but the Democrats do have support. The South is overwhelmingly a Democrat stronghold. One would expect that on Phuket with a population of so many northern workers that this might have skewed the results by a few points. It did not. The deep south allegiances lie with the Democrats and this would suggest that a PTP government would have some issues dealing with the muslims should it win office.

Yes the poll is good news for PTP, but it isn't great news. As for those that are scurrying about criticizing the data, I suggest that they go and read the complete poll and the methodology. If you think it is an inaccurate poll, please explain why. Claiming that the wife's friend from the beauty salon said that last week she heard from the somtam salesman that they gave out a papaya for a vote in favour of one party is not a valid argument.

Thanks for (what I would regard as) a balanced view of the Suan-Dusit poll-results.

That PTP can only get 60% support in the Shinawatras' home-region, even after visits/rallies from Ms Yingluck, must be worrying them.

I believe that's actually down on the previous election ? I have long thought that support for TRT/PPP/PTP is gradually fading, especially as factions of the original pre-election TRT-coalition depart, and other governments show that they too can pass measures which help the poor.

Slogans like 'Thaksin Thinks, Pheu Thai Acts" are great for reminding voters of their 'glory days' a decade ago, but the reality is that the global economic-climate has changed, and Thailand is already doing amazingly-well compared to most of the rest of the world. So simply making a slew of extravagant election-promises, which may later prove to be hedged-with-caveats or simply forgotten/undeliverable, may gain short-term support but deliver longer-term disillusion.

[whybother]

The latest ABAC poll has 30% undecided. A "slight" increase to that shown in this thread.

Edited June 22, 2011 by whybother

[whybother]

ABAC Poll finds Pheu Thai to win 55 party-list seats, Democrats 49, Bhum Jai Thai 8 but says 8 million voters still undecided /TAN_Network