Thailand Election: 10 Days To Go; Don't Blink

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GENERAL ELECTION

10 days to go; don't blink

By The Nation

While most popularity polls have all but ruled out a close race, a closer look at each constituency may give a little different perspective on the July 3 general election. Here are what the |Nation Group political reporters and our provincial writers have come up with after dissecting the contest constituency-by-constituency, taking into account past records, canvassing networks, each individual's appeal, among other key factors. Although this is not an opinion poll, our analytical approach was intended to augment your insight into Judgement Day

There are only 10 days left before the July 3 national poll and it is still a race between the two largest political parties - Pheu Thai and the Democrats.

They are expected to win up to 380 House seats combined while the remaining 120 seats are likely to be shared among six parties - Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, Palang Chon, Matubhum and Rak Thailand.

Pheu Thai still enjoys strong support since Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ex-premier Thaksin, was declared the party's candidate to be prime minister. This is coupled with the party's renewed populist policies aimed at many categories of voters - farmers, parents, new graduates and workers.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva also is trying to woo specific groups of voters with the party's own populist platform. And today, the Democrats will focus on last year's unrest and rioting - particularly "the burning of the city" - at CentralWorld, which was a target of arson attacks after the red shirts' street protest was dispersed on May 19 last year.

Our survey of the constituencies all over the country shows that Pheu Thai candidates are still leading in all regions, except the South, although the party is unlikely to score a landslide victory.

In Bangkok, the 33 constituencies are likely to be split between Pheu Thai and the Democrats. In the latest round of surveys, Pheu Thai seemed likely to bag 16 seats and the Democrats 12 seats, with neck-and-neck competition between the two parties for the six remaining seats.

Pheu Thai is expected to take Constituencies 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 23, 25, 26 and 29. The Democrats are likely to pull ahead in Constituencies 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 27, 30, 31, 32 and 33. Tight competition is expected in Constituencies 5, 18, 20, 24, 28 and 32.

CENTRAL, NORTH, ISAAN

The two parties also are expected to dominate the 96 constituencies in the Central region's 26 provinces although parties like Bhum Jai Thai and Chart Thai Pattana are likely to share large chunks of seats and could even eat into the seats won by the larger parties' MPs from the 2007 poll.

In the election four years ago, the Democrats could perform well in Chon Buri, Rayong, Chanthaburi and Phetchaburi, where it could snare all the seats up for grabs in those provinces. However, with a stronger red-shirt movement in those provinces and the birth of a provincial party like Palang Chon in Chon Buri, the Democrat candidates are having a hard time trying to beat their competitors.

In the North, which has 67 seats from 16 provinces up for grabs, Pheu Thai is likely to dominate due to its strong support base and the popularity of its former MPs. However, the Democrats still have a chance to win House seats in the northern provinces where the red shirts' influence is not strong and where the Democrats can still count on the backing of loyal supporters. Parties like Chart Thai Pattana and Chart Pattana Puea Pandin are likely to secure some seats in this region.

The Northeast, with 126 House seats from 20 provinces, has the largest number of MP seats. Pheu Thai has "owned" this region since 2001, when the party was known as Thai Rak Thai.

Although many ex-MPs from its previous incarnation - the now-disbanded People Power Party - are now with Bhum Jai Thai, Pheu Thai still enjoys support from a strong network of red shirts. However, Pheu Thai is unlikely to sweep Isaan as the Democrats and Bhum Jai Thai are expected to gain their share of seats.

SOUTH

In the South, the Democrats have a good chance of monopolising almost all of the 53 constituencies in 14 provinces. The country's oldest party is likely to prevail in 48 out of the 53 constituencies, with the rest expected to be divided among Matubhum, Chart Thai Pattana, Pheu Thai and Bhum Jai Thai.

As for the party-list election, with 125 seats at stake, it is estimated that a party has to attract at least 240,000 votes to get a seat from this system. This Nation Group estimate assumes that about 70 per cent (or 33.1 million) of the 47.3 million eligible voters will actually go to the polls, as well as 1.5 million spoiled ballots and 1.5 million "no vote" ballots.

In all, Pheu Thai is expected to acquire 55-60 House seats from proportionate voting, the Democrats 40-45 seats, Bhum Jai Thai 8-10, Chart Thai Pattana 5-7, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin 3-5, Rak Thailand 2-3, and Matubhum and Palang Chon one each.

-- The Nation 2011-06-23

[Buchholz]

If the Pheu Thai Party actually does end up with 60 Party-list MP's, I count no fewer than 8 active Red Shirt Leaders being selected for the next Parliament.

1. Suspected terrorist out on bail Red Shirt Leader Jatuporn

2. Suspected terrorist out on bail Red Shirt Leader Nattawut

3. Indicted Red Shirt Leader Apiwan

4. Suspected terrorist out on bail Red Shirt Leader Weng

5. Suspected terrorist out on bail Red Shirt Leader Wiputhalaeng

6. Long-time fugitive and Chulalongkorn Hospital Raiding Boss and Red Shirt Leader Payap

7. Suspected terrorist out on bail Red Shirt Leader Kokaew

8. Indicted Red Shirt Leader (legally changed given name) Shinawat

9. It would also provide an MP seat for fugitive Red Shirt Leader Arisaman's wife, Rapiphan

10. Also, the infamous Thaksin bribery Pastry-box lawyer, Pichit, would become an MP.

.

Edited June 23, 2011 by Buchholz

[WinnieTheKhwai]

Hmmm.. where have I seen that type of posting before...

Back on topic pls?

Interesting analysis by The Nation. Makes for a different approach than just rely on a survey. Will be even more interesting to compare against the poll results end of next week.

[lungmi]

I fought all the polls before for methodology.

This one seems to be a good poll investigation., I don"t know the correct methodology for this poll, but as poll investigator longtime ago in Germany I think from my belly

this poll goes in the way of correct tendancy.