Thai Democrats Struggle In 'Red Shirt' Heartland

[webfact]

Thai Democrats struggle in 'Red Shirt' heartland

by Thanaporn Promyamyai

KHON KAEN, June 30, 2011 (AFP) - In the northern hinterlands that may hold the key to victory in a hard fought Thai election, the ruling party seems as unpopular as ever, despite decades of wooing rural voters.

The establishment-backed Democrats came to power in a parliamentary vote two years ago but it is almost 20 years since they won a popular mandate, and observers say a flatlining campaign is unlikely to reverse their fortunes.

It's a quandary that candidate Suntorn Leeseetuan was reluctant to admit as he hit the campaign trail ahead of Sunday's vote, in a long-shot bid to win a seat for the Democrats in his northeastern hometown of Khon Kaen.

"It's not too bad, at least they don't throw eggs at me," the 51-year-old told AFP, referring to a fate that befell the deputy prime minister in another stronghold of the opposition Puea Thai party.

The rural north and northeast are home to more than half of the Thai electorate, and are the heartland of the "Red Shirt" anti-government protest movement.

The mainly working-class Reds took to the streets of Bangkok last year in two months of mass demonstrations aimed at toppling the Democrats and Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, a man they say is a puppet for an unelected elite.

The Reds' loyalties lie instead with Thaksin Shinawatra, the charismatic but controversial former premier who won over the rural and urban poor with his populist policies such as cheap healthcare before his ouster in 2006.

Seen as corrupt and authoritarian by the elites, he nevertheless tapped into resentment against Thailand's centralised governance and had a relaxed style of leadership that appealed to farmers -- unlike the more reserved Abhisit.

"I think he comes across as a very cold leader in an ivory tower," said Thai academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun, at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

"He looks so uncomfortable every time he goes to the rice fields."

Not convinced by Oxford-educated Abhisit's attempts to emulate Thaksin's vote-winning platform, the Reds' mistrust of the Democrats was only inflamed by the army's assaults on their 2010 protests, during which more than 90 people died.

"Listen to me, the Democrats will not win," an amulet seller told AFP, as election hopeful Suntorn was campaigning in a Khon Kaen market.

"People who died weren't shot by civilians. They were shot by the military. People in Bangkok know what was going on... they don't want to take responsibility," said the seller, whose stall bore a picture of Thaksin.

When blue-shirted Suntorn saw the image, he walked swiftly past.

Anger here seems to directed mainly at the Democrats' top brass: on several election posters bearing pictures of both Suntorn and Abhisit, the local candidate's face is untouched, while the leader's image is cut or blacked out.

As Thailand's oldest party, a conservative and pro-monarchy force, the Democrats have traditional support bases in the south and Bangkok among both middle-class and the elites. It came to power in 2008, it is widely assumed, with army help.

Although rising consumer prices are thought to be compounding the Democrats' current difficulties, the economy has shown resilience under the party's helm, in the face of the global financial crisis and last year's political turmoil.

Yet Abhisit and his team have been wrong-footed by the appointment of Thaksin's youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, as the Puea Thai's main candidate for premier and a political proxy for her fugitive brother.

The cheerful businesswoman and political newcomer has quickly appealed to the masses with a slick and well-managed campaign, riding on Thaksin's popularity and populist approach.

"The momentum is with Yingluck and if nothing untoward happens she can expect to end on a high," said a Western diplomat in Bangkok.

"The Democrats really are sort of flatlining."

In a last-ditch bid to reverse his flagging fortunes, Abhisit last week launched a scathing attack on his rivals at the site of the Red Shirts' rally last year, calling on voters to "get rid of the poison of Thaksin."

But Pavin said such negative campaigning was a "very risky" approach that could drive away the large chunk of undecided voters, especially as many feel the Democrats have failed to close Thailand's deep political divide.

"I think people feel they have widened the rift," he said.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-06-30

[hammered]

Even excluding everything else, the democrat campaign has been utterly woeful. Their policies are almost unknown as there is none of the slick marketing and soundbiting PTP use, and the Dem posters have to be among the worst. You would have thought they would have at least learned how to do all that stuff after a decade of the other side using it. According to polls they started off about even with PTP and are now hugely behind and having to risk raising subjects that could as easily backfire on them as succeed. Abhisit and his team are starting to resemble Banyat and his team in terms of election campaign and look how well they faired in an election.

Many many people are neither red or yellow and could vote for many different parties but when in that position you tend to vote for the party offering you most or even the party that looks like winning. Everyone thinks PTP are offering most and will win*, while there is confusion over what the Dems are offering. The only way there will be a shock in this election is if either PTP make a huge faux pas in the next few days or vote buying on a monumental scale, that can even make up for all the money placed in bets already, takes hold.

* by win means coming first in number of seats, a position I do not necessarily agree with but PTP have won the meme that only the party that comes top can form a government and any multi-party coalition to deny them if they come out on top will see chaos whether it is constitutionally and ethically acceptable or not.

[myfriendu]

pt are offering lala land.and ts care to add more