Rift Erupts In Thailand's Red-Shirt Movement

[Steely Dan]

The red shirts will become to Puea Thai what BJT were to the Govt, a dirty lot who helped achieve a victory and then over-exaggerated their importance and demanded too much and disgraced themselves too much, I expect them to be at the heart of the next government's headaches and subject of the opposition's ridicule.

"At the same time, red-shirt leader Thida said she did not expect any problem during the formation of the new government because the process is being closely watched by the public. " - too right!

Basically, the Yinglock govt has a shelf life that expires shortly after Thaksin returns. The longer they leave it, the more likely they are to survive, it all depends on how impatient the boss is, or how arrogant, expect regular curved balls chucked at them by the PAD, Democrats, Chuwit, courts, army and their own reds. Can't say they didn't set themselves up for it though!

Or perhaps like PAD on yaba. I await to see what they do in lieu of squabbling with Cambodia if they don't receive satisfaction.

[letitbe]

I agree with Letitbe — i suspect Thaksin will be back somewhat sooner than anyone anticipates...

Do you really think it's not in his interest to provoke his enemies now that they're on the backfoot? Do you think he's wouldn't go down the road of civil war and the chance to totally re-make Thailand in his own image if he thought he could win? He's arguably never been in a more powerful position than he is now.

little bit worrying someone agreeing with me maybe im wrong Taksin like most megalomaniac evil men will probably cause his own downfall It just depends on how many more lives hell ruin in the meantime. But my real fear is hes clever than that and will do it bit by bit until suddenly without many hardly noticing we find ourselves in a 1 party state which will then depend what type of 1 party state is becomes. North Korea anyone. Best to just as im doing get what you can out just in case while you can. Leave it a few more years and you might not have the chance. I am watching very carefully as im sure most non brain washed are for further signs. Its early days and next 6-18 months will give signs of what is about to unfold. I doubt it will be much to anyones liking except his clan and top lieutenants. He must be almost drooling at lips thinking of how he could build a dynasty and would not care one bit about destroying a nation and people in process while also building his was chest even bigger for maybe higher plans. People here who think that impossible should read a little on rise of Hitler Mugabwie Saddam and rest and anyone who really believes we live in a different world these days are totally naive.

[OzMick]

Greek situation.

Military Dictatorship, revolte, than a little bit democracy, one time right wing, one time left wing. No essential change.

Now the "red gouvernment ( socialist) has to confront the red mob to resolve the economic crisis.

Phuai Thai Gouvernement confronts the same problem.

Economic problems cannot be resolved ( too many pigs on the trough).

PT can buy some Red Leaders, but not the criminels and and and .............

Next party of the reds is programmed.

I do not understand this post.

and euhhh...... is Thaksin a socialist? Or do you use "socialist" only as a swear word, like fachist or atheist or .....?

Atheist is not a swear word, it is a term of appreciation that someone has reached a stage of enlightenment where they no longer need to believe ancient myth. Ra, Thor, Zeus, and Jupiter are all long gone - just one more and you are there.

[animatic]

How can there be a conflict of interest if PTP = UDD? Another indication of the weakness of this simplistic and misleading formula.

Factions, factions, factions. add the classic greedy for power mind set

and then add in some are more brainwashed than others,

and some are more amoral and brainwashed.

The Red movement is not built on stable footing.

[badmedicine]

Atheist is not a swear word, it is a term of appreciation that someone has reached a stage of enlightenment where they no longer need to believe ancient myth.

Like it. I'm gonna steal that!

[kropotkin]

Greek situation.

Military Dictatorship, revolte, than a little bit democracy, one time right wing, one time left wing. No essential change.

Now the "red gouvernment ( socialist) has to confront the red mob to resolve the economic crisis.

Phuai Thai Gouvernement confronts the same problem.

Economic problems cannot be resolved ( too many pigs on the trough).

PT can buy some Red Leaders, but not the criminels and and and .............

Next party of the reds is programmed.

I do not understand this post.

and euhhh...... is Thaksin a socialist? Or do you use "socialist" only as a swear word, like fachist or atheist or .....?

Atheist is not a swear word, it is a term of appreciation that someone has reached a stage of enlightenment where they no longer need to believe ancient myth. Ra, Thor, Zeus, and Jupiter are all long gone - just one more and you are there.

OK - my mistake - it is late, and therefore I should not use sarcasm.

By the way, I did not choose the nickname "Kropotkin" by coincidence.

[animatic]

All that matters (and what I wonder) is whose side is Thaksin supporting?

Thaksin is old news now and will fade into history (sordid history) so I don't concur with you that it is at all to do with Thaksin now at all!!!

He won't be back in my opinion as the Thai people (and army) don't want him back and will never accept the face of Thaksin again in Thailand as he has done damage enough to the country both directly and through besmirching it's reputation as a civilised country with his incitement of terrorist activities in trying to settle his personal vendetta with seemingly EVERYONE Thai!!

Do us all a favour and keep out of Thai politics and be happy with your criminally obtained billions.

Myopia.

Makes not difference if half the people don't want him.

He wants it. And he has hubris to spare...

doesn't mean it wont end in tears though.

[animatic]

Do you really believe this will happen - jump on the "tedium" bandwaggon you may, but I think you will be disappointed when it doesn't happen as the situation is so different to before and not conducive to promoting a coup!!! Unless.......Yingluck attempts to bring her brother back when he's better of in a majority of people's minds being anywhere ELSE in the world rather than in Thailand as he raped it and ran for cover and people either knew this or are starting to appreciate it now. I don't think this will happen either as Yingluck is surely more savvy than this and must know that it will back fire big time should she attempt to make this happen!!!

You seem to be under the illusion that Little Sis has any say in how the country is run. Forget not who put her there and how she got there. Notice that all those Isaan MPs are flying to Dubai to negotiate for their position in the Pheua Thai cabinet. They're not hot-footing it down to BKK to talk to Yingy.

I wonder if Yingluk will start to feel humiliated when it becomes more and more apparent she is only a figurehead. It's one thing to say on the campaign trail that she's working for all Thais and her brother is only one of them, but when everyone knows she's not allowed to make any real decisions it must surely start to hurt.

Samak bristled at being called a puppet and tried to steer his own path for a while,we'll know Yingluk wants to resign when she starts her own paid cooking programme on television!

She is dutiful little sister, he has always called the shots in the companies,

she will do what the clan leader says is best for the clan and be haoppy with that.

[kuffki]

I think its much more simple than many think. Simply the ones who did not get seats in the government (a piece of the pie) are not happy and want to split

[animatic]

Greek situation.

Military Dictatorship, revolte, than a little bit democracy, one time right wing, one time left wing. No essential change.

Now the "red gouvernment ( socialist) has to confront the red mob to resolve the economic crisis.

Phuai Thai Gouvernement confronts the same problem.

Economic problems cannot be resolved ( too many pigs on the trough).

PT can buy some Red Leaders, but not the criminels and and and .............

Next party of the reds is programmed.

I do not understand this post.

and euhhh...... is Thaksin a socialist? Or do you use "socialist" only as a swear word, like fachist or atheist or .....?

Atheist is not a swear word, it is a term of appreciation that someone has reached a stage of enlightenment where they no longer need to believe ancient myth. Ra, Thor, Zeus, and Jupiter are all long gone - just one more and you are there.

Neither atheist nor fascist are swear words.

Lungmi makes perfect sense.

Economic problems can not be solved with all the snouts feeding on limited resources.

Of course the this is window dressing to hold the proletariate in check,

the real goal is the oil and transport rights and infrastructure to western china in the coming decade.

We are seeing the end game of the same dance Thailand has now, in Greece at present.

The arab sporing revolts are what might have happened if Thaksin had solidified power after 2006

and then hit his later 70's and it all went bad.

The PTP's big problem is there are not enough sops to be had, to stave of the lower or more radical reds demands, and this will cause splintering of factions. Some want big gains for their small circles, others want whole sale restructuring of the national structures including the purges this means. Others are truly brainwashed zealots, whom some are trying to marginalize now that they are not needed, but will they just 'fade away'... not likely.

So Thaksins triangulation of forces has opened up pandors box. This is not going to be any easier to 'put back in the box' than it was when Weng and Thida were student zealots hiding in the jungles shooting at army helicopters. Their dream was revived by Thaksins needs for boots on the ground to back his Perception Management mass mind control plan.

It is rather ironic that they call Thida not radical enough. They have just managed to put a unreconstructed Communist / Socialist ideologue, and long winded speaker, into parliament to change from within... what more do they want.... Oh, maybe ask Jatuporn and Da Torpedo...

Edited July 7, 2011 by animatic

[DumFarang]

youll see Taksin will be back by year end thats for sure weather he allows little sis to stay for a while a little while might be debatable/ what planet are you from fairytale land

Well if I were from a certain "land" then it probably wouldn't be a planet also. It would just be a planet or a land, but that's basic English.

Anyway, Thaksin may come back anytime he likes and Yingluck may put as many charges up for review as she likes, but a PM can't just pardon everything. That's why she has to put a case up for review, otherwise she would just pardon him. He still has to be found innocent in case after case after case. Yeah, back in a year. Good luck with that Taxsin.

[DumFarang]

I agree with Letitbe — i suspect Thaksin will be back somewhat sooner than anyone anticipates...

Do you really think it's not in his interest to provoke his enemies now that they're on the backfoot? Do you think he's wouldn't go down the road of civil war and the chance to totally re-make Thailand in his own image if he thought he could win? He's arguably never been in a more powerful position than he is now.

I doubt that. He's definitely made a nice little comeback here, but he's in exile still. I would argue that his power was absolutely more absolute when he was the PM.

[badmedicine]

I agree with Letitbe — i suspect Thaksin will be back somewhat sooner than anyone anticipates...

Do you really think it's not in his interest to provoke his enemies now that they're on the backfoot? Do you think he's wouldn't go down the road of civil war and the chance to totally re-make Thailand in his own image if he thought he could win? He's arguably never been in a more powerful position than he is now.

I doubt that. He's definitely made a nice little comeback here, but he's in exile still. I would argue that his power was absolutely more absolute when he was the PM.

Not really. He either had no idea or could do nothing about the forces that were ranged against him when he was PM. Hence his removal from power. Now, however, he's wiser, a little bit more experienced, he's been a few more rounds in the ring with the heavyweights. And who's come out on top?

Now he knows who's who and who's with him and who's against him. Whatismore, he's got a BIGGER parliamentary majority than he had before and more public opinion on his side than he had in 2006 (due in part to people's short memories and due in part to the Democrats achieving little other than pissing off the swing voters).

No, make no mistake. Thaksin is far stronger now than he was in 2006.

Edited July 7, 2011 by badmedicine

[letitbe]

youll see Taksin will be back by year end thats for sure weather he allows little sis to stay for a while a little while might be debatable/ what planet are you from fairytale land

Well if I were from a certain "land" then it probably wouldn't be a planet also. It would just be a planet or a land, but that's basic English.

Anyway, Thaksin may come back anytime he likes and Yingluck may put as many charges up for review as she likes, but a PM can't just pardon everything. That's why she has to put a case up for review, otherwise she would just pardon him. He still has to be found innocent in case after case after case. Yeah, back in a year. Good luck with that Taxsin.

easy retry case new evidence easy peasy No parden needed just righting a miscarriage of justice it was everyone knows dont they a political prosecution made against a political foe. Doesn't matter it will be done. Other cases will never see light of day. His wife is still walking free 3 years after being given a prison sentence and thats under a government hostile to her and rest. Think about it.

Seriously whos going to stop Taksin doing whatever he wants.Its so obvious it screams into your face. If army step in and they might redswill go mad and it will be full all out war no holds barred. Taksin willprobably be careful enough just just not quite step over the line until hessecured his position and troops.

Step 1 – This I admit was brilliant find a candidate whoappears not to threaten. Even I was surprised that choosing his sister wouldnot be seen through. Amazing what a sweet smile and pretty face can do and ofcourse women are gentle and kind.

Step 2 – keep dogs under strict control. Abhisit even didthis for them or system did by locking worst ones up or causing them to flee.

Step 3 – say anything promise anything to get votes. Reconciliation,no revenge , I wont come back.

Step 4 – now this was quicker than I expected. ReopenTaksins case and pass to judges having made sure this time they are under noillusions of what is good for country and themselves. Takes a very brave judgeto go against Taksin and his dogs. Honorable ones will resign or not do job.During this phase as a side show purely to distract main event speed up enquiryinto last years little outing by reds. Also during this stage keep dogs undercontrol with whatever promises for future achieves it. After all they can besorted later. He might even forgo trying to get the money back so people willlove him all the more for it. Plenty of time for that later.

Step 5 – a bit tricky this but slowly buy or whatever ittakes get control of Army lice and rest. I doubt army will dare to move beforeit is to late and after all hes still got his dogs in background. Hed risk acivil war if needs be but bad for business so will try and avoid it.

Step 6 – return to Thailand and create some sort of crisisduring which time his sister will fall ill need an operation or something andhe will be forced to step in for a while as his duty. This stage will lastaround 12-18 months probably.

Step 7 – some form of internal uprising against all thisonce hes sorted army which sadly means martial law has to be imposed to keeporder.

Game set and Match.Planned timescale 5-12 years with a quick election after 3 years or so tosecure an even bigger mandate having lulled most into a sense of relief thatactually it was ok.

[kropotkin]

Greek situation.

Military Dictatorship, revolte, than a little bit democracy, one time right wing, one time left wing. No essential change.

Now the "red gouvernment ( socialist) has to confront the red mob to resolve the economic crisis.

Phuai Thai Gouvernement confronts the same problem.

Economic problems cannot be resolved ( too many pigs on the trough).

PT can buy some Red Leaders, but not the criminels and and and .............

Next party of the reds is programmed.

I do not understand this post.

and euhhh...... is Thaksin a socialist? Or do you use "socialist" only as a swear word, like fachist or atheist or .....?

Atheist is not a swear word, it is a term of appreciation that someone has reached a stage of enlightenment where they no longer need to believe ancient myth. Ra, Thor, Zeus, and Jupiter are all long gone - just one more and you are there.

Neither atheist nor fascist are swear words.

Lungmi makes perfect sense.

Economic problems can not be solved with all the snouts feeding on limited resources.

Of course the this is window dressing to hold the proletariate in check,

the real goal is the oil and transport rights and infrastructure to western china in the coming decade.

We are seeing the end game of the same dance Thailand has now, in Greece at present.

The arab sporing revolts are what might have happened if Thaksin had solidified power after 2006

and then hit his later 70's and it all went bad.

The PTP's big problem is there are not enough sops to be had, to stave of the lower or more radical reds demands, and this will cause splintering of factions. Some want big gains for their small circles, others want whole sale restructuring of the national structures including the purges this means. Others are truly brainwashed zealots, whom some are trying to marginalize now that they are not needed, but will they just 'fade away'... not likely.

So Thaksins triangulation of forces has opened up pandors box. This is not going to be any easier to 'put back in the box' than it was when Weng and Thida were student zealots hiding in the jungles shooting at army helicopters. Their dream was revived by Thaksins needs for boots on the ground to back his Perception Management mass mind control plan.

It is rather ironic that they call Thida not radical enough. They have just managed to put a unreconstructed Communist / Socialist ideologue, and long winded speaker, into parliament to change from within... what more do they want.... Oh, maybe ask Jatuporn and Da Torpedo...

Meanwhile, in the US, comrade Obama ........

And since sarcasm is not understood at this hour of the day, may I add that I am being sarcastic again......????

[longway]

All that matters (and what I wonder) is whose side is Thaksin supporting?

The side he's on! Whatever it may be.

Thaksin's on Thaksin'd side. It would be a classic irony if he is fermenting rifts in the movement to keep them weak and divided so less of a potential threat to him.

[WinnieTheKhwai]

I didn't read the whole discussion, but it makes sense for the Red Shirt movement to split up.

It was always a marriage of convenience between various groups; some just wanted Thaksin back, others had idealist goals for democracy or socialism or related causes.

The people who are in it to get PTP elected and Thaksin back are pretty much done.

The ones with actual agendas about society and political systems SHOULD break away. They never had all that much in common with Thaksin anyway, other than a common goal against the Democrats/military/establishment.

Interesting times are ahead. I'm looking forward to see how it will develop.

[badmedicine]

Step 2 – keep dogs under strict control. Abhisit even didthis for them or system did by locking worst ones up or causing them to flee.

Step 3 – say anything promise anything to get votes. Reconciliation,no revenge , I wont come back.

Very perceptive these points. I never even thought about Step 2, but you're right on the money.

[hanuman1]

How can there be a conflict of interest if PTP = UDD? Another indication of the weakness of this simplistic and misleading formula.

Factions, factions, factions. add the classic greedy for power mind set

and then add in some are more brainwashed than others,

and some are more amoral and brainwashed.

The Red movement is not built on stable footing.

I quite agree that the red shirt movement contains many factions. It has done since very early on in its existence, which not only explains why they haven't always been able to control some of them but also highlights another reason why they cannot possibly be equated to the PTP en masse.

[NCFC]

Another non-story from the Nation. Already PT has declared this week's headlines are nonsense speculation from tired, old hacks who can't be bothered to find out what really going on and just make stuff up.

[DumFarang]

youll see Taksin will be back by year end thats for sure weather he allows little sis to stay for a while a little while might be debatable/ what planet are you from fairytale land

Well if I were from a certain "land" then it probably wouldn't be a planet also. It would just be a planet or a land, but that's basic English.

Anyway, Thaksin may come back anytime he likes and Yingluck may put as many charges up for review as she likes, but a PM can't just pardon everything. That's why she has to put a case up for review, otherwise she would just pardon him. He still has to be found innocent in case after case after case. Yeah, back in a year. Good luck with that Taxsin.

easy retry case new evidence easy peasy No parden needed just righting a miscarriage of justice it was everyone knows dont they a political prosecution made against a political foe. Doesn't matter it will be done. Other cases will never see light of day. His wife is still walking free 3 years after being given a prison sentence and thats under a government hostile to her and rest. Think about it.

Seriously whos going to stop Taksin doing whatever he wants.Its so obvious it screams into your face. If army step in and they might redswill go mad and it will be full all out war no holds barred. Taksin willprobably be careful enough just just not quite step over the line until hessecured his position and troops.

Step 1 – This I admit was brilliant find a candidate whoappears not to threaten. Even I was surprised that choosing his sister wouldnot be seen through. Amazing what a sweet smile and pretty face can do and ofcourse women are gentle and kind.

Step 2 – keep dogs under strict control. Abhisit even didthis for them or system did by locking worst ones up or causing them to flee.

Step 3 – say anything promise anything to get votes. Reconciliation,no revenge , I wont come back.

Step 4 – now this was quicker than I expected. ReopenTaksins case and pass to judges having made sure this time they are under noillusions of what is good for country and themselves. Takes a very brave judgeto go against Taksin and his dogs. Honorable ones will resign or not do job.During this phase as a side show purely to distract main event speed up enquiryinto last years little outing by reds. Also during this stage keep dogs undercontrol with whatever promises for future achieves it. After all they can besorted later. He might even forgo trying to get the money back so people willlove him all the more for it. Plenty of time for that later.

Step 5 – a bit tricky this but slowly buy or whatever ittakes get control of Army lice and rest. I doubt army will dare to move beforeit is to late and after all hes still got his dogs in background. Hed risk acivil war if needs be but bad for business so will try and avoid it.

Step 6 – return to Thailand and create some sort of crisisduring which time his sister will fall ill need an operation or something andhe will be forced to step in for a while as his duty. This stage will lastaround 12-18 months probably.

Step 7 – some form of internal uprising against all thisonce hes sorted army which sadly means martial law has to be imposed to keeporder.

Game set and Match.Planned timescale 5-12 years with a quick election after 3 years or so tosecure an even bigger mandate having lulled most into a sense of relief thatactually it was ok.

You better let Thaksin know you got his plan all laid out for him. He'll want to know and probably pay you for drawing it up.

[rubl]

Another non-story from the Nation. Already PT has declared this week's headlines are nonsense speculation from tired, old hacks who can't be bothered to find out what really going on and just make stuff up.

Interesting is that both English language newspapers come with the same type of rumours and denials. Thai language versions not really different. I guess you can only believe Ms. Yingluck, who keeps saying 'it's too early to tell'

[mccw]

Civil war is a real possibility. It came close at the run up to and breaking of the protests ; sertain army units not obeying orders and giving up weapons and such.

Now this gov is incharge army positions will slowly start to change; like before the coup (the ultimate reason for the coup); the risk of thaksin coming back too soon with only half or so of military on side is serious. He'll never b be able to usurp all but will likely call the bluff at some point. Depends on how far the rot is allowed to go also. Millitary coup may seem unlikely because it would b unpopular but end of the day coup and putting down red masses lightly armed would be much easier than facing all out civil war between factions with in the military itself. Could b the death of one man at the top of either ying or yang might seal Thailand path for the next 5-10 years.

I agree with all those who c thaksin as a musolini type dangerous megalomaniac. Dark days ahead for all Thailand I fear. Maybe thaksin wil return and rule a truly terrible reign until there isanother revolution after the economy is wrecked inflation through the roof and mass unemployment.

Many possible paths.

I'm selling my house in town and building a little place in the country for holidays but moving most money and family back to England.

Chock dee

[Gandalf8353]

Have to really laugh at the insinuation that those who voted in Yingluck are "stupid", "undeducated", "morons", "losers". All elitist fingers point to Isaan. It wasn't just Isaan that voted her in, it was most of the rest of the country uninhabited by those elitists who feel that they always know what is best for everyone else. Someone mentioned the Arab spring. The Arab spring was the result of dictatorial regimes who used the military to crush legal and legitimate protest, also young people who were educated and willing to work, but the government was too busy making enormous profits off the backs of the people. The former President of Egypt was worth billions. Sound familiar?

[Jingthing]

Have to really laugh at the insinuation that those who voted in Yingluck are "stupid", "undeducated", "morons", "losers". All elitist fingers point to Isaan. It wasn't just Isaan that voted her in, it was most of the rest of the country uninhabited by those elitists who feel that they always know what is best for everyone else. Someone mentioned the Arab spring. The Arab spring was the result of dictatorial regimes who used the military to crush legal and legitimate protest, also young people who were educated and willing to work, but the government was too busy making enormous profits off the backs of the people. The former President of Egypt was worth billions. Sound familiar?

Yes, I have heard of Egypt and the Arab spring so that sounds familiar. BTW, you confuse me. Thaksin is an elitist billionaire, yes?

[mccw]

Thaksin continuing back on his path to becoming something between a Mubarak and Mugabe is exactly what I'm worried about. ^

Gandalf I'm afraid it's true that those supporting thaksin now will b the biggest losers if he semen's control absolutely

[mccw]

Semen's should read cements

[Jingthing]

Yes, my impression is that the Thai people did indeed DEMOCRATICALLY elect a leader (Thaksin, Yingluck is the conduit of course) who is not committed to democracy. I also think they knew what they were doing, for some strange reason, this is what they want at this point in time in Thai history. An autocratic leader, and HIM in particular. They have been seduced. There are other historical situations in other eras and countries one can point to as similar. However, I see no comparison to the so called Arab Spring.

Edited July 7, 2011 by Jingthing

[mccw]

Have to really laugh at the insinuation that those who voted in Yingluck are "stupid", "undeducated", "morons", "losers". All elitist fingers point to Isaan. It wasn't just Isaan that voted her in, it was most of the rest of the country uninhabited by those elitists who feel that they always know what is best for everyone else. Someone mentioned the Arab spring. The Arab spring was the result of dictatorial regimes who used the military to crush legal and legitimate protest, also young people who were educated and willing to work, but the government was too busy making enormous profits off the backs of the people. The former President of Egypt was worth billions. Sound familiar?

Agh I c now

Very good impression of what a "stupid, eneducted" eesan red shirt would say if they could speak like native English

Or would that b the intellegensia within the movement?

Edited July 7, 2011 by mccw

[nottocus]

It's 'The Prophecy' people. It is coming true.....beware everyone.....it's 'The Prophecy".