Baptism Of Fire A Sign Of Things To Come For Yingluck

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

Baptism of fire a sign of things to come for Yingluck

By The Nation

Suspension by Electoral Commission threatens to re-ignite the flames of political rage - but worse could follow

The forecast that Yingluck Shinawatra will become Thailand's first female prime minister is suddenly not as certain as it was in the immediate aftermath of the July 3 election. But whatever Tuesday's decision by the Election Commission to "suspend" her means, she has had the first glimpse of what awaits her if she is officially announced as the country's next leader. The baptism of fire for Thaksin Shinawatra's dearest sister has apparently begun in earnest.

The Election Commission's decision not to immediately endorse her as an MP could be just a matter of formality. The panel traditionally does not endorse or confirm election winners right away if complaints have been made against them. The best-case scenario for Yingluck, therefore, is her eventual endorsement by the EC next week. To pessimistic observers of Thai politics, particularly those among her supporters, a new storm could be brewing already.

The bad news for Yingluck is that while it is not unusual for the EC to delay endorsing candidates accused of violating election laws, it has never before acted against party-list winners in this way. For one thing, party list candidates normally don't have to do much campaigning, so they are more protected against charges of misconduct.

But as Pheu Thai's prime ministerial candidate, Yingluck was actively involved in the election campaign. Worse still, she had to interact publicly with banned politicians and refer to her convicted brother Thaksin many times to attract support. Political circumstances required tactics - such as the posters that proclaimed "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai does" - which made Yingluck legally vulnerable.

But the stakes are higher than Yingluck's future. Disqualifying Yingluck alone would be enough to send red-shirt protesters back onto the streets. But on Tuesday, the EC did more than just suspend her. Several red-shirt leaders on Pheu Thai's party list were not granted endorsement, a situation that is upsetting the entire red-shirt apparatus. All of a sudden, the semblance of political peace that followed the July 3 poll is looking fragile.

The EC's decision to suspend Yingluck along with several other poll winners on Tuesday may not affect the process of convening the new House of Representatives. The law requires a quorum of at least 475 MPs to convene the House, whereas only 358 poll winners have been endorsed. However, since the law allows the EC to act against MPs after Parliament convenes, suspended winners can first be endorsed so that the quorum can be met, then disqualified later.

In other words, the new House should convene in time, within 30 days of the July 3 election. But this can't be good news if Yingluck is not among those who make up the quorum. If she is prevented from vying for the post of premier, turmoil on the streets cannot be ruled out.

But Yingluck's troubles have only just begun. Even if she is confirmed as an MP and finally elected prime minister, a floodgate of new political problems is likely to open. Some analysts believe her road will be so strewn with landmines that there may come a day when she regrets not being disqualified by the EC from the beginning.

As prime minister, Yingluck will always be haunted by her own past and the spectre of her big brother, Thaksin Shinawatra. Her testimony in the Thaksin assets case will be used as a political weapon against her almost immediately. During the trial, she told the court she owned parts of Thaksin's allegedly "unusually high" wealth, and her opponents could use those words to trap her.

Outgoing prime minister Abhisit was also suspended by the EC, and his party may once again face dissolution if he is found guilty. But the focus is now on the new kid in town. Whether or not she is finally set free by the EC to enter the next phase of her short political career, Yingluck's dreamland of a stunning political campaign and election victory is fast dissolving into one harsh reality.

-- The Nation 2011-07-15

[Thailand]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

[FOODLOVER]

Every time i go to hell and back i pretty much have to do the same thing. Gets boring and the putrid smell takes weeks to get rid of.

[OzMick]

A few brave men!

I expect in the next few days the accusations will fly - the whole gamut from perverting democracy and ignoring the will of the people, members of the elite, corrupt bribe seekers - everything you can think of, up to and probably including pedophilia. How dare they have the nerve to do their job and enforce electoral law.

They will need to be brave because nothing will stop the "People's Revolution." When the red mobs surge back into town, they, their families and homes will be prime targets for harassment. The fact that if Yingluk and the whole coven of red criminals are banned, they will be replaced by other PTP party list candidates with no effect on PTP's majority, will not even be mentioned in the red media as it stirs the simmering pot of hate, discontent and greed.

Good luck gentlemen, i fear that you will need it.

[pogal]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

Sure they are! Just like the anti-corruption commission LOL

http://jurist.org/paperchase/2005/05/thailand-anti-corruption-commission.php

[jayboy]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

The Election Commission notwithstanding its origins has an important job to do.If it did not exist its functions would need to be performed by another body.I think therefore notwithstanding any reservations about its cautious approach it should be given the benefit of the doubt.At the same time most non partisan observers will recognise the danger of the EC perhaps involuntarily being enlisted in the battle between the unelected elites and the Thai people as whole.It's too early in my view to draw any conclusions on this front though clearly this needs to be monitored.The EC must do its job with care and urgency.But it must also bear in mind its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people, not to kowtow to the forces wholly hostile to the Thai peoples democratic wishes.

[Crushdepth]

A few brave men!

I expect in the next few days the accusations will fly - the whole gamut from perverting democracy and ignoring the will of the people, members of the elite, corrupt bribe seekers - everything you can think of, up to and probably including pedophilia. How dare they have the nerve to do their job and enforce electoral law.

They will need to be brave because nothing will stop the "People's Revolution." When the red mobs surge back into town, they, their families and homes will be prime targets for harassment. The fact that if Yingluk and the whole coven of red criminals are banned, they will be replaced by other PTP party list candidates with no effect on PTP's majority, will not even be mentioned in the red media as it stirs the simmering pot of hate, discontent and greed.

Good luck gentlemen, i fear that you will need it.

It's not a job I would want. It doesn't matter what they do, 50% of the population will hate them regardless.

[whybother]

The Election Commission notwithstanding its origins has an important job to do.If it did not exist its functions would need to be performed by another body.I think therefore notwithstanding any reservations about its cautious approach it should be given the benefit of the doubt.At the same time most non partisan observers will recognise the danger of the EC perhaps involuntarily being enlisted in the battle between the unelected elites and the Thai people as whole.It's too early in my view to draw any conclusions on this front though clearly this needs to be monitored.The EC must do its job with care and urgency.But it must also bear in mind its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people, not to kowtow to the forces wholly hostile to the Thai peoples democratic wishes.

I would have thought that their reason for existence is to uphold the election laws.

The will of the people can be used to change laws through parliament. It shouldn't be used to override existing laws.

Especially when it's potentially only the will of some of the people.

[OzMick]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

The Election Commission notwithstanding its origins has an important job to do.If it did not exist its functions would need to be performed by another body.I think therefore notwithstanding any reservations about its cautious approach it should be given the benefit of the doubt.At the same time most non partisan observers will recognise the danger of the EC perhaps involuntarily being enlisted in the battle between the unelected elites and the Thai people as whole.It's too early in my view to draw any conclusions on this front though clearly this needs to be monitored.The EC must do its job with care and urgency.But it must also bear in mind its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people, not to kowtow to the forces wholly hostile to the Thai peoples democratic wishes.

".......... its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people........"

..........and there they were thinking that their job was to uphold electoral law. Misguided fools! And if the will of the people is UNFAIRLY expressed, should they act?

[jayboy]

The Election Commission notwithstanding its origins has an important job to do.If it did not exist its functions would need to be performed by another body.I think therefore notwithstanding any reservations about its cautious approach it should be given the benefit of the doubt.At the same time most non partisan observers will recognise the danger of the EC perhaps involuntarily being enlisted in the battle between the unelected elites and the Thai people as whole.It's too early in my view to draw any conclusions on this front though clearly this needs to be monitored.The EC must do its job with care and urgency.But it must also bear in mind its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people, not to kowtow to the forces wholly hostile to the Thai peoples democratic wishes.

I would have thought that their reason for existence is to uphold the election laws.

The will of the people can be used to change laws through parliament. It shouldn't be used to override existing laws.

Especially when it's potentially only the will of some of the people.

As Suranand Vejjaviva points out in the other paper the EC was created as an instrument of democracy and thus should serve the people's interest, not those elements which are trying to distort it.

I don't understand your last sentence.Are you suggesting the PTP and its coalition partners don't have a democratic mandate?

[jayboy]

".......... its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people........"

..........and there they were thinking that their job was to uphold electoral law. Misguided fools! And if the will of the people is UNFAIRLY expressed, should they act?

Of course the EC must uphold the law, and the reason for that law is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people.

If you have any reason to believe the last election was unfair (a position none of the neutral observation agencies would agree with) you can provide the evidence.As it happens I am sympathetic to the complaints that many were unreasonably disqualified from voting (As Khun Chamlong has vigorously pointed out).This clearly needs investigation.

[Thailand]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

The Election Commission notwithstanding its origins has an important job to do.If it did not exist its functions would need to be performed by another body.I think therefore notwithstanding any reservations about its cautious approach it should be given the benefit of the doubt.At the same time most non partisan observers will recognise the danger of the EC perhaps involuntarily being enlisted in the battle between the unelected elites and the Thai people as whole.It's too early in my view to draw any conclusions on this front though clearly this needs to be monitored.The EC must do its job with care and urgency.But it must also bear in mind its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people, not to kowtow to the forces wholly hostile to the Thai peoples democratic wishes.

A fine response.

The question then arises who monitors the monitors.

[whybother]

As Suranand Vejjaviva points out in the other paper the EC was created as an instrument of democracy and thus should serve the people's interest, not those elements which are trying to distort it.

I don't understand your last sentence.Are you suggesting the PTP and its coalition partners don't have a democratic mandate?

Where do you draw the line as to how much cheating you can do to win an election? If you cheat, and get a majority, have you really won?

The EC's job is to apply the law. They shouldn't ignore the law just because "it's the will of the people", especially if they don't know what the will of the people would have been if there was no cheating.

You've had a bit of a problem understanding basic statements over the last couple of days.

[whybother]

".......... its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people........"

..........and there they were thinking that their job was to uphold electoral law. Misguided fools! And if the will of the people is UNFAIRLY expressed, should they act?

Of course the EC must uphold the law, and the reason for that law is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people.

If you have any reason to believe the last election was unfair (a position none of the neutral observation agencies would agree with) you can provide the evidence.As it happens I am sympathetic to the complaints that many were unreasonably disqualified from voting (As Khun Chamlong has vigorously pointed out).This clearly needs investigation.

The EC has already ignored the "will of the people" and decided that in one electorate the election was unfair. Now, the candidates have to try again, hopefully this time without cheating.

[jalansanitwong]

People are already taking bets on how long she will last as PM. 6 months maybe?

[jayboy]

As Suranand Vejjaviva points out in the other paper the EC was created as an instrument of democracy and thus should serve the people's interest, not those elements which are trying to distort it.

I don't understand your last sentence.Are you suggesting the PTP and its coalition partners don't have a democratic mandate?

Where do you draw the line as to how much cheating you can do to win an election? If you cheat, and get a majority, have you really won?

The EC's job is to apply the law. They shouldn't ignore the law just because "it's the will of the people", especially if they don't know what the will of the people would have been if there was no cheating.

You've had a bit of a problem understanding basic statements over the last couple of days.

One draws the line at frivolous objections, of which there have been several.

All independent election observers have agreed that the recent elections were generally well conducted and fair.If there were substantive irregularities they obviously need to be looked into by the EC and other relevant bodies.

[EvilDrSomkid]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

The Election Commission notwithstanding its origins has an important job to do.If it did not exist its functions would need to be performed by another body.I think therefore notwithstanding any reservations about its cautious approach it should be given the benefit of the doubt.At the same time most non partisan observers will recognise the danger of the EC perhaps involuntarily being enlisted in the battle between the unelected elites and the Thai people as whole.It's too early in my view to draw any conclusions on this front though clearly this needs to be monitored.The EC must do its job with care and urgency.But it must also bear in mind its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people, not to kowtow to the forces wholly hostile to the Thai peoples democratic wishes.

A fine response.

The question then arises who monitors the monitors.

Why, the Privy Council, of course. Unofficially maybe.

And who leads the PC?

[whybother]

One draws the line at frivolous objections, of which there have been several.

All independent election observers have agreed that the recent elections were generally well conducted and fair.If there were substantive irregularities they obviously need to be looked into by the EC and other relevant bodies.

So the EC will throw out those frivolous objections, as they have already done in a number of cases.

Is there a suggestion of "substantive irregularities"? It WAS a generally well conducted and fair election.

I am sure if you ask those independent election observers, they would probably tell you that PTP did use Thaksin to further their cause. That is against the law.

If Thaksin HAD kept out of politics, as he is supposed to do, then Yingluck wouldn't have been the #1 party list candidate, and PTP wouldn't have got as many votes as they did.

As far as I'm concerned, I hope she DOES get to be PM.

That is the only way "the people" can see what they have voted for. The PTP are already back tracking on a number of their promises. They are going to be governing during a time when the global economy is going to the sh1t, unlike when Thaksin was PM with the global economy booming. "The people" will realise that the PTP will not be able to make everyone rich in 6 months, and that the PTP are no different to any other party. But a lot of people already know that.

But a lot of people already know that.

[hellodolly]

A sad state of affairs when a certain group of people dressed in red shirts can dictate to the whole country what to do or else. The else being violence.

Yingluck knew from the start that her brothers acting as her campain manager and controlling of the PT was reason to have the EC invalidate her election.

Yet she choose to proceed with it.

She also knew her brother controlled a Terrorist army that would threaten Thailand with violence if they refused to turn and look the other way while they knowingly broke the law.

The really sad part is as was pointed out earlier if she is disqualified the PT will still seat the new PM. But these armed peaceful protesters are not paid to back PT they are paid to back a family.

[tartempion]

Who are the Election Commission and are they totally above board, independent , and untainted by any skeletons in the closet?

Those who voted for Phua Thai will find the old power controls the EC

[trigz]

It was an 'honest mistake' wasn't it ? Thats worked in the past anyway.

[jayboy]

A sad state of affairs when a certain group of people dressed in red shirts can dictate to the whole country what to do or else. The else being violence.

Yingluck knew from the start that her brothers acting as her campain manager and controlling of the PT was reason to have the EC invalidate her election.

Yet she choose to proceed with it.

She also knew her brother controlled a Terrorist army that would threaten Thailand with violence if they refused to turn and look the other way while they knowingly broke the law.

The really sad part is as was pointed out earlier if she is disqualified the PT will still seat the new PM. But these armed peaceful protesters are not paid to back PT they are paid to back a family.

Not really.The EC accepted her candidature but anyway we will not have long to wait to see whether you are right or wrong.The general view is that the unelected elites are not so completely stupid to intervene at this early stage.

You make a number of unsubstantiated charges, none of which have been proven and which are probably defamatory.

[jayboy]

I am sure if you ask those independent election observers, they would probably tell you that PTP did use Thaksin to further their cause. That is against the law.

If Thaksin HAD kept out of politics, as he is supposed to do, then Yingluck wouldn't have been the #1 party list candidate, and PTP wouldn't have got as many votes as they did.

Unlikely as such a matter would not have been part of their brief.If you are so sure of the law you will be proved correct in the next week or so.

Some might bemusedly point out that the last government depended on a faction led by a banned politician.

Your last sentence smacks of desperation I'm afraid.Still not long to wait before matters are clarified.

[tigermonkey]

A sad state of affairs when a certain group of people dressed in red shirts can dictate to the whole country what to do or else. The else being violence.

Yingluck knew from the start that her brothers acting as her campain manager and controlling of the PT was reason to have the EC invalidate her election.

Yet she choose to proceed with it.

She also knew her brother controlled a Terrorist army that would threaten Thailand with violence if they refused to turn and look the other way while they knowingly broke the law.

The really sad part is as was pointed out earlier if she is disqualified the PT will still seat the new PM. But these armed peaceful protesters are not paid to back PT they are paid to back a family.

I am sorry to say that you are wrong, but you are wrong !

Whether you like it or not, none of Taksin's actions broke the law under which he is banished from politics. He may have not followed the 'spirit of the law' , but the law is very specific about what a banned politician cannot do. He did none of those things .

So what is the " reason to have the EC invalidate her election" ? -- because the spirit of the law was broken ? --- that is as nefarious as using the ' the will of the people' to validate the election.

[tigermonkey]

One draws the line at frivolous objections, of which there have been several.

All independent election observers have agreed that the recent elections were generally well conducted and fair.If there were substantive irregularities they obviously need to be looked into by the EC and other relevant bodies.

So the EC will throw out those frivolous objections, as they have already done in a number of cases.

Is there a suggestion of "substantive irregularities"? It WAS a generally well conducted and fair election.

I am sure if you ask those independent election observers, they would probably tell you that PTP did use Thaksin to further their cause. That is against the law.

If Thaksin HAD kept out of politics, as he is supposed to do, then Yingluck wouldn't have been the #1 party list candidate, and PTP wouldn't have got as many votes as they did.

As far as I'm concerned, I hope she DOES get to be PM.

That is the only way "the people" can see what they have voted for. The PTP are already back tracking on a number of their promises. They are going to be governing during a time when the global economy is going to the sh1t, unlike when Thaksin was PM with the global economy booming. "The people" will realise that the PTP will not be able to make everyone rich in 6 months, and that the PTP are no different to any other party. But a lot of people already know that.

But a lot of people already know that.

Please let's deal in facts.

You state that " PTP did use Thaksin to further their cause. That is against the law."

Taksin is a banned politician with very precisely stated things whch he cannot do -- do some research.

Please do tell us all which law was broken. Exactly what is "against the law" . I am very willing to be convinced by your factual argument.

[hellodolly]

A sad state of affairs when a certain group of people dressed in red shirts can dictate to the whole country what to do or else. The else being violence.

Yingluck knew from the start that her brothers acting as her campain manager and controlling of the PT was reason to have the EC invalidate her election.

Yet she choose to proceed with it.

She also knew her brother controlled a Terrorist army that would threaten Thailand with violence if they refused to turn and look the other way while they knowingly broke the law.

The really sad part is as was pointed out earlier if she is disqualified the PT will still seat the new PM. But these armed peaceful protesters are not paid to back PT they are paid to back a family.

Not really.The EC accepted her candidature but anyway we will not have long to wait to see whether you are right or wrong.The general view is that the unelected elites are not so completely stupid to intervene at this early stage.

You make a number of unsubstantiated charges, none of which have been proven and which are probably defamatory.

You are really hung up on proof aren't you. Why do you insist on ignoring the obvious and throwing common sense out the window. Do you have proof that you will receive a pay check when you work? do you have proof that the sky is blue? do you have proof that Yingluck is a women. show me the proof.

The list like you goes on and on.

I personally do not believe she was the best choice. But the fact is she was elected by the people after her brother chose her. She now deserves a chance to prove herself.

People seem to think that she was the peoples choice not so she had more people vote against her than for her. But under the current system she will be the new PM. And no I do not have proof of that.

Perhaps my charges are not proven and they are defamatory (have you proof of that) does that make them wrong.

[whybother]

One draws the line at frivolous objections, of which there have been several.

All independent election observers have agreed that the recent elections were generally well conducted and fair.If there were substantive irregularities they obviously need to be looked into by the EC and other relevant bodies.

So the EC will throw out those frivolous objections, as they have already done in a number of cases.

Is there a suggestion of "substantive irregularities"? It WAS a generally well conducted and fair election.

I am sure if you ask those independent election observers, they would probably tell you that PTP did use Thaksin to further their cause. That is against the law.

If Thaksin HAD kept out of politics, as he is supposed to do, then Yingluck wouldn't have been the #1 party list candidate, and PTP wouldn't have got as many votes as they did.

As far as I'm concerned, I hope she DOES get to be PM.

That is the only way "the people" can see what they have voted for. The PTP are already back tracking on a number of their promises. They are going to be governing during a time when the global economy is going to the sh1t, unlike when Thaksin was PM with the global economy booming. "The people" will realise that the PTP will not be able to make everyone rich in 6 months, and that the PTP are no different to any other party. But a lot of people already know that.

But a lot of people already know that.

Please let's deal in facts.

You state that " PTP did use Thaksin to further their cause. That is against the law."

Taksin is a banned politician with very precisely stated things whch he cannot do -- do some research.

Please do tell us all which law was broken. Exactly what is "against the law" . I am very willing to be convinced by your factual argument.

Fine. If it's not against the law, then there is no problem for the PTP. But it is up to the EC and the courts to decide that.

If a complaint has been lodged, it should be investigated, and if the EC and/or the courts should make a decision one way or the other, they will (as they have in many recent cases) explain why they have made a decision.

It is not up to "the will of the people" to make a decision. IF a party or candidate has cheated to win an election, then the fact that the people have voted for them is irrelevant.

[OzMick]

".......... its whole reason for existence is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people........"

..........and there they were thinking that their job was to uphold electoral law. Misguided fools! And if the will of the people is UNFAIRLY expressed, should they act?

Of course the EC must uphold the law, and the reason for that law is to reflect the fairly expressed will of the people.

If you have any reason to believe the last election was unfair (a position none of the neutral observation agencies would agree with) you can provide the evidence.As it happens I am sympathetic to the complaints that many were unreasonably disqualified from voting (As Khun Chamlong has vigorously pointed out).This clearly needs investigation.

Do you consider participation by banned politicians to be "fair" even though it is illegal?

[aaacorp]

if politics ever wanted reconciliation they should let this government have a try...after all, the best way to show people they made a bad choic is to let them see how messy the country will be....by invalidate the election the only thing which will rise will be anger, feeling of unfairness....and bring colored shirts back in the street (red, yellow, green,....).

People opposed to thaksin who think Isaan, uneducated people and so are fools, will then have a way to "teach" them...and eventualy "som nam na" them

But no, they prefer to create more turnmoil when things seemd to be accepted by opposition (except the PAD of course) and even, at least for the show, by the army

[OzMick]

if politics ever wanted reconciliation they should let this government have a try...after all, the best way to show people they made a bad choic is to let them see how messy the country will be....by invalidate the election the only thing which will rise will be anger, feeling of unfairness....and bring colored shirts back in the street (red, yellow, green,....).

People opposed to thaksin who think Isaan, uneducated people and so are fools, will then have a way to "teach" them...and eventualy "som nam na" them

But no, they prefer to create more turnmoil when things seemd to be accepted by opposition (except the PAD of course) and even, at least for the show, by the army

No other colours, just red. The election is NOT likely to be invalidated, PTP (or if it is banned, its next incarnation) will still form the govt, its elected MPs will stay elected, but quite possibly Yingluk and the red criminals will not be part of it, being replaced by party list candidates further down the list.

The feeling of anger and unfairness will increase, the flames fanned by Thaksin dollars via the red media - though in fact there is really very little to be angry about. And that is foolish!