Relations With Military A Tough Test For Yingluck

[Lite Beer]

EDITORIAL

Relations with military a tough test for Yingluck

Should the Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidate get past the EC hurdle, she will need to be judicious in picking her defence minister

Yingluck Shinawatra's problems are competing to present themselves and the July 3 fairy tale seems to be a distant past already. Her issue with the Election Commission is going hand in hand with an uneasy situation with the Thai military, which may soon make the EC look like an adorable bad boy. Even before she officially becomes Thailand's new prime minister, Yingluck is getting a crash course on the men in uniform's always controversial role in Thai politics.

First, she has had to come out and deny a news headline report that she would double as defence minister after the story sent the political temperature up a few degrees. Then Army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha insisted that the new defence minister must be a general, an apparent matter-of-fact statement but, with a not-so-good history between him and the upcoming new government, it must have caused Yingluck considerable anxiety all the same. Whatever happens next, Yingluck must have realised as much as anybody else that the issue of government-military relations is here to stay, regardless of who takes the hot Cabinet seat.

Who can be the "peacemaker", one who can reconcile the Pheu Thai camp and the armed forces? Even a less ambitious question still sounds exhaustive: Who can be the defence minister who won't make things worse between both sides?

Picking the defence minister was never easy, otherwise the likes of Chuan Leekpai and Samak Sundaravej would not have had to take the post while also serving as prime minister. It's much more difficult for Yingluck, however. She is a woman, to begin with, and whether Thai society is a sexist one or not, the Thai armed forces are not prepared for the big change of having a female defence minister.

Secondly, her Pheu Thai Party and its red-shirted supporters have not been on good terms with the military. Prayuth, in particular, virtually asked voters to consider other choices before the election.

Thirdly, but maybe most importantly, Yingluck is a sister of Thaksin Shinawatra. Practically, that is enough said.

Yingluck's denial on the double-post scenario did not make the issue confronting her any easier. Some names have been mentioned and their pros and cons debated. Whether you can condone the military's influence in politics or not, the reality is that the defence portfolio will be the thing to watch when the new government is formed.

Incumbent Prawit Wongsuwan has interestingly been tipped by some to maintain his post, although it would raise eyebrows for one man to serve as defence minister under two different ruling parties. That is not to mention that he's closely linked with Newin Chidchob and the Bhum Jai Thai Party, which will soon be in the opposition bloc.

Controversially, ex-Army chief and former coup-maker Anupong Paochinda has become one of the candidates. Rumours have it that, since the 2006 military take-over that he was a part of, Anupong has somehow fostered secret ties with the politician he had overthrown. Whether the gossip about their cosy relations are true or not, Anupong as defence minister in the Yingluck government would be nothing short of explosive. Among more credible candidates is former supreme commander Samphao Chusri. A few years ago, he missed out on the top Army post because his "wide connections" were deemed as possible obstacles to "de-politicisation" of the Thai military. That "liability" seems to have turned into an asset now, as the fragile post-election Thai political scene requires someone who knows all rival sides and is not particularly liked or disliked by anyone.

There are a few weeks left for Yingluck, and the possibility of a surprise choice can't be dismissed. The bottom line, however, is that while she can kind of take it easy when it comes to some Cabinet portfolios, it's imperative that Yingluck - if she's given a clean bill of health by the EC, choose her defence chief wisely.

-- The Nation 2011-07-17

[Thailand]

The military already dictating what needs to be done and who should do it is already a bad sign for the PTP.

And as the military have categorically denied any chance of a coup you can bet that it is becoming more of a possibility.

TIT

[eezergood]

Any one care to venture a bet as to when ???

[whybother]

You don't think that there would be a general somewhere that would be a Thaksin supporter and 'suitable' to be minister? All they are asking for is a military person. They didn't say anything about who he should support.

[nurofiend]

Any one care to venture a bet as to when ???

i reckon if this new government ever does get started it won't last long

who knows? i might be proven wrong

[hammered]

Any one care to venture a bet as to when ???

i reckon if this new government ever does get started it won't last long

who knows? i might be proven wrong

That could result in chaos unless of course the government decides to renew its mandate and there is one school of thought that thinks they may do this and soon after the 111 are back.

As to the choice being difficult, they also have to please all the rotated out officers if they are polticially sensible. However, most analysts seem to state that the reason for virtually every Thai coup attempt has been when the group in control felt their power was about to be removed although personally Im not sure a coup could be pulled off right now, and the chances of a peaceful one would seem to be very low. Not of course that anyone who believes in democracy would want to see such an event especially when the people have just chosen in a resounding manner a government of their own liking

[nurofiend]

a coup would be detrimental to thailand indeed

[Buchholz]

a news headline report that she would double as defence minister

[kuffki]

You don't think that there would be a general somewhere that would be a Thaksin supporter and 'suitable' to be minister? All they are asking for is a military person. They didn't say anything about who he should support.

Whoever Mr Thaksin says to appoint, this is who will be the defense minister

and who ever Mr Thaksin says to dismiss or demote, is who will probably try to stage a coup

[eezergood]

a coup would be detrimental to thailand indeed

since when have the masses cared about this? or had the forsight past the next bottle of Whiskey.....

[Buchholz]

You don't think that there would be a general somewhere that would be a Thaksin supporter and 'suitable' to be minister? All they are asking for is a military person.

DONE (it was all pre-viewed in April)

We already had two Thaksin proxies, the late k. Samak and k. Thaksin's brother-in-law k. Somchai. Mostly remembered for leading a government with main aim 'get back Thaksin'. Remembered by some only, it seems

That's ok, anyone not remembering are reminded by the forthcoming Defence Minister, that there will be absolutely no change in the focus by Thaksin-Proxy, version 3.0

Former Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces (appointed by his cousin, Thaksin) General Chaisit Shinawatra

He indicated that his cousin, Thaksin, will be the one to choose the Pheu Thai Party candidate for the position of PM.

He goes on to say that Thaksin will only return to Thailand when he is positive that he will not have to serve any of his adjudicated prison time.

If the PTP were to win, they will seek avenues to exonerate him from that sentence.

Edited July 17, 2011 by Buchholz

[geriatrickid]

I hope they pick a General that has the best regimental band in Thailand. They'll need a good band to lead the parade once the much loved and admired former PM returns to meet the cheering crowds.

[Buchholz]

I hope they pick a General that has the best regimental band in Thailand. They'll need a good band to lead the parade once the much loved and admired former PM returns to meet the cheering crowds.

Perhaps they could help out...

"Military Band available in Dubai for bookings" :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAgzYG0cs28

[eezergood]

I hope they pick a General that has the best regimental band in Thailand. They'll need a good band to lead the parade once the much loved and admired former PM returns to meet the cheering crowds.

Never a truer word spoken in jest!

[aaacorp]

This general Prayuth should really admit he rules the country....

[chuang]

Amazing Thailand... the head of the government could not appoints it's own minister...

[sirchai]

The military already dictating what needs to be done and who should do it is already a bad sign for the PTP.

And as the military have categorically denied any chance of a coup you can bet that it is becoming more of a possibility.

TIT

Thirdly, but maybe most importantly, Yingluck is a sister of Thaksin Shinawatra. Practically, that is enough said.