The (Near) Imminent Collapse Of The (Southern ) Euro

[Ricardo]

IMO The Greek economy has always depended upon being able to devalue 10-20% every year, so that it remained a cheap tourist-destination, and this kept them running. But once they joined the Euro, the option was no-longer available, and this was always going to be a traumatic change !

It was explained to me, when visiting Greece a few years back & bemoaning the high-cost of everything, that they had upgraded to an EU-standard-of-living, but therefore with EU-prices. Also that half of the cost of hosting the Olympics had gone in corruption, and that the ordinary-people objected to now being asked to pay for all that, one can sympathise.

If there is no wish or ability to set their own house-in-order, and the Germans are understandably unwilling to continue to carry the economic-millstone, then the simplest answer is surely for Greece to drop out of the Euro-zone, and revert to the old order-of-things ?

If you can opt to join the Euro-zone, then why not similarly be able to decide to opt-out, if the economic-pain is too high ? Much as the UK dropped-out from the precursor-to-the-Euro 'currency-snake'.

[aneliane]

The 0.05 % tax on financial transactions that has been voted by European Parliament, would generate 250 Billions of Euros per year, If applied it would :

- Get the European States out of their debts

- Avoid austerity packages

- Make the real responsible of this crisis pay : ie the financial system

[farang000999]

What has to happen now is either massive deflation or massive inflation. The entire global economy is linked together. The debt cannot be paid off in real terms.

Default/Bankruptcy = Deflation

Print Away Your Debts = Inflation

The ECB can print Euros. Germany and the creditors will charge the PIGS an arm in the leg and their leaders instead of doing the right thing and defaulting will allow them to pilfer their nation's assets.

Ben Bernanke has crossed his heart and swore that he will never allow deflation to occur. He says he will dump money from a helicopter before that happens, thus the monikor Helicopter Ben.

No, China and its ghost cities are not the exception. People sayings stuff like "China is going to sell its dollars and crash America" must really have their head in the sand. The USA/EU is on the ground in the Middle East. They now own Egypt and Iraq directly, soon to be Libya. Then Syria. Saudi Arabia, they can take that country down in a month if they so desire. This is the world we live in. Oil is the name of the game and unless China wants to stop driving cars they will have no choice but to play ball. Also, lets be honest, China needs its rubber duck customers more than they need rubber ducks. What does China produce that is so vital to the global economy? The top 10% of China is benefiting handsomely from the current system the rest of slaves.

Disclaimer: I am invested heavily in gold.

[farang000999]

If you can opt to join the Euro-zone, then why not similarly be able to decide to opt-out, if the economic-pain is too high ? Much as the UK dropped-out from the precursor-to-the-Euro 'currency-snake'.

Because their creditors want their pound of flesh.

Iceland defaulted. It is very clearly the best choice.

[Seri]

If the economy in these countries (Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland) is so bad, it baffles me to see the following YTD tourist arrivals (source: tourism.go.th):

• Italy: +16% in tourist arrivals (from 112,780 to 131,193)
• Spain: +47% (from 41,847 to 61,452)
• Ireland: +5% (from 38,684 to 40,802)

And the other countries are also posting record tourist numbers, such as:

• France: +16% (from 313,253 to 364,842)
• Germany: +7% (from 392,483 to 420,865)
• Russia: +79% (from 346,750 to 619,723)

And businesses like restaurants, bookstores and others are all complaining of a lack of tourist dollar.

Or is it that our friends from the Ministry of Tourism & Sports are just inflating the numbers to get bigger budgets?

"Miracle Thailand"!

Edited September 7, 2011 by Seri

[Trembly]

Could be a disaster all round. Germany desperately needs to keep the Euro together. A reversion to the DM or even a "northern euro" would bring money flooding in and render a lot of German exports prohibitively expensive.

Look how the Swiss moved yesterday to weaken the Swiss Franc citing the same fears, its been described by some as the largest single foreign exchange move they have ever seen.

Dangerous times.

This wouldn't really be the horrible situation you imply. Germany would then have the option of voluntarily devaluing the DM just as the Swiss are doing, vs. the enforced weakness implied by remaining in the Euro.

I laugh when I hear the bankers say there is a liquidity crisis. There is more than enough money sloshing around the world already. What is lacking is solid investment opportunities, because it is now painfully clear that living within our means requires us to reduce consumption. Over production and too much growth is the problem, not liquidity.

All currencies are essentially doomed because of this. We need a very, very painful correction and alot less "stuff" before we can get back to any kind of realistic economy. Interestingly, the mega corporations were worried about this exact problem in the 1920's. People seemed to already have most of what they needed, and there just weren't enough new markets to keep producing. Then Freud's nephew Bernays stumbled onto the idea of using subconscious desires to turn otherwise responsible citizens into mindless consumers via the magic of propaganda in the form of advertising, and catastrophe was averted...for a while.

That social upheaval from a century ago is now coming home to roost. There is way too much stuff. In order to recover, we need to make less. If Germany is worried about a flood of money coming in to a shrinking economy, then they can print and accept inflation just the way the US is currently doing it. Or, they can decide to withdraw money from the economy and accept the hardships that goes along with all the loan defaults because in the end the economy needs to shrink.

However you look at it, hard times are ahead. We need to recognize that people have to live within their means, and that requires dramatic downsizing in all areas. The Euro is going to be destroyed no matter what the politicians would like because fundamentally different countries in the EU are going to recognize the unmistakable reality of this at different times. And you can't possibly have a shared currency without a shared social myth.

(My bold) :

Have you been watching this :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyPzGUsYyKM

? :jap: Edited September 7, 2011 by Trembly

[nellyp]

I think that countries like Portugal and Greece joined the EU so that they could enjoy a better and easier ride. Being dragged along on the coattails of more successful, better managed economies. Now that they are faltering because the Euro fanatics wanted to spread the gospel, people in Europe are complaining. You all made your beds so now lie in them.

The economies encouraging these poorer relatives should either bale them out and not lend them money or allow them to leave the Euro. Countries who could be dragged down by all of this should be allowed to ignore it altogether and make sure their own economies can survive.

It makes me sick that the only people who will come out of this smiling will once again be involved in Finance. people and organisations should not be allowed to trade countries and economies into bankruptcy!!!!! AAARRRGGGGHHHHHHHH. OK I've cooled back down. But you get my drift.

[MAJIC]

While the western countries continue to embrace socialism and live well beyond their means, Thailand continues to stumble along and produce more than they use.

It should eventually become obvious that you can't continue to spend money that you don't have. You can live on credit for a while but eventually your creditor wants his money back.

Will Thailand follow the western style and embrace socialism? Time will tell.

I think it was Maggie Thatcher who said that the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money.

And the problem with Capitilism is that eventually all the peoples spare money has been sucked in by the greedy Banks,Financial businesses and Taxes,leaving little or no exspendable incomes, just like now in the UK,

Boom and Bust, and the ordinary people pick up the Checkbin!

[endure]

South of the border I believe it's even worse, but in the day of politcal correctness gone crazy I must be a racist if disagree with mass immigration in this country, you can't even ask for a black coffee nowadays without being labelled racist!

You do have a point about immigration but undermine your own credibility by making nonsensical remarks about black coffee.

[IMA_FARANG]

I think that countries like Portugal and Greece joined the EU so that they could enjoy a better and easier ride.

Absolute nonsense.

You obviously have no knowledge of the real working of economics...not the Capitalist b------t the banks and wealthy currency speculators spout.

I was working in Greece when they were swiched from Dracma to the Euro. The cost of living increased by 30% because of prices being stated in Euro rather than Dracma locally. When the Drama was the currency being able to state prices in Dracma made German goods (as an example) less popular in Greece than the same but cheaper... in Dracma terms... Greek products. Because of that, German products gained market penetration against the local Greek products when they both had to be stated in Euro. Because they were both priced in Euro, the German flash products...usually marketed by big mega-markets...started to edge out the local Greek products. This was especially true in food products. Over the 5 years or so food prices in greece increased by 30 to 50 percent.

And, exactly as the international Capitalist cartel intended, the smaller Greek farmers were forced out of business by the larger German producers who had the advantage of large marketing budjets and distribution networks the smaller Greek producers didn't.

Bottom line: the switch to Euro from Dracma made costs MORE expensive for the average Greek wage-earner and make it harder for him/her to make ends meet.

Exactly as the wealthy Euro capitalists and currency specualtors wanted it to.

I was there, and I saw it happen.

I'm sure that Portugal and Spain probably experienced the same thing. The net result of the Eurozone and the Euro as the currency of choice has transferred wealth from the poorer southern European economies into the richer northern European economies.

Exactly as the richer countries and their ruling Capitalist clique had intended it to be at the time.

[roamer]

I think that countries like Portugal and Greece joined the EU so that they could enjoy a better and easier ride.

Absolute nonsense.

You obviously have no knowledge of the real working of economics...not the Capitalist b------t the banks and wealthy currency speculators spout.

I was working in Greece when they were swiched from Dracma to the Euro. The cost of living increased by 30% because of prices being stated in Euro rather than Dracma locally. When the Drama was the currency being able to state prices in Dracma made German goods (as an example) less popular in Greece than the same but cheaper... in Dracma terms... Greek products. Because of that, German products gained market penetration against the local Greek products when they both had to be stated in Euro. Because they were both priced in Euro, the German flash products...usually marketed by big mega-markets...started to edge out the local Greek products. This was especially true in food products. Over the 5 years or so food prices in greece increased by 30 to 50 percent.

And, exactly as the international Capitalist cartel intended, the smaller Greek farmers were forced out of business by the larger German producers who had the advantage of large marketing budjets and distribution networks the smaller Greek producers didn't.

Bottom line: the switch to Euro from Dracma made costs MORE expensive for the average Greek wage-earner and make it harder for him/her to make ends meet.

Exactly as the wealthy Euro capitalists and currency specualtors wanted it to.

I was there, and I saw it happen.

I'm sure that Portugal and Spain probably experienced the same thing. The net result of the Eurozone and the Euro as the currency of choice has transferred wealth from the poorer southern European economies into the richer northern European economies.

Exactly as the richer countries and their ruling Capitalist clique had intended it to be at the time.

Yes I witnessed similar events in Spain. The Euro has also really hit the tourism sector, its no coincidence that it is Turkey, outside the Eurozone, that is gaining massive market sector increases at the expense of places like Greece & Spain,

It's easy to see why the Euro is so essential to Germany, even if the population tends not to see it that way. If the markets don't bring down the Euro I think the people will, you can't fool all of them all of the time.

Edited September 7, 2011 by roamer

[yogi100]

South of the border I believe it's even worse, but in the day of politcal correctness gone crazy I must be a racist if disagree with mass immigration in this country, you can't even ask for a black coffee nowadays without being labelled racist!

You do have a point about immigration but undermine your own credibility by making nonsensical remarks about black coffee.

'Nonsensical'. Not really, In London schools are no longer to use the term blackboard, it now has to be referred to as a chalkboard and when teaching pupils about the Back Death teachers are instructed to only use the term 'Bubonic Plague'.

[StreetCowboy]

I thought it was the same Euro throughout the participating EU countries?

Yes it is, but OP is referring to the southern countries reverting to their former currencies to avoid collapse of the €.

The countries that are having the biggest concerns are Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Yermanee :jap:

Ireland is hardly southern????

JH

It is in Ireland

SC

[StreetCowboy]

The 0.05 % tax on financial transactions that has been voted by European Parliament, would generate 250 Billions of Euros per year, If applied it would :

- Get the European States out of their debts

- Avoid austerity packages

- Make the real responsible of this crisis pay : ie the financial system

When you say "the financial system", I take it you mean my pension?

SC

[thaibeachlovers]

I was in Ireland last year, and was astounded that a whole nation could be so greedy.

IMO the whole debacle was completely self inflicted, and I found it hard to have any sympathy for a country that spent borrowed money to build massive vanity projects in Dublin, while doing nothing to make the life of the poorest better.

I fully understand why Britain is bailing them out, as if they don't, the UK will be flooded with penniless Irish moving over to look for work.

Edited December 2, 2011 by astral
No need to quote the entire post. Just pick out the relevant points, please - Astral

[thaibeachlovers]

The 0.05 % tax on financial transactions that has been voted by European Parliament, would generate 250 Billions of Euros per year, If applied it would :

- Get the European States out of their debts

- Avoid austerity packages

- Make the real responsible of this crisis pay : ie the financial system

Making the financial institutions pay will never happen. The US is supposed to be a capitalist country, so why did they bail out private institutions? Just look at who is running the west and you will know.

They know that financiers commited crimes, but how many court cases have there been? ZERO. ( I'm not including Madoff- he took rich people's money, which is why he got done ).

[norrona]

The 0.05 % tax on financial transactions that has been voted by European Parliament, would generate 250 Billions of Euros per year, If applied it would :

- Get the European States out of their debts

- Avoid austerity packages

- Make the real responsible of this crisis pay : ie the financial system

what you mean the politicians and EU members who care more about their careers and this Euro currency continuing rather than admitting defeat and going away with their tails between their legs!

You mean the lenders across the golbe who were lending money at high interest rates to whomever would take it even though they really couldn't afford it and had saved nothing or put nothing down as collateral?

Or do you mean the greedy people who took the money in the first place without even a thought of if times got tougher/leaner would they be able to

keep up the repayments?

Or do you just mean the banks?

As where I come from the financial system is the only thing keeping this country alive and not falling down flat on it's face!

I suggest my dear in your spare time you search a certain 'Nigel Farage' speaking at the EU members and hear what he has to say....might be a bit right winged and truthful for your socialist ears though!

[Mosha]

South of the border I believe it's even worse, but in the day of politcal correctness gone crazy I must be a racist if disagree with mass immigration in this country, you can't even ask for a black coffee nowadays without being labelled racist!

You do have a point about immigration but undermine your own credibility by making nonsensical remarks about black coffee.

'Nonsensical'. Not really, In London schools are no longer to use the term blackboard, it now has to be referred to as a chalkboard and when teaching pupils about the Back Death teachers are instructed to only use the term 'Bubonic Plague'.

Brother's BIL was told to order coffee with or without cream, not white or black. His bosses were the local council. I watched a UK educational program and the marker board (white) was being referred to as a white board.

[Mosha]

The idea of the Euro was sound, it's implementation was not. If you have a common currency, then you should have a common social agenda. At least now pensioners have to turn up in person to register annually for their pension in Greece.

[JurgenG]

IMO this crisis is a good thing, it will strengthen the Euro zone

A lot a needed measures that will never have been accepted during good times are now passed. The German are now able to impose some well needed discipline, with a liitle help from the French. They play hard ball but I think it's going to pay off at the end. Don't forget, it's the only country in Europe with the experience of the integration of two opposite economies, East and West Germany. And, as now, strong opposition from abroad from countries that was not so happy to see a reunified Germany back.

And we got rid of Berlusconi !

[StreetCowboy]

IMO this crisis is a good thing, it will strengthen the Euro zone

A lot a needed measures that will never have been accepted during good times are now passed. The German are now able to impose some well needed discipline, with a liitle help from the French. They play hard ball but I think it's going to pay off at the end. Don't forget, it's the only country in Europe with the experience of the integration of two opposite economies, East and West Germany. And, as now, strong opposition from abroad from countries that was not so happy to see a reunified Germany back.

And we got rid of Berlusconi !

I'm not sure that I really understand what all the fuss is about. What's the difference between reneging on your loans in Euros, or devaluing your currency to destroy your creditors' value?

What's the difference between deflation and devaluation, other than that the latter cripples your pensioners? Of course, in the Euro, the governments may be forced to cut pensions if they are more generous than the government can afford - but at least the pensioners' own frugal savings will not be inflated away to poverty.

For too long, governments have been buying votes with their childrens' earnings... but now it turns out the children were not successful enough to pay off all those commitments...

Let's hope I get a better return on the school fees.

SC

[harryfrompattaya]

I thought it was the same Euro throughout the participating EU countries?

If the Euro crashes it will be better as their will be less Europeans looking corrupt the Thai's

[StreetCowboy]

I thought it was the same Euro throughout the participating EU countries?

If the Euro crashes it will be better as their will be less Europeans looking corrupt the Thai's

The worst corruption is the damage that they do to our language, with their incorrect use of homophones and sticking their apostrophes where they're not wanted.

Let us hope that once the continentals have quit these shores, our forum will be blessed with untainted grammar, innit.

SC

[GrahamF]

I thought it was the same Euro throughout the participating EU countries?

If the Euro crashes it will be better as their will be less Europeans looking corrupt the Thai's

The worst corruption is the damage that they do to our language, with their incorrect use of homophones and sticking their apostrophes where they're not wanted.

Let us hope that once the continentals have quit these shores, our forum will be blessed with untainted grammar, innit.

SC

There such a bunch of loosers!

[StreetCowboy]

I thought it was the same Euro throughout the participating EU countries?

If the Euro crashes it will be better as their will be less Europeans looking corrupt the Thai's

The worst corruption is the damage that they do to our language, with their incorrect use of homophones and sticking their apostrophes where they're not wanted.

Let us hope that once the continentals have quit these shores, our forum will be blessed with untainted grammar, innit.

SC

There such a bunch of loosers!

Is that 'loosers', to rhyme with 'troosers'?

You'll enjoy this if you're one for a bit of fiddling... you might want to skip the first minute

http://www.youtube.c...feature=related

SC

[theblether]

I thought it was the same Euro throughout the participating EU countries?

If the Euro crashes it will be better as their will be less Europeans looking corrupt the Thai's

That's a cracker

[elliss]

what about the BIB ,

less farangs to fine .

i really like the salute they give me

after handing over 200 bht .

kop koun kap .

:jap:

[buddy]

The 0.05 % tax on financial transactions that has been voted by European Parliament, would generate 250 Billions of Euros per year, If applied it would :

- Get the European States out of their debts

- Avoid austerity packages

- Make the real responsible of this crisis pay : ie the financial system

And 85% of that tax money will come from the City of London.

It,ll hardly touch France or Germany thats why they are so enthusiastic about it.

[KeyserSoze01]

If the EU folds, the entire financial system goes with it, worldwide. The problems in the EU make the 2008 financial crisis led by the US look like chump change.

During the 2008 meltdown in the US, the estimated exposure to financial institutions for credit default swaps was 3 trillion USD due to leverage restrictions on US based investment banks. The estimated exposure if the EU folds is 10 times that amount -or- 30 trillion USD as the EU banks have levered up to over 35-to-1. Doesn't take a rocket scientist long to do the math and see where this road goes.

Thailand is a good place to ride out the impending doom that is hanging over the western world. Better to be in a place where this is a subsistence economy and food to eat.

[travelmann]

System meltdown eminent.

Massive government debt in many European countries.

Even more debt in the U.S.A.

Tick, tick, tick. The Chinese starting to withdraw the purchase of U.S. and European government bonds as they realise they are actually worthless.

Tick, tick, tick. Gold has kept going higher for more than 10 years and the many amateurs in this world keep saying it is a bubble set to burst.

Tick, tick, tick. In a few short years we will all be wishing we bought gold when it was $1900 an ounce.

You cant eat or drink Gold though can you?