Tropical Storm Nate forms in the Gulf of Mexico, forecast to strengthen

[News_Editor]

Tropical Storm Nate forms in the Gulf of Mexico, forecast to strengthen

2011-09-08 06:51:45 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Nate formed in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico on late Wednesday afternoon, forecasters said, and the storm is expected to strengthen before making landfall.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Tuesday morning when a low pressure area in the southern Gulf of Mexico became better organized. It rapidly strengthened into a tropical storm on Wednesday.

"Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche has become better organized with curved banding features noted," said NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake. "Surface observations from land and PEMEX oil rigs, along with Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft data, show that the low-level circulation is well defined, with little temperature gradient noted. Thus advisories are initiated on this system."

As of 4 p.m. CDT (2100 GMT) on Wednesday, the center of Nate was located about 125 miles (200 kilometers) west of Campeche, a state located in southeast Mexico. It is drifting toward the east-southeast at a speed of around 2 miles (4 kilometers) per hour.

Maximum sustained winds of Nate are near 45 miles (75 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts, and the system could become a hurricane by Friday. "Nate is forecast to be over very warm waters with little vertical wind shear for the next few days," Blake said. "The only significant inhibiting factor is a large area of dry air seen in water vapor images northwest of the system. However, this dry air will take some time to work its way into the center, if at all, in a low shear environment. Most models show intensification throughout the forecast period."

Nate is not forecast to move much throughout Thursday. "Nate is in an area of very weak steering flow between the remnants of [Tropical Storm] Lee over the eastern United States and a ridge over northern Mexico," Blake explained. "Little net motion is expected for the next day or so due to this pattern. After that time, a ridge over the western Caribbean is forecast to build, which should cause Nate to move more toward the north, eventually bending to the left as the cyclone comes under the influence of the Mexican ridge."

While NHC models, as of Wednesday afternoon, expect Nate to make landfall just north of Tampico, Mexico on late Monday or early Tuesday morning, forecasts during the weekend will better determine which areas are at risk.

Because of Nate's close proximity to land, tropical storm warnings have been issued for the coast of Mexico from Chilitepec to Celestun. "Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight, and could continue into Thursday," NHC senior hurricane specialist Jack Beven said.

Beven said Nate is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters) with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches (20 centimeters) over the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and southern Veracruz. A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet (30 to 91 centimeters) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the warning area.

Nate is the fourteenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Maria which formed in the far eastern Atlantic earlier on Wednesday and is forecast to head towards the Caribbean.

According to figures released last month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 14 to 19 named storms, with seven to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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