Buy Thb Now Or Later

[bmanly]

After reading the post on speculating on the THB I thought I'd ask this question. I'm in Australia now and our dollar is appreciating against the USD and the THB at an alarming rate. The so called professionals are saying it will go to 80 US cents and I hope it will go up against the THB too.

Does anyone have an opinion on whether they think the AUD will get even stronger against the THB or whether now would be the time to buy. I spend 6 Months a year in Thailand and it would be handy to set up my Thai Bank account with a nice deposit.

One more question, I have a Visa Electron card against my Thai Bank account, what's to stop me say loading my account at 30 baht to the dollar and then if it drops back to 25 baht to the AUD using my visa card in OZ to pull out AUD? That would be an easy way of making a profit wouldn't it?

[seykota]

Hi, personally I believe the AUD does have potential to move towards 0.80, however I am also very happy to be getting around 29 baht (after Visa card conversion fee) at present. Transfer some of your AUD now & be ready to move more on a regular basis (Dollar Cost Averaging).

Easiest mistake is to attempt to I.D. tops & bottoms.

2nd point, bad idea. Get your Aussie into Baht in Thailand & be happy.

pete

[Guest IT Manager]

Far be it from me to point out that setting up the accounts is fine, but don't hold your breath waiting for interest.

[samran]

well just remember that at the height of the asian crisis the AUD THB rate was 36 or 37 baht to the dollar and that was when confidence in the Thai economy was at an all time low. That was the extreme of extremes.

Dunno how much steam the Aussie peso has left. Not to say that it will go down, just that it wont appreciate much more. The US economy is starting to pick up the pace, so even though interest rates there are lower, people will be attracted to the US rebound, stabalising the dollar and thus the baht (which is still qausi pegged to the US dollar).

But then again, I am an economist...so don't beleive me. I actually don't beleive me. ;-)

[maerim]

But then again, I am an economist.

We all have a cross to bear.

Today £1.00 will get you 70 Thai baht, pre crash 1997 about 40-41 baht to the GBP

[Khun ?]

Anyone buying into cheaper markets with strong currency. Good up market with good exchange could be a real kicker. They are still pushing income investments

and saying they will do good even if the market drops. I guess due to the amount of baby boomers retiring this decade pensions need to be supplemented.

Any Ideas. What about selling my Euro and GBP funds that have moved up substantialy this year. My base currency was U.S. $ and I plan on going back to it.

Thanks for any info/recommendations.

[SoCal]

My guys in the US say that it will not be a great year for the Thai market. Certain opportunities of course, but not as an aggregate.

Predominant reason seems to be the falling dollar, with the US being responsible for so much of Thailands export.

Now if you think other countries will pick up the slack, then remember that PRC and HKG are pegged to the USD, so their cost of goods are plummeting at the same rate as the Euro vis a vis the USD.

Good luck on your gambling.

As for me, I'm sticking with my backyard, and quit asking me where I live.

[Butterfly]

My guys in the US say that it will not be a great year for the Thai market. Certain opportunities of course, but not as an aggregate.

Predominant reason seems to be the falling dollar, with the US being responsible for so much of Thailands export.

Now if you think other countries will pick up the slack, then remember that PRC and HKG are pegged to the USD, so their cost of goods are plummeting at the same rate as the Euro vis a vis the USD.

Good luck on your gambling.

As for me, I'm sticking with my backyard, and quit asking me where I live.

hey, I actually agree with you on that one SoCal but I won't put my money on the dollar still.

[Khun ?]

It is time.

Get out of eastern european equities and Euro properties and move to retirment account in thailand. I think the gains on investments and currency warrants the move.

It will be nice to have the nest egg in a currency where it will be spent. No more worries on the currency exchange will be worth it. Euro and GBP to baht forget about the $. This should cover part time living in Thailand for years regardless of

the exchange. $ to GBP/Euro growth and then baht. Sold today thats one retirement decision done. Life is grand

[SoCal]

BFly, not sure I would put my money in the dollar yet either, but I have little choice.

One thing for sure is that most things in economics are cyclical, and as you like to point out, we are only one admin away from turning it around.

[bmanly]

OK Guys apart from differentiating views on this subject here I have mates in Thailand with totally opposing views too. I have have 1 camp saying buying condos and investing is Thailand is profitable and another camp say the Asian crisis will hit Thailand again and "never invest anything in Thailand"! 2 intelligent permanent residents of Thailand and poles apart.

I think the the prudent thing for me to do is to set my own limits which is what the AUD will do against the THB. I have set myself an exchange rate that I will move on and that is 30 baht per 1 AUD on the BBL TT rate, that has not been cracked yet. If and or when it is I'm sending my AUD over to my account to be used at a later stage when I get there.

One thing I have learnt in finance is that when every so called guru says one thing it is to go the opposite way, thanks for all your worthwhile commets anyway.

PS: If the AUD does hit 80c USD I will be buying it no doubt and I will sit on it as long as takes for me to see it turn around. The biggest economy in the world "the good ol USA" is in my opinion never going to be a basket case. Our currency was getting 47c USD not so long ago and now it's 77c. Only common sense will tell you "this will not last forever" Chok Dee Guys.

[Khun ?]

If your happy with the exchange you get then move it. If you do not put it into something making money then it really does not matter a whole lot if your currency

has had a big run up, which it has. If the thai economy is going to grow 8% this year and 10% next definetly their currency has to get stronger no matter how much they try to keep it weak.