'Obsolete' Weather Radar Blamed As Full Dams Worsen Thai Floods

[koosdeboer]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

No, it isn't. Radar info is for today not tomorrow, how far a radar reaches do you think?. That's why you need satellites which provide not only radar but also visual, water vapor, short wave and long wave infra red info.

[ARGUSEYE]

This article was released by BLOOMBERG??? What an utter rubbish! I am used to come across really questionable journalism in the Thai press. (sometimes actually funny), but this

by BLOOMBERG???

Just repeating nonsense like "If I can get this, (the new radar system) I can help the people" wihout following up on the quote is bad journalism, and at least the "Farang" of the two jurnos signing responsible

should know this!

BLOOMBERG, stick to reporting from the world's stockmarkets, the weather is too unpredictable for you!!

[Thaddeus]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

Radar will only tell you what is happening now or what could happen in the very near future.

One could postulate that the data for long range forecasts comes from satellite images. "Oh look, there's a very large tropical depression 1,000km away and it's heading in our direction. Do you think it may rain?"

And when you have had one TD after another, after another, after another, hitting you squarely in the face, do you think we may get more rain than last year?

Maybe Somchai the Weatherman needs his own satellite, as he clearly wasn't taking any notice of anyone else's.

[Nisa]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

That leaves us wondering why our intrepid leaders did not look for the best way to work with what they had back in 2009 when they first noticed that some other people had newer and shinier radar equipment than they did. Like for instance finding other sources of that information, or even just recognizing that they may have to monitor their decisions more closely. And what has radar got to do with telling how much water is already in the dam? If they already knew that they had to be extra careful because they were making life and death decisions with limited data, then why did they go the other way and ignore what was right in front of them? They made a bad decision not once but every single day that they failed to correct their original bad decision. Was there not a single voice that said "hey, if things continue to go pear shaped, then a lot of people are going to die?" or did they have to wait for the coroners' reports to notice that this was not a typical season? The truth is that even if their only weather instrument was a wet hankie, they still failed the people. Their first obligation is to the safety of the citizens. Or did they miss that lesson in their "how to get a ripe political appointment" class?

So let's give the boys the fact that with better equipment it would be easier to do a better job, but the fact remains that even with NO equipment they still should have done a better job. There simply is no excuse, and the "my radar was out of date" story is not even a good explanation. This wasn't a matter of opening the gates an hour late, a day late, or even a week late. Good radar will never be a substitute for good people. The people that are trying to hoodwink the people into giving them a ton of money have demonstrated by their willingness to do such a tremendously wrong job that even the most modern equipment would have been ignored just like they ignored the rising water. Much more than the radar must be replaced before the people can feel safe from a repeat of this disaster.

Governments typically invest in what will get their people happy to reelect them. Worrying about a 50-year worst monsoon season after coming off 50-year worst drought wasn't going to make the top concerns. This is normal throughout the world. Do you think New Orleans didn't know they had a problem and continue to have one?

Modern radar is simply one way to help but the bottom line is the flooding was a result of long and heavy rains. Since the beginning of time there has been flooding and there always will be. As populations become more dense and more people opt to buy and build in flood plains then the damage becomes more severe. Disasters happen and it is looney to pretend there will always not be natural disasters around the globe that cause destruction. There is tons of infrastructure in place in Thailand that prevents flooding and reduces risk but there will never be a situation where it is completely prevented. Even if such a technology was available, there are many other areas where people want to see the government invest money. People across the globe tend to forget about these rare events be it an earthquake, flood, tornado or hurricane after their life goes back to normal and prefer to always complain and demand action and the governments full attention to whatever is the current problem. Thailand has and will continue to make huge accomplishments in protecting from floods but nothing will ever prevent them anywhere in the foreseeable future. Thailand is simply always going to be prone to flooding and as the population increases and more of the natural flood plains and area is covered by pavement, it will only increase the potential for flooding.

[laocowboy2]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

That leaves us wondering why our intrepid leaders did not look for the best way to work with what they had back in 2009 when they first noticed that some other people had newer and shinier radar equipment than they did. Like for instance finding other sources of that information, or even just recognizing that they may have to monitor their decisions more closely. And what has radar got to do with telling how much water is already in the dam? If they already knew that they had to be extra careful because they were making life and death decisions with limited data, then why did they go the other way and ignore what was right in front of them? They made a bad decision not once but every single day that they failed to correct their original bad decision. Was there not a single voice that said "hey, if things continue to go pear shaped, then a lot of people are going to die?" or did they have to wait for the coroners' reports to notice that this was not a typical season? The truth is that even if their only weather instrument was a wet hankie, they still failed the people. Their first obligation is to the safety of the citizens. Or did they miss that lesson in their "how to get a ripe political appointment" class?

So let's give the boys the fact that with better equipment it would be easier to do a better job, but the fact remains that even with NO equipment they still should have done a better job. There simply is no excuse, and the "my radar was out of date" story is not even a good explanation. This wasn't a matter of opening the gates an hour late, a day late, or even a week late. Good radar will never be a substitute for good people. The people that are trying to hoodwink the people into giving them a ton of money have demonstrated by their willingness to do such a tremendously wrong job that even the most modern equipment would have been ignored just like they ignored the rising water. Much more than the radar must be replaced before the people can feel safe from a repeat of this disaster.

Governments typically invest in what will get their people happy to reelect them. Worrying about a 50-year worst monsoon season after coming off 50-year worst drought wasn't going to make the top concerns. This is normal throughout the world. Do you think New Orleans didn't know they had a problem and continue to have one?

Modern radar is simply one way to help but the bottom line is the flooding was a result of long and heavy rains. Since the beginning of time there has been flooding and there always will be. As populations become more dense and more people opt to buy and build in flood plains then the damage becomes more severe. Disasters happen and it is looney to pretend there will always not be natural disasters around the globe that cause destruction. There is tons of infrastructure in place in Thailand that prevents flooding and reduces risk but there will never be a situation where it is completely prevented. Even if such a technology was available, there are many other areas where people want to see the government invest money. People across the globe tend to forget about these rare events be it an earthquake, flood, tornado or hurricane after their life goes back to normal and prefer to always complain and demand action and the governments full attention to whatever is the current problem. Thailand has and will continue to make huge accomplishments in protecting from floods but nothing will ever prevent them anywhere in the foreseeable future. Thailand is simply always going to be prone to flooding and as the population increases and more of the natural flood plains and area is covered by pavement, it will only increase the potential for flooding.

Slightly off-topic but a recent financing by Nakheel (Dubai bust real estate developer) was patially secured on land still below the sea - justified on grounds that reclamation is 'planned'.. Perhaps this 'innovation' will be coming to Thailand soon :-((

[Nisa]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

Radar will only tell you what is happening now or what could happen in the very near future.

One could postulate that the data for long range forecasts comes from satellite images. "Oh look, there's a very large tropical depression 1,000km away and it's heading in our direction. Do you think it may rain?"

And when you have had one TD after another, after another, after another, hitting you squarely in the face, do you think we may get more rain than last year?

Maybe Somchai the Weatherman needs his own satellite, as he clearly wasn't taking any notice of anyone else's.

Correct in terms of Radar and Satellite imagery. Bottom line being is that I don't see how anybody can argue that Thailand, given its risks of flooding and the economic impact from floods, shouldn't have the best forecasting equipment available. Again, nobody is going to stop flooding in Thailand but they can continue to work to limit the impacts.

As for blame, it is just senseless to go beyond blaming the heavy and prolonged rains but what is important is to find what could be improved and there is no one area to address when it comes to flooding be it damns, radar, building in flood plains, human development and so on ... all things need to looked at and in the end people will need to still accept sh@t happens.

[Credo]

(inquisitive):".....there simply is no excuse, and the "my radar was out of date" story is not even a good explanation. This wasn't a matter of opening the gates an hour late, a day late, or even a week late. Good radar will never be a substitute for good people."

Excellent, except with a growing population and more people and businesses in risky areas, we need the most up-to-date information. However, it takes good people...really good people and it takes cooperation. The dam people and the weather people need to cooperate, coordinate and communicate.

Edited October 17, 2011 by Credo

[drdoom6996]

Tis best to pass the blame to the weathermen than to those DAM administrators. No pun intended. This what happens when people who control the dam gates are too afraid to act preemptively to avert disasters such as this. Blamig the weather bureau is the least painful option and may even land them a hefty windfall (ha ha) such as more modern radar equipment. If I may be so bold to say - you don't need those equipment to know when to let some water out of the dam. But then common sense is not common.

So, you advocate letting water out as needed based on the current level of the dam_n? Well, then you should be happy to know that is what they did. Without proper radar and forecasting you are simply left with reacting and not strategically planning. The dam_n situation is just one of many issues that could have been handled better but the bottom line is this was a very bad monsoon season and that is what caused the flooding ... which would be much worse if the infrastructure was not in place. Thailand is just one of a number of countries having severe flooding problems from this season's monsoon.

And if you compare the infrastructure of those countries to Thailand it is just more embarrassing for Thailand.

[Nisa]

Tis best to pass the blame to the weathermen than to those DAM administrators. No pun intended. This what happens when people who control the dam gates are too afraid to act preemptively to avert disasters such as this. Blamig the weather bureau is the least painful option and may even land them a hefty windfall (ha ha) such as more modern radar equipment. If I may be so bold to say - you don't need those equipment to know when to let some water out of the dam. But then common sense is not common.

So, you advocate letting water out as needed based on the current level of the dam_n? Well, then you should be happy to know that is what they did. Without proper radar and forecasting you are simply left with reacting and not strategically planning. The dam_n situation is just one of many issues that could have been handled better but the bottom line is this was a very bad monsoon season and that is what caused the flooding ... which would be much worse if the infrastructure was not in place. Thailand is just one of a number of countries having severe flooding problems from this season's monsoon.

And if you compare the infrastructure of those countries to Thailand it is just more embarrassing for Thailand.

Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and the Philippines ???

[BuckarooBanzai]

I have a problem with the current meteorology department. If they really cared about the public it would seem that the internet broadcast of their various radar sites would be updated more than once an hour. Why not live feed. Once an hour updates, in the best of cases, is a joke and shows a lack of commitment to the public sector. These people do not know how to use what they have much less provide a transparent public service commitment. Most of their predictions likely come from western sources anyway - just like their satellite data. Thumbs down on funding new stuff until they make proper use of the old stuff.

[softgeorge]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

People that are prone to procrastinate and cannot tell you the definition of plan would see no need for forecasting equipment. Anyway, if they want to know the future, that's what fortune tellers are for.

I'm no furtune teller but if you ask me I will tell you this, If they do not take actions this flood and worse will happen again.

[animatic]

There are many sources for accurate global forecasts of SE Asian regional weather.

This was not a local forecasting issue since storms nearly the size of Thailand itself were coming across thailand after traversing neighbor countries after being track by satellites for DAYS prior to hitting landfall.

Better radars might show what's happening locally for a city or two for each system, but the real over all need to know data, was available on the internet for free to me and anyone else motivated to search it. And even more to weather services willing to pay small fees to subscribe for more in depth data.

Edited October 17, 2011 by animatic

[donmeurett]

History tells us one we learn nothing from previous mistakes. Priority right now is used submarines for the Thai Navy. They have out lived their useful life as far as Germany is conserned. Remember the Aircraft carrier they bought with the Hurriers. None of the Hurriers have flowen for a long time do to Maintance Problems it is said. The aircraft seldom leaves its dock. Good luck weather department.

[ukas]

ok good

[bkk_mike]

The radar thing isn't relevant to this year's flooding. Except possibly that it would help to tell EXACTLY where the rain was falling, which would help on the temporary movement of pumps for flooding from direct rainfall, rather than flooding from water from further upcountry.

The computer upgrade maybe makes more sense. By the time the upgrade has been requested two years ago, the computers would already have been quite dated, and weather forecasting, (like modelling nuclear explosions, and breaking encryption), is one of the few areas where there is actually a current need for super computers - it's why the Met Office in the UK has one of the fastest supercomputers in that country...

[Tanaka]

Blame anyone or anything but themselves. They could have turned into the BBC, CNN or the Australian network. They give comprehensive world weather forcasts all the time.

Not possible. Do you really mean that Thais should ask foreigners what is going to happen in Thailand??

[ResX]

There are many sources for accurate global forecasts of SE Asian regional weather.

This was not a local forecasting issue since storms nearly the size of Thailand itself were coming across thailand after traversing neighbor countries after being track by satellites for DAYS prior to hitting landfall.

Better radars might show what's happening locally for a city or two for each system, but the real over all need to know data, was available on the internet for free to me and anyone else motivated to search it. And even more to weather services willing to pay small fees to subscribe for more in depth data.

It is good for you to know that heavy rainfall will come, says 7 days ahead. But when it comes how you are going to stop it? The biggest flood that has the average recurrence interval of 50 years has the amount of water equivalent to 3 months of average rainfall for one particular catchment. Its duration could be as short as 5-7days. The only promising way you can circumvent the flood of this magnitude is by preparing your flood control reservoirs to hold the flood water and release it gradually over the next one year. Bhumibol & Sirkit reservoirs can hold up to the maximum one years of their average annual rainfalls for their catchments. They are the important structures to defense you from floods. Just improve the way these reservoirs are operated and managed. Improve their designs only if required. Thailand can solve a part of its flood related problems.

[ginjag]

Silly attempt to blame something other than hold their hands in the air and say--IT WAS OUR FAULT.

Apart from unnatural weather in the Asia area, it is still monsoon season-- more than or less rain it is forward planning that is in question. Radar blaming is BULs#it.

So much water falling is soaked up by trees and roots in natural habitat, we only have to look at the illegal logging-the clearing of areas for resorts, the clogging of drains, Pattaya rubbish..the shizen thrown into canals..the lack of maintaining defenses..the dam control-and when and when not to release water. Neglect total, incompetence sure. Again stupidity and GREED is a major fact

[serenitynow]

As has been said above radar does not predict weather but computers are used to predict it based on past and present information loaded into the software.

And that information loaded into computers is gathered from radar.

Radar will only tell you what is happening now or what could happen in the very near future.

One could postulate that the data for long range forecasts comes from satellite images. "Oh look, there's a very large tropical depression 1,000km away and it's heading in our direction. Do you think it may rain?"

And when you have had one TD after another, after another, after another, hitting you squarely in the face, do you think we may get more rain than last year?

Maybe Somchai the Weatherman needs his own satellite, as he clearly wasn't taking any notice of anyone else's.

Correct in terms of Radar and Satellite imagery. Bottom line being is that I don't see how anybody can argue that Thailand, given its risks of flooding and the economic impact from floods, shouldn't have the best forecasting equipment available. Again, nobody is going to stop flooding in Thailand but they can continue to work to limit the impacts.

As for blame, it is just senseless to go beyond blaming the heavy and prolonged rains but what is important is to find what could be improved and there is no one area to address when it comes to flooding be it damns, radar, building in flood plains, human development and so on ... all things need to looked at and in the end people will need to still accept sh@t happens.

I wonder if any of these forecasters ever bothered to look out the window, Google any of the host of weather internet sites that track tropical depressions, or called their relatives in Chiang Mai about what kind of water volumes are coming in 2 weeks time. If Thai Visa had a "Most Inane News Thread Hall of Fame", I'd be voting for this thread's inclusion.

Edited October 17, 2011 by serenitynow

[Cayenne]

Wow, this is incredible. You mean all I have do is upgrade my radar and *POOF* all my flood problems are gone?

[serenitynow]

Wow, this is incredible. You mean all I have do is upgrade my radar and *POOF* all my flood problems are gone?

Yes, and if you buy a new GPS you'll never get in another fender bender.

[carbine1125]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

so it's not really a radar, it's a crystal ball?

[OZEMADE]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

so it's not really a radar, it's a crystal ball?

Here is a crystal ball you can check out. Up to the minute Thai weather report, Rain Radar, Sat Images etc.

http://www.tmd.go.th....php?RegionID=4

[hellodolly]

I wonder if they've thought about satellite imagery. Or if they do, and somebody is looking for a plausible (??) excuse.

Somchai says he has been asking for better equipment since 2009, which would be appreciated by his current masters.

Satellite imagery would be a little beyond their capabilities.

You forget this is Thailand we are just now getting 3G :jap:

[BuckarooBanzai]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

so it's not really a radar, it's a crystal ball?

Here is a crystal ball you can check out. Up to the minute Thai weather report, Rain Radar, Sat Images etc.

http://www.tmd.go.th....php?RegionID=4

I do not consider a minimum of 1 hour refresh rates on radar "up to the minute". Do You?

[zakk9]

You don't need radar to predict that Ayuddhya and Nakhon Sawan flood every year. Because it normally only affects the poor is the main reason nothing constructive has been done over the last 40-50 years. If it flooded the homes of the rich and powerful every year, there would have been effective prevention measures in place by now.

Oh, but the prevention measures are in place. Flooding the poor is the measure.

[OZEMADE]

Typical "baffle 'em with bullshit" attempt for extra buget funds.

How pray tell is a radar system going to provide a weather forcast???

A radar sysytem tells you what is actually happening - now, and may indicate what might happen in the next 1 - 24 hours, not next week.

Fail to see how the lack of radar facilities can be blamed for not accuartely predicting the floods in time to actually do something about it.

so it's not really a radar, it's a crystal ball?

Here is a crystal ball you can check out. Up to the minute Thai weather report, Rain Radar, Sat Images etc.

http://www.tmd.go.th....php?RegionID=4

I do not consider a minimum of 1 hour refresh rates on radar "up to the minute". Do You?

I was under the impression it was direct. However a small oversight. Never the less the country will not flood in an hour as you say thats the time the radar works on.

[BuckarooBanzai]

I was under the impression it was direct. However a small oversight. Never the less the country will not flood in an hour as you say thats the time the radar works on.

Radar is about severe weather and rain, not about floods. It is best to track severe weather and excessive rain in real time so one can take proactive measures based on the weather patterns for a particular locality. Floods are a secondary consideration and in a local environment they can happen quickly with potentially deadly results. One hour updates are a clear indication of the meteorology departments lack of public commitment and incompetency as is their request for updated equipment to prevent floods in the future.

[toybits]

Don't put words into my mouth. The dam administrations should have let water out long before the situation became critical. I am talking about a few months before the dams could no longer contain more water. Dam administrators are worried about releasing water because they are not sure if the weather will cooperate and replace what was released. We have a La Nina year and so they should have predicted that there will be lots of rain this year. The infrastructure is not the problem. It is the people that manage the infrastructure that made a bad situation worse.

Tis best to pass the blame to the weathermen than to those DAM administrators. No pun intended. This what happens when people who control the dam gates are too afraid to act preemptively to avert disasters such as this. Blamig the weather bureau is the least painful option and may even land them a hefty windfall (ha ha) such as more modern radar equipment. If I may be so bold to say - you don't need those equipment to know when to let some water out of the dam. But then common sense is not common.

So, you advocate letting water out as needed based on the current level of the dam_n? Well, then you should be happy to know that is what they did. Without proper radar and forecasting you are simply left with reacting and not strategically planning. The dam_n situation is just one of many issues that could have been handled better but the bottom line is this was a very bad monsoon season and that is what caused the flooding ... which would be much worse if the infrastructure was not in place. Thailand is just one of a number of countries having severe flooding problems from this season's monsoon.

[peterdk]

So a radar, that worked perfectly well in 2008, and then obsolete in 2009 is to be replaced.

Now the radars that look skywards, may have been updated over the years.

However they will still show the same thing, just with more detail I suspect.

Oh a tropical depression in this area, too bad we cant see if it will rain more 30 kilometers east or west of the center.

Oh wait we could tell if we heavily invested in the latest bling up-to-date radar.

And how is that going to help anyone ?

Basically he is saying, that pre 2009 all weather predictions was bogus and just guess work, as his 2008 working radar is obsolete ???

As said - what would help, is working with satellite imagery - can any of you guys actually remember a weather forecast on any western news source not showing satellite imagery ?

And maybe having a hot-line to surrounding countries too.