Thai PM Says Floods Costs To Top US$3.3Bn

[webfact]

Thai PM says floods costs to top $3.3bn

by Thanaporn Promyamyai

BANGKOK, October 18, 2011 (AFP) - The Thai premier on Monday said reconstruction from massive floods swamping vast swathes of the country is expected to cost the government over $3.3 billion -- a fifth more than previously estimated.

Fears for the capital Bangkok appeared to have eased as authorities battled to contain Thailand's worst flooding in decades, which has claimed over 300 lives, swallowed homes and shut down industry.

But Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra warned: "The original budget to support the recovery of both the industrial and agricultural sectors is not likely to be enough."

Speaking at the disaster response headquarters at Don Muang Airport in northern Bangkok, she said the budget, which does not include water management costs, was now expected to exceed 100 billion baht ($3.3 billion).

The previous budget was $2.6 billion.

Three months of heavy rains have deluged about one third of Thailand's provinces, with floods -- several metres deep in places -- forcing tens of thousands of people to seek refuge in shelters.

The flooding has waterlogged major roads and hundreds of factories, disrupting production of cars, electronics and other goods in the kingdom, with another major industrial estate succumbing to the floods on Monday.

Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala said the floods across the country were likely to cut economic growth this year by up to 1.7 percent, according to estimates from the Bank of Thailand and the National Economic and Social Development Board.

The previous estimate was 0.9 percent.

Forecasters at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce have estimated the cost of the floods to the Thai economy at about 150 billion baht ($4.9 billion) -- roughly 1.3-1.5 percent of annual gross domestic product.

Thailand on Monday gave the go ahead to a hefty minimum wage hike, Labour Minister Phadermchai Sasomsab told AFP, although it postponed the measure until April 2012 in response to pleas from the flood-hit industrial sector.

Yingluck apologised for authorities' inability to protect Navanakorn industrial estate after water overwhelmed defences at the site, which houses over 200 factories for local and foreign firms and employs nearly 200,000.

Hundreds of locals helped soldiers trying to protect the estate -- Thailand's oldest -- with sandbags but were told to evacuate as water began pouring into the area in Pathum Thani province, located near Bangkok.

One factory worker told AFP that the area was flooded "in just a few minutes".

"I thought this estate could hold out against the water so I helped in another place... then I heard about evacuation here so I ran back to pick my motorcycle," another worker, Sopha Srisan, said.

Flood Relief Operation Command (FROC) said there was up to 2 metres of water in some areas of Navanakorn but expressed continued confidence that the capital would be spared.

A spokesman said the Thai premier had ordered a third protection dyke, to be built Monday night, in the northern outskirts of the capital "to assure Bangkokians".

Authorities have so far prevented major flooding inside the capital by diverting water through a complex system of rivers and canals around the city.

Conditions in Bangkok remained mostly normal and Suvarnabhumi Airport -- the capital's main air hub, which has flood walls several metres high -- was operating as usual.

The Thai Air Force said it was moving 20 of it's 30 planes out of Don Muang Airport as a precaution.

Yingluck has asked the military to take charge of the emergency response in five provinces, including the low-lying historic city of Ayutthaya, which has been under water for over a week.

Thai authorities said water levels were receding in Ayutthaya, which lies about 80 kilometres (50 miles) upriver from Bangkok and has seen its ancient World Heritage temples and all five of its industrial estates swamped.

Some automakers, including Toyota, have halted production in the kingdom due to water damage to facilities or a shortage of components.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2011-10-18

[webfact]

Cost of cleanup could exceed Bt100 bn

BUSINESS DESK

THE NATION

Thailand's flood-rehabilitation bill could exceed Bt100 billion as flood waters continue to claim victims and disrupt the supply chain, with Japanese carmakers alone facing losses of up to US$500 million (Bt15.3 billion) as the disruptions threaten to force them to suspend operations for a month.

Manufacturers yesterday rushed to address fears of a consumer-goods shortage, while the Bank of Thailand (BOT) offered assurances that all Thai banks had sufficient strength to handle a rise in the number of business loans turning sour.

According to the Labour Ministry, 10,827 factories in 17 provinces are flooded, affecting 446,777 workers. The focus is now on the nation's first industrial estate, Nava Nakorn Industrial Estate, which houses 227 factories and employs over 170,000 workers.

Voravidh Champeeratana, deputy director of the Budget Bureau, said yesterday that the reconstruction budget will be increased to Bt130 billion from an earlier estimate of Bt80 billion, and that the Cabinet will today consider widening the 2012 budget deficit by Bt50 billion to Bt400 billion. Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala yesterday mentioned the likelihood of widening the deficit to Bt500 billion to finance road, dam and infrastructure construction, which could boost domestic purchasing power. A source at the Finance Ministry insisted that such a widened deficit did not represent a slackening of fiscal discipline, as the disaster had prompted a huge need for rehabilitation.

Bloomberg quoted Kohei Takahashi, an analyst in Tokyo at JPMorgan Chase and Co, as saying that Japanese carmakers would suffer dearly from the worst floods in a half a century, chiefly Toyota, Honda and Nissan, which could lose $500 million if production is suspended for a month.

The agricultural and industrial sectors are the most badly affected. While 8.41 million rai of rice fields are flooded, cutting estimated annual output by 3 million tonnes at least, the precise extent of the damage to the industrial sector was impossible to ascertain.

Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani are major locations of electronics and auto parts factories. Krungsri Research expects the electronics supply chain disruption to continue until the second quarter in 2012. Though most other plants nationwide have avoided inundation, many are cut off from component suppliers and workers by flooded roads.

Yesterday, the Committee on the Business and Industrial Rehabilitation in the Aftermath of the Flooding, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong, put the initial damage at between Bt100 billion and Bt170 billion, which would cut this year's economic growth by 1-1.7 percentage points. After the meeting, Thirachai said the committee had considered three urgent measures including efforts to protect unaffected industrial estates from floods and to help companies cope with the losses.

Commercial and state-owned banks' assistance will be sought while regulatory amendments to facilitate borrowing are considered.

Just as the Cabinet is today expected to approve canned food and essential goods imports, Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) Chairman Payungsak Chartsuthipol assured Thais that the consumer-goods supply would remain unaffected, thanks to stockpiles which could last as long as two months. He attributed empty shelves mainly to panic-buying, while logistics disruption contributed 30 per cent.

"The impact is greater than the tsunami [that struck Japan in March]. The FTI is evaluating damage and will propose measures to help workers and businesses," he said.

Meanwhile, BOT Governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul noted that industries located in Rojana Industrial park, Saha Rattana Nakorn Industrial Estate, HiTech Industrial Estate, Bang Pain Industrial Estate and Nava Nakorn Industrial Estate owe a combined Bt60 billion, or 0.75 per cent of total outstanding loans. Of those estates' total debt, 56 per cent was held by Thai banks and the rest by foreign banks. If any loans turned sour, Thai banks could cope with it, he said.

-- The Nation 2011-10-18

[jonclark]

This government are a bunch of useless c**ts so lacking in co-ordination that they couldn't even find their own backside with a map. Who within the government will show responsibility for this. No-one they will point fingers, blame someone else and then have the audacity to ask for sympathy (or burst into tears!!). If I had done my job as badly as this government I would have been sacked.

[newermonkey]

Perhaps the honorable PM could ask for some of the kingdoms money back from her generous dad to cover some of the costs? :jap:

[philw]

Perhaps the honorable PM could ask for some of the kingdoms money back from her generous dad to cover some of the costs? :jap:

Nearly right..............

[renaissanc]

If the government had not make so many silly and expensive populist promises in order to get elected, maybe Thailand would have enough money to pay for the clean-up and damage to industry. Now it has to borrow money from abroad. For whose sake were those promises made?

[brianb1944]

When I see headline "PM" I always wander if they mean the one on shore, or the one offshore. Estimate rose from 2.6bn to 3.3 bn? they must have forgotten to factor in tea money in the original.

[Arkady]

Cost of cleanup could exceed Bt100 bn

BUSINESS DESK

THE NATION

-- The Nation 2011-10-18

Looks like the road connecting to a bridge in the picture was just tarmac sprayed on to dirt without any foundations. Have seen them making roads like that in Burma. No doubt the budget was for a proper road.

Edited October 18, 2011 by Arkady

[thaicbr]

Cost of cleanup could exceed Bt100 bn

BUSINESS DESK

THE NATION

-- The Nation 2011-10-18

Looks like the road connecting to a bridge in the picture was just tarmac sprayed on to dirt without any foundations. Have seen them making roads like that in Burma. No doubt the budget was for a proper road.

That IS a proper road here... I was going along the national highway 1 towards Chiang Mai a few weeks ago and they were laying tarmac onto gravel with no border retainers etc..I thought then one good rain and that will be washed away...dunno if it has.. but i expect so..

[Buchholz]

Thai PM says floods costs to top $3.3 billion

Commerce Minister Passagorn Pousiri said he was unwilling to estimate the exact cost, but economists put the figure as high as $7 billion.

VOA News - 39 minutes ago

http://www.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Thai-Soldiers-Rush-to-Reinforce-Bangkok-Flood-Walls-132036703.html

[landofthefree]

This government are a bunch of useless c**ts so lacking in co-ordination that they couldn't even find their own backside with a map. Who within the government will show responsibility for this. No-one they will point fingers, blame someone else and then have the audacity to ask for sympathy (or burst into tears!!). If I had done my job as badly as this government I would have been sacked.

Time to bring back Thaksin then?

[serenitynow]

This government are a bunch of useless c**ts so lacking in co-ordination that they couldn't even find their own backside with a map. Who within the government will show responsibility for this. No-one they will point fingers, blame someone else and then have the audacity to ask for sympathy (or burst into tears!!). If I had done my job as badly as this government I would have been sacked.

Time to bring back Thaksin then?

Don't live your life on your knees man! Have some dignity.

[landofthefree]

This government are a bunch of useless c**ts so lacking in co-ordination that they couldn't even find their own backside with a map. Who within the government will show responsibility for this. No-one they will point fingers, blame someone else and then have the audacity to ask for sympathy (or burst into tears!!). If I had done my job as badly as this government I would have been sacked.

Time to bring back Thaksin then?

Don't live your life on your knees man! Have some dignity.

Its just I have lived in Thailand through Thaksins and Abhisits runs as PM and frankly it was better under Thaksin When Abhisit was in control we had rioting arson and curfews when Thaksin was in charge I didn't experience any of that. You might not like it but that is fact.

[whybother]

Its just I have lived in Thailand through Thaksins and Abhisits runs as PM and frankly it was better under Thaksin When Abhisit was in control we had rioting arson and curfews when Thaksin was in charge I didn't experience any of that. You might not like it but that is fact.

When Thaksin was in charge we had a failed election and then a coup. When his first puppet government was "in charge" government house was blockaded for 3 months and the airport shut down for a week.

Some control !!

[serenitynow]

Its just I have lived in Thailand through Thaksins and Abhisits runs as PM and frankly it was better under Thaksin When Abhisit was in control we had rioting arson and curfews when Thaksin was in charge I didn't experience any of that. You might not like it but that is fact.

When Thaksin was in charge we had a failed election and then a coup. When his first puppet government was "in charge" government house was blockaded for 3 months and the airport shut down for a week.

Some control !!

I finally moved here about the same time Thaksin came to power. I am aware of most of Thailand's history in the 20th century. There were many many conflicts and often times the "good guys" lost, but Thailand always found a way to come back together, mainly attributible to the love and loyalty the Thai people felt for HRH. That said, has anyone else other than Thaksin ever brought such disunity that the people despaired whether their contry could hold together? He is clearly playing a regional game. Do you think the Thai people are even aware of that?

[jombom]

Numbers, numbers, numbers.

It appears the annual budget has a Government revenue component of about 60 billion USD. Yingluch etc wish to reduce by 10%, to cover rebuilding etc.

Estimates of damage vary, between 3.5 and 7 billion USD.

Not being an economist, I have difficulty dealing with these quasi-facts.

However, a major cutback in Government expenditure, carries risks of a self-induced recession ---- from my simple analysis. Why should it be paid for in 1 year?

Precedents please ??

Again, my simplistic analysis, suggests that cutbacks should be matched by infrastructure spend, preferably on flood defenses, or water management investments.

An economist's view would be welcome.

[GentlemanJim]

I think this will cost much more than what the PM is estimating. Much much more!

[rubl]

Its just I have lived in Thailand through Thaksins and Abhisits runs as PM and frankly it was better under Thaksin When Abhisit was in control we had rioting arson and curfews when Thaksin was in charge I didn't experience any of that. You might not like it but that is fact.

You're right, I don't like that, neither I think then PM Abhisit or his government. K. Thaksin didn't have to 'fight' against riots/arson/terrorism in Bangkok. It were his supporters, or UDD leaders with mis-led fools, who caused that 'problem'. 'Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts' and lots of UDD leaders involved and implicated suddenly Pheu Thai party list candidates and Pheu Thai MPs. All k. Abhisit's fault obviously and of course. You might not like it, but it's a fact

[garrysch]

The current crisis was a failed attempt to make the new PM look bad. There was some flooding last year when water was allowed to accumulate behind the dams, then released a little too late. It flooded the Isan region. So, some Democrat figured they could do it again. This time, tho, the water built up to 63%, or twice the normal height going into the monsoon season. Yes, Isan was flooded, but so now are those who planned this. This was not an act of nature, this was a plan to ruin Isan which backfired.....

[whybother]

The current crisis was a failed attempt to make the new PM look bad. There was some flooding last year when water was allowed to accumulate behind the dams, then released a little too late. It flooded the Isan region. So, some Democrat figured they could do it again. This time, tho, the water built up to 63%, or twice the normal height going into the monsoon season. Yes, Isan was flooded, but so now are those who planned this. This was not an act of nature, this was a plan to ruin Isan which backfired.....

Tin foil hat time.

[Buchholz]

The current crisis was a failed attempt to make the new PM look bad. There was some flooding last year when water was allowed to accumulate behind the dams, then released a little too late. It flooded the Isan region. So, some Democrat figured they could do it again. This time, tho, the water built up to 63%, or twice the normal height going into the monsoon season. Yes, Isan was flooded, but so now are those who planned this. This was not an act of nature, this was a plan to ruin Isan which backfired.....

The amataya control the weather

oh, and

Edited October 18, 2011 by Buchholz

[AleG]

Numbers, numbers, numbers.

It appears the annual budget has a Government revenue component of about 60 billion USD. Yingluch etc wish to reduce by 10%, to cover rebuilding etc.

Estimates of damage vary, between 3.5 and 7 billion USD.

Not being an economist, I have difficulty dealing with these quasi-facts.

However, a major cutback in Government expenditure, carries risks of a self-induced recession ---- from my simple analysis. Why should it be paid for in 1 year?

Precedents please ??

Again, my simplistic analysis, suggests that cutbacks should be matched by infrastructure spend, preferably on flood defenses, or water management investments.

An economist's view would be welcome.

Don't forget to factor the reduction in corporate taxes from 30% to 23% (or 20%). Plus the mountain of money for the rice pledging scheme, plus large salary increases across all public service, plus tax exemptions for car and home buyers, a proposed reduction of VAT from 7 to 3%, etc, etc...

I think after the water recedes the country may sink again as the finances collapse.

Edited October 20, 2011 by AleG

[rixalex]

Its just I have lived in Thailand through Thaksins and Abhisits runs as PM and frankly it was better under Thaksin When Abhisit was in control we had rioting arson and curfews when Thaksin was in charge I didn't experience any of that. You might not like it but that is fact.

You didn't experience any of that whilst Thaksin was in charge because obviously he wouldn't lead and fund a violent movement against himself now would he.