JimsKnight Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The glory days of the high 60s and 70s are long gone now. We're lucky to see it in the high 40s the way things are going. The question is, will it go any lower? The pathetic low interest rates in the UK, the printing presses running at break-neck speed and the general consensus of having weak £ all looks set to strike a death blow. How are the struggling pensioners and plucky Brits keeping their head above water?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Baht vs Pound- I can't see it going much lower. Anything to do with Thailand, including its currency, is unpredictable IMHO. Abandon all logic here! Short term 45- 50. Medium term 50-60. Long term death for one and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boater Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 if you could predict the trend, you would be a billionaire ! , thing is no one really knowes ..... i think it will stay roughly where it is, unless there is a repeat of the 1997 collaspe in thailand .... but, as we all know , Asia is the super power, and we are just the pawns now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokie36 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Hehe....Asia is a shambles...far more so than the west...expect an upturn in a year or two but overall things will depend upon fuel sources.....long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PattayaPhom Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Talk of interest rate rises already as CPI has passed the 5% mark.....Mervyn Kings policies are not working as raging inflation grips the UK..Severe increases to the like of the early nineties are on the horizon...just remember, rates tumbled from 5.5%-0.5% within a few months..the opposite and worse can also happen...nest year the UK hosts the Olympics, this in itselfe will strength Sterling albeit only slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMA_FARANG Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 (edited) Imposible to say for certain. However, I predict that, in the short term anyhow, the current floods and the economic problems it will cause will hurt the Baht...and therefore the Baht-Sterling, Baht-Dollar, and Baht-Euro rates will favor the foriegn currency...meaning a better exchange rate for those currencys, at least for a short period. That's not hard to predict. In the long term, however, no one can really say. It depends on events outside of Thailand and beyond control. P.S. Don't get to worried about it anyhow. I can remember, at least 30 years ago...maybe more... when the Dolllar/Pound rate was $1.10 to buy one Pound. The point is...nothing lasts forever...impermanence is the only certainty. Edited October 20, 2011 by IMA_FARANG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el jefe Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Imposible to say for certain. However, I predict that, in the short term anyhow, the current floods and the economic problems it will cause will hurt the Baht...and therefore the Baht-Sterling, Baht-Dollar, and Baht-Euro rates will favor the foriegn currency...meaning a better exchange rate for those currencys, at least for a short period. That's not hard to predict. And that has not already been priced into the market yet? I'm surprised none of the big trading houses have thought of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 There's the short and short/medium term view and then there's trend, the latter is what we need to be concerned about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nbm47 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The pound will stay within present parameters, while Thailand struggles to overcome its major problems with the massive flooding of the country. The cost of all this flooding will wipe out Thailand's GDP for this fiscal year and they are already having to borrow more money from their banks to pay for the shortfall. By the the time they have cleaned up the country from this disaster and the cost of it all will probably reduce their forecast of 3-4% GDP for next year to zero and then there all the interest payments on money owed on the trillions of baht borrowed. Their central foreign reserves are high but they can't afford to use that in case of economic collapse which could happen next year everywhere. All in all the baht will depreciate to something like 55 to the pound by the middle of next year and possibly more if this present government doesn't get its finger out and manage the country properly instead of trying to make a quick buck for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakseedaa Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Interest rates are not that low .. I have a wonderful investment in London, that guarantees my investment cash, guarantees me a minimum... Yes minimum of 12% per annum, paid in regular intervals, and my cash is only tied up for 2 years... Go on the British.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebebe Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The GBP certainly isn't done for, but the previous Thai government actually left the country in quite good shape with high foreign exchange reserves (12th in world) and low debt-GDP ratio, the latter of which is in stark contrast to the UK. A really fascinating Goldman Sachs study called something like 'The Expanding Middle' (Google may throw it up) looked at what the world's largest economies might be in 2050. Looking at countries by GDP, the bank predicted that the UK would move from 6th place in 2007 to 8th in 2050, no surprise, but that Thailand would move up to 23rd over the same time. Of course Thailand has much to do to achieve it's 2050 potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
houseinbkk Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Talk of interest rate rises already as CPI has passed the 5% mark.....Mervyn Kings policies are not working as raging inflation grips the UK..Severe increases to the like of the early nineties are on the horizon...just remember, rates tumbled from 5.5%-0.5% within a few months..the opposite and worse can also happen...nest year the UK hosts the Olympics, this in itselfe will strength Sterling albeit only slightly Its not Mervyn King that is failing to reign in govt/public sector spending, thus its Daves mob that are borrowing like their political allies aka The Labour Party until this changes the pound wont rise. As for inflation, my take on it is theyll have had 4 years of inflation between 3 - 5.5% next year when Merv is hoping itll fall back closer to 2%, if it were to do so theyll be keeping interest rates at these rates for the next decade (As Japan has), as its the only way the banks will get the money theyve lent in the property boom back. Eventually when the British govt. have defaulted and can no longer borrow to buy votes they will realise the only way to create real jobs for the electorate is to stop outsourcing jobs to Asia and we start manufacturing what we buy, at this point the UK economy will grow and Sterling will rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PattayaParent Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimsKnight Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Back in 1994 40 baht got you a helluva lot more than for your 40 baht than you do now! Also back in the 90s there wasn't a recession / depression like there is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Back in 1994 40 baht got you a helluva lot more than for your 40 baht than you do now! Also back in the 90s there wasn't a recession / depression like there is now... The 40 baht to the pound scenario was a peg to the dollar at first, and then a policy to keep the Baht high and it ended in disaster, I wouldn't regard that as evidence at all. Nor would I regard 60 and 70 as a norm either. It stands to reason that the baht will appreciate vs the pound over time as the developed countries catch up the slower moving mature economies. By now I think we can safely assume that the credit crunch has been priced in to the equation, and the future looks equally as bleak all round, yes Thailand will grow perhaps but only at derisory levels for a developing country. That UK has many problems is well reported, but Thailand also has to now cope with a natural disaster, reduced world demand for its increasingly uncompetitive products, and growing debt too. If you dare cast your mind forward to a more stable future then 55 to the pound is a reasonable mark: I guess. quite when that stability arrives who knows!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Back in 1994 40 baht got you a helluva lot more than for your 40 baht than you do now! Also back in the 90s there wasn't a recession / depression like there is now... You're confusing the effects of inflation with currency strengthening, the two when combined make for much ex-pat pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Back in 1994 40 baht got you a helluva lot more than for your 40 baht than you do now! Also back in the 90s there wasn't a recession / depression like there is now... The 40 baht to the pound scenario was a peg to the dollar at first, and then a policy to keep the Baht high and it ended in disaster, I wouldn't regard that as evidence at all. Nor would I regard 60 and 70 as a norm either. It stands to reason that the baht will appreciate vs the pound over time as the developed countries catch up the slower moving mature economies. By now I think we can safely assume that the credit crunch has been priced in to the equation, and the future looks equally as bleak all round, yes Thailand will grow perhaps but only at derisory levels for a developing country. That UK has many problems is well reported, but Thailand also has to now cope with a natural disaster, reduced world demand for its increasingly uncompetitive products, and growing debt too. If you dare cast your mind forward to a more stable future then 55 to the pound is a reasonable mark: I guess. quite when that stability arrives who knows!? The peg you refer to was actually 35 but it wasn't the peg that led to disaster it was lack of monetary policy and infrastructure - today there's an independent central bank in place that functions quite well and a decent track record of managing policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PattayaPhom Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Interest rates are not that low .. I have a wonderful investment in London, that guarantees my investment cash, guarantees me a minimum... Yes minimum of 12% per annum, paid in regular intervals, and my cash is only tied up for 2 years... Go on the British.. Regulated by the FSA???..Government backed gaurantee???.I doubt it...be very careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kjhbigv Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 (edited) Interest rates are not that low .. I have a wonderful investment in London, that guarantees my investment cash, guarantees me a minimum... Yes minimum of 12% per annum, paid in regular intervals, and my cash is only tied up for 2 years... Go on the British.. Regulated by the FSA???..Government backed gaurantee???.I doubt it...be very careful. 12% Guaranteed! I'll have some of that please! Edited October 22, 2011 by kjhbigv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuestHouse Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 12% Guaranteed! I'll have some of that please! Who wouldn't, though the OP might have difficulty providing a link the the source of this income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kjhbigv Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 12% Guaranteed! I'll have some of that please! Who wouldn't, though the OP might have difficulty providing a link the the source of this income. dam_n, I was ready to sign up as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 no problem to achieve 12% (and more) by buying British Tier1 bank prefs denominated in GBP. but no such thing like "guarantee" applies. example: Bank of Scotland, code XS0125681345, T1 perp. bond, nominal coupon 7.286%, trades presently at 60.40 = yield 12.063% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardholder Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Interest rates are not that low .. I have a wonderful investment in London, that guarantees my investment cash, guarantees me a minimum... Yes minimum of 12% per annum, paid in regular intervals, and my cash is only tied up for 2 years... Go on the British.. Regulated by the FSA???..Government backed gaurantee???.I doubt it...be very careful. 12% Guaranteed! I'll have some of that please! Cash ? Tied up for 2 years ? I would suggest that changes the asset class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RAZZELL Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Could we see 50 to the £ this week? RAZZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PattayaParent Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Back in 1994 40 baht got you a helluva lot more than for your 40 baht than you do now! Also back in the 90s there wasn't a recession / depression like there is now... But I also get paid 4X as much now as I did then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
letitbe Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 answer is yes next question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
endure Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Ditto. On my first visit to Thailand I was getting 37bt to the £. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaBlue05 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Back around 2006, I could have sold my house in the US for about &100K more than it would sell for now. On the other hand, it is now worth pretty much what I hoped it would be worth at this point when I bought it 13 years ago. Go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And the answer is yes, it will go lower, expect to see THB 40 per Pound within six months, THB will revert to long term norms at some point not too far away. when I came to Thailand in 1994 it was 40 Baht to the pound. Every year since then has been a bonus. Ditto. On my first visit to Thailand I was getting 37bt to the £. on my first visit to Thailand i got 20 Baht for one dollar. on my second visit to Thailand i got 20 Baht for one dollar. on my third visit to Thailand i got 20 Baht for one dollar. on my fourth till thirteenth visit to Thailand i got 20 Baht for one dollar. on my fifteenth till twenty-fifth visit to Thailand i got 25 Baht for one dollar. in january 1998 i got 55 Baht for one dollar. in 2005 i built a house and bought cars getting 42 Baht for one dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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