Tropical Storm Rina forms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea

[News_Editor]

Tropical Storm Rina forms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea

2011-10-24 17:40:20 GMT+7 (ICT)

MIAMI (BNO NEWS) -- Tropical Storm Rina formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on late Sunday evening, forecasters said, prompting a tropical storm watch for the coast of Honduras. Some strengthening is expected.

Forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been following the weather system since Thursday morning when a broad area of low pressure was centered between the eastern tip of Honduras and Jamaica. It slowly became better organized throughout the weekend.

As of 5 a.m. EDT (0900 GMT) on Monday, the center of Rina was located about 130 miles (210 kilometers) north-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, which is a cape located on the Nicaragua-Honduras border. It is moving toward the north-northwest at about 6 miles (9 kilometers) per hour.

Maximum sustained winds of Rina are near 40 miles (65 kilometers) per hour, with higher gusts, according to forecasters. "Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 kilometers), mainly to the north and west of the center," said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch.

Pasch said Rina is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (2.5 to 7.6 centimeters) along the northeastern coast of Honduras, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches (12.7 centimeters). "These rains could cause flash flooding and mud slides over mountainous terrain," Pasch warned. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (2.5 to 7.6 centimeters) are possible over the Cayman Islands.

Although Rina remains some 130 miles (210 kilometers) from the Honduran coast, a tropical storm watch has been issued from Punta Castilla eastward to the Nicaraguan border. There is a small possibility Rina could move closer to Honduras, but this is not expected.

Instead, Rina is forecast to continue moving to the north-northwest until it makes a northward turn on Thursday just before it reaches Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula. Landfall could occur just south of the Mexican city of Cancun on the Yucatán Peninsula.

Although the official NHC forecast is predicting Rina to become a hurricane before it reaches the Yucatán Peninsula, Pasch said this is unlikely. "[Weather] models are predicting Rina to become a strong hurricane that would respond to [a] deep-layer southwesterly flow over the eastern Gulf. Given the predicted atmospheric environment, such a scenario seems unlikely at this time."

Forecasts later in the week will determine whether Belize, the Yucatán Peninsula or any areas are at risk.

Rina is the seventeenth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, following category one Hurricane Philippe which formed in the far eastern Atlantic in late September and dissipated earlier this month without affecting any land.

According to figures released last month, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is expecting an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. The outlook calls for 14 to 19 named storms, with seven to ten becoming hurricanes and three to five expected to become a major hurricane (category 3 or higher).

An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two becoming major hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with peak activity in September.

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