Bangkok Flood Update

[rak sa_ngop]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

No but his predictions gel with about my best guess, simply following data, sat photos, amount of water north, etc..

And you are no expert but have found someone that is no expert to back up your assumptions?

I have just done the figures and the volume of water quoted 300 million cu ft works out to represent the equivalent of flooding an area 3.3km x 3.3 km to a depth of 1 metre.

Not quite the whole of Bangkok. Of course my calculation could be wrong.

[Mrjlh]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

No but his predictions gel with about my best guess, simply following data, sat photos, amount of water north, etc..

And you are no expert but have found someone that is no expert to back up your assumptions?

I have just done the figures and the volume of water quoted 300 million cu ft works out to represent the equivalent of flooding an area 3.3km x 3.3 km to a depth of 1 metre.

Not quite the whole of Bangkok. Of course my calculation could be wrong.

Your assumption is based on a the number of only 300 million Cu Ft. The real number is much, much higher than that and is constantly being feed by the upstream rivers at a tremendous rate. People keep forgetting, rivers don't stop flowing. I think its just some water they'll go away overnight. Not happening is it? Only recently has the dams in the north reduced the outflow volumes dramatically. It takes several weeks for that water to reach Bangkok. You also need to consider how much volume can go thru the whole system in a day or hour and that is what Dr Siri is explains.

[jpinx]

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<br />So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.<br />

<br /><br /><br />No but his predictions gel with about my best guess, simply following data, sat photos, amount of water north, etc..<br />

<br />And you are no expert but have found someone that is no expert to back up your assumptions?<br />

<br />I have just done the figures and the volume of water quoted 300 million cu ft works out to represent the equivalent of flooding an area 3.3km x 3.3 km to a depth of 1 metre.<br /><br />Not quite the whole of Bangkok. Of course my calculation could be wrong.<br />

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I get 8495053.9776 cubic metres which would be 2914.627588149128 metres square by 1 metre deep - or double if 50cms deep which is possibly more realistic. A 6km x 6km area is covering a lot of Bkk if the water is all let in at once, but they are tryong to avoid that (big bags, etc) so the reality will be somewhat less and will also depend on drainage rates.

All this pre-supposes that the guy who came up with 300 million cubic feet of water actually knows what he's talking about....

refs:- http://www.onlineconversion.com/volume.htm

http://www.marshu.com/articles/calculate-find-square-root-online-calculator.php

[californiabeachboy]

Unless you know how accurate this author has been in the past in predicting the outcomes of floods, this article is worthless. The "disaster" predictions are a great marketing tool, because every once in a while they become true.

I predict there will be another disaster/recession/flood/whatever. I will be back on here when it becomes true.

[SiamRose]

Ah, I love reading all the remarks from nay-sayers that have no more information than the man in the moon. Especially those who say nothing is going to happen because the local markets still have goods for sale.

I'm not a nay-sayer. But this man Catterwell said that supermarkets have empty shelves now, and from what i've seen in the last few days that's not true. Just hope he's wrong about next week as well.

[Orac]

I have just done the figures and the volume of water quoted 300 million cu ft works out to represent the equivalent of flooding an area 3.3km x 3.3 km to a depth of 1 metre.

Not quite the whole of Bangkok. Of course my calculation could be wrong.

Your assumption is based on a the number of only 300 million Cu Ft. The real number is much, much higher than that and is constantly being feed by the upstream rivers at a tremendous rate. People keep forgetting, rivers don't stop flowing. I think its just some water they'll go away overnight. Not happening is it? Only recently has the dams in the north reduced the outflow volumes dramatically. It takes several weeks for that water to reach Bangkok. You also need to consider how much volume can go thru the whole system in a day or hour and that is what Dr Siri is explains.

From another thread today -

The volume of water entering Bangkok is much greater than the amount being pushed out, according to Bangkok Governor MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

"The difference is about 100 million cubic metres a day," Sukhumbhand disclosed yesterday.

that is the equivalent of approx 3,500 million cubic feet A DAY of extra water.

[LivinLOS]

if it was a 100 million cubic meters per day..

Does that not mean a 10km by 10km square 1 meter deep ?? Every day ??

10,000 x 10,000 = 100,000,000

[jimbeam1]

w11guy might be a little extreme but he's right that any flooding to the Silom area will be minimal. It's higher up than surrounding areas.

Water won't be high and won't stay for long. The major long-term floods will be to the east down to parts Samut Prakan and in Thonburi.through to Samut Sakhon.

Must say I agree with him on the Villa Market as well. Went to the one at Silom 2weeks ago only things missing from the shelves, cheap water and Lactasoy, also went to Villa Market Sukhumvit yesterday, was the same just cheap water and Lactasoy and most long life drinks missing.

jb1

[sparebox2]

w11guy might be a little extreme but he's right that any flooding to the Silom area will be minimal. It's higher up than surrounding areas.

Water won't be high and won't stay for long. The major long-term floods will be to the east down to parts Samut Prakan and in Thonburi.through to Samut Sakhon.

Must say I agree with him on the Villa Market as well. Went to the one at Silom 2weeks ago only things missing from the shelves, cheap water and Lactasoy, also went to Villa Market Sukhumvit yesterday, was the same just cheap water and Lactasoy and most long life drinks missing.

jb1

But there are plenty of "expensive mineral water" available from France & Italy. It teste batter too.

I have a lady hi-so friend who use these stuff, not only to sprey her face, but also use to bath on. She said those Farang minerals are refreshing for her tender white skin, hence farang are so fair and white. See my eyes rolling up?

[hyperdimension]

Oh, a banker, eh? Well, that doesn't add much credibility these days, unfortunately.

I think I will stick to listening to Dr. Seri (or Seree)

This news article should have only been a letter or, at most, an Op Ed, not a full-blown "special" news article.

Notice that no background biographical information, such as professional qualifications, about the author has been divulged in the content of the article, when in most other cases it is (often either at the beginning or a short biographical summary at the end of an article). This attempt to hide such biographical information is probably in order to avoid criticism and dismissal of the article and author, as in this discussion thread - that he is not at all an expert in a field that he is writing and professing about. The area in which he is an expert (economics and banking) is not at all covered in the article that he has written.

Can you imagine an article on banking and economics written by a flood expert and published in the newspapers for the entire nation to read?

Edited November 10, 2011 by hyperdimension

[hyperdimension]

No doubt there have been blunders but there is and always will be with these types of crisis' regardless of where they happen.

The more unqualified, inexperienced and incompetent the people in charge are, the more blunders and silly decisions there are likely to be. Has there been any talk or criticism lately in the media regarding that 1000 boats in the river experiment?

They didn't even set up FROC until the floods were already seriously affecting parts north of Bangkok.

And when they did set up the FROC headquarters they set it up in the direct path of the flood (twice!). Similarly with the evacuation centers - how many centers have had to re-evacuate so far? Some people have had to evacuate 3 or 4 times.

Edited November 10, 2011 by hyperdimension

[outofoz]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.

Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.

and yet u seem well versed on Graham's bio

When you have something constructive, please come back.

errrrr....likewise

[jayboy]

This news article should have only been a letter or, at most, an Op Ed, not a full-blown "special" news article.

Notice that no background biographical information, such as professional qualifications, about the author has been divulged in the content of the article, when in most other cases it is (often either at the beginning or a short biographical summary at the end of an article). This attempt to hide such biographical information is probably in order to avoid criticism and dismissal of the article and author, as in this discussion thread - that he is not at all an expert in a field that he is writing and professing about. The area in which he is an expert (economics and banking) is not at all covered in the article that he has written.

Can you imagine an article on banking and economics written by a flood expert and published in the newspapers for the entire nation to read?

Another example of the chippiness and sniping mean spiritedness of a minority of members.Your suggestion that Catterwell is hiding biographical information is laughable given most well connected Thais know exactly who he is.

You completely miss the point anyway.Catterwell doesn't claim to be an expert.In fact he doesn't claim to be anything.He has simply drawn together the information available (and he has the local knowledge and intellect to do this) and drawn some conclusions in a credible way.I and others have found his analysis very valuable and I have not seen as good a summary elsewhere.Dr Seri is excellent but he provides something a little different, namely credible updates.

[jampola]

Not sure if I am posting in the right place but where can I find what roads are open and closed? More specifically I am travelling to Nakhonsawan tomorrow from Chonburi, is the Bang Pa-in tollway open all the way from Bangkok-Chonburi motorway to Ayuthaya/Wangnoi yet or do I need to go via Don Muang still?

[hanuman1]

Why do so many disgruntled posters think the person who wrote the OP is supposed to be a flood expert? Because he criticizes 'experts' in passing? Join the club!

Just because someone's opinion on flooding is published in the Nation doesn't mean they're a flood expert.

Similarly, just because the Nation publishes articles, it doesn't mean it has expertise in journalism.

[ResX]

Unless you know how accurate this author has been in the past in predicting the outcomes of floods, this article is worthless. The "disaster" predictions are a great marketing tool, because every once in a while they become true.

I predict there will be another disaster/recession/flood/whatever. I will be back on here when it becomes true.

In flood control statement of fact, there is 100% chance that the biggest flood in 50 years will strike at least once over the next 50 years. There is no element of speculation here about the existing of such event. The only speculation part is how intense it is going to be. We know for sure the biggest flood in 50 years must be greater than or equal to the biggest flood in 49 years! So if you have 49 years flood data you should know the minimum intensity of the biggest flood in 50 years that you are waiting for. Only one assumption is made, e.g. the Chao Phraya will exist at least for the next 50 years. This statement of fact can be mathematically & scientifically proven. The mathematical postulate (probably initiated by me ) to support the existing of the biggest flood in 50 years for any flood plain is called "The law of a set of real numbers". It sounds like this: Given a set of real numbers. If all the numbers in the set are not all equal then there must be at least one number that represents the global maximum for the given set".

To make thing worse, there is a 100% chance that the biggest flood in 5,000 years will strike any year within a period of 5,000 years from now. But we hope the odd works with us since only 1% chance it may strike over the next 50 years. Let future generations worry about it. We have to worry about the biggest flood in 50year since 50% chance it may strike less than 26 years from now. Quite strange mathematics related to flood control, right? That is why many nations could not get right when it comes to dealing with floods. This is especially true for the nations that rely on politicians to dominate the decision making. Sadly to say but it is true.

If my memory serves me right Sirkit dam was designed to deal with the biggest flood in 25 years.

Edited November 10, 2011 by ResX

[Mrjlh]

The numbers, first I made a mistake by writing it was in Cu/Ft. it should be in Cubic Meters, big difference. That number came from Dr. Siri on a news interview. It is very close to the numbers quoted in another news source which I can't link to by forum rules. I'd like to give credit to the source but not sure of the rules. But here are numbers from that report. (I'm paraphrasing):

Northern runoff has been estimated at 14 billion cubic metres.

Nearly half has flowed into the sea. leaving 8.5 billion cu/m in the Central Plains, said a spokesman.

Of the 8.5 billion cu/m of water, about 3 billion cu/m is in the Chao Phraya River and 3.5 billion cu/m in the fields in the central provinces and north of Bangkok.

This would leave only about 5 billion cu/m of water for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration to manage.

With about 400 million cu/m of water being drained into the sea every day, the floodwater could be drained out of the capital in 11 days.

Now where they get the last statement of 400 million cu/m is unknown to me. This is assuming the water is pumped out via the rivers which already are at capacity. So how is this 5 billion getting out? When 8 billion still has to be removed. They are playing with numbers. Take away 8 leaving 6 makes it sound easy to do. you still have 14 billion that you've got to get out and that doesn't include the water that continues to flow down stream from the north. Creative mathematics!! 14-8.5 = 3 + 3.5?? Where did 5 come from or was it 5.5? Maybe translation error going from Thai math symbols to Arabic?

Edited November 10, 2011 by Mrjlh

[hyperdimension]

Your suggestion that Catterwell is hiding biographical information is laughable given most well connected Thais know exactly who he is.

So do you think no biographical information was presented because people already know who he is? I didn't, nor did many others. If his background and qualifications were included in the article, how would you have spun it? "Economics and banking analyst Graham Catterwell predicts city-wide deluge"?

You completely miss the point anyway.Catterwell doesn't claim to be an expert.In fact he doesn't claim to be anything.He has simply drawn together the information available (and he has the local knowledge and intellect to do this) and drawn some conclusions in a credible way.I and others have found his analysis very valuable and I have not seen as good a summary elsewhere.Dr Seri is excellent but he provides something a little different, namely credible updates.

He is not merely presenting a summary, he is making predictions. He might be intelligent and well-connected (as if that makes his predictions more credible), but someone who is not qualified and experienced in the relevant field should not be making predictions that are published in mass media for public consumption. Predictions from any unknown hydrology professor would be more credible than this highly intelligent and well-connected banker.

I'd like to see Catterwell appear on Thai PBS with more of his analysis and predictions.

Edited November 10, 2011 by hyperdimension

[jayboy]

He is not merely presenting a summary, he is making predictions. He might be intelligent and well-connected (as if that makes his predictions more credible), but someone who is not qualified and experienced in the relevant field should not be making predictions that are published in mass media for public consumption. Predictions from any unknown hydrology professor would be more credible than this highly intelligent and well-connected banker.

All these points have been covered already.

Edited November 10, 2011 by jayboy

[ResX]

The numbers, first I made a mistake by writing it was in Cu/Ft. it should be in Cubic Meters, big difference. That number came from Dr. Siri on a news interview. It is very close to the numbers quoted in another news source which I can't link to by forum rules. I'd like to give credit to the source but not sure of the rules. But here are numbers from that report. (I'm paraphrasing):

Northern runoff has been estimated at 14 billion cubic metres.

Nearly half has flowed into the sea. leaving 8.5 billion cu/m in the Central Plains, said a spokesman.

Of the 8.5 billion cu/m of water, about 3 billion cu/m is in the Chao Phraya River and 3.5 billion cu/m in the fields in the central provinces and north of Bangkok.

This would leave only about 5 billion cu/m of water for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration to manage.

With about 400 million cu/m of water being drained into the sea every day, the floodwater could be drained out of the capital in 11 days.

Now where they get the last statement of 400 million cu/m is unknown to me. This is assuming the water is pumped out via the rivers which already are at capacity. So how is this 5 billion getting out? When 8 billion still has to be removed. They are playing with numbers. Take away 8 leaving 6 makes it sound easy to do. you still have 14 billion that you've got to get out and that doesn't include the water that continues to flow down stream from the north. Creative mathematics!! 14-8.5 = 3 + 3.5?? Where did 5 come from or was it 5.5? Maybe translation error going from Thai math symbols to Arabic?

Average discharge of Chao Phraya river is about 2,200cubic meter per second, measured at the river mouth. This is non flood scenario. If the flood level is two meter above average, then I have calculated the natural outgoing flow is about 4,700 cubic meter per second. Block or no block makes no difference. Flood level that counts. For a purpose calculating time required to drain 8.5billion cubic meter of water we should use average value for these two, i.e. about 3,500cubic meter per second or about 300million cubic meter per day.

So we can conclude that even no rainfall, it takes about 28 days to bring back the flood level of Chao Phraya to its normal level (2m down). But then, the incoming flow from the north is not zero. I would say it is about 50- 70million cubic meter per day and this is expected to sustain over the next two month at least. Therefore the realistic time required for the flood to completely over will be about 33-35 days. The assumption is the monsoon is over.

You can expect over the period the flooded areas will back to normal in stages. It starts from upper upstream...... I hope I won't be far off.

Wait....Probably I missed something. The incoming flow from the north may be well above 200million cubic meter per day. The 50-70 million cubic meter comes from Bhumibol and Sirkit catchment alone. These two catchments represent only 20% of water for the entire Chao Phraya catchment. I'm afraid it takes a lot longer than 35 days. I hope that I was wrong. Where I could go wrong?

Edited November 10, 2011 by ResX

[rubl]

begin removed ...

I'm afraid it takes a lot longer than 35 days. I hope that I was wrong. Where I could go wrong?

Don't worry old chap, you're in good company. None of the figures provided by officials seem to add up without a margin of error of only about 75% or so. Trying to interpret and make sense of those official guestimates is for men more wise than we are

(I'm dreaming of a dry Christmas)

Edited November 10, 2011 by rubl

[satiariyan]

Wait....Probably I missed something. The incoming flow from the north may be well above 200million cubic meter per day. The 50-70 million cubic meter comes from Bhumibol and Sirkit catchment alone. These two catchments represent only 20% of water for the entire Chao Phraya catchment. I'm afraid it takes a lot longer than 35 days. I hope that I was wrong. Where I could go wrong?

Yes, I think you missed something - at least if your conclusions are based on the assumption that each and every cubic meter released from the dams or flooding the central planes upcountry flows down to Bangkok. Lots of it get trapped in rice fields and valleys upcountry until it evaporates, gets sucked up by the earth, gets drunk etc. and the higher the flood up there, the larger will be the area where water have floated to and catched.

Whenever I've seen those seemingly well-calculated doomsday predictions, I have looked in vain for indications of wether or not the mentioned 12-16 billion cubic meter are measured at the dams or are measured slightly above Bangkok. I have yet to see anyone explicitly mention this, so I assume they simply don't have a clue.

On the other hand, Dr Seri - who can't but be familiar with those two-digit billion figures the doomsday-experts are fond of - seems to currently operate with about 1,600 million cubic meter waiting for entry above Bangkok plus about 800 million cubicmeter already on its way down east and west of Bangkok plus a few smaller branches heading towards the center and expected to flood it all for a cople of weeks.

[ResX]

Wait....Probably I missed something. The incoming flow from the north may be well above 200million cubic meter per day. The 50-70 million cubic meter comes from Bhumibol and Sirkit catchment alone. These two catchments represent only 20% of water for the entire Chao Phraya catchment. I'm afraid it takes a lot longer than 35 days. I hope that I was wrong. Where I could go wrong?

Yes, I think you missed something - at least if your conclusions are based on the assumption that each and every cubic meter released from the dams or flooding the central planes upcountry flows down to Bangkok. Lots of it get trapped in rice fields and valleys upcountry until it evaporates, gets sucked up by the earth, gets drunk etc. and the higher the flood up there, the larger will be the area where water have floated to and catched.

Whenever I've seen those seemingly well-calculated doomsday predictions, I have looked in vain for indications of wether or not the mentioned 12-16 billion cubic meter are measured at the dams or are measured slightly above Bangkok. I have yet to see anyone explicitly mention this, so I assume they simply don't have a clue.

On the other hand, Dr Seri - who can't but be familiar with those two-digit billion figures the doomsday-experts are fond of - seems to currently operate with about 1,600 million cubic meter waiting for entry above Bangkok plus about 800 million cubicmeter already on its way down east and west of Bangkok plus a few smaller branches heading towards the center and expected to flood it all for a cople of weeks.

The waters that get trapped in the rice fields most of them will eventually flow down stream. If they could go there from the main stream, naturally they could move back to the main stream when the main stream water levels fall below the trapped water levels of the rice fields. Unless they get trapped permanently due to geography of flood plains or by human interventions.

Don't rely on evaporation the save the day. At best it will bring down water level by 3-5mm per day.

The soils that contain the flood waters have already saturated, long ago. They won't be able to absorb waters that much.

I know at least one thing that I really missed it out. The 8.5billion cubic meter of water probably inclusive average stream flow or permanent water that resides in the normal river stream. I assumed exclusive. You don't want to drain this water as well. Based on my very brief estimate it could be far less than 2 billion cubic meter. I don't know for sure. To conclude, I think the normal water level measured at river mouth of CP will be reached in about 6 weeks.

Can you hope for a dry Christmas? Hopefully.... It depends on how high you are measured from water level near river mouth.

Both 1,600 million cubic meter and 800 million cubic meter of water waiting to enter Bangkok have to have the referenced periods to give them some meanings. They should use flow rate rather volumetric unit to make the information meaningful.

I think I'm not far off to predict the natural outflow of CP at the moment is about 4,700cubic meter per second or 400million cubic meter per day (Excluding any pumping operation). If that incoming flow of 2,400 million cubic meter is the daily rate then you know what will happen to Bangkok over the next few days.

[Nisa]

Oh, a banker, eh? Well, that doesn't add much credibility these days, unfortunately.

I think I will stick to listening to Dr. Seri (or Seree)

This news article should have only been a letter or, at most, an Op Ed, not a full-blown "special" news article.

Notice that no background biographical information, such as professional qualifications, about the author has been divulged in the content of the article, when in most other cases it is (often either at the beginning or a short biographical summary at the end of an article). This attempt to hide such biographical information is probably in order to avoid criticism and dismissal of the article and author, as in this discussion thread - that he is not at all an expert in a field that he is writing and professing about. The area in which he is an expert (economics and banking) is not at all covered in the article that he has written.

Can you imagine an article on banking and economics written by a flood expert and published in the newspapers for the entire nation to read?

[Nisa]

How long?

">It's going to be at least another 2-3 weeks before Bangkok floodwaters peak. It's anybody's guess as to how long it will take for this water to flow (mainly) or be pumped (partially) out, but to say 2-3 weeks from the flood peak would probably be over optimistic. It'll be at very least another month before Bangkok is relatively dry, and then it will take some time to clean up.

I have just read that the Irrigation Department say that Bangkok could be dry in 11 days.

Who do we believe?

Hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Stay positive. One of the terrible things for people in the path of the water is all the unknowns. It is really having a heavy mental impact on people. So, stay and pass along positiveness but also remain prepared.

[RickBradford]

Even with ResX's analysis, I still can't get a handle on the conflicting messages being sent out by the authorities, thus:

1. More than half the flood waters have passed to the sea already and the worst has passed.

2. The Big Bag barrier has carried out its delaying function but will inevitably fail within 5 days or so, causing inundation of central BKK.

[ResX]

The numbers, first I made a mistake by writing it was in Cu/Ft. it should be in Cubic Meters, big difference. That number came from Dr. Siri on a news interview. It is very close to the numbers quoted in another news source which I can't link to by forum rules. I'd like to give credit to the source but not sure of the rules. But here are numbers from that report. (I'm paraphrasing):

Northern runoff has been estimated at 14 billion cubic metres.

Nearly half has flowed into the sea. leaving 8.5 billion cu/m in the Central Plains, said a spokesman.

Of the 8.5 billion cu/m of water, about 3 billion cu/m is in the Chao Phraya River and 3.5 billion cu/m in the fields in the central provinces and north of Bangkok.

This would leave only about 5 billion cu/m of water for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration to manage.

With about 400 million cu/m of water being drained into the sea every day, the floodwater could be drained out of the capital in 11 days.

Now where they get the last statement of 400 million cu/m is unknown to me. This is assuming the water is pumped out via the rivers which already are at capacity. So how is this 5 billion getting out? When 8 billion still has to be removed. They are playing with numbers. Take away 8 leaving 6 makes it sound easy to do. you still have 14 billion that you've got to get out and that doesn't include the water that continues to flow down stream from the north. Creative mathematics!! 14-8.5 = 3 + 3.5?? Where did 5 come from or was it 5.5? Maybe translation error going from Thai math symbols to Arabic?

11 days? Either the given information about the remaining flood waters are wrong, or they are pumping out at the rate of 3,000 cubic meter per second (260 million cubic meter per day) or they simply used the wrong maths. Yes. It is true that currently the CP river is draining out about 400 million cubic meter of water per day (4,700 cubic meter per second). They can expect the water of CP river will go down. Unfortunately, as the water level goes down and so does the natural rate of draining. If water level drops by 1m the rate of draining will be about 2,600 cubic meter per second or 300million per day. From here on the rate of draw down will be extremely slow taking into consideration that the average flow (incoming) of CH river is 2, 200 cubic meter per second! You can hope the first 1m draw down can be achieved in about 34 days assuming CH river flow is at the average of 2,200 cubic meter per second. If it is higher then it takes longer.

If draw down of flood level by 0.5m can make the whole Bangkok dry then you can achieve this in 3 weeks.

[rubl]

Thailand Live Thursday 10/11/11 #123:

10pm: FROC believes flood situation in BKK will improve by the end of November #ch3 /via@tukky_nt

I can only assume that with water flowing this moving target is unavoidable

[Nisa]

Even with ResX's analysis, I still can't get a handle on the conflicting messages being sent out by the authorities, thus:

1. More than half the flood waters have passed to the sea already and the worst has passed.

2. The Big Bag barrier has carried out its delaying function but will inevitably fail within 5 days or so, causing inundation of central BKK.

Why are you listening to the government or anyone else when you have a banker willing to tell you all you need to know about the flood?

Edited November 10, 2011 by Nisa

[ARGUSEYE]

Does anybody know how much water evaporates from a water surface under current circumstances??

I read somewhere that under perfect conditions (sunny, warm, dry air) it can be up to one inch (2.5cms)

If correct, that would be a gigantic amount of water over time

Edited November 11, 2011 by metisdead
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