Bangkok Flood Update

[w11guy]

This is rubbish. All these so-called experts have been claiming for weeks that central BBK would be flooded any day now. The water has been due to arrive at Victory Monument tomorrow for the last week. At that speed it should arrive in Sukhumvit sometime around Xmas 2012.

It's complete rubbish that supermarkets have mostly empty shelves. Go to Villa Market - they are almost fully stocked, with only a few items missing.

I just can't see what all the fuss is about. Life is normal in Silom. I even bought water today and the shop had lots of it.

Has this guy been to BKK recently? It doesn't sound like he has.

[SteeleJoe]

This is rubbish. All these so-called experts have been claiming for weeks that central BBK would be flooded any day now. The water has been due to arrive at Victory Monument tomorrow for the last week. At that speed it should arrive in Sukhumvit sometime around Xmas 2012.

It's complete rubbish that supermarkets have mostly empty shelves. Go to Villa Market - they are almost fully stocked, with only a few items missing.

I just can't see what all the fuss is about. Life is normal in Silom. I even bought water today and the shop had lots of it.

Has this guy been to BKK recently? It doesn't sound like he has.

Wow.

[musiclover]

This is rubbish. All these so-called experts have been claiming for weeks that central BBK would be flooded any day now. The water has been due to arrive at Victory Monument tomorrow for the last week. At that speed it should arrive in Sukhumvit sometime around Xmas 2012.

It's complete rubbish that supermarkets have mostly empty shelves. Go to Villa Market - they are almost fully stocked, with only a few items missing.

I just can't see what all the fuss is about. Life is normal in Silom. I even bought water today and the shop had lots of it.

Has this guy been to BKK recently? It doesn't sound like he has.

I think the Hilton still has steaks too and good stocks of Chateau Latour also,so that's OK then!

[erobando]

w11guy might be a little extreme but he's right that any flooding to the Silom area will be minimal. It's higher up than surrounding areas.

Water won't be high and won't stay for long. The major long-term floods will be to the east down to parts Samut Prakan and in Thonburi.through to Samut Sakhon.

Edited November 9, 2011 by erobando

[forumuser10]

Based on what I have glanced at on the net, he is another doom and gloom expat when it comes to most things Thai and a self-proclaimed expert in all matters Thai..

Proving what I previously indicated that most Thai Visa members would have no idea, and would have to resort to googling.The chippy comment above is typical.

I guarantee you that the likes of Abhisit, Korn, Anand P,even Thaksin know exactly who Graham Catterwell is.There's an expatriate world with no connection to Thai Visa at all and that surprises some.

Don´t expect too much, TIT!!

Thaivisa Is Thaivisa!

[moe666]

Bad news boys, Raining in Chiang mai as I type this, so prepare for more water, rainy season not over.

[Mrjlh]

This is rubbish. All these so-called experts have been claiming for weeks that central BBK would be flooded any day now. The water has been due to arrive at Victory Monument tomorrow for the last week. At that speed it should arrive in Sukhumvit sometime around Xmas 2012.

It's complete rubbish that supermarkets have mostly empty shelves. Go to Villa Market - they are almost fully stocked, with only a few items missing.

I just can't see what all the fuss is about. Life is normal in Silom. I even bought water today and the shop had lots of it.

Has this guy been to BKK recently? It doesn't sound like he has.

Wow.

Exactly...tell the more than 300 million cubic feet of water yet to make it to the gulf, it's making a big deal out of nothing. Or better yet why don't you tell that to all the people who have lost their homes and everything they own it's just a big fuss over nothing. Oh wait you're in Silom...you're special..you're protected. Oh...I forgot...all those people who lost everything were protected too or so they were told if I recall. If you do live in an area that doesn't get flooded just count your blessings. You're lucky. There's a lot of water out there yet to get to the gulf. How it gets there and path it takes has become anyone's guess.

Too all you "naysayers" out there, you can't stop a flood of any magnitude by just dropping a few bags down and wishing it away. You simply can not predict what flood waters are going to do especially when you have a chaotic government that doesn't know what to do either. You can not control natures elements...period. The measures that were in place are obviously flawed. But sometimes it takes an actual event to find out if it works. Take a look at thew Tsunami walls in Japan that failed recently. The person writing the story actually has some very valid statements and is doing nothing more than point them out. And yes, what's new that we don't already know! He's preaching to the choir. And I think all those who say it's not a big deal have their head buried to deep in the sand and wallowing in their own self interest.

[noitom]

it would have been interesting and maybe more useful by way of a warning, and let's get our act together, if Graham had commented more on the health, sanitary, contamination, disease aspect and its potential scope and scale. This to me, is the most significant issue. Economic fallout is one thing, but monumental health and disease issues are quite another which also shuts down the food and farming industries. We need to push government, private sector business , and humanitarian organizations to apply more pressure to increase awareness and motivate action on this disease and public health risk. Army medical teams need to be rolling out methods of evacuating people to isolation centers and providing treatment on the spot too others. disease like Leptospirosis, Cholera, Malaria, Dengue, Typhoid spread very quickly and have devastating effects on populations. The rat population in Thailand is immense and particularly in Bangkok. Now magnify that by trash and garbage pile ons and sewer backups mixed in with flood water and you have an eye opener. This, not counting electrocutions and drownings.

Thailand needs a focused , coordinated management effort with "qualified" medical and medical management experts working closely with population dislocation and treatment professionals. This would not be the "round up the usual suspects" that normally happens in Thailand with political appointees , army relationships and power brokers designating chief personnel who come armed with three or four honorary degrees and forty years of army or government service in Thailand. It would be real action and problem solvers in the mass disease and containment and control business. This is a real wake up call for Thailand, a nation where it is difficult to find soap and paper in bathrooms unless it's a four or five star hotel or shopping mall. The effectiveness of Thailand's recognition of the need for treatment and containment of disease as well as its ability to control it and solve it will determine Thailand's future. There will be no "building for the future" and reinvestment for a five year plan to remodel the city and water management unless Thailand nails the spread and impact of disease and sickness now.

[endure]

Based on what I have glanced at on the net, he is another doom and gloom expat when it comes to most things Thai and a self-proclaimed expert in all matters Thai..

Proving what I previously indicated that most Thai Visa members would have no idea, and would have to resort to googling.The chippy comment above is typical.

I guarantee you that the likes of Abhisit, Korn, Anand P,even Thaksin know exactly who Graham Catterwell is.There's an expatriate world with no connection to Thai Visa at all and that surprises some.

So he's well connected. What does he know about floods?

[RickBradford]

It's a normal feature of Third World countries to have over-centralisation.

Would the US be ruined by the loss of New York? Damaged, certainly, we saw a bit of that in 2001, but not brought to its knees by any means.

London, Paris, Stockholm, Berlin and so on are important but not critical in the way that Bangkok, Jakarta, Saigon or Manila are.

Note that the Japanese are planning to build a parallel city to Tokyo to take the slack when Tokyo gets hit by the next big earthquake.

Decentralisation is expensive and a politically difficult project, especially in a sensitive culture, where relocations have traditionally only occurred when forced by humiliating military defeats.

[pcgeekz05]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

"Atleast everything that he said was true" how about you? what can you say about the situation? let all the readers know what are you going to say or share.."

[KeyserSoze01]

Ah, I love reading all the remarks from nay-sayers that have no more information than the man in the moon. Especially those who say nothing is going to happen because the local markets still have goods for sale.

This is a editorial piece expressing this person's opinion on the matter, although the difference is that he is a westerner, applying pragmatic logic to the situation based on what information is available. Not emotional, chest thumping by someone with a political or financial stake in the crisis who is trying to save face. Don't see where he claimed to be an expert on flood management, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to examine the facts and draw the same conclusion. You cannot shovel 10 kilos of <deleted> into a 1 kilo bag, same same with water.

[Nisa]

It's a normal feature of Third World countries to have over-centralisation.

Would the US be ruined by the loss of New York? Damaged, certainly, we saw a bit of that in 2001, but not brought to its knees by any means.

London, Paris, Stockholm, Berlin and so on are important but not critical in the way that Bangkok, Jakarta, Saigon or Manila are.

Note that the Japanese are planning to build a parallel city to Tokyo to take the slack when Tokyo gets hit by the next big earthquake.

Decentralisation is expensive and a politically difficult project, especially in a sensitive culture, where relocations have traditionally only occurred when forced by humiliating military defeats.

First of all Thailand is not a third world nation.

Second of all comparing the destruction of a large building complex in NYC doesn't come close to this crisis in Thailand.

Thirdly, the floods have impacted a huge part of Thailand and not just Bangkok. The area affected runs from Chiang Mai through Bangkok.

But forgetting all this ... Consider this:

Bangkok is not only the Capital of the country but has a population of 12 Million. which is about 15% of the entire country. Bangkok also occupies about 1.5% of the total area of Thailand.

The USA has 19 times more area than Thailand and approx. 4.5 times the population. Thailand has an average of 327 people per sq. mile compared to the US which has 84 people per sq. mile.

The only fair comparison to Bangkok being flooded is to say that much of the US eastern seaboard would be flooded including; New York (entire state), Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington DC., Maryland and Virginia. These locations would also encompass approx. 15% of the population (same as Thailand) but would account for a little more than 3% of the total area of the USA but this is a beyond fair comarrison given the size of the USA and population density compared to Thailand ... and again, don't forget we are pretending Bangkok is the only area impacted by the flood..

Bottom line is the USA would probably be considerably more crippled in a similar event. It is not about some boundaries on a map given a name but about population and land area affected.

Edited November 9, 2011 by Nisa

[Nisa]

Exactly...tell the more than 300 million cubic feet of water yet to make it to the gulf, it's making a big deal out of nothing. Or better yet why don't you tell that to all the people who have lost their homes and everything they own it's just a big fuss over nothing. Oh wait you're in Silom...you're special..you're protected. Oh...I forgot...all those people who lost everything were protected too or so they were told if I recall. If you do live in an area that doesn't get flooded just count your blessings. You're lucky. There's a lot of water out there yet to get to the gulf. How it gets there and path it takes has become anyone's guess.

Too all you "naysayers" out there, you can't stop a flood of any magnitude by just dropping a few bags down and wishing it away. You simply can not predict what flood waters are going to do especially when you have a chaotic government that doesn't know what to do either. You can not control natures elements...period. The measures that were in place are obviously flawed. But sometimes it takes an actual event to find out if it works. Take a look at thew Tsunami walls in Japan that failed recently. The person writing the story actually has some very valid statements and is doing nothing more than point them out. And yes, what's new that we don't already know! He's preaching to the choir. And I think all those who say it's not a big deal have their head buried to deep in the sand and wallowing in their own self interest.

Agree. I really had no idea of the magnitude of this thing early on. Back in early to mid-October I joked at my neighbors for stocking up on supplies. It really has been a wake-up call to realize the mass amount of water that needs to be drained into the gulf. However, I think a lot of the criticism of the current government (which I wish was not voted in) is unfair and has added to the chaos. Opposition party members have done a lot to distract from helping people by playing political games instead of having the immediate needs of Thailand and its people in mind.

Lingluck inherited this problem and there is nobody around in government who has ever had to deal with something like this before. It takes years and years to create infrastructure to deal with this amount of water coming and covering so much area. Just look at a map of Thailand and note the location of Bangkok to where the water is coming from and where it needs to go. I am actually very amazed they have been able to manipulate this huge force of nature as much as they have when it comes to protecting such a densely populated and financially important area.

No doubt there have been blunders but there is and always will be with these types of crisis' regardless of where they happen. As you mentioned, just look at Japan and the Tsunami and consider Japan is the or at least one of the most prepared, experienced and efficient countries in the world when it comes to dealing with Nature's forces and their aftermaths.

I can only hope that Thais pull together and think of the greater good and needs of the people and not be as negative or want to put politics first as so many of the posters here enjoy doing. There will be plenty of time for finger pointing and blame games later.

Edited November 9, 2011 by Nisa

[melvinmelvin]

nisa: "First of all Thailand is not a third world nation."

On the international scene, anywhere within the UN system and within other international organisations Thailand

considers herself as a developing country and part of the so called third world nations.

[Nisa]

nisa: "First of all Thailand is not a third world nation."

On the international scene, anywhere within the UN system and within other international organisations Thailand

considers herself as a developing country and part of the so called third world nations.

You might want to do some updated research as Thailand is a "Newly industrialized Country" which is above a "Developing Country" and to add further a Developing Country is above what the UN terms "Least Developed Countries" which would actually equate to the old term Third World.

http://www.nationson...d_countries.htm

Edit: Bottom line is there are all sorts of different terminologies used by different organizations and depending on which aspects of a country you are measuring but Thailand is not considered 3rd World and if you ever have been to a 3rd World Country you would be well aware of this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newly_industrialized_country

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Developing_country

Edited November 9, 2011 by Nisa

[bkkjames]

So back to flooding, the river this am is higher than its been for a few days-but lower than than the last high tide we had a week or so ago.

[metisdead]

An unintelligible post with formatting issues has been removed.

[petedk]

How long?

">It's going to be at least another 2-3 weeks before Bangkok floodwaters peak. It's anybody's guess as to how long it will take for this water to flow (mainly) or be pumped (partially) out, but to say 2-3 weeks from the flood peak would probably be over optimistic. It'll be at very least another month before Bangkok is relatively dry, and then it will take some time to clean up.

I have just read that the Irrigation Department say that Bangkok could be dry in 11 days.

Who do we believe?

Edited November 9, 2011 by petedk

[Gweiloman]

How long?

">It's going to be at least another 2-3 weeks before Bangkok floodwaters peak. It's anybody's guess as to how long it will take for this water to flow (mainly) or be pumped (partially) out, but to say 2-3 weeks from the flood peak would probably be over optimistic. It'll be at very least another month before Bangkok is relatively dry, and then it will take some time to clean up.

I have just read that the Irrigation Department say that Bangkok could be dry in 11 days.

Who do we believe?

Believe whatever you want to believe and make the appropriate preparations. Most of us have been blessed with brains - shame to let it go to waste, don't you think?

[xenophon]

Oh, a banker, eh? Well, that doesn't add much credibility these days, unfortunately.

I think I will stick to listening to Dr. Seri (or Seree)

[whybother]

Agree. I really had no idea of the magnitude of this thing early on. Back in early to mid-October I joked at my neighbors for stocking up on supplies. It really has been a wake-up call to realize the mass amount of water that needs to be drained into the gulf. However, I think a lot of the criticism of the current government (which I wish was not voted in) is unfair and has added to the chaos. Opposition party members have done a lot to distract from helping people by playing political games instead of having the immediate needs of Thailand and its people in mind.

The government have been playing their fair share of political games too, blaming Sukhumband for the flooding, and then when they take control, doing the same as Sukhumband was doing.

Lingluck inherited this problem and there is nobody around in government who has ever had to deal with something like this before. It takes years and years to create infrastructure to deal with this amount of water coming and covering so much area. Just look at a map of Thailand and note the location of Bangkok to where the water is coming from and where it needs to go. I am actually very amazed they have been able to manipulate this huge force of nature as much as they have when it comes to protecting such a densely populated and financially important area.

I think you'll find that quite a few of the current government and their "advisers" were part of governments in 1995 and probably also 1983.

No doubt there have been blunders but there is and always will be with these types of crisis' regardless of where they happen. As you mentioned, just look at Japan and the Tsunami and consider Japan is the or at least one of the most prepared, experienced and efficient countries in the world when it comes to dealing with Nature's forces and their aftermaths.

Japan had an hour to prepare for the tsunami once the earthquake struck. The Thai government had 6 weeks to prepare for flooding in Bangkok. The government couldn't have stopped the floods, but there is a sh!t load they could have done to handle the organisation and communication before the floods got serious. They didn't even set up FROC until the floods were already seriously affecting parts north of Bangkok. They haven't even started with the aftermath yet. We'll have to wait to see how much they stuff that up.

[Gonsalviz]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

No but his predictions gel with about my best guess, simply following data, sat photos, amount of water north, etc..

And you are no expert but have found someone that is no expert to back up your assumptions?

[Gonsalviz]

I think we need more boats to push water out of Bangkok.

+1

[Gonsalviz]

So who's Graham Caterwell then? According to the 'net he's a British former banker. He doesn't appear to be an 'expert' on anything to do with floods, tides or rain.

A resident for nearly 40 years, very well connected, highly intelligent, Oxford graduate.Probably one of the most knowledgeable (about Thailand) foreigners in the Kingdom.Not an engineer or expert on flood management but I can't think of anyone as capable of assembling evidence, analysing it and drawing credible conclusions.

Not perhaps someone the typical Thai Visa member would come across however.

and yet u seem well versed on Graham's bio

When you have something constructive, please come back.

[Gonsalviz]

...and he practically not saying anything of value. He is just telling us, whet we know: nothing! All speculating and tea-leaf- reading!

Can I write an article in THE NATION, too?

Yes please enlighten us with your pearls of wisdom!

If you are writing here on ThaiVisa, I think it is pretty much the equivalent of having an article in The Nation

+1

[Gonsalviz]

At least the dry season looks like it finally kicked in. Who do I thank for that?

Me?

For god's sake everybody under the sun has been blamed for the flood.

[Gonsalviz]

It's a normal feature of Third World countries to have over-centralisation.

Would the US be ruined by the loss of New York? Damaged, certainly, we saw a bit of that in 2001, but not brought to its knees by any means.

London, Paris, Stockholm, Berlin and so on are important but not critical in the way that Bangkok, Jakarta, Saigon or Manila are.

Note that the Japanese are planning to build a parallel city to Tokyo to take the slack when Tokyo gets hit by the next big earthquake.

Decentralisation is expensive and a politically difficult project, especially in a sensitive culture, where relocations have traditionally only occurred when forced by humiliating military defeats.

+3

[Gonsalviz]

It's a normal feature of Third World countries to have over-centralisation.

Would the US be ruined by the loss of New York? Damaged, certainly, we saw a bit of that in 2001, but not brought to its knees by any means.

London, Paris, Stockholm, Berlin and so on are important but not critical in the way that Bangkok, Jakarta, Saigon or Manila are.

Note that the Japanese are planning to build a parallel city to Tokyo to take the slack when Tokyo gets hit by the next big earthquake.

Decentralisation is expensive and a politically difficult project, especially in a sensitive culture, where relocations have traditionally only occurred when forced by humiliating military defeats.

First of all Thailand is not a third world nation.

Second of all comparing the destruction of a large building complex in NYC doesn't come close to this crisis in Thailand.

Thirdly, the floods have impacted a huge part of Thailand and not just Bangkok. The area affected runs from Chiang Mai through Bangkok.

But forgetting all this ... Consider this:

Bangkok is not only the Capital of the country but has a population of 12 Million. which is about 15% of the entire country. Bangkok also occupies about 1.5% of the total area of Thailand.

The USA has 19 times more area than Thailand and approx. 4.5 times the population. Thailand has an average of 327 people per sq. mile compared to the US which has 84 people per sq. mile.

The only fair comparison to Bangkok being flooded is to say that much of the US eastern seaboard would be flooded including; New York (entire state), Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington DC., Maryland and Virginia. These locations would also encompass approx. 15% of the population (same as Thailand) but would account for a little more than 3% of the total area of the USA but this is a beyond fair comarrison given the size of the USA and population density compared to Thailand ... and again, don't forget we are pretending Bangkok is the only area impacted by the flood..

Bottom line is the USA would probably be considerably more crippled in a similar event. It is not about some boundaries on a map given a name but about population and land area affected.

+3. The whiners have to realize there is simply no way to deal with this and they want it done now in a 3rd world country. Phenomenal. It is exactly why I choose to live far away form them.

[metisdead]

Posts that were insulting, inflammatory and baiting have been removed.