Nothing Abstract About This Crisis Of Confidence: Thai Opinion

[webfact]

EDITORIAL

Nothing abstract about this crisis of confidence

The Nation

Tackling floods in the long-term requires political will - and investors are watching

"Business confidence" has always been a phrase used abstractly. It is often associated with how stable a government is, or how well a nation's currency is performing on the world stage, or whether a country's political leader is healthy or ill. Rarely has it been related to what really matters. But things have changed.

Thailand is now facing a crisis of business confidence. The flood of the century has swept away most, if not all, of the "pretentious" criteria people like to link "confidence" with. If you want to invest in Thailand, the questions now are very simple: Will floods hit again? And if they do, will they hit my factories?

The Yingluck government has tried to address these questions, although the appointment of economic guru Virabongsa Ramakula to lead long-term planning for post-flood recovery can be seen in two ways. Optimists will regard the government’s embrace of a respected outsider as being open-minded and a good sign for transparency. Pessimists, on the other hand, will consider it as a tacit admission of failure.

Virabongsa will lead a high-ranking post-flood reconstruction committee. The panel includes the most senior economic figures of the Yingluck Cabinet as well as the who’s who in Thailand’s water management circles. They all will have to work under Virabongsa, who over the years has consistently been a top candidate for government economic jobs.

What observers feel

Observers say Virabongsa’s appointment will help usher him into the Cabinet in the next reshuffle. Some believe his prominence was badly needed to rally flood recovery efforts and rebuild the confidence of investors. Others rule it out as a familiar diversionary card of Thaksin Shinawatra at a time when the government led by his sister is facing bitter criticism from left and right.

Virabongsa has hit the road quickly, meeting with business and diplomatic representatives and giving no-nonsense interviews. On Thursday, he was clear-cut in his warning that foreigners’ confidence has been badly battered by the flooding. He said the future of foreign investment here would hinge heavily on the country's ability to prevent a disaster of this scale from happening again.

Virabongsa gave special mention to Japan, which is the top investor in this land. He warned that Japanese investors could look elsewhere if Thailand fails to guarantee them that massive flooding won’t return in the next five years.

He obviously understands the situation acutely. Whether that will lead to a cohesive recovery plan of course will not be up to him alone. The "setting" seems to be all right, given the structure of his high-profile committee and the fact that everyone seems to be appreciative of the need for the government to embark on a phenomenal spending spree. Success, however, will depend on strong political leadership, effective implementation, honesty and transparency.

Political moves not always effective

The reconstruction of Thailand will require massive expenditures. Concern over future corruption has already been voiced even though projects are yet to be planned and laid down on the table. Having Virabongsa as chairman of the elite panel to explore quick and effective routes to recovery may more or less help pacify doubters, but no single hero can lead Thailand out of this mega crisis.

The flood crisis has proved that political moves that work in normal times are not necessarily effective when the government faces battles on all fronts. The bad news for Thailand, which must be closely monitored by the international community at the moment, is that old-style politics is trying to reassert itself.

And politics is not the only problem that the Yingluck government will face as it tries to bring the country back on its feet. The government also faces the tough task of balancing priorities. Staggering business losses and the untold suffering of ordinary citizens are ensuing side by side.

Reconstruction is often used in political rhetoric, but this time the country needs it for real. Which, of course, leaves us the resounding question of whether our politicians are capable of delivering the goods.

-- The Nation 2011-11-14

[RickBradford]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

[steady]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

I believe that is what the vast majority of educated and worldly Thaivisa members think too! But maybe this is the "wake up call", maybe Thailand now realises that a corrupt society makes it a weak society which in turn provides weak willed (minded?) politicians. I haven't been affected by the floods other than missing out on some eggs or beers but I can empathise with the ordinary people. Yet when I watch the policicians at work I just keep wondering what sort of people get to the top of the tree in Thailand. It's certainly not the best, most able and honest, but what do I know, I'm only a guest in the kingdom paying taxes and jumping through petty hoops for the priviledge.

Edited November 14, 2011 by steady

[MEL1]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

I believe that is what the vast majority of educated and worldly Thaivisa members think too! But maybe this is the "wake up call", maybe Thailand now realises that a corrupt society makes it a weak society which in turn provides weak willed (minded?) politicians. I haven't been affected by the floods other than missing out on some eggs or beers but I can empathise with the ordinary people. Yet when I watch the policicians at work I just keep wondering what sort of people get to the top of the tree in Thailand. It's certainly not the best, most able and honest, but what do I know, I'm only a guest in the kingdom paying taxes and jumping through petty hoops for the priviledge.

You made a very acute and correct observation in your last sentence, and I agree thoroughly. We, all farangs that is (excepting residency holders - few in numbers), are all 'guests' here, and yet so many complain about events here and the way of life, and yet wish to remain here. To me that doesn't add up, for one.

My observation, though, is that you set aside 'ordinary' people into the same context as your missing out on the floods and being farang. I don't objecy heavily, but I do object to that. My wife and I revisited our home in Sin Thorn Village, Bang Pun, Phatumtani for the first time in a month. The stench when we opened the door made us vomit, and we were in a boat traversing the front doors when opened, as the water is still 1.8m in the living room we entered. The water is black, is a sea of stagnant excrement and urine filled water. We rowed, with the man we paid 500 baht to obviously, to the bottom of the stairs and went up. We are lucky, the water originally only got half way upstairs, and all we own is now safe and unaffected. However, we won't be able to live there for at least another 3 months, in reality. My wife is Thai.

My point being: I would consider her 'ordinary' (well actually, she is extraordinary, but that's besides), or an ordinary Thai (although she is a Uni lecturer), and I would consider myself to be an 'ordinary' farang, who pays taxes and works here legally. Thus, surely 'ordinary' can embrace both 'a farang' and his 'ordinary' Thai wife in the same context, can't it?

Going back to the politicians. If you haven't been affected by floods then your obesrvations can't be nearly 50% in emotion than those who have have been, and are going, through it.

We were told continually that there was no problem in Bang Pun, until the walls of our estate collapsed at 2.00a.m. and we were suddenly, within 2 hours, having water in our lounge which is raised 3ft above road level. We had been lied to and misled. Then when we got to a safe haven, we saw the reality of Phatum and our village and our home having been flooded deliberately to keep the capital dry. This country has always been a 'one for one, and one for all' country, never occupied, always the people fought together. Well there is a divide now. Believe me there is. Even between the people of Don Mueang who are moaning at 1m! and the residents of inner BKK. Beyond Don Meang, we know, we have Rangsit, Phatum, Navarnakorn, and Ayutthaya to whom the sluice gates were opened in reverse order, to give time for BKK to prepare.

Most of those people had faith, to some degree, in politicians - of both the resident and the opposition parties. Now there is scorn and hatred for most politicians, and these are words of reflection from 'ordinary' people in all of these areas, after long discussions. Nobody cares about current business, or future foreign investments at this moment. Nobody cares whether Yuan, Yen, Dollars or Won are coming right now, or in the near distant future. They, we, really don't care for pressing foreign investment, because it isn't going to be shortcoming anyway. We care about getting our homes, our communities and our environments back up and running, cleaned, and life back to normal. I believe that is also what foreign countries would like to see too, before they consider even re-investing if they invested before.

If you can't look after your own, then you sure aren't going to look after somebody else's.

-m. :jap:

[geriatrickid]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

Standard corporate negotiating M.O. Scream, stamp your feet, and make a few threats to get attention. It really is no different the way the Japanese car manufacturers played off some U.S. states when they were selecting a manufacturing plant location. Give us tax breaks or we won't build. Change the local bylaws about noise and let us encroach on agricultural land, or we won't come. The reason the Japanese auto manufacturers are crapping themselves is because they shifted production to Thailand following the earthquake. They did so because their own facilities were damaged and they still cannot get a steady power supply. It's rather hypocritical for these companies to be whining in public when they don''t say a word back in Japan about their own country's inability to recover almosy 8 months after the quake.

I do give credit to Ford for a more intelligent approach. Mind you, the JV with Mazda was located in an area that was outside a flood zone. I guess Ford put some thought into the location of its plant. I would anticipate that Ford will be thrilled if its competitors burn some bridges.The factory, in the Rayong district, has an annual output capacity of 120,000 pickup trucks and 100,000 passenger cars, split evenly between Ford and Mazda. The Japanese located in their usual ghetto like zones and they were the ones that selected Ayuttha which has a long history of flooding. Typical Japanese corporate behaviour. One big company locates there and the rest follow like good little robots.

[toenail]

I have worked and lived in Thailand for over 7 years now. I am guilty of placing the country among "developed" countries because of the first impression...modern highways, flashy offices and hotels, Western shopping and banking. One needs to remember that Thailand is in the "developing" stage (use to be called 3rd world countries). Behavior/ reactions of the government to a crisis like this proved it is not a top- notch country. The only 'top notch" action I saw were the common folks who were helping each other and donating goods and money to the cause. These kind acts are the true backbone of Thailand. Not the government cronies that could only worry about their political party or having their pictures taken giving a free bag of rice to some poor flood victim.

[MEL1]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

Standard corporate negotiating M.O. Scream, stamp your feet, and make a few threats to get attention. It really is no different the way the Japanese car manufacturers played off some U.S. states when they were selecting a manufacturing plant location. Give us tax breaks or we won't build. Change the local bylaws about noise and let us encroach on agricultural land, or we won't come. The reason the Japanese auto manufacturers are crapping themselves is because they shifted production to Thailand following the earthquake. They did so because their own facilities were damaged and they still cannot get a steady power supply. It's rather hypocritical for these companies to be whining in public when they don''t say a word back in Japan about their own country's inability to recover almosy 8 months after the quake.

I do give credit to Ford for a more intelligent approach. Mind you, the JV with Mazda was located in an area that was outside a flood zone. I guess Ford put some thought into the location of its plant. I would anticipate that Ford will be thrilled if its competitors burn some bridges.The factory, in the Rayong district, has an annual output capacity of 120,000 pickup trucks and 100,000 passenger cars, split evenly between Ford and Mazda. The Japanese located in their usual ghetto like zones and they were the ones that selected Ayuttha which has a long history of flooding. Typical Japanese corporate behaviour. One big company locates there and the rest follow like good little robots.

Interesting words, considering Mazda is a Japanese company, with 80% of its manu in Japan, still. Thailand is a small part of Mazda's output, and an even smaller part of Ford's interests.

The Rayong plant was planned and built by the Japanese, with Ford investment to get into the Asian market only.

It's easy to knock the other Japanese manufacturers for investing in Thailand, but what was wrong with their investing in Ayutthaya anyway? There was a willing work force there, and an area that would succeed from Japanese investment. Who could have known about this disaster of a flood? Do you really think Ford influenced Mazda in the area of Rayong, and checked it for floods 60 years ago? I doubt that very much!!

Why would you negate on the other Japanese companies for trying, but support just one other Japanese company because it is attached to Ford in someway?

This topic isn't about bad investment areas, it is about the current possible abstractness of Thai ability to support foreign investments, and the reality of the crisis; and, as I said, nobody who is in the depths of water, and that's a large chunk, gives a dam_n. If there is no work force with current housing, a clean and healthy environment to live in, due care from its own government then NOBODY is going to invest here, and that's anywhere - including precious Rayong!

The abstract reality is that the populus of people who needed severe help didn't get one iota, those who need it now are getting little (from the powers that be, I say), and the future looks bleak for a very long time for the People's needs.

Sort out the abstract is what I say the Govnt should be doing. Abhisit was right! Deal with the needs now, AND THEN deal with what is needed for employment and the future (including flood aversion).

-m.

[Skywalker69]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

I believe that is what the vast majority of educated and worldly Thaivisa members think too! But maybe this is the "wake up call", maybe Thailand now realises that a corrupt society makes it a weak society which in turn provides weak willed (minded?) politicians. I haven't been affected by the floods other than missing out on some eggs or beers but I can empathise with the ordinary people. Yet when I watch the policicians at work I just keep wondering what sort of people get to the top of the tree in Thailand. It's certainly not the best, most able and honest, but what do I know, I'm only a guest in the kingdom paying taxes and jumping through petty hoops for the priviledge.

The ones with enogh money to by wotes!

[scorecard]

There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.

They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.

Standard corporate negotiating M.O. Scream, stamp your feet, and make a few threats to get attention. It really is no different the way the Japanese car manufacturers played off some U.S. states when they were selecting a manufacturing plant location. Give us tax breaks or we won't build. Change the local bylaws about noise and let us encroach on agricultural land, or we won't come. The reason the Japanese auto manufacturers are crapping themselves is because they shifted production to Thailand following the earthquake. They did so because their own facilities were damaged and they still cannot get a steady power supply. It's rather hypocritical for these companies to be whining in public when they don''t say a word back in Japan about their own country's inability to recover almosy 8 months after the quake.

I do give credit to Ford for a more intelligent approach. Mind you, the JV with Mazda was located in an area that was outside a flood zone. I guess Ford put some thought into the location of its plant. I would anticipate that Ford will be thrilled if its competitors burn some bridges.The factory, in the Rayong district, has an annual output capacity of 120,000 pickup trucks and 100,000 passenger cars, split evenly between Ford and Mazda. The Japanese located in their usual ghetto like zones and they were the ones that selected Ayuttha which has a long history of flooding. Typical Japanese corporate behaviour. One big company locates there and the rest follow like good little robots.

Quote from above: "The Japanese located in their usual ghetto like zones and they were the ones that selected Ayuttha which has a long history of flooding. Typical Japanese corporate behaviour. One big company locates there and the rest follow like good little robots."

Please share your source for your statement "...they (the Japanese) were the ones that selected Ayuttha...."

[hellodolly]

<br />

<br />There's a  front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.<br /><br />They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.<br />

<br /><br /><br />Standard corporate  negotiating M.O. Scream, stamp your feet, and  make a few threats to get attention. It really is no different the way the Japanese car manufacturers played off some U.S. states when they were selecting a manufacturing plant location. Give us tax breaks or we won't build.  Change the  local bylaws about noise and let us  encroach  on agricultural land, or we won't come. The reason the Japanese  auto manufacturers are crapping themselves is because they shifted  production to Thailand following the  earthquake. They did so because their own facilities were damaged and they still cannot get a steady power supply.  It's rather hypocritical for these companies to be  whining in public when they don''t say a word back in Japan about their own country's inability to recover almosy 8 months after the quake.<br /><br /><br /> I do give credit to Ford  for  a more intelligent approach. Mind you, the JV with Mazda was located in an area  that was outside a flood zone. I guess  Ford put some thought into the location of its plant.  I would anticipate that Ford will be thrilled if its competitors  burn some bridges.The factory, in the Rayong district, has an annual output capacity of 120,000 pickup trucks and 100,000 passenger cars, split evenly between Ford and Mazda.  The Japanese located in their usual ghetto like zones and they were the ones that selected Ayuttha which has a  long history of flooding.  Typical Japanese corporate behaviour. One big company locates there  and the rest follow like good little robots.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Back in their own country the Japanese are dealing with a completely different animal. They had no time to do any thing. Who builds with the idea that they have to consider a tidal wave. Completely different here in Thailand people are aware of floods and in many cases make bad choices. That is what the Japanese have done here in Thailand in many cases.

The point is not only will the government help them economically but even more important will they do some thing to mitigate the damage if the same situation should arise again?

They are not stupid people they know Thailand's history and how they react to situations. Once they are over it is OK and nothing done to help stop it in the future.

If they were to use Thai Visa as a source of information they would come flocking to Thailand a country willing to sell it's own people down the road if they can gain politically and monetarily from it. Some how I think they are not that gullible. They know the government is a joke and will have to do a lot to placate it's citizens.

One thing the government could do to help the unemployed is start and continue a massive system to help prevent this from happening in the future. That is some thing the Japanese would really take to heart.

[wxyz]

<br />

<br />There's a front-page article in Thai Rath today which says that Japanese businesses are accusing the government of not being 'sincere' in their rehabilitation plans, of giving out false information about the situation, and for lacking clear standards for industrial parks.<br /><br />They are also complaining about general lack of government help especially regarding all those factories in Ayutthaya, where the companies are estimating damage at a billion dollars, with 16,000 people out of work, but no help has boon received for 2 months.<br />

<br /><br /><br />Standard corporate negotiating M.O. Scream, stamp your feet, and make a few threats to get attention. It really is no different the way the Japanese car manufacturers played off some U.S. states when they were selecting a manufacturing plant location. Give us tax breaks or we won't build. Change the local bylaws about noise and let us encroach on agricultural land, or we won't come. The reason the Japanese auto manufacturers are crapping themselves is because they shifted production to Thailand following the earthquake. They did so because their own facilities were damaged and they still cannot get a steady power supply. It's rather hypocritical for these companies to be whining in public when they don''t say a word back in Japan about their own country's inability to recover almosy 8 months after the quake.<br /><br /><br /> I do give credit to Ford for a more intelligent approach. Mind you, the JV with Mazda was located in an area that was outside a flood zone. I guess Ford put some thought into the location of its plant. I would anticipate that Ford will be thrilled if its competitors burn some bridges.The factory, in the Rayong district, has an annual output capacity of 120,000 pickup trucks and 100,000 passenger cars, split evenly between Ford and Mazda. The Japanese located in their usual ghetto like zones and they were the ones that selected Ayuttha which has a long history of flooding. Typical Japanese corporate behaviour. One big company locates there and the rest follow like good little robots.<br />

<br /><br /><br />

Back in their own country the Japanese are dealing with a completely different animal. They had no time to do any thing. Who builds with the idea that they have to consider a tidal wave. Completely different here in Thailand people are aware of floods and in many cases make bad choices. That is what the Japanese have done here in Thailand in many cases.

The point is not only will the government help them economically but even more important will they do some thing to mitigate the damage if the same situation should arise again?

They are not stupid people they know Thailand's history and how they react to situations. Once they are over it is OK and nothing done to help stop it in the future.

If they were to use Thai Visa as a source of information they would come flocking to Thailand a country willing to sell it's own people down the road if they can gain politically and monetarily from it. Some how I think they are not that gullible. They know the government is a joke and will have to do a lot to placate it's citizens.

One thing the government could do to help the unemployed is start and continue a massive system to help prevent this from happening in the future. That is some thing the Japanese would really take to heart.

actually tsunamis are as common in japan as floods are in Thailand, and both countries need to build accordingly