Second Global Financial Crisis Strategy

[fritter1970]

*** Second Global Financial Crisis Strategy ***

- Today -

buy U.S. Dollars

- Phase 1 of crisis -

All asset classes collapse except the U.S. Dollar which appreciates greatly

- Phase 2 of crisis -

After 50 per cent increase in the value of the U.S. dollar against the Aussie dollar purchase gold (which should be selling at a 25 per cent discount)

All asset classes (including gold) then appreciate to original price except the U.S. Dollar which collapses to original price

Net Result: Up to 100 per cent return over a period of a few months

Your thoughts?

[canuckamuck]

Except if it doesn't go like you say.

What if certain assett classes go ballistic and the dollar fails.

[Naam]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

[fritter1970]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

... like developing the ability to make stupid comments?

[rgs2001uk]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

I dont know about that Dr, expensive booze has the same effect on me.

[kennalder]

You should never have let the cat out of the bag. Now everyone knows how the next crisis will unfold. With everyone playing the same strategy, it just won't be the same. Next time learn to keep a secret.. Just in case no-one takes you seriously, can you give me with the exact dates while you are at it? Hey you did ask for thoughts.

[CMSteve]

If there is a truly catastrophic economic collapse, forget about USD and Gold. Think more towards guns and bullets. What will gold be worth if you can't trade it in? Why does it trade at such a premium relative to other metal, its only because people have money to treat it as a luxury good. Otherwise, its just yellow lead.

oh, and lots of cheap booze.....

[lovetotravel]

My, my. How times change. It wasn't long ago the oracles on TV were proclaiming the collapse of the USD. And many were suggesting flight to the Aussie dollar.

[fletchsmile]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

I dont know about that Dr, expensive booze has the same effect on me.

I put it down to the time of day... early/mid afternoon drinking

[impulse]

If there is a truly catastrophic economic collapse, forget about USD and Gold. Think more towards guns and bullets. What will gold be worth if you can't trade it in? Why does it trade at such a premium relative to other metal, its only because people have money to treat it as a luxury good. Otherwise, its just yellow lead.

oh, and lots of cheap booze.....

Agreed. Gold is just like paper money. It's worth something because people say it's worth something, not because it's especially useful. I'd go with antibiotics because people will hand over every ounce of gold they have if they (or someone they love) need antibiotics and you have them. I do agree on the guns and bullets, but mostly to protect my family and my antibiotics.

Oh, and don't forget Viagra to go along with the cheap booze. Guys will pay whatever it costs to get a......

Edited November 14, 2011 by impulse

[Naam]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

I dont know about that Dr, expensive booze has the same effect on me.

i stand corrected

[chainarong]

You must be an economist or a banker, you are gambling my friend, just like all the others , right.

[chainarong]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

I dont know about that Dr, expensive booze has the same effect on me.

i stand corrected

Isn't there a shortage of the brew

[fritter1970]

OK, seems that my idea has attracted some laughter and ridicule.

So I decided to put my money where my mouth is...

Have bought U.S. dollars with Aussie dollars.

Will keep my play updated on here over the coming months as the situation unfolds.

I wonder who will have the last laugh?

[fletchsmile]

OK, seems that my idea has attracted some laughter and ridicule.

So I decided to put my money where my mouth is...

Have bought U.S. dollars with Aussie dollars.

Will keep my play updated on here over the coming months as the situation unfolds.

I wonder who will have the last laugh?

Constructively sell AUD buy USD has a reasonable chance of making a profit in the next few weeks/ months. I reckon there's potential for up to 10% movement there, before it will again drift back to parity and AUD strengthening. That's if your position goes the right way. Good luck with the 50% tho'.

You could always use an ETF for your position. Somewhat ironically "SAD" is one of the tickers - short Aussie long USD, but I doubt you'll get anywhere near 50% on that either

[fletchsmile]

BTW Jersey based ETF "SAU3:PZ" would give you 3 times leverage on the daily change AUD vs USD movements, instead of a "SAD" choice - might get you nearer to 30% upside if the direction goes right.

Really can't see the rest of your "scenario" coming about tho, unless we get into the realms of an infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of type-writers and one producing the works of Shakespeare, or parallel universes like the "Sliders" TV series. So can't suggest much there. But good luck anyway

BTW2 Suggest you also set a stop loss it doesn't work out as planned

[fritter1970]

BTW Jersey based ETF "SAU3:PZ" would give you 3 times leverage on the daily change AUD vs USD movements, instead of a "SAD" choice - might get you nearer to 30% upside if the direction goes right.

Really can't see the rest of your "scenario" coming about tho, unless we get into the realms of an infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of type-writers and one producing the works of Shakespeare, or parallel universes like the "Sliders" TV series. So can't suggest much there. But good luck anyway

BTW2 Suggest you also set a stop loss it doesn't work out as planned

Thanks fletchsmile. Your advice is very much appreciated. I was going to buy the asx etf "USD" but I love the sound of 3 times leverage with "SAU3:PZ".

My confidence in the U.S. dollar increasing 50 per cent against the Aussie dollar is based on it doing so during the first GFC. I actually wonder if this may be a conservative estimate given the expectation that the second GFC is going to be far worse due to it relating to the insolvency of countries and banks instead of just the insolvency of banks in the first GFC.

Is the "SAU3:PZ" ETF traded on the London Stock Exchange?

[fletchsmile]

Yes it's tradeable on LSE. The ticker is just SAU3. Some links:

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/ETPs/company-summary.html?fourWayKey=JE00B3VCN170JEUSDETCS

http://www.trustnetoffshore.com/Factsheets/Factsheet.aspx?fundCode=M0FH8&univ=E

The PZ on the end is just if you want to look at it on Bloomberg, as they add suffixes given all the exchanges they cover

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SAU3:PZ

You need to watch the movements carefully given the leverage. Also bear in mind that 3x daily movements will not necessarily be the same as 3x the movement over a period of time of say a month. Generally if it goes up every day, the effects will compound above 3x. If it's up some days and down others the effects will be below 3x

[waza]

So you predict GFC 2 will occur in the next couple of months?

[Naam]

OK, seems that my idea has attracted some laughter and ridicule.

So I decided to put my money where my mouth is...

Have bought U.S. dollars with Aussie dollars.

Will keep my play updated on here over the coming months as the situation unfolds.

I wonder who will have the last laugh?

hitting <enter> twice after a few words doesn't make forecasts more credible

[fritter1970]

OK, seems that my idea has attracted some laughter and ridicule.

So I decided to put my money where my mouth is...

Have bought U.S. dollars with Aussie dollars.

Will keep my play updated on here over the coming months as the situation unfolds.

I wonder who will have the last laugh?

hitting <enter> twice after a few words doesn't make forecasts more credible

Continually making stupid comments certainly doesn't make you more credible

[fritter1970]

So you predict GFC 2 will occur in the next couple of months?

I think it is very possible given the way the market is savaging Italian government bonds at the moment.

[Naam]

OK, seems that my idea has attracted some laughter and ridicule.

So I decided to put my money where my mouth is...

Have bought U.S. dollars with Aussie dollars.

Will keep my play updated on here over the coming months as the situation unfolds.

I wonder who will have the last laugh?

hitting <enter> twice after a few words doesn't make forecasts more credible

Continually making stupid comments certainly doesn't make you more credible

hitting <enter> four times does?

[rgs2001uk]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

I dont know about that Dr, expensive booze has the same effect on me.

i stand corrected

Now now Dr, no need to be so hasty, there are many who post/talk complete &lt;deleted&gt; even when stone cold sober.

The difficulty is trying to sort the wheat from the chaff, as later posts in this thread prove.

[Naam]

isn't it sad what cheap booze does to some people?

I dont know about that Dr, expensive booze has the same effect on me.

i stand corrected

Now now Dr, no need to be so hasty, there are many who post/talk complete &lt;deleted&gt; even when stone cold sober.

The difficulty is trying to sort the wheat from the chaff, as later posts in this thread prove.

agreed! i withdraw my comment. insulting innocent and honest cheap booze was not justified.

[Naam]

Global Financial Crisis Strategy

here's my two Satangs:

today

-buy Angolan Kwanza

-use a straight forward value 31. april 2012

-hedge Kwanza short Chang / long Singha

-move Boon Rawd Breweries to spot not threatened by floods

-dig canals sloping towards Kamphaeng Phet Brewery

phase 1 of crisis

-instigate military coup in Democratic Republic of Congo

-put marxist Congolose general in power

-spread rumour that Congolese Franc will be devaluated

phase 2 of crisis

-Congolese citizens exchange all Francs against Kwanza

-Kwanza appreciates "greatly" vs. AUD

-buy 17.3 tons of gold (at a discount of 50%) denominated in AUD

-wait till Kwanza collapses

-sell gold and repurchase Kwanza

-pray for floods

result

-take profit and buy Boon Rawd Brewery

-close short Chang long Singha

your thoughts?

[fritter1970]

Global Financial Crisis Strategy

here's my two Satangs:

today

-buy Angolan Kwanza

-use a straight forward value 31. april 2012

-hedge Kwanza short Chang / long Singha

-move Boon Rawd Breweries to spot not threatened by floods

-dig canals sloping towards Kamphaeng Phet Brewery

phase 1 of crisis

-instigate military coup in Democratic Republic of Congo

-put marxist Congolose general in power

-spread rumour that Congolese Franc will be devaluated

phase 2 of crisis

-Congolese citizens exchange all Francs against Kwanza

-Kwanza appreciates "greatly" vs. AUD

-buy 17.3 tons of gold (at a discount of 50%) denominated in AUD

-wait till Kwanza collapses

-sell gold and repurchase Kwanza

-pray for floods

result

-take profit and buy Boon Rawd Brewery

-close short Chang long Singha

your thoughts?

Oh I get it. Your post is supposed to be funny right? Ever thought of being a comedian?

[waza]

Global Financial Crisis Strategy

here's my two Satangs:

today

-buy Angolan Kwanza

-use a straight forward value 31. april 2012

-hedge Kwanza short Chang / long Singha

-move Boon Rawd Breweries to spot not threatened by floods

-dig canals sloping towards Kamphaeng Phet Brewery

phase 1 of crisis

-instigate military coup in Democratic Republic of Congo

-put marxist Congolose general in power

-spread rumour that Congolese Franc will be devaluated

phase 2 of crisis

-Congolese citizens exchange all Francs against Kwanza

-Kwanza appreciates "greatly" vs. AUD

-buy 17.3 tons of gold (at a discount of 50%) denominated in AUD

-wait till Kwanza collapses

-sell gold and repurchase Kwanza

-pray for floods

result

-take profit and buy Boon Rawd Brewery

-close short Chang long Singha

your thoughts?

Oh I get it. Your post is supposed to be funny right? Ever thought of being a comedian?

It made me laugh

[Naam]

Oh I get it. Your post is supposed to be funny right? Ever thought of being a comedian?

i find it boring to trade insults with "learned" forum participants and prefer to ridicule those who call me stupid by simply using the very own rubbish they post. it always works "greatly" when it concerns people with an IQ above 82.5 and if it doesn't work... well... bad luck... for them

[fritter1970]

Oh I get it. Your post is supposed to be funny right? Ever thought of being a comedian?

i find it boring to trade insults with "learned" forum participants and prefer to ridicule those who call me stupid by simply using the very own rubbish they post. it always works "greatly" when it concerns people with an IQ above 82.5 and if it doesn't work... well... bad luck... for them

Not a smart idea to accuse others of having a low IQ in a post written to the standard of a ten year old. Did you smoke crack before you wrote that mumbo jumbo?