webfact Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 ANALYSIS Chalerm holding red and green cards: a bluff or a win Avudh Panananda The Nation Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung has made two curious political moves. On the one hand, Chalerm dropped a bombshell by asserting that a high-ranking police offier was the mastermind in the killing of red-shirt General Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol last May in connection with the political mayhem. He also said the bloodshed at Bon Kai on Rama IV Road and at Soi Rangnam, which preceded the May 19 crackdown at the Ratchaprasong Intersection was attributed to plainclothes police and not soldiers as previously suspected. His remarks completely clashed with the views aired by the red shirts, particularly Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan. In the April censure debate against the Democrat-led government, Jatuporn pinned the blame on the Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situation and the security forces. He and other red MPs said the military establishment put out the contract on Khattiya. The burning question is why Chalerm suddenly appears at odds with his red allies. Although he did not spearhead the censure against the Democrats, he echoed the red views before making an about-turn on Wednesday. He further announced that he would asked Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to grant him a mandate to crackdown on cyberspace offences committed against the monarchy. He outlined his strategy to work with the Army to quell the unroyalist movement. He did not only sideline Information and Communication Technology Minister Anudith Nakornthap, his Pheu Thai ally, but also hinted at strict law enforcement even if he had to uncover culprits linked to the red-shirt movement. The political intrique heightens as Chalerm revealed his two moves following a dinner with Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha. Defence Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapha organised the fence-mending between Chalerm and the military. Last weekend, Chalerm flew to Beijing. He said he did not meet with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Upon his return, he said he encountered a very cold spell in China. A few days later, he orchestrated his make-over with the military. -- The Nation 2011-12-08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedro01 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wouldn't this be an interesting end-game. Thanksin et al side with the army, demonise the red-shirts, get the group broken up in return for being allowed back in & toeing the line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buchholz Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Chalerm has the Samak Syndrome. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oberkommando Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pimay11 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Maybe Chalerm is trying to avoid the possibilities of a coup after the big boss returns by re-establishing strong ties with the army. He certainly has something up his sleeve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MunterHunter Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. The 2012 coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammered Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. Yep the pieces are falling into place. The red shirts give a glimpse of the extreme option. Thaksin talks about how everyone can forgive each other. The April/May thing looks quite dodgy for those who dont want it to be dodgy and they dont fancy the glimpse of what the reds give or the rueters report for that matter. And of course who is the only politician who may be able to control or influence the reds who are a rapidly growing social movement that are starting to build their own head of steam and momentum which also places a time consideration on things. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whybother Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. Yep the pieces are falling into place. The red shirts give a glimpse of the extreme option. Thaksin talks about how everyone can forgive each other. The April/May thing looks quite dodgy for those who dont want it to be dodgy and they dont fancy the glimpse of what the reds give or the rueters report for that matter. And of course who is the only politician who may be able to control or influence the reds who are a rapidly growing social movement that are starting to build their own head of steam and momentum which also places a time consideration on things. Interesting Social movement??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammered Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. Yep the pieces are falling into place. The red shirts give a glimpse of the extreme option. Thaksin talks about how everyone can forgive each other. The April/May thing looks quite dodgy for those who dont want it to be dodgy and they dont fancy the glimpse of what the reds give or the rueters report for that matter. And of course who is the only politician who may be able to control or influence the reds who are a rapidly growing social movement that are starting to build their own head of steam and momentum which also places a time consideration on things. Interesting Social movement??? Err the red shirts camapaign among other things for an end to inequality and betterment for ordinary people. That is a social movement. By the way social movements dont have to be peaceful things and inmost countries becpome non-peaceful if resisted. I am not going to say they are right or wrong but they have a political social agenda that cant be ignored as Thailand develops. They are not just about Thaksin although they clearly see him as their best bet in Thai poltics and as a symbol and thanks to the idiocy of his opponents even one of their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MunterHunter Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Err the red shirts camapaign among other things for an end to inequality and betterment for ordinary people. That is a social movement. By the way social movements dont have to be peaceful things and inmost countries becpome non-peaceful if resisted. I am not going to say they are right or wrong but they have a political social agenda that cant be ignored as Thailand develops. They are not just about Thaksin although they clearly see him as their best bet in Thai poltics and as a symbol and thanks to the idiocy of his opponents even one of their own So they will be in the same position even if he comes back... Welcome the new boss, same as the old boss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrJohnson Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Nobody can govern here without the support of the men in green. Political pragmatism on the part of Chalerm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GentlemanJim Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Some love him, most hate him but you have to hand it to him, Chalerm plays a fine hand of poker. It almost appears that this has been perfectly choreographed. The stage is set to bury Jatuporn and Arisman in jail, as they and their ilk are the main obstacle to this Government staying in power and getting re-elected. Jailing the red 'terrorists' will win the hearts and minds of the educated Thai's who all know that the scumbags should be accountable to the law. With them out of the picture, it completely takes the wind out of the sails of the Dem party. What else to complain about? The reds in the North care not for Jatuporn and Arisman anymore, they have their local leadership all sorted out and judging by the number of reds that showed up to support Arisman it was just his extended family. Now the Army have had the prospect of a huge investigation likely removed and the Senior officers who may have been accountable for any wrong doing are firmly in the pockets of Chalerm and Yingluck. Perhaps a troublesome problematic senior police officer is about to become the sacrificial lamb to the slaughter, killing two birds with one stone. The choreographer must certainly be Thaksin, who is now dropping his henchmen as the worthless pawns that they were. I do not think Thaksin will come back at the moment, he has no wish to be PM, he will bide his time. I cannot stand these fellas but can't help admire their cunningness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammered Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Err the red shirts camapaign among other things for an end to inequality and betterment for ordinary people. That is a social movement. By the way social movements dont have to be peaceful things and inmost countries becpome non-peaceful if resisted. I am not going to say they are right or wrong but they have a political social agenda that cant be ignored as Thailand develops. They are not just about Thaksin although they clearly see him as their best bet in Thai poltics and as a symbol and thanks to the idiocy of his opponents even one of their own So they will be in the same position even if he comes back... Welcome the new boss, same as the old boss Something like that was always likely although they will have a won a few things. Buit if that scenario is reached then it givesw an opportunity for some of the reds to then reposition poltically and we probably get something more akin to poltics and struggle we know in other places. That is probably also better for most people than increasingly violent conflict The reality is that when Thaksin set out he and his allies wanted a bit of what the elite had or maybe even a lot. They worked out that no poltical party had ever tossed bones to the poor who are most of the votes and they knew no poltical party knew how to apply marketing and PR to politics and built a poltical machine that even today looks unbeatable in an election. They didnt likley set out as champions of the oppressed wanting any real radical change but over time went more this way as their aims of inclusion or even a take over at elite old money level were resisted. I would think Thaksin has a lot more in common with the elite than he has with the poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
givenall Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. The 2012 coup? someone has to do something about this incompetent government Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammered Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. The 2012 coup? someone has to do something about this incompetent government The competancy or otherwise of a government is judged by the people at elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaddeus Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. The 2012 coup? someone has to do something about this incompetent government The competancy or otherwise of a government is judged by the people at elections. But this is Thailand, it is more indicative of the competency of the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squigy Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. The 2012 coup? someone has to do something about this incompetent government The competancy or otherwise of a government is judged by the people at elections. But this is Thailand, it is more indicative of the competency of the people. Bang on!!! Ask a Thai to think? Not possible...ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h90 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Chalerm has the Samak Syndrome. . But it worked well for Samak. Reds just want to use Thaksin. Thaksin only want to use the reds. Maybe it is the beginn of the split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h90 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. The 2012 coup? someone has to do something about this incompetent government The competancy or otherwise of a government is judged by the people at elections. Since when do we have fair elections? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buchholz Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Chalerm has the Samak Syndrome. But it worked well for Samak. Reds just want to use Thaksin. Thaksin only want to use the reds. Maybe it is the beginn of the split. Reds will end up like Samak. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whybother Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 On the one hand, Chalerm dropped a bombshell by asserting that a high-ranking police offier was the mastermind in the killing of red-shirt General Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol last May in connection with the political mayhem. The other paper is stating that Chalerm said that he knows who the shooter is, but there isn't enough evidence to proceed. Does that mean that he doesn't want the shooter to have to explain who put him up to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drdoom6996 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 This guy flips sides so often you never know what he is going to say or do next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renaissanc Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Some love him, most hate him but you have to hand it to him, Chalerm plays a fine hand of poker. It almost appears that this has been perfectly choreographed. The stage is set to bury Jatuporn and Arisman in jail, as they and their ilk are the main obstacle to this Government staying in power and getting re-elected. Jailing the red 'terrorists' will win the hearts and minds of the educated Thai's who all know that the scumbags should be accountable to the law. With them out of the picture, it completely takes the wind out of the sails of the Dem party. What else to complain about? The reds in the North care not for Jatuporn and Arisman anymore, they have their local leadership all sorted out and judging by the number of reds that showed up to support Arisman it was just his extended family. Now the Army have had the prospect of a huge investigation likely removed and the Senior officers who may have been accountable for any wrong doing are firmly in the pockets of Chalerm and Yingluck. Perhaps a troublesome problematic senior police officer is about to become the sacrificial lamb to the slaughter, killing two birds with one stone. The choreographer must certainly be Thaksin, who is now dropping his henchmen as the worthless pawns that they were. I do not think Thaksin will come back at the moment, he has no wish to be PM, he will bide his time. I cannot stand these fellas but can't help admire their cunningness. I like your analysis. It's quite possible. Thaksn does like to use people and then "throw them away" like waste paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
khunken Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 On the one hand, Chalerm dropped a bombshell by asserting that a high-ranking police offier was the mastermind in the killing of red-shirt General Khattiya "Seh Daeng" Sawasdipol last May in connection with the political mayhem. The other paper is stating that Chalerm said that he knows who the shooter is, but there isn't enough evidence to proceed. Does that mean that he doesn't want the shooter to have to explain who put him up to it? No criticism of your response, Whybother, but it seems that Chalerm sees all, knows all, & says all. Personally, I think that he is purely a bullshitter & all the recent finger pointing will end up as his exploits have done in the past - a mixture of lies, half truths & the aforementioned BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siripon Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Err the red shirts camapaign among other things for an end to inequality and betterment for ordinary people. That is a social movement. By the way social movements dont have to be peaceful things and inmost countries becpome non-peaceful if resisted. I am not going to say they are right or wrong but they have a political social agenda that cant be ignored as Thailand develops. They are not just about Thaksin although they clearly see him as their best bet in Thai poltics and as a symbol and thanks to the idiocy of his opponents even one of their own So they will be in the same position even if he comes back... Welcome the new boss, same as the old boss Something like that was always likely although they will have a won a few things. Buit if that scenario is reached then it givesw an opportunity for some of the reds to then reposition poltically and we probably get something more akin to poltics and struggle we know in other places. That is probably also better for most people than increasingly violent conflict The reality is that when Thaksin set out he and his allies wanted a bit of what the elite had or maybe even a lot. They worked out that no poltical party had ever tossed bones to the poor who are most of the votes and they knew no poltical party knew how to apply marketing and PR to politics and built a poltical machine that even today looks unbeatable in an election. They didnt likley set out as champions of the oppressed wanting any real radical change but over time went more this way as their aims of inclusion or even a take over at elite old money level were resisted. I would think Thaksin has a lot more in common with the elite than he has with the poor In reference to your last sentence Hammered, you knew this years ago, as does every informed Thai person. Thaksin is out for himself, Chalerm is a willing servant, the rest are mere pawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siripon Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. How many months or years have you been repeating this sentance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhizBang Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Lies, lies and more lies. That is all that comes out of Chalerm's mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tukkytuktuk Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Looks like this Thaksin issue will never go away. If he returns he will upset alot of people and vice versa. I have a 3rd alternative, he may return only if his sister resigns and they call a fresh election with some new people to vote for, with no association to red or yellow shirts and only for the good of Thailand serving its people, the best they can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oberkommando Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Getting ready for the day we all know is coming. How many months or years have you been repeating this sentance? Ever since I knew the day was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briggsy Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Wouldn't this be an interesting end-game. Thanksin et al side with the army, demonise the red-shirts, get the group broken up in return for being allowed back in & toeing the line? If there is anyone who knows about appeasing the military in order to end a period of exile, that person is Chalerm. He has valuable experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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