Amras Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Why do you all think it's ONLY the strength of the baht that keeps your dollar and EU weak? It's NOT. It's the crappy economic situation in the US and the EU which has devalued their currency in comparison, and appearing to strengthen the baht. The Australian dollar is still 32 baht per dollar which is around the highest it has always been. Because at the moment, we aren't in the same situation as the US or the EU, economically, luckily to our natural resources. Again stop blaming Thailand for the crappy exchange rate...blame your own governments back home for the crappy management of their economies, which is the cause of it. My 1 AUD, buys 1.08 US. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutter007 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 If Kittiratt is proposing it there is little doubt that it will probably lead to disaster. For anyone that has heard him speak in public, its obvious that he is not qualified for the position he holds, he's bairly qualified to balance a check book. Even if he was qualified, it's obvious he is only interested in "len gaan muang", and serving the public is about the last thing on his mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suradit69 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 low baht mean cheaper retirement for some A "low baht" (especially coupled with higher wages) would lead to price inflation, particularly for retirees who like foreign branded items or things with imported content, and eventually equillibrium would return. So you'd get more baht for your foreign exchange and pay more baht for your purchases. There might be some benefit in the short run, but it wouldn't be the bonanza some envision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
volk666 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Since this proposed devaluation of the baht has now been published it will not take place in early course, because as a result of this knowledge national and international financial activities will take place in order to reach financial advantages, and that is not to the benefit of the country that intents to devalue its currency. State currency devaluation should be carried out as a sudden surprise and not after publication, nevertheless, the top political elite of the country are of course aware of it in advance and thus are in a position to take the obvious financial devaluation advantages. Even Kittirat can't just order this kind of devaluation. Baht rate is maintained by the Bank of Thailand, they will have to adjust their baht trade to gradually let baht depreciate, if Kittirat twists their arms, that is. They can tell him to get lost or just ignore him or dig their heels. Most likely he'll just back off for the moment but will quietly push his agenda on BOT when opportunity arises. >>> Korn doesn't sound like a "robber baron" privy to the real financial situation but still pulling wool over our eyes. Yesterday The Nation mumbled something about TDRI study that says April 1 minimum wage increase will hit GDP growth this year to the tune of 1.7%. Those are the numbers that the government will never release to the public, they are very busy downplaying inflation figures and impact of rising fuel prices, and every agency raised GDP growth brackets in the past week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllanB Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Why do you all think it's ONLY the strength of the baht that keeps your dollar and EU weak? It's NOT. It's the crappy economic situation in the US and the EU which has devalued their currency in comparison, and appearing to strengthen the baht. The Australian dollar is still 32 baht per dollar which is around the highest it has always been. Because at the moment, we aren't in the same situation as the US or the EU, economically, luckily to our natural resources. Again stop blaming Thailand for the crappy exchange rate...blame your own governments back home for the crappy management of their economies, which is the cause of it. My 1 AUD, buys 1.08 US. Go figure. The reason the western economies are in a mess is because of the money men panicking, it will all pass and they will start throwing it around again soon. Thailand is still a third world country, having a Tesco at the end of your road won't change that The only reason the "diggers" are bucking the trend is the "dirt" they sell to the Chinese, end of story, sorry mate no economic marvel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotary Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I think there is no doubt that B30 to a dollar is expensive, I would think B40 to B42 per US$ is about the correct exchange rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Card Posted March 28, 2012 Popular Post Share Posted March 28, 2012 (edited) The heady days of THB70+ to 1GBP was in the main due to the strength of Sterling and not the weakness of the Baht. Sterling and the USD have both dropped considerably whereas the Baht has only moderately strengthened. Having a weak currency over the past few years is seen as a major advantage and the UK was very happy to see Sterling drop and actively encouraged it. Currencies that have maintain their actual value or even strengthened have been at a disadvantage to currencies that have moved in the opposite direction and exports are a major consideration. Just follow the War of Words between the USA and China of the alledged controlled weakness of the Yuen. Vietnam devalued to assist exports and for no other economic reason. Regarding the opposition and ex Thai Finance Minister saying that a weak Baht would be bad for Thailand, well to coin a well known phrase, "He would say that wouldn't he?". Most opposition parties worldwide just disagrees on principle to any in power governments position and pray that they will not be successful. A moderately weaker Baht would be good for Thailand, helping exports and the inflow of finace and new businesses, providing it is controlled and not too fast. Many Farangs would also see the benefit by way of a salary increase. Good news all around. The 70+ exchange rate 8+ years ago was due to the weakness of the baht - it was the lingering effect of the Asian financial crisis starting in 1997. Since then the Asian countries, including Thailand, have learnt from their mistakes, their economies based on exports have strengthened considerably and inward investment has led to a surge in their currencies. Whether u call it due to relative weakening of western currencies is debateable, but it is certainly a combination of increased Asian exports, tightening of economies and the financial crisis. However, the Thai/western currency exchange rate was increasing before the financial crisis due mainly to strengthening of Thailand's currency. When I first visited Thailand in 1987, the UK pound was about what it is now, actually about 40 to the pound, and it seemed a good deal at the time. So I suspect it is now about right where it should be, especially as it's been around that point for several years now. I also expect the pound and other Western currencies to drop against the baht to about 40/pound over the medium to long term because Thailand's food exports will become increasingly important to the world, leading to increased exports and inward investment. Edited March 28, 2012 by Card 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The heady days of THB70+ to 1GBP was in the main due to the strength of Sterling and not the weakness of the Baht. Sterling and the USD have both dropped considerably whereas the Baht has only moderately strengthened. Having a weak currency over the past few years is seen as a major advantage and the UK was very happy to see Sterling drop and actively encouraged it. Currencies that have maintain their actual value or even strengthened have been at a disadvantage to currencies that have moved in the opposite direction and exports are a major consideration. Just follow the War of Words between the USA and China of the alledged controlled weakness of the Yuen. Vietnam devalued to assist exports and for no other economic reason. Regarding the opposition and ex Thai Finance Minister saying that a weak Baht would be bad for Thailand, well to coin a well known phrase, "He would say that wouldn't he?". Most opposition parties worldwide just disagrees on principle to any in power governments position and pray that they will not be successful. A moderately weaker Baht would be good for Thailand, helping exports and the inflow of finace and new businesses, providing it is controlled and not too fast. Many Farangs would also see the benefit by way of a salary increase. Good news all around. Umm, there was the small issue of the financial crisis that went round Asia at the end of the 90's. Yes the pound was relatively strong, but the thai economy and many others in the region were in a mess. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Thailand has a huge stock of Forex that it has accumulated over the last 5 years or so, in a very grand effort to keep the baht weak. There is a big issue in Thailand with the value of oil imports, which Thailand has to do to fund its economy. Oil is a disproportionately important commodity here because they haven't invested in rail. Bear in mind that many of the businesses in Thailand rely enormously on imported commodities to function, many are simply bolting things together and are not "building" things per se. This means that a weakening of the baht has a very big effect on industry. So yes, I believe the baht is at about the right value, would it make an enormous difference to "us" if the baht went to 33 to the USD? Not really. Would it push up oil and raw material prices even further which would feed throught the economy very quickly, yes. Is the baht likely to collapse, no? They are in a very strong position in terms of forex. Are the majority of exporters i.e. cars/electronics asking for a weaker baht? Not particularly since an enormous amount of the inputs they need would be pushed up in price by devaluing the baht. Until the US and Europe get their fiscal house in order, the value of the baht will hang around more or less where it is. If, these countries don't sort it out, might the baht get stronger? Yes, but the government can always reduce interest rates to stabilise it. Long story short, devaluing the baht isn't as beneficial to the country as many think, and doing so isnt' quite as easy as it appears when the rest of major economies of the world have enormous currency weakness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterdes Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Let it happen - the time of 55 for a euro - i am not mad about it (and I will be not alone ) Probably it can bring more tourists to the country -good for everybody the have a day yet to change :? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves In fact Thailand now stands at 14 Thailand 178,553 Jan 2012[2] 15 France 172,206 Dec 2011[2] 18 United States 149,259 Feb 2012[2] 17 Mexico 149,209 Dec 2011[2] 18 Malaysia 134,080 Jan 2012[2] 19 United Kingdom 123,585 Jan 2012[2] with quite a few large nations just below, so, yes, be happy they didn't spend it all, or the baht would be at 15 to the USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otherstuff1957 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The overall Economic policy of the Yingluck Administration seems to be aimed at increasing inflation (higher wages, higher rice prices, no more fuel fund..). I suppose that this could be accidental, but I suspect that the Shinawat's and their cronies have invested heavily in ways which will allow them to profit from inflation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterdes Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Are they able to do this - the not have to follow the economy worldwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SymS Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Its only the rich that are in a crisis due to a currency devaluation. The poor will always be kept poor . I assume the rich have most of their assets in real estate and company shares, so a currency devaluation would not affect them that much. On the other hand, the poor will have to skip a few more meals, since they will struggle even more to buy necessities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bermuda Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Oh yessss!!!!! Here we go again! Thai Baht to be devalued just like in 1996. Only a handful of Thais benefited from the devaluation of Thai Bath especially the former Prime Minister who was indicted as a criminal and became a fugitive only to be pardoned years later by his own sister acting as his dummy or puppet as a Thai Prime Minister. Devalue the Thai Bath and those crooks and corrupts in Thailand will again become overnight billionaires to support their own sinister plans against Thailand and the Thai people. To devalue the Thai currency to help the Thai exports is pure crap of asshol_e reasons. No country in the world can compete with China when it comes to exporting products. Thailand should focus more in educating the Thai people to become their own bosses rather than become workers in factory. But what the HECK! Thailand is a lost country which is slowly sinking in a deep quicksand. Go ahead and devalue the Thai Bath so we can again plunder your country and exploit the Thai people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tragickingdom Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Korn is a joker. Thee is hardly any chance on a meaningful devaluation. But if it was the case it would be good news for Thailand. It would mean a better export position. But as long as the Americans are printing money and the Europeans are played by the UK and the US who see their own money going down the drain the attention is diverted. From next year on the Dollar and Pound will be devaluated big time, not the Baht. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosco911 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I sincerely hope this happens. Since the Baht value changed from the high 60's some 5 years ago to the current rate export of our machinery manufactured in Thailand has fallen by 80% due to the 30% increase in price. We have had to cut staff levels by 60% and to top that now have the wage hike. Ok some of you will say the wages need to go up and I agree, the problem is with no export how do we pay for it ? Anyone who works in export, tourism or manufacturing will tell you the same. How many more business and people out of work will it take before its done. From a manufacturing point of view this is a good thing and it will most certainly promote tourism / export. The sooner the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I sincerely hope this happens. Since the Baht value changed from the high 60's some 5 years ago to the current rate export of our machinery manufactured in Thailand has fallen by 80% due to the 30% increase in price. We have had to cut staff levels by 60% and to top that now have the wage hike. Ok some of you will say the wages need to go up and I agree, the problem is with no export how do we pay for it ? Anyone who works in export, tourism or manufacturing will tell you the same. How many more business and people out of work will it take before its done. From a manufacturing point of view this is a good thing and it will most certainly promote tourism / export. The sooner the better. Call Cameron, Obama and Wen Jibao. The pound was way overvalued at that point but Mr. Brooon did a very good job of emptying the treasury whilst overseeing the banking industry screwing the pooch. That is it in a nutshell. The GBP, USD and EURO are going to stay weak for a very very long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Singlebarrel Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 One is led to speculate why such comments are being made, perhaps all is not well with the Thai economy due to past and future fiscal matters. I like Gentleman Jim would indeed enjoy those heady days of 70 baht to the pound., No doubt our friends from the colonies would like to see something like 55 baht to the dollar too. That would go a long ways in helping to buy my Condo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnAllan Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Conversely, Mr Korn, the strong THB has negative consequences for Thai exports, including tourism. At some 30 to the USD, 48 to the GBP, etc., and taking account of issues such as the global economy, particularly western, ongoing Thai political turmoil, with the distinct possibility of further unrest - never mind a coup d'état - the likelihood of further flooding and government mismanagement, etc., the baht is - and has been for some time - grossly overvalued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovelomsak Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 It isnot going to happen plain and simple. He is just creating Red Herrings. Thailand needs to keep the baht where it is to keep its trade in Asia.. Donot forget Thailand is making trade agreements with many Asian nations using baht as the currency of choice.Where the baht is now is the desireable place for it to stay. It willnot move in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai at Heart Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Conversely, Mr Korn, the strong THB has negative consequences for Thai exports, including tourism. At some 30 to the USD, 48 to the GBP, etc., and taking account of issues such as the global economy, particularly western, ongoing Thai political turmoil, with the distinct possibility of further unrest - never mind a coup d'état - the likelihood of further flooding and government mismanagement, etc., the baht is - and has been for some time - grossly overvalued. Last year despite all the floods, exports were up 17%. http://thailand.prd.go.th/view_inside.php?id=6111 Obviously the market begs to differ with your view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
how241 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 They talk as if they can control the "Float" of the Thai baht. I don't think so as there are many outside factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigJohnnyBKK Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 He pointed out that the Finance Ministry has no jurisdiction over the movement of the Thai baht or capital flow. In fact, both monetary and exchange rate policies fall under the Bank of Thailand's control. Finance Ministry might not have the authority to control baht exchange rate but Kittirat is an authority to himself. The true fact is that no government fully participating in the global economy has the ability to do more than nudge their currency's value up or down in the short term, and then only in the direction the market's willing to go anyway. Against a medium to long term trend no agency has any power, except by manipulating their credit markets, and even that depends on the government's credibility to repay - and has other macro consequences domestically. Facts like these are hard for Thais to accept, and they just won't acknowledge publicly, they like to think their government has the ability to control not just currency, but commodity prices, and it's just a pipe dream as long as they want to participate in globalized markets, it's international trade as a whole, AKA "the market" that sets prices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amras Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Why do you all think it's ONLY the strength of the baht that keeps your dollar and EU weak? It's NOT. It's the crappy economic situation in the US and the EU which has devalued their currency in comparison, and appearing to strengthen the baht. The Australian dollar is still 32 baht per dollar which is around the highest it has always been. Because at the moment, we aren't in the same situation as the US or the EU, economically, luckily to our natural resources. Again stop blaming Thailand for the crappy exchange rate...blame your own governments back home for the crappy management of their economies, which is the cause of it. My 1 AUD, buys 1.08 US. Go figure. The reason the western economies are in a mess is because of the money men panicking, it will all pass and they will start throwing it around again soon. Thailand is still a third world country, having a Tesco at the end of your road won't change that The only reason the "diggers" are bucking the trend is the "dirt" they sell to the Chinese, end of story, sorry mate no economic marvel. Yes, I said that. That's why Australia has avoided the current (for now) the situation in the EU and the US. But then we also aren't spending billions fighting 3 different wars (like the US is) and the EU was bound to have this effect when it's member nations start collapsing and other countries try come in to help...the current EU decline was foreseen by many to happen before it did. As to the US, it's because of the huge national debt, the increase in borrowing from the reserve bank and it's spending on war, which is costing billion's of dollars. The US is in so much debt, it's going to take them a long time to reverse where they are going, there is no easy way out. Australia's position is delicate but even if China's demand for iron ore goes down (as it is slowly now) worldwide demand is still increasing. "Rio has mapped out plans to lift annual production of iron ore in Australia to 283 million tonnes in 2013 from 225 million now by digging new mines and expanding existing ones. Rio Tinto Chief Executive Tom Albanese told the company's annual meeting last month it would stage expansion work with market conditions. Global iron ore demand is set to double to around 3.5 billion tonnes a year by 2030, with Chinese appetite for ore material continuing to drive the market, albeit at a slower pace, according to Perth-based Intierra Resource Intelligence." source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/20/us-bhp-ironore-idUSBRE82J02K20120320 Regardless of WHY Australia is not falling the victim is unimportant, they have still managed to avoid it...for how long, who knows but the above suggests only when we run out of iron ore to sell, the point is they have. It's not Thailands fault, the US is worth pittance now, same for the EU. If Thailand was Artificially inflating it's value, than comparatively it would be worth more compared to all currencies, no? But this is not the fact, it's only those who's economies are in trouble compared to that of a few years ago. Those whose are also steady have similar exchange rates Ie the yen, sng, aud, all to thb fairly consistent over the last 2-3 years. Whereas the US dollar has only dropped since 2009 and the EUR took a big hit in 2010 and since then jumping all around the place. It's the economic instability of those regions that is having a big effect. EUR will probably be out of it, before the US is....I think that's easy to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DGS1244 Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Please , Please devalue the Baht then I can get back to a reasonable life style and be 'happy' pensioner again. At present it is way overvalued when you compare it with other countries and their financial status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daviddrinkell Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 The exchange rate was about 90 to 1 British Pound when I bought a motorbike in January 1998. Thailand was amazing value in those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amras Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 I sincerely hope this happens. Since the Baht value changed from the high 60's some 5 years ago to the current rate export of our machinery manufactured in Thailand has fallen by 80% due to the 30% increase in price. We have had to cut staff levels by 60% and to top that now have the wage hike. Ok some of you will say the wages need to go up and I agree, the problem is with no export how do we pay for it ? Anyone who works in export, tourism or manufacturing will tell you the same. How many more business and people out of work will it take before its done. From a manufacturing point of view this is a good thing and it will most certainly promote tourism / export. The sooner the better. Call Cameron, Obama and Wen Jibao. The pound was way overvalued at that point but Mr. Brooon did a very good job of emptying the treasury whilst overseeing the banking industry screwing the pooch. That is it in a nutshell. The GBP, USD and EURO are going to stay weak for a very very long time Agreed. The bankers have urterly screwed the EU and the US (but I am sure the bankers profited from it) and the spending in the US on the war isn't helping them. There is no quick fix in either case and it will be a long time before it will change. What has happened benefited someone substantially and it is the bankers who are sitting there with a big smile on their faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amras Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Please , Please devalue the Baht then I can get back to a reasonable life style and be 'happy' pensioner again. At present it is way overvalued when you compare it with other countries and their financial status. What financial status.?..the current US debt of $15 trillion??!!! (http://www.usdebtclock.org/) Compared to Thailand's lowly $160 or so billion. The UK's debt is now also into the single digit Trillions of dollars and compare it's size to the US. Italy's public debt is also into the trillions. I can't imagine what the current debt of the whole of the EU is. Thailand's financial situation is much more stable then the US and the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daviddrinkell Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 UK public sector net debt in February 2012 was £988.7 billion, equivalent to 63.0% per cent of GDP- (note this excludes financial sector intervention.) Source: Office National Statistics publications[1] (page updated March 20th, 2012) If all financial sector intervention is included (e.g. Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds), the Net debt was £2311.6 billion (147.3 per cent of GDP. This is known as the unadjusted measure of public sector net debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harryfrompattaya Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Baht devaluation sure would help "my" economy that starts off by being paid in dollars. I believe this is throw us off the Baht shall get stronger and they do not want to share this information with the masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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