Thai Expert Warns Of Another Quake In Andaman Region

[finnomick1]

Thailand might have countries around it that have earthquakes but the Thai landmass itself is almost seismically dead. So why would a Thai "expert" on seismology be very good? Kind of like a Saudi Arabian expert on glaciers, a Mongolian expert on oceanography or a Nigerian expert on ethics. Maybe I should wait another 24-hours before I post this though.

...or even an ' expert ' on experts

[anterian]

I accept that but my point is we are talking about geological timescales where events are measured not in minutes and hours but in decades and centuries.

I remember after the 2004 quake that triggered the tsunami there was a lot of talk about a similar fault of the coast of USA that is 'due' for a big slip. When the experts said 'due' they meant anytime in the next fifty years and even that is a guess.

If you are diagnosed with untreatable cancer, with a life expectancy of about 3 months, do you call the doctor a failure because he cannot name the day and minute?

We are dealing with probabilities, just like someone playing the stock market, if you are good at dealing with probability, you get rich. A stock market expert is someone who has tracked probabilities over many years and is right more often than he is wrong.

If you were told there was a 10% probability you would be killed tomorrow in a traffic accident, I doubt if you would worry much, If however it was a 90% probability you would possibly stay at home. This is called risk assessment, we all do it. If an expert gives you an expert opinion, you simply run it through your personal risk assessment mechanism, you decide what to do.

So if an expert gives you an opinion, don't deride it, just say "Thank you, I will take it under consideration".

Please read my post again. I did not say that I don't listen to the 'experts' I did say that the timescales involved in geological events are a lot longer than any of the events you mention.

A simple question. How accurate, as in on what timescale, are current predictions of seismic events ? Days, weeks, months, years, decades, centuries ?

Assuming this is a genuine question, I think it depends much upon location, some areas of the world are much better studied than others and more records and data exists. All predictions are based on probabilities using all the known data. A century prediction is probably close to 100%, a decade perhaps 60% to 80%, a year perhaps 50%, it is really your choice as to which level of probability will get you worried.

There is an old saying, "the only things certain in life are death and taxes".

This might interest you:- http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.html

[animatic]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron

Whenever there is a quake rooted in the [Earth's] mantle, a following quake will be likely in the next few days," said Professor Thanawat Jaruphongsakul, a senior seismologist at Chulalongkorn University.

"a following earthquake will be LIKELY"??? I think the word POSSIBLE is more wise than likely!

i don't ever remember a 2nd earthquake after the 2004 tsunami... nor do I remember 2nd earthquakes after other such disasters. I can only find maybe 2 examples of this in 15 major earthquakes.

which leads on the the first quote: OXYMORON!! Thai Expert!!

Well every aftershock IS a following earthquake.

But in geologic time this discrete earthquake is still a following earthquake to the 2004,

same place, but a different type because the first had released it's face to face pressure

and this one was more lateral slide, like the Anterian finger on table analogy.

But none the less a follow on earthqake to 2004, caused by similar geologic forces in the same area.

It is also harder to monitor and predict because it is underwater and so monitoring devices are not easily placed or calibrated. Lasers work underwater, but not in the same ways and not for the same distances.

Water temperature changes can cause an 'apparent Doppler shift' that would give false readings etc.

A real change, but not because the distances changed.

This particular fault is particularly difficult to predict for, compared to land bassed faults.

Edited April 14, 2012 by animatic

[animatic]

With absolute certaonty another tsunami like 2004 will happen again. I know coz it happened before. Could be tomorrow. Could be on 50 years or a millenium.

Does this make me an expert.

Reasonably informed fits.

[Mosha]

After the 2004 quake it was reported only the southern part of the fault had triggered that quake. The nothern part was said to be possibly under stress, and could pop at any time. Of course that geologically speaking means in the next 20 years. Look at Google Earth. There are a lot of sizeable quakes on that fault. especially around Sumatra. A lot of hot springs around here, so not so seismically dead. Link shows the active fault lines in Thailand

http://twitpic.com/4d9ito

Edited April 14, 2012 by Mosha

[Thai at Heart]

After the 2004 quake it was reported only the southern part of the fault had triggered that quake. The nothern part was said to be possibly under stress, and could pop at any time. Of course that geologically speaking means in the next 20 years. Look at Google Earth. There are a lot of sizeable quakes on that fault. especially around Sumatra. A lot of hot springs around here, so not so seismically dead. Link shows the active fault lines in Thailand

http://twitpic.com/4d9ito

so where were the experts pre 2004?.. Why hadnt they stood up and planned for the issue of a tsunami in the coastal region such as Phuket?

As though they dont teach about tsunamis in high school.

[cup-O-coffee]

I guess I won't criticize him if he simply said it, and someone else picked up on it, and he ended up getting pushed into the limelight. On the other hand, if he went public of his own free will to get this in the news, then I hope he's right for his own credibility's sake, and at the same time I hope he's wrong for a lot of innocent people's sakes.

There are a lot of things said in Thailand, by Thais, that get put into the public limelight, that are better off left unsaid.

Thailand is a hub for this kind of thing.

His statement is more coherent and based on science than the Science Minster's statements by far...

though that IS a low bar to pass.

Understood, but is it necessary to be made public?

What I mean is, he is either being a maverick and stepping out ahead of his "esteemed" community colleagues and making headlines with this news, or he was overheard making this statement and it was put into the public eye without his knowledge and/or approval.

The article reads as if this man were some sort of "special" person, when in fact I am knowledgeable in the fact that even his peers know these things as well as he does, and yet we do not read their opinions on this matter at the same time.

It is as if he is the only one who has this knowledge and none of the other scientists have this knowledge, and even if they do, they do not care - almost as if this Thai scientist is more concerned than the others in this field.

To me this lends a bit of insincerity and boastfulness to the matter, and perhaps adds a bit of insult to his colleagues were they to read this.

[maidu]

What's next? Predicting an earthquake in Japan?, in California? ....wow, I'm impressed.

This coming from a man who hails from a culture steeped deeply in hocus pocus beliefs, including ghosts everywhere.

Before the Boxer Day tsunami of 2004, perhaps 1 out of a million Thais even knew the word 'tsunami.'

Where were the 'experts' then?

Here's a prediction: a volcano will erupt in Indonesia. Anyone want to bet money it won't happen?

[animatic]

I guess I won't criticize him if he simply said it, and someone else picked up on it, and he ended up getting pushed into the limelight. On the other hand, if he went public of his own free will to get this in the news, then I hope he's right for his own credibility's sake, and at the same time I hope he's wrong for a lot of innocent people's sakes.

There are a lot of things said in Thailand, by Thais, that get put into the public limelight, that are better off left unsaid.

Thailand is a hub for this kind of thing.

His statement is more coherent and based on science than the Science Minster's statements by far...

though that IS a low bar to pass.

Understood, but is it necessary to be made public?

What I mean is, he is either being a maverick and stepping out ahead of his "esteemed" community colleagues and making headlines with this news, or he was overheard making this statement and it was put into the public eye without his knowledge and/or approval.

The article reads as if this man were some sort of "special" person, when in fact I am knowledgeable in the fact that even his peers know these things as well as he does, and yet we do not read their opinions on this matter at the same time.

It is as if he is the only one who has this knowledge and none of the other scientists have this knowledge, and even if they do, they do not care - almost as if this Thai scientist is more concerned than the others in this field.

To me this lends a bit of insincerity and boastfulness to the matter, and perhaps adds a bit of insult to his colleagues were they to read this.

I

t says he got info from a friend at NASA the day before the recent one.

He then made a public statement putting this new info together with what just happened.

We know the political minister in charge of science is not swift,

but Thai kids do win some science fairs etc, it's not a total waste land.

This individual was willing to speak out in a land where most

will worry about losing face and say nothing,

soooo, I am happy to see him speak out regardless of risk of face.

[animatic]

What's next? Predicting an earthquake in Japan?, in California? ....wow, I'm impressed.

This coming from a man who hails from a culture steeped deeply in hocus pocus beliefs, including ghosts everywhere.

Before the Boxer Day tsunami of 2004, perhaps 1 out of a million Thais even knew the word 'tsunami.'

Where were the 'experts' then?

Here's a prediction: a volcano will erupt in Indonesia. Anyone want to bet money it won't happen?

Amongst thousands of charlatans and millions of believers on hocus-pocus,

at least there's one actual scientist willing to speak, based on currently understood data.

Better to speak now and endure the brickbats,

than not to speak and feel one or more lives were lost by your silence.

Edited April 14, 2012 by animatic

[jerrysteve]

Given the fact that the area is subject to quakes to begin with, the old adage rings true..."being forewaned is being forearmed." It is always better to have some preventitive measures in place with respect to your personal safety and that of your family.

There isn't too much anyone can do to prevent these types of disasters, but one can certainly be somewhat prepared for any "fallout" should there

be a quake of any magnitude. It is pure common sense which seems to be somewhat lacking in this day and age. "Be Prepaired" is the Boy Scout Motto; not a bad motto to always keep in mine. It may sound corny but still wise advice.

[cgphuket]

"Thai expert"...Bahwahaaa!!! . Sorry, that term just struck me as very funny...

[geriatrickid]

What's next? Predicting an earthquake in Japan?, in California? ....wow, I'm impressed.

This coming from a man who hails from a culture steeped deeply in hocus pocus beliefs, including ghosts everywhere.

Before the Boxer Day tsunami of 2004, perhaps 1 out of a million Thais even knew the word 'tsunami.'

Where were the 'experts' then?

Here's a prediction: a volcano will erupt in Indonesia. Anyone want to bet money it won't happen?

I am saddened by your comments as you have not taken the time to go and read the actual statement. There is no hocus pocus in the gentleman's comment. He offered his assessment based upon the information he had and reviewed. Do you know who he is or what his background is? He is with the Research Unit for Disaster and Land information studies-Chulalongkorn University

This is the same unit that proposed the super floodway to manage the risk of Bangkok flooding. Dr Thanawat was the lead on that report. It's his job to assess risk. He is no slouch and has good standing amongst his peers.

[Thai at Heart]

The issue is really you cant be an expert of seismology and flood prevention. Too diverse, and maybe he can fix my car too

[ayayay]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

TiT (Thaivisa is Thaivisa), full of thaibashers

[ayayay]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

TiT (Thaivisa is Thaivisa), full of thaibashers

[vijer]

That's right mock the gentleman. Only Farangs know.

As is reported. The Sendai quake had a similiar scenario. What's wrong with being prudent?

No, foreigners just have the mentality to question and analyze, Thai's only have the mentality to keep doing everything the same way they have always done them but act as if they have great knowledge on any subject. This is why foreigners mock the idea of "Thai expert". I had a house built recently, no consistent use of electrical wire, one outlet has blue and gray wires, one has black and gray, one has orange and red, and some have two different gauges of wire. Yep real experts. In the States to become an electrician you have to go to school for a year or more and then apprentice with a licensed electrician for several years before you get your license. In Thailand if you do the job once and say you know how to do it you are qualified.

A huge sink hole developed on a major soi in BKK and about 50 Thai "road engineering experts" (THAT IS A SERIOUS OXYMORON) showed up to peer into the hole. After careful analysis and consulting with each other (about 30 minutes of squawking) they decided the likely cause was the last construction company that worked on the road. Case closed. No need to examine your engineering practices or look around the world to see if anyone developed better technology, nope we are Thai and we know what we know and we are not going to learn anything more than what we already know. Stupid foreigners think you know better.

[vijer]

"Why did Wednesday's quakes emerge just eight years afterwards? This is new to most seismologists and geologists, who are unfamiliar with quakes with depth rooting to the mantle layer," he said.

Yes yes "just eight years after" now we know that we can mark our calendars for 8 years from now because this is the new pattern the Thai expert divined from consulting with the head monk at his favorite wat. Just like all the goofballs that said the earth was going to be destroyed in 2012. So a third of 2012 has come and gone and nothing drastic has happened so lets change the date to 20 December 2012, maybe that is when catastrophe will strike. Or maybe 22, 23, 24 no no no, my wegie board said it would be 27 1/2 December 2012 at 13:13.

[animatic]

Funny how each of the last few days has had one aftershock earthquake since the last big one. As things settle into a new temporary stability, each after shock IS an earthquake in it's own right. And the other ones like the Burma one are settlings along the fault laterally from the epicenter.

Can you be an expert in more than one thing?

Well a seismologist must also understand;

Geography, but above and subterranean and sub-oceanic.

Fluid dynamics of magma, and other fluids, pressures and escape paths.

Geology of the earths make-up and how various substances react to pressures.

So he is more likely to completely understand flooding principles than most people.

Edited April 15, 2012 by animatic

[ayayay]

No, foreigners just have the mentality to question and analyze, Thai's only have the mentality to keep doing everything the same way they have always done them but act as if they have great knowledge on any subject.

.

A huge sink hole developed on a major soi in BKK and about 50 Thai "road engineering experts" (THAT IS A SERIOUS OXYMORON)

You are a great thai basher

[jeffcool]

ThaiVisa the Hub of experts on every subject known to Man.......

And even on subject Unknown to Man.....

[jeffcool]

Thai expert...sounds like an oxymoron....anyway, pretty good guess. Quakes of that magnitude are often followed by many days or weeks of after shocks.

TiT (Thaivisa is Thaivisa), full of thaibashers

Agree it is an easy target but they are asking for it..... Self inflicted.....