Sterling To Stengthen This Year

[w11guy]

The pound is shit, end of story.

The pound is strengthening against many currencies at the moment, so in no way can it be considered shit. You are way off the mark. Or maybe just a troll.

Edited May 1, 2012 by w11guy

[chiang mai]

The pound is shit, end of story.

The pound is strengthening against many currencies at the moment, so in no way can it be considered shit. You are way off the mark. Or maybe just a troll.

He's not far off the mark, see post 28.

[cmsally]

Probably a bit effected by the French elections. People looking for a safer haven; waiting to see if the poison dwarf will ultimately drown in the hollandaise sauce. His speech today backed by the Eiffel Tower was enough to make you want to throw up. No wonder my friends in France this evening are knocking back the wine, muttering "at least it isn't as bad as Spain".

[thaimate]

_{well its a little stronger today ,lets hope it can go higher ,and cameron does what the people want ,a referendum on europe}

[chiang mai]

Like I said, Sterling's at the top of it's game right now and set to fall:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2140008/Sterling-poised-lose-value-trading-highest-levels-years.html

[phutoie2]

Like I said, Sterling's at the top of it's game right now and set to fall:

http://www.dailymail...vels-years.html

Disagree!, I prefer this view: -

"

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

Read more:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2140008/Sterling-poised-lose-value-trading-highest-levels-years.html#ixzz1u2amDR2r

[chiang mai]

Like I said, Sterling's at the top of it's game right now and set to fall:

http://www.dailymail...vels-years.html

Disagree!, I prefer this view: -

"

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

Read more:

http://www.dailymail...l#ixzz1u2amDR2r

Indeed it is still quite cheap against EUR but that's not the issue. the issue is whether it will rise further or will it become even cheaper, I guess the latter, unless someone can point me at the change in GBP fundamentals that have made it stronger.

Edited May 5, 2012 by chiang mai

[Darrel]

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

I'm not aware that the EUR ever got much over 1.6 to the GBP; it certainly didn't in the last 10 years.

This display of financial acumen might explain why the RBS share price dropped in value by 95% in the space of 2 years. Bankers.

[chiang mai]

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

I'm not aware that the EUR ever got much over 1.6 to the GBP; it certainly didn't in the last 10 years.

This display of financial acumen might explain why the RBS share price dropped in value by 95% in the space of 2 years. Bankers.

Phutoie2 must have read and re-read that article several times in order to identify and extract the two lines at the end that are GBP positive whereas the remaining 99% of it are extremely bearish. I reckon P2 must be the worlds leading optomist.

[letitbe]

The pound is shit, end of story.

The pound is strengthening against many currencies at the moment, so in no way can it be considered shit. You are way off the mark. Or maybe just a troll.

The pound is shit, end of story.

The pound is strengthening against many currencies at the moment, so in no way can it be considered shit. You are way off the mark. Or maybe just a troll.

sorry to tell you but gbp is shit us$ is shit euro is shit all have devalued against real money gold by around 80% over last year and if you want to measure by inflation late 60's in UK a policeman just for first time got 1000 gbp a year (a year) and that could give a reasonable standard of living and now for same standard of living IMO you need at least 30,000 gbp a year so by that measure the great GBP has fallen by around 97% as has most other fiat money.

[letitbe]

sorry to tell you but gbp is shit us$ is shit euro is shit all have devalued against real money gold by around 80% over last year and if you want to measure by inflation late 60's in UK a policeman just for first time got 1000 gbp a year (a year) and that could give a reasonable standard of living and now for same standard of living IMO you need at least 30,000 gbp a year so by that measure the great GBP has fallen by around 97% as has most other fiat money.

correction 80% over last 10 years against real money gold but still 97% down in real terms over last 45 years or so

[Naam]

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

I'm not aware that the EUR ever got much over 1.6 to the GBP; it certainly didn't in the last 10 years.

This display of financial acumen might explain why the RBS share price dropped in value by 95% in the space of 2 years. Bankers.

when the Dollar soared in 2000 there was a time when GBP/EUR went several times beyond 1.70 (peak was 1.74) and then stayed for more than 2 years most of the time above 1.60

[cmsally]

http://www.economy-news.co.uk/exchange-rates/1368-forex-forecasts

Let's see what happens when it hits 0.8

We're almost there. Although long term is predicted as a rise for the pound.

Meantime a little profit taking is always good.

[Darrel]

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

I'm not aware that the EUR ever got much over 1.6 to the GBP; it certainly didn't in the last 10 years.

This display of financial acumen might explain why the RBS share price dropped in value by 95% in the space of 2 years. Bankers.

when the Dollar soared in 2000 there was a time when GBP/EUR went several times beyond 1.70 (peak was 1.74) and then stayed for more than 2 years most of the time above 1.60

So that would be more than 10 years then, as I said. In the last 10 years 1.6 was the maximum and much of the time it was below 1.5 (and of course much below that since the crash).

He could have gone back a few more decades for his comparison but that wouldnt have been a relevant reference to what's happening today either.

[Mosha]

If the pound is shit, the Euro is a terminal case. More bail outs to come. How long will the Germans put up with it?

[apetley]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

based on the mighty British Empire. RULE BRITANNIA!

And there was me thinking Klingons had zero sense of humour.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[exeter]

Like I said, Sterling's at the top of it's game right now and set to fall:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2140008/Sterling-poised-lose-value-trading-highest-levels-years.html

It is not always wise to use anything that the Daily Mail prints, their researchers are not the best and often dont bother to check the content after its written or the source before hand!

[exeter]

If the pound is shit, the Euro is a terminal case. More bail outs to come. How long will the Germans put up with it?

In for a penny in for a pound! Difficult for them to stop, if they did Europe would collapse and its the UK's biggest trading partner, best to hope for an orderly slimming down and exits if we are lucky. Why did they not see the problems!

[Mosha]

If the pound is shit, the Euro is a terminal case. More bail outs to come. How long will the Germans put up with it?

In for a penny in for a pound! Difficult for them to stop, if they did Europe would collapse and its the UK's biggest trading partner, best to hope for an orderly slimming down and exits if we are lucky. Why did they not see the problems!

Created for the wrong reasons. All countries joining should have had the same rules, retirement ages etc. Too many recipient countries and not enough contributing nations.

[Naam]

If the pound is shit, the Euro is a terminal case. More bail outs to come. How long will the Germans put up with it?

In for a penny in for a pound! Difficult for them to stop, if they did Europe would collapse and its the UK's biggest trading partner, best to hope for an orderly slimming down and exits if we are lucky. Why did they not see the problems!

Created for the wrong reasons. All countries joining should have had the same rules, retirement ages etc. Too many recipient countries and not enough contributing nations.

the Greatest Nation on Earth™ has 50 states using one single currency. sales taxes, income taxes and variety of laws, rules and regulations vary considerably. some states are buckling with accumulated debt, others are managing just fine.

claim dismissed!

next.

[TommoPhysicist]

The Germans will stay in for as long as they see a chance of conquering the rest of Europe (by stealth).

As for the pound, most people in this thread were claiming it would never see 50 again just last year, so the current exchange rate must be a temporary 'blip'

[Asiantravel]

" even though the British economy is not wonderfull ,the consensus seems to be that the pound is not a bad bet and should strengthen a bit this year"

but based on what economic fundamentals?

An element of fiscal discipline, seen elsewhere on the planet only in Germany would be my guess. Markets quite like the coalition`s resolve and the general sign-up by the public (or is it resignation?).

well in that case someone should tell George Osborne to keep quiet

George Osborne: UK has run out of money

The Government 'has run out of money' and cannot afford debt-fuelled tax cuts or extra spending, George Osborne has admitted.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9107485/George-Osborne-UK-has-run-out-of-money.html

[mommysboy]

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

I'm not aware that the EUR ever got much over 1.6 to the GBP; it certainly didn't in the last 10 years.

This display of financial acumen might explain why the RBS share price dropped in value by 95% in the space of 2 years. Bankers.

Phutoie2 must have read and re-read that article several times in order to identify and extract the two lines at the end that are GBP positive whereas the remaining 99% of it are extremely bearish. I reckon P2 must be the worlds leading optomist.

Deja vu! CM, about 3-4 years ago I had to tell you it is all relative and here we are again- they are all in the cart, pound, dollar, euro, uncle Tom Cobley n all.

1.60 dollar to the pound, is a normal trading range for the pound, and the euro is in fact higher than normal although there isn't really enough history to say what normal is.

If there is one currency set to hit the skids, I'd say it is the euro, since3 a devaluation must happen to make Euroland competitive. Thus it is not so much a matter of logic as imperative.

Guesswork though I must admit.

[Naam]

If there is one currency set to hit the skids, I'd say it is the euro, since3 a devaluation must happen to make Euroland competitive. Thus it is not so much a matter of logic as imperative.

if EURoland was not competitive why was Germany for years the biggest exporter, lost the title temporarily to China, but will most probably be champion again this year. what will weaker EUR help Greece. to sell some more olives and ouzo? Greek prices for a nation who's economy is based on tourism are already quite low.

a weaker EUR achieves nothing as far as debt reduction is concerned. spending more than the incoming revenues is the problem!

[Naam]

But Ross Walker, economist with Royal Bank of Scotland, said: ‘When you look at where we were before the credit crunch – at $2 for example and more than 1.70 euros – then you could argue that the pound is still quite cheap."

I'm not aware that the EUR ever got much over 1.6 to the GBP; it certainly didn't in the last 10 years.

This display of financial acumen might explain why the RBS share price dropped in value by 95% in the space of 2 years. Bankers.

when the Dollar soared in 2000 there was a time when GBP/EUR went several times beyond 1.70 (peak was 1.74) and then stayed for more than 2 years most of the time above 1.60

So that would be more than 10 years then, as I said. In the last 10 years 1.6 was the maximum and much of the time it was below 1.5 (and of course much below that since the crash).

He could have gone back a few more decades for his comparison but that wouldnt have been a relevant reference to what's happening today either.

you are off by only 8 days Darrel. on may 14, 2002 the Pound was still slightly above 1.60 (1.6058)

[mommysboy]

If there is one currency set to hit the skids, I'd say it is the euro, since3 a devaluation must happen to make Euroland competitive. Thus it is not so much a matter of logic as imperative.

if EURoland was not competitive why was Germany for years the biggest exporter, lost the title temporarily to China, but will most probably be champion again this year. what will weaker EUR help Greece. to sell some more olives and ouzo? Greek prices for a nation who's economy is based on tourism are already quite low.

a weaker EUR achieves nothing as far as debt reduction is concerned. spending more than the incoming revenues is the problem!

I really don't know naam but for the sake of debate can I submit the following:

Just going on what I understand from the rags and crystel set, it seems to me Euroland needs everything and faster than is happening now!

Germany is renowned for quality, I guess what it produces does not need to be so price driven and indeed is in a sound fiscal position. But to stand any chance of growing the PIGS in particular need a lower Euro, and ideally some kind of stimulus such as QE, as well as debt restructuring at low interest rates. This is the main problem, what is good for Germany isn't good for the others in the main, and contrariwise.

I suppose the nearest example of what needs to happen in a troubled economy is the UK, which both devalued and embarked on QE, and through good fortune and nothing else is obtaining a form of debt refinancing at cheap intyerest rates. Then of course moderate inflation helps. Even this has left the patient still barely breathing. One shudders to think what will happen to Greece.

I await re-education with some trepidation!

[midas]

i cant see how a currency can be expected to strenghthen when economic conditions keep deteriorating ?

Unemployment keeps rising across UK

"Family budgets are being squeezed between the pressures of rising unemployment, low earnings growth and stubbornly high inflation."

http://www.presstv.i..._medium=twitter

Edited May 8, 2012 by midas

[Naam]

If there is one currency set to hit the skids, I'd say it is the euro, since3 a devaluation must happen to make Euroland competitive. Thus it is not so much a matter of logic as imperative.

if EURoland was not competitive why was Germany for years the biggest exporter, lost the title temporarily to China, but will most probably be champion again this year. what will weaker EUR help Greece. to sell some more olives and ouzo? Greek prices for a nation who's economy is based on tourism are already quite low.

a weaker EUR achieves nothing as far as debt reduction is concerned. spending more than the incoming revenues is the problem!

I really don't know naam but for the sake of debate can I submit the following:

Just going on what I understand from the rags and crystel set, it seems to me Euroland needs everything and faster than is happening now!

Germany is renowned for quality, I guess what it produces does not need to be so price driven and indeed is in a sound fiscal position. But to stand any chance of growing the PIGS in particular need a lower Euro, and ideally some kind of stimulus such as QE, as well as debt restructuring at low interest rates. This is the main problem, what is good for Germany isn't good for the others in the main, and contrariwise.

I suppose the nearest example of what needs to happen in a troubled economy is the UK, which both devalued and embarked on QE, and through good fortune and nothing else is obtaining a form of debt refinancing at cheap intyerest rates. Then of course moderate inflation helps. Even this has left the patient still barely breathing. One shudders to think what will happen to Greece.

I await re-education with some trepidation!

it seems to me Euroland needs everything and faster than is happening now!

i partly agree but reject the one-size-fits-all expression Euroland. some countries of the European Union are indeed in deep shit dire straits, respectively between a rock and a hard place. these countries are Greece, Portugal and Spain. their problem is extremely high unemployment, lack of industry and lack to educate/train the lion share of it's unemployed inhabitants. all three countries have dilly-dallied around for years before adopting the common currency and moved from dilly-dallying to dolce vita by creating a mountain of debt.

that accumulation of debt was possible because loans, mortgages and credit in general was suddenly freely available at comparatively low interest rates which Panos Papadopoulus, Juan Garcia and João Pereira de Souza found much more appealing than the former 15% for Drachmas, Pesetas and Escudos.

the only solution, neither fast nor cheap, is for these countries to establish viable industries and train those who have no qualifications by introducing a system that works in UK and Central Europe since centuries, namely apprenticeships in the whole range of "trades". needless to say that this cannot be accomplished in a few years and most probably not in one single decade.

[nong38]

The Greeks have so far failed to form a Govt, they have 9 days before a 2nd election is called. They have to choices when they do, either accept the terms agreed and funded by Germany or leave the Euro. My guess is they will leave the Euro, short term problem for the Euro one of the bigggest problems it has will have gone and in a few years ( short term) the Euro might then have put its house in order.

In the meantime, markets have the jitters and will continue to until something concrete happens.

So what of the Euro? It will continue to go down until something concrete happens or appears to be happening as the dollar is also appearing to be weakening there are not to many places you might want to put your money, sterling looks to be the obvious first option but the UK Govt wont like that it will hurt exports, on the other hand it will help imports so expect this to be to difficult for the UK to resolve.

I expect sterling to rise very very slowly, something might happen tomorrow to change that of course because predicting the future is just that and no matter what facts, charts or whatever are thrown into the arena, nobody knows everything and what is correct today might be incorrect tomorrow.

[23962323]

The Euro has been Germany's best friend.The work ethic of Germany and other northern European nations is totally different to southern Europeans. When the euro goes bust and it will,the D Mark will strengthen to a degree that will make Germany uncompetitive,All in Germany's favour mat the moment to keep a weak currency for manufacturing and exports,it will be in deeper than deep trouble when it resorts to the Mark again,