harpman88 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 buy gold stocks, i did 6 months ago and i'm currently up 40% Which means absolutely nothing in terms of what may lie ahead. US markets set to dive, lets see if i am good Is that your prediction or do you have any reliable sources for the U.S. market to dive? There are no "reliable sources" in predicting what short term moves in ANY (commodity,equity,whatever)market will be. If there were,everyone would know what that trend would be IN ADVANCE and act accordingly.Dont let anyone fool you into thinking otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveDaBlues Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 If you can survive on an exchangle rate of 40-41 baht to the dollar but not 35 then you shouldn't be here to start with.......you're dancing on too fine a rope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyne pride Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 buy gold stocks, i did 6 months ago and i'm currently up 40% Which means absolutely nothing in terms of what may lie ahead. US markets set to dive, lets see if i am good Is that your prediction or do you have any reliable sources for the U.S. market to dive? There are no "reliable sources" in predicting what short term moves in ANY (commodity,equity,whatever)market will be. If there were,everyone would know what that trend would be IN ADVANCE and act accordingly.Dont let anyone fool you into thinking otherwise. You are 100% correct there,if anyone really knew they would be in to the derivatives market leveraged up to the hilt and make a fortune,and keeping quiet about it.For the believers in experts it is all down to who you believe has the best crystal ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Currencies are volatile relative to each other, but gold just keeps on strengthening. The best guess why is that the cool heads are increasing the percentage of their portfolios that they hold in gold, as they feel that things might go pear-shaped in the industrialised countries. A big loss in confidence in the US$ would have big repercussions for all except self-sufficient farming families. I don't spend much of my time watching the markets, just use any spare cash to buy gold and more rice fields. The old maxim is "Buy low, never sell" for those. It makes for more peace of mind. I think Thailand is one of the most fundamentally secure countries. The Westernised economies could collapse and all it would mean for Thailand is that all the workers from its factories and stores would have to go back to live with their rural cousins and increase the amount of food grown proportionately. But there is enough land to do it. The vast areas under sugarcane (60% of which goes to soft drinks) can be turned to rice at little cost if there is plenty of labour available. The fundamental needs are food, shelter, warmth and fun. Thailand's rural areas have them in plenty for the present rural population, and can provide them for a lot of people displaced from employment in the exporting industries, and their supporting service activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
massein Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 If this trend continues my dreams of retiring in Thailand, sipping Mai Tais on the beach and chasing young Thai girls may all go up in smoke. I was just kidding, life will remain good.in the 5 years i have lived in thailand the has gone up and dow by 8 or 9 points. but by ling in the villege i affected very little. just remenber good are just about the same price but services is where you capitalize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendix Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 To say that currencies fluctuate wildly while Gold keeps rising is nonsense. Wasnt gold up to more than US$800 in the early and mid 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cclub75 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 I like your way of thinking. Indeed, we can assume that Thailand could be better protected than western countries if a big "crash" occures. Currencies are volatile relative to each other, but gold just keeps on strengthening.The best guess why is that the cool heads are increasing the percentage of their portfolios that they hold in gold, as they feel that things might go pear-shaped in the industrialised countries. A big loss in confidence in the US$ would have big repercussions for all except self-sufficient farming families. I don't spend much of my time watching the markets, just use any spare cash to buy gold and more rice fields. The old maxim is "Buy low, never sell" for those. It makes for more peace of mind. I think Thailand is one of the most fundamentally secure countries. The Westernised economies could collapse and all it would mean for Thailand is that all the workers from its factories and stores would have to go back to live with their rural cousins and increase the amount of food grown proportionately. But there is enough land to do it. The vast areas under sugarcane (60% of which goes to soft drinks) can be turned to rice at little cost if there is plenty of labour available. The fundamental needs are food, shelter, warmth and fun. Thailand's rural areas have them in plenty for the present rural population, and can provide them for a lot of people displaced from employment in the exporting industries, and their supporting service activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan in Isaan Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 (edited) ...Correct me if i'm wrong, this seem to be part of a yearly trend. I recall the same margin about 1 year ago. but if i'm wrong, the good life will soom be over for this humble retiree Just from the trends, I don't think you are wrong. This has happened for the past three years - every year about this time, just before we make a small transfer, US to Thai. Again, we will get about about 5% less baht. Don't worry about your retirement. The dollar will cycle back to 40 or 41 in a few months. Bryan Edited January 10, 2006 by Bryan in Isaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noel Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 US markets set to dive, lets see if i am good What about the thai market? Any reason to worry? No, unless of course you have any money 'invested'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Harpman read it and weep Nasdaq -0.6% man am i good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gumballl Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 Harpman read it and weep Nasdaq -0.6% man am i good This is nonsense. The Nasdaq has risen every day for the last 6 days. Only today it is slightly off as investors cash out their stocks to lock in their gains of the past week. This is typical behavior. In the long term, if the selling continues, then you can say you were "right"... but for now, your prediction is only that... a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Baht likely to reach 38 to dollar in 1st quarter, says banker BANGKOK: -- The baht is likely to appreciate to 38 to the US dollar in the first quarter of this year because investors in the United States have shifted funds to invest in stock markets in Asia and weighed more investment in Thailand, according to a veteran banker. Prasong Uthaisaengchai, Senior Executive Vice President of Bangkok Bank Plc, said the US investors had sold dollars heavily and brought the money to invest in stock markets with more attractive returns since the US Federal Reserve signaled an end to an interest hike following continued upward adjustment for up to 18 times. Most investors had paid much attention to investing Asian stock markets, resulting in all regional currencies including Thai baht strengthening. He said the baht had rapidly appreciated since early this year because foreign investors brought a lot of funds to invest in the Stock Exchange of Thailand. They viewed stock prices in Thailand are lower than those in other Asian markets. The price/earning ratio of SET now stays at 8-9 times while a P/E ratio of stock markets in neighboring countries average 13-14 times. The baht is very likely to strengthen to 38 to the US dollar in the first quarter of this year because the currency has rapidly appreciated since early this year. The baht used to appreciate to that level in the past,’’ he said. With the strengthening of the baht, Mr. Prasong said, the country’s international reserve had increased to around US$54-55 billion baht. He said the Bank of Thailand had a duty to supervise the baht to ensure it stays at an appropriate level. --TNA 2005-01-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
george Posted January 10, 2006 Author Share Posted January 10, 2006 Related news: CAPITAL INFLOWS: Overseas investors buying up Thai stocks Foreign players helping push local and regional markets higher BANGKOK: -- A massive foreign buying spree in the Thai stock market will continue for another week, says Michael Spencer, Deutsche Bank’s managing director and head of its Global Markets Research Asia-Pacific unit. The Thai stock market has rallied about 8 per cent since the beginning of this year, thanks mainly to a spending spree by foreign investors. Last week alone, net inflow from foreign investors in the stock market marked a historic high of Bt38 billion in a move that analysts believe was sparked by a series of interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. However, the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) believes that the trend will come to an end in the coming months. Earlier, Asia Plus Securities Plc CEO Kongkiat Opaswongkarn forecast that capital inflow in the Thai bourse would last until Chinese New Year, which falls on January 29 this year. The capital inflow entering the stock market can be attributed to foreigners’ optimism in the Thai economy, which was hurt by a spate of negative factors last year but should improve. He said government mega-infrastructure investment would boost Thai economic growth in the second half of this year. Deutsche Bank predicts that the MPC will increase the 14-day repurchase rate by 75 basis points from 4 per cent and forecast the rate to peak at 4.75 per cent mid-year. The Fed will also raise its benchmark rate to 5 per cent by mid-year, from 4.25 per cent currently. “However, we suspect that by the end of next year, the central bank could possibly start to reverse these hikes, or at least investors will start to anticipate it. We forecast headline inflation to dip to about 3 per cent by the end of next year,” said Spencer. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) is bullish about the Thai economy and estimates growth at 5.2 per cent this year before slowing down to 4.2 per cent next year. Both government and private investment are expected to be key to economic growth this year. Thailand’s current-account deficit will increase from US$3.5 billion (Bt139 billion) last year to $5.2 billion this year, representing 2.8 per cent of the country’s GDP, due to government and private investment. Deutsche Bank prefers the Thai and Chinese stock markets, however. Mark Jolley, Deutsche Bank’s director and head of strategy at its Global Equities Asia business unit, said the Thai stock market lagged behind others in Asia last year. BOT deputy governor Bandid Nijathaworn said the MPC was closely watching inflation and expected it to peak in either last year’s fourth quarter or this year’s first. “Adjustment in the Thai economy is almost over. Negative factors are alleviated, so the economy should return to normal. The prevailing concern is inflation,” he said. He said he expected inflationary pressure to remain for a while and hinted that the MPC was likely to increase the key rate in its upcoming meeting. -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 >>>What about the thai market? Any reason to worry? i dont trade the SET, sorry, i should though for tax reasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 >>>>This is nonsense. The Nasdaq has risen every day for the last 6 days. Only today it is slightly off as investors cash out their stocks to lock in their gains of the past week. This is typical behavior. In the long term, if the selling continues, then you can say you were "right"... but for now, your prediction is only that... a prediction yes and ewave has had me long those days and short the last week of dec. / and it could of went up today again easily. wheres the rule that the market has to go down after 6 days and not 7 , 8 or 12?????????? Dont be all jealous alright. i dont look more than 2-3 days ahead, i'll put tomoros prediction here in a bit. Twaves.net made 8 daytrading point today, $4000 nam Q's max pain is 41.0 for OEX, something to think about Toto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaigene2 Posted January 10, 2006 Share Posted January 10, 2006 My predictions are similar to Nam Kao.. Markets usually dive in first quarter, but I don;t go along with others who talk about five year trends or ten year trends. They are meaningless at the end of a 20 year bull run.. I believe we are heading for the dive..but then again who would have predicted 11,000? There may be a little steam left. But as someone else mentioned, look at all the trouble the US is facing: higher oil prices, biggest debt and yearly deficits in history, and all this in a nation that has negative savings and now faces the highest personal debt ratio in history..oh yeah, and the pension plan is falling apart as the first of the boomers reach retirement age. Surely no one can say that glass is anything but empty.. The dollar will continue to depreciate I agree as people continue to have a bad feeling about the US future. The SET will see some gains but is unstable and open to manipulation..with few or no controls on insider trading (remember the market here is made by just a few dozen rich families). Once the US stops buying cheaper Asian goods, markets here will collapse. I don't believe this 'new Asian domestic demand theory' for a minute..it's driven on exports to developed markets mainly the US..and when that source of income into the local economy dries up, construction will stop, Central will find itself with too many upmarket foreign partners (Waitrose, etc), the Bangkok Starbucks will start to close, the Thais taking foreign vacations will disappear back into the family homes in Suk and Paholyothin, and their kids will go to University here. With the notable excpetion of the Asian financial crisis in 97, most farang are too young to remember a down cycle in the economy and so base things on unsustainable optimism. Whew..that's a good way to start my monring..where's me coffee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Ewave says up tomollow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pascharay Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 The Treasury dept head JohN snow announced last week that he is looking for the Congress to lift the debt ceiling on the budget because as of feb. the US governement won't have money to pay its bills. This shortfall of course occurs naturally in a robust economy after you enacted a defacto 10% devaluation of the dollar to boost the stock market through 2005 for foreign investor to take up the slack of cautious US finanncial instituitions nd ship your manufacturing base overseas to China. Voodoo economics or tent revival free market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harpman88 Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 Harpman read it and weep Nasdaq -0.6% man am i good This is nonsense. The Nasdaq has risen every day for the last 6 days. Only today it is slightly off as investors cash out their stocks to lock in their gains of the past week. This is typical behavior. In the long term, if the selling continues, then you can say you were "right"... but for now, your prediction is only that... a prediction. Thats' right Gumball,"Long term" is the key,to me that's at least 7 years (or longer) My portfolio is currently about 55% stocks,and 45%bonds/cash and this mix has done very well for me over the years.( Before retirement,I added more to the stock side when they were doing badly, ( or when ther're relatively cheap, in other words)and took profits and moved that to cash /bonds during the good stock return years. People (fools) who try to predict short term market moves are NOT investors, they're gamblers. Its all about patience,understanding your risk tolerance,and developing an asset allocation best suited to ones individual needs. To Nam Kao,A whopping 0.6 %! Boy, you ARE good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tyne pride Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 To say that currencies fluctuate wildly while Gold keeps rising is nonsense.Wasnt gold up to more than US$800 in the early and mid 80s? Gold hit around around $850 in 79 or 80 and is now at a 25 year high,which means you can buy it now for exactly the same price as 25 years ago,no income produced over those years,storage costs of 1 or 2% every year for those 25 years.Why would anyone operate a buy and hold strategy.if you buy good income producing common stocks then you WILL make money on a buy and hold as profit and dividend payouts rise,to make money on gold you need to sell otherwise you have money sitting there doing nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (NasdaqNM:QQQQ) Delayed quote data Last Trade: 43.14 Trade Time: 11:44AM ET Change: 0.26 (0.61%) Hey Harpman, read it and weep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usatrader Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (NasdaqNM:QQQQ) Delayed quote data Last Trade: 43.14 Trade Time: 11:44AM ET Change: 0.26 (0.61%) Hey Harpman, read it and weep 5 Yr Look See- pre 9/11 2001 - $43+ -Oct 2002 low $20 52 week Low- 34.35 High -43.27 2:58 EST Nasdq -2332.78 3Pm EST 52 week Lo -1750.82 Hi - 2332.78 Dow - 11042.64 52 week Lo- 10,000.46 Hi- 11,042.64 When surfing, it is the apex of the wave's momentum that must be read to correctly presume ones next move or adjustment to it. 52 week highs and breakouts from trended support and resistence bolinger bans is either the beginning of a coming apex, the apex and or the desent from the apex. Hey! Two quotes come mind if I may: Depend on the rabbit's foot if you will, but remember it didn't work for the rabbit. When ability exceeds ambition, or ambition exceeds ability, the likelihood of success is limited. Good surfing! A bird in hand, is the bird of profit and a bird in the tree is not anything but a bird in the tree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 11, 2006 Share Posted January 11, 2006 tomoro prediction up, i am staying out though, will DT only why? max pain is at 41 and getting close to OEX. let the games begin These crooks drool when these see Harpman types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marshbags Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 The wife said T******n stated on the Thai news last night that 39was to strong and wanted it back to 40-41baht to the dollar. 11-01-2006 18.45 time The reason he gave was no one outside Thailand would want to come here to do business if it was to strong. Doesn,t he look old and haggard now by the way, has anyone else noticed Times running out for him me thinks.................................... marshbags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nam Kao Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 i am itching to short tomoro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 (edited) The wife said T******n stated on the Thai news last night that 39was to strong and wanted it back to 40-41baht to the dollar. 11-01-2006 18.45 timeThe reason he gave was no one outside Thailand would want to come here to do business if it was to strong. marshbags Sure, he's right....easier to sell shares (for him) he probably know a few things more than 'ordinary' people... LaoPo Edited January 12, 2006 by LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dr_Pat_Pong Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 The wife said T******n stated on the Thai news last night that 39was to strong and wanted it back to 40-41baht to the dollar. 11-01-2006 18.45 timeThe reason he gave was no one outside Thailand would want to come here to do business if it was to strong. Doesn,t he look old and haggard now by the way, has anyone else noticed Times running out for him me thinks.................................... marshbags One can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovenman Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 The wife said T******n stated on the Thai news last night that 39was to strong and wanted it back to 40-41baht to the dollar. 11-01-2006 18.45 timeThe reason he gave was no one outside Thailand would want to come here to do business if it was to strong. Perhaps Mr. Big is learning to listen to others. The last time this upturn in the baht occurred, he was strutting like the cock-of-the-walk talking about how the baht was heading towards thirty to the dollar. The financial and business community was aghast. A strengthening currency is not what one generally looks for in an exports-driven economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard10365 Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Anyone want to predict how low the dollar will drop against the baht? I'm not an expert in this area but I do enjoy reading the comments of those of you who are (or think you are). I can survive on anything above 30 baht to the dollar. Anything less than that and I don't qualify for my montly income requirements for the extension of my visa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chownah Posted January 12, 2006 Share Posted January 12, 2006 Anyone want to predict how low the dollar will drop against the baht? I'm not an expert in this area but I do enjoy reading the comments of those of you who are (or think you are). I can survive on anything above 30 baht to the dollar. Anything less than that and I don't qualify for my montly income requirements for the extension of my visa. If you are from most any of the major world powers (US, Britain, France etc.) then you probably don't need a visa....I don't have a visa and haven't had one for about 6 years....I just go to the border every 30 days and get a new entry card......of course I live fairly close to the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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