CONSTITUTION COURT

Pheu Thai break-up would deal a blow to GDP growth: Study

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Economic growth could be restricted drastically to 4-4.5 per cent this year, from an earlier projection of 5.6-5.8 per cent, if the Constitution Court rules today to dissolve the Pheu Thai Party, leading to political turmoil, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

In the best-case scenario, gross domestic product will grow by 5-5.5 per cent this year if the court hands down a moderate ruling focusing on certain aspects of the charter-change bill, the UTCC said in a new study.

"Even a verdict that allows some flexibility in charter amendment would lead to some activity by the red- and yellow-shirt camps, as the problem will not be resolved easily," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre.

He said the economy faced two main challenges: domestic political instability and the euro-zone crunch. However, the internal political conflict is having a bigger impact on national growth, as it could lead to a change in government, Thanavath said.

Under the UTCC's worst-case scenario, GDP would grow by only 4-4.5 per cent if Pheu Thai were dissolved. If this happened, red-shirt protests would erupt, the Stock Exchange of Thailand would fall and consumer and investor confidence would be shattered by the rising political conflict, he predicted.

"The Thai economy would be undermined as investment and tourism would go into a 'wait-and-see' mode. The euro-zone financial crunch would also dampen domestic growth," he said.

Alternatively, if the court dismissed the case, GDP would grow by 5 per cent this year, as concerns about political conflict would decline. However, political protests by the yellow-shirt People Alliance for Democracy would be expected.

Thanavath said the political conflict and the European crisis would continue to damage the country's growth throughout next year.

According to the UTCC's analysis, political factors have the biggest influence on the Kingdom's growth, followed by the slowing global economy, concerns about another flood crisis, and fluctuating oil prices.

A 1-percentage-point decline in GDP growth represents a loss of about Bt100 billion to the Thai economy.

-- The Nation 2012-07-13

I guess the good news is that there will no change since the GDP estimation is always off by 1 to 1.5 pints

Edited July 13, 201213 yr by givenall

These GDP forecasts seem to have a short shelf life. At least the PM seems to have been fairly consistent

2012-03-07

In a speech from the PM at seminar in Tokyo visiting Japan it was said GDP to increase by 5.5 - 6.5%

2012-05-31

PM Yingluck projects 2012 Thai economy to grow 5.5-6.5%, inflation 3.5-4% despite world economic downturn /MCOT

I can think of a few politicians who might be quite happy for PTP to be disolved as it would be an ideal opportunity to turn the clock back and re-establish the TRT party again given that all its executives have just returned from their enforced holiday.

So wouldn't it be in the PTP's & countries best interests if they dropped the internal personal politics that they are pursuing at the moment & concentrated on actually running the country as so called elected leaders.

Or is this latest "doom & gloom" forecast from the Thai chamber of commerce just another thinly veiled dig at the judiciary system to coerce it into a favourable outcome.

Thai politicians sometimes forget that in this day & age of technology the whole world is privy to what is going on, it's about time whoever is in charge or opposition put aside their personal gains & actually started to take care of Thailand & it's people who for too long now have suffered at the hands of it's so called benefactors.

So wouldn't it be in the PTP's & countries best interests if they dropped the internal personal politics that they are pursuing at the moment & concentrated on actually running the country as so called elected leaders.

Or is this latest "doom & gloom" forecast from the Thai chamber of commerce just another thinly veiled dig at the judiciary system to coerce it into a favourable outcome.

Thai politicians sometimes forget that in this day & age of technology the whole world is privy to what is going on, it's about time whoever is in charge or opposition put aside their personal gains & actually started to take care of Thailand & it's people who for too long now have suffered at the hands of it's so called benefactors.

By the way, does anybody know what time today the court is due to announce it's verdict?

So wouldn't it be in the PTP's & countries best interests if they dropped the internal personal politics that they are pursuing at the moment & concentrated on actually running the country as so called elected leaders.

Or is this latest "doom & gloom" forecast from the Thai chamber of commerce just another thinly veiled dig at the judiciary system to coerce it into a favourable outcome.

Thai politicians sometimes forget that in this day & age of technology the whole world is privy to what is going on, it's about time whoever is in charge or opposition put aside their personal gains & actually started to take care of Thailand & it's people who for too long now have suffered at the hands of it's so called benefactors.

By the way, does anybody know what time today the court is due to announce it's verdict?

it's scheduled for 2pm

From OP:

"Even a verdict that allows some flexibility in charter amendment would lead to some activity by the red- and yellow-shirt camps, as the problem will not be resolved easily," said Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the UTCC's Economic and Business Forecasting Centre.

This is micro-analysing the problem of course. The fact is that PTP's decision to make the 'unity bills' project their main policy-drive of the first year, has had negative effects on productivity, investor confidence and has caused great concern internationally. None of the knock-on factors from PTP's mono-policy platform are positive factors for GDP.

As has been said before, PM Yingluck arrived with a solid-gold 'good-will ticket', first woman PM & loved by the working-class, she had a window of opportunity in this first year to make a serious positive start towards making Thailand truly worthy of its amazing miracle tag.

When she came to office she could have worked tirelessly in parliament, avoiding the whole Thaksin/reconciliation minefield entirely, and instead concentrated on relentlessly pushing through bills to overhaul Thai total-infrastructure and to battle corruption root-and-branch. That would have had significant positive effects on lifestyle, equality, productivity, GDP, investor confidence, and finally assuaged the international community who regard the whole red/yellow thing as a ticking bomb. That did not happen and that is the reason GDP is not looking overly positive. The constitution-court ruling / PTP breakup subject is a pure academic micro-analysis and a wholly redundant study when taken in the context of the last twelve failed months.

Edited July 13, 201213 yr by Yunla

So wouldn't it be in the PTP's & countries best interests if they dropped the internal personal politics that they are pursuing at the moment & concentrated on actually running the country as so called elected leaders.

Or is this latest "doom & gloom" forecast from the Thai chamber of commerce just another thinly veiled dig at the judiciary system to coerce it into a favourable outcome.

Thai politicians sometimes forget that in this day & age of technology the whole world is privy to what is going on, it's about time whoever is in charge or opposition put aside their personal gains & actually started to take care of Thailand & it's people who for too long now have suffered at the hands of it's so called benefactors.

By the way, does anybody know what time today the court is due to announce it's verdict?

it's scheduled for 2pm

The verdict will also be carried live on TV at 2pm...probably on various popular/main Thai channels.

Gloom and doom for Thailand all there neighbours must be jumping for joy maybe as a falang it is time to move on to a country that will allow us to invest with no strings attached. Thailand will become the 3rd world country of Asia with the poor getting poorer and those Thai's with money placing there wealth in neibouring countries. I for one hope the court will see sense but there again this is amazing Thailand !!!!!!!!

My guess would be the decrease in GDP would result from the decreasing debt burdon required to feed the blatant corruption of the PTP

Gloom and doom for Thailand all there neighbours must be jumping for joy maybe as a falang it is time to move on to a country that will allow us to invest with no strings attached. Thailand will become the 3rd world country of Asia with the poor getting poorer and those Thai's with money placing there wealth in neibouring countries. I for one hope the court will see sense but there again this is amazing Thailand !!!!!!!!

Which of the neighbours would be better?

Myanmar, Lao, Cambodia?

Malaysia yes, but they also have some political problems and big religious problems.

My guess would be the decrease in GDP would result from the decreasing debt burdon required to feed the blatant corruption of the PTP

When the Shinawatra and cronies go shopping than it increases the GDP.

There is already panic in Siam Paragon.....

All the forecast of dume is being spun by the press and politicians. There will be no problem, if the PTP and the Red shirts assept the law, but if they follow the instructions of big brother and assept anarchy, than we will have an economic and tourist problem. The majortiy of the problems are coused by greed. It makes no difference which political party you follow. It is all greed.

The judges have affrimed with his mjesty the King. that they will uphold the law.

If the any one does anything against the ruling, than it would be like Manchester City telling the line judge, if you rule agains me we will kill you.

Thailand is the land of reincarnation and nowhere is that more true than political parties set up by T. PTP would simply come back under yet another guise. Anyone care to hazard a guess on the next name?

Politics= poly means many, tics means parasites,many parasites, same shit different country.