Urea Price Model

[Jmcbride]

Hello there,

I'm attempting to build a Urea 46-0-0 50kg sack price forecasting model.

I believe Thailand mainly imports Urea (Granular or Prilled ?) from China where the spot price is currently around 2,095 RMB / Metric Tonne

Alongside the RMB Urea spot price & the THB/RMB FX rate, the main inputs needed are the time taken to transport the Urea from China to Thailand & process it. It should then be possible to observe how lagged sack prices change with the FX'd spot price. With this data it should then be possible to forecast sack prices in X weeks time.

With some forecasting of Corn, Oil & FX rates, one can forecast further into the future, albeit with a greater margin of error, but hopefully at least know the direction.

Any insights on transportation & processing times would be very much appreciated

Best Regards

Jim