Thai Govt Clueless On How To Deal With South

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE

Govt clueless on how to deal with South

Avudh Panananda

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The strife-torn Southern provinces have always been an enigma in the modern history of Thailand and will likely remain a serious security threat for decades to come.

The security prognosis is grim because the Yingluck Shinawatra government appears clueless on how to rein in the insurgency.

Every time a bomb goes off, the government reacts with a fire-fighter mentality by trying to put out a fire until the public's attention moves on to other news. Since the resumption of violence in 2004, the insurgents seem to have become more and more sophisticated in their attacks, while the authorities have been busy trying to figure out the violence instead of quelling it.

The security in the four Southern border provinces is not going to improve and may become worse unless the government comes to terms with five crucial factors.

_ Stop feeding false expectations about peace.

The government leaders are sending the wrong signal by casting the ongoing insurgency as a temporary abnormality. For almost a century, the region has been mired in violence with occasional brief interludes of peace.

Before the authorities can engage the insurgents in talks on disarmament, peace is elusive and a realistic goal is to contain the violence.

_ Act on a political solution instead of talking about it.

If there is going to be a glimmer of hope for lasting peace, then the government must convince the insurgents to lay down their arms. In the history of modern warfare, there is no success story of crushing an insurgency movement by military means.

Politicians in the pro-Thaksin camp should have no difficulty contacting the insurgents, even thoughseveral insurgent leaders have actually turned their backs on allies of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Figures like Spa-ing Baso and Masae Useng were prominent in local politics and worked in cahoots with Thaksin's allies before leading the insurgency.

_ PM Yingluck must opt for civilian measures instead of depending on the military.

Make no mistake about it, soldiers are patriots doing their best to keep the country from being torn asunder. But they are trained to map out and implement a military strategy, which has nothing to do with rooting out the cause fuelling the insurgency.

To her credit, Yingluck stalled for almost a year before endorsing the military-initiated restructure in dealing with the strife-torn region. But she had to cave in after the surge of violence last month simply because she had no alternative at hand.

Although the prime minister had slightly modified the original proposal, the formation of the steering committee led by Deputy Prime Minister Yuthasak Sasiprapha still implied that the military would be lurking in the shadows to influence all measures pertaining to the region.

The steering committee is a political body, but its work is being ruined by the military-dominated Internal Security Operation Command.

_ Restructuring has proven futile.

When he was in power, Thaksin implemented dozens of restructuring plans involving soldiers, police and civilians, but all his efforts were in vain. Yingluck should have learned from her brother's experience.

The government should think hard on how to deal with the insurgency instead of toying with the bureaucracy, which will only lead to treacherous fighting among the bureaucrats.

_ Start to reduce the military presence and let the locals work to ensure their security.

The soldiers should be deployed as a short-term measure to check the surge of violence. But the long-term presence of the military could adversely become fodder for the insurgency. The government should emulate the counterinsurgency experiences of the United Kingdom and China.

-- The Nation 2012-08-17

[sunshine51]

Note to the Yingluck Shinawatra Government....

Please make mandatory reading for all staff the

following book....

Defeating Communist Insurgency.

Author...Sir Robert Thompson.

Publishers....Chatto & Windus, London

1966

When dealing with either a Communist Insurgency

or an Islamic Insurgency the tactics used to

defeat the insurgents are the SAME.

Please be aware that the Malayan "Emergency"

was the only Communist Insurgency to be defeated.

This book tells how said insurgency was defeated.

There is no quick fix...however...with boots on the

ground, patience and talks between the beligerants

the insurgency will cease.

This short, easy to read and comprehend book

is still available today.

By all means do not follow the policy the US

had in Vietnam...not one single military officer

of O-7 rank (General) and above ever read this

book. Had they done so...perhaps things would

have worked out better.

[fareastguy]

Government is clueless on how to deal with anything !!!!

[chainarong]

i am totally devastated with these statements, one only has to seek the wisdom of brother Thaksin, to know what to do , he did such a great work and he made long lasting friendships , he was a roll model for many, in which the rest of the world could only stand in amazement and say what a job well done.Ah how I long for those old days of heavy fisted moments.

[rkidlad]

Govt clueless.

Would have sufficed.

[sunshine51]

i am totally devastated with these statements, one only has to seek the wisdom of brother Thaksin, to know what to do , he did such a great work and he made long lasting friendships , he was a roll model for many, in which the rest of the world could only stand in amazement and say what a job well done.Ah how I long for those old days of heavy fisted moments.

Sir Chainarong....You Jest?!

Oh well...a quote from the Crusades

comes to mind....but not here, not

now.

Edited August 17, 2012 by sunshine51

[ratcatcher]

i am totally devastated with these statements, one only has to seek the wisdom of brother Thaksin, to know what to do , he did such a great work and he made long lasting friendships , he was a roll model for many, in which the rest of the world could only stand in amazement and say what a job well done.Ah how I long for those old days of heavy fisted moments.

Sir Chainarong....You Jest?!

Oh well...a quote from the Crusades

comes to mind....but not here, not

now.

Sunshine, I'm sure he was jesting in fact irony of the 1st order?

Nobody in their right mind would want a repeat of Thaksin's crusades.

"He was a roll [sic] model for many". Mostly a bank roll I'd say.

Edited August 17, 2012 by ratcatcher

[sunshine51]

i am totally devastated with these statements, one only has to seek the wisdom of brother Thaksin, to know what to do , he did such a great work and he made long lasting friendships , he was a roll model for many, in which the rest of the world could only stand in amazement and say what a job well done.Ah how I long for those old days of heavy fisted moments.

Sir Chainarong....You Jest?!

Oh well...a quote from the Crusades

comes to mind....but not here, not

now.

Sunshine, I'm sure he was jesting in fact irony of the 1st order?

Nobody in their right mind would want a repeat of Thaksin's crusades.

"He was a roll [sic] model for many". Mostly a bank roll I'd say.

Hello RC....

I was just trying my best Monty Python out.

I loved chainarong's reply!!!

Wish I could have come up with something

similar but it's too early in the day for me.

[ricardofel]

You guys said it all....this government is clueless.

[toybits]

The Southern situation goes way past the Malaysian Emergency years. It goes back to over one century - 1902 to be exact when something big happened to that area. Pretty much like putting square pegs into round holes. There is no solution.

[DP25]

Start to reduce the military presence and let the locals work to ensure their security.

The end result of this will be that the hundreds of thousands of non Muslim people in these provinces will be ethnically cleansed from the area.

[moe666]

The government is clueless to the fact that some peole do not bow down to them with their hand out wanting more. They think all people are red shirts looking for a hand out.

[SuneeTH]

The Southern situation goes way past the Malaysian Emergency years. It goes back to over one century - 1902 to be exact when something big happened to that area. Pretty much like putting square pegs into round holes. There is no solution.

What happen in 1902?

Mark govt knew exactly how to fix the problem in 99 days. Let him try; AGAIN.

[SpaceKadet]

The Southern situation goes way past the Malaysian Emergency years. It goes back to over one century - 1902 to be exact when something big happened to that area. Pretty much like putting square pegs into round holes. There is no solution.

I think you must mean 1909... But in reality "something big" happened much earlier to the former Sultanate of Patani.

[Tchooptip]

Government is clueless on how to deal with anything !!!!

Maybe, but in the present case, dealing with extremists Muslims, most governments would be clueless same same

[xenophon]

They are not at all clueless.

There is a lot of money being made fairly blatantly in drugs, armaments, trafficking - not to mention career advancement - because of the troubles in the south. The last thing they want is for the insurgency to end and for there to be some semblance of law and order. Luckily for these interests, corruption and cowardice is compounded by incompetence.

As we saw elsewhere, e.g. Sri Lanka, Ireland and various other struggles, there is a thin line between armed conflict and gangsterism.

[rubl]

Tighter security to be carried out in the deep South

BANGKOK, 17 August 2012 (NNT)-Deputy Prime Minister General Yuthasak Sasiprapa has instructed security units in the southernmost provinces to frisk every vehicle that enters and leaves government buildings in an effort to prevent insurgent attacks.

The Deputy Prime Minister said the reinforcement on safety around government offices in the South is expedited following the explosion in the parking lot in front of Panarae Municipality building yesterday.

He suspected the incident was aimed to stir a sense of violence, but with no intention to cause loss of life or large scale damages during the holy month of Ramadan. Intensive vehicle search will be carried out, from now on, across the 3 provinces especially around official areas.

The Deputy Prime Minister elaborated that the vehicle used in the explosion yesterday was the same one used in a recent brutal attack on soldiers in Pattani. He added the truck had been stolen from Yala province. Officials in the restive South have already been told to keep their eyes on suspicious persons as well as vehicles.

-- NNT 2012-08-17

[elshaheen]

Govt clueless on how to deal with South

BANGKOK: -- The strife-torn Southern provinces have always been an enigma in the modern history of Thailand and will likely remain a serious security threat for decades to come.

This wouldn’t surprise me. Thai government in their advanced skills at negotiation with others from a different culture even the other culture resides in their own boundaries is fruitless.

The Southern Thai’s don’t trust the PM or her staff. Why, she is the sister of Thaksin Shinawatra and they don’t trust anyone from that family or administration.

What the Thai government needs to do is to appoint a Muslim negotiator or a mediator period to handle this situation and try to bring a settlement without using force. Why, because they will trust a Muslim not a Shinawatra.

[noitom]

There is a very thin line between terrorism and freedom fighting. What is deplorable is that The Nation has not mounted a more illuminating point of view about the core issues and potential solutions and campaigned fervently for a reversal of thousands and thousands of deaths, family disruption, growing animosity, and escalating risk. The newspapers are the only source of objective points of view and The Nation has dropped the ball on being an informed influencer during the past 10 years of advanced conflict. The international press needs to give this more visibility and momentum. Deaths keep mounting to the ten thousand level plus countless maiming and other tragedies.

[Traxster]

I think it's impossible to 'deal' with Muslim terrorists

because no matter what they agree to,

no matter how many agreements they sign,they will eventually renege

because they suffer from the religious delusion that God/Allah is on their side.

Keep an eye on Afghanistan and Iraq,

once all of the 'infidels'/Americans leave

things will go straight back to where they were before the Bush invasion.

[waza]

Thaksins plan was to buy them out, seems the compensation deal is a start.