Thai Economy Expected To Grow By 4.75-5.75% This Year

[Jai Dee]

BOT EXPECTS THAI ECONOMY TO GROW BY 4.75-5.75% THIS YEAR.

The bank of Thailand (BOT) expects that the Thai economy this year will grow by 4.75 to 5.75%, while inflation rates will stay around 3.5-5%.

Deputy BOT governor on fiscal policy, Ajana Waikwamdee (อัจนา ไวความดี) said that the country’s economy will expand by 4.75-5.75% this year, while the economic growth for 2007 will be around 4.5-6%. She said that the negative economic factors that could disrupt the economy are oil prices, economic growth of trading partners, and regional currencies. She said the positive factor is improved investor confidence in the country.

As for general inflation rates, the BOT expected that this year’s inflation rate will be around 3.5-5%. Meanwhile, Mrs. Ajana said that basic inflation rate will be around 2-3%, but added that the current account balance will improve.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 31 January 2006

[Jim 50]

BOT EXPECTS THAI ECONOMY TO GROW BY 4.75-5.75% THIS YEAR.

The bank of Thailand (BOT) expects that the Thai economy this year will grow by 4.75 to 5.75%, while inflation rates will stay around 3.5-5%.

Deputy BOT governor on fiscal policy, Ajana Waikwamdee (อัจนา ไวความดี) said that the country’s economy will expand by 4.75-5.75% this year, while the economic growth for 2007 will be around 4.5-6%. She said that the negative economic factors that could disrupt the economy are oil prices, economic growth of trading partners, and regional currencies. She said the positive factor is improved investor confidence in the country.

As for general inflation rates, the BOT expected that this year’s inflation rate will be around 3.5-5%. Meanwhile, Mrs. Ajana said that basic inflation rate will be around 2-3%, but added that the current account balance will improve.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 31 January 2006

Good guesswork lady

Rubbish

[Jai Dee]

FINANCE MINISTRY AND BOT FORECASTS 2006 ECONOMY, EXPECTS TO PERFORM BETTER THAN LAST YEAR'S

The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Thailand have announced their expectations for the economy in year 2006, where the economy is expected to expand better than last year.

Finance Ministry Spokesperson Somchai Sajjaphong (สมชัย สัจจพงษ์) said the Thai economy still had good growth in December 2005. In that month foreign tourist arrivals and private sector investments had increased growth. Exports was still high at 9.446 billion US dollars, but the growth rate slowed down. Imports totaled 9.588 billion US dollars, and this resulted in a trade deficit of 142 million US dollars. The Finance Ministry expects the economy to grow by 4.3% this year.

Meanwhile the Bank of Thailand is expecting continuous economic growth this year, at a rate between 4.75 to 5.75 percent. Exports are expected to grow 10 to 12 percent, and imports should expand by 8 to 10 percent. However these expectations are based on the assumption that the Dubai crude price stayed at 57.5 US dollars a barrel.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 31 January 2006

[steveromagnino]

Good guesswork lady

Rubbish

While I realise that their methods of estimation are pretty junk and a bit of a stab, the guys like GS, MacQ and so on are guessing similar...

So.... what is your guess and reasons - I know little about macro economics so would be keen to learn....

[thedude]

i've found the BOT estimates to be quite credible and in fact a bit conservative from my observations over the past 2 years.

all estimates are guesswork by the way, made up a complex matrices of assumptions, built on data.

the more accurate your data, the more accurate your guesswork.

interpretation of the data also depends heavily on your understanding of it. sometimes, knowing what the data represents is as important as understanding what it does NOT represent. i have found some IBs to be strangely misguided by government data, so its does not mean that all because you are GS or SSB or ML or whatever, that you are somehow better than the BOT's estimates.

just my 2 satangs.

[steveromagnino]

i've found the BOT estimates to be quite credible and in fact a bit conservative from my observations over the past 2 years.

all estimates are guesswork by the way, made up a complex matrices of assumptions, built on data.

the more accurate your data, the more accurate your guesswork.

interpretation of the data also depends heavily on your understanding of it. sometimes, knowing what the data represents is as important as understanding what it does NOT represent. i have found some IBs to be strangely misguided by government data, so its does not mean that all because you are GS or SSB or ML or whatever, that you are somehow better than the BOT's estimates.

Makes sense to me, how come you don't refer to yourself in the 3rd person anymore?!! 'The dude finds the BOT estimates...The Dude interprets....'

[britainmal]

I don't know the figures, so I can't say she is wrong.

Deputy BOT governor on fiscal policy, Ajana Waikwamdee (อัจนา ไวความดี)

She said that the negative economic factors that could disrupt the economy are oil prices, economic growth of trading partners, and regional currencies. She said the positive factor is improved investor confidence in the country.

I can't see economic growth of trading partners a negative thing and as far as having improved investor confidence, I can't see this with all these anti-foreigner investment remarks.

[thedude]

i've found the BOT estimates to be quite credible and in fact a bit conservative from my observations over the past 2 years.

all estimates are guesswork by the way, made up a complex matrices of assumptions, built on data.

the more accurate your data, the more accurate your guesswork.

interpretation of the data also depends heavily on your understanding of it. sometimes, knowing what the data represents is as important as understanding what it does NOT represent. i have found some IBs to be strangely misguided by government data, so its does not mean that all because you are GS or SSB or ML or whatever, that you are somehow better than the BOT's estimates.

Makes sense to me, how come you don't refer to yourself in the 3rd person anymore?!! 'The dude finds the BOT estimates...The Dude interprets....'

thats because you've mistaken me for The Dude, who is another member, i am thedude.

i never refer to myself in the 3rd person, steve, and i'm truly insulted that you fail to notice that i am a complete other dude.

[steveromagnino]

Well I have noticed that you were actually writing coherently and not ranting and raving stuff I could not understand... hence my comment?!

Now I see clearly that you are indeed two separate people. And here I was thinking you were one of them, er, people who go on a bender, get drunk and write junk on the net.... how wrong am i!!!

Sorry 'bout that!!!

[Butterfly]

Last time I heard such good news about the economy was in January 1997

Same tone, same meaningless statements

get your helmet, it's coming

SET crashing already with the Thaksin fire sale

[cclub75]

However these expectations are based on the assumption that the Dubai crude price stayed at 57.5 US dollars a barrel.

He can already eat the paper he wrote : since 01/01, Dubai crude price is above 61 USD per barrel.

And it's only the begining. Who can believe that the Iran problem, along with strong demand from China and India, are going to be solved quickly ? I mean in a matter of months ?

Since last august, we have the proof that the market is really fragile. A simple "event" (hurricane) and the price goes sky rocketing. So easy to imagine what would be the consequences, if the crisis with Iran is going a step forward...

So at the best : a strong price all over the year

At the worst : we will see the street of bangkok EMPTY of cars... Because nobody would be rich enough to buy gasoline...