TROPICAL STORM WARNING

Gaemi to cover wider area

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Tropical Storm Gaemi has changed its course on its way to Thailand is now going further south, which will result in heavier rain, especially in the upper Southern region, Royol Jindon, who is involved in overall flood and water management operations, said yesterday.

He explained that the volume of rain could hit 100 millimetres per hour in the upper South, which lies at a junction of the main thorough-fare to the entire region and hence cause massive traffic congestion in case of flooding. The storm's change of course means that more areas will be affected, he added.

Heavy rain is expected in at least 60 per cent of the storm's path in the lower North, lower Central and upper Southern regions.

Subsequent storms can be expected if Gaemi's eye reaches its maximum potential in the Gulf of Thailand, he said.

Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change.

Flood relief and operations centres have been set up in the 30 provinces most vulnerable to heavy flooding after the Department of Disaster Prevention and Litigation held a teleconfer-ence with the provincial governors. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has instructed these governors to be available round the clock.

Meanwhile, the Meteoro-logical Department said Gaemi would possibly have an influence on Thailand when it reached Vietnam tomorrow evening, though it might weaken along the way.

The flooding situation in Bangkok, especially in the west, has to be assessed on a day-to-day basis if the volume of rain exceeds the level of 60mm per hour, a senior Bangkok Metropolitan Administration official said.

The BMA's medical emer-gency and relief services have been ordered be on 24-hour standby.

-- The Nation 2012-10-06

The beginning of the week. TV weather forecasts showed the rye passing acroos the Northern tip of the peninsula, Looks like they were nearer the mark than subsequent tracks showed.

Warning: "Tropical Cyclone “GAEMI”"

No. 20 (293/2555) Time Issued : October 06, 2012

At 01.00 LST, on 6 October, tropical storm “GAEMI” in the middle South China Sea was centered about 450 km east of Da Nang, Vietnam, or at latitude 14.0 °N and 113.0 °E, with maximum sustained wind about 80 km./hr. It was moving west with speed about 20 km/hr.

Strengthen, it will make landfall over central Vietnam by 6 October, then downgrade and move pass the lower Northeast, the East and the Central of Thailand. These cause torrential rain with heavy to very heavy rain in many areas and windy over the Northeast (Amnat Charoen, Ubon Ratchathani, Si Sa Ket, Surin, Buri Ram and. Nakhon Ratchasima) and the East (Sa Kaeo, Prachin Buri) for the first place following the Central and the lower North during 6-8 October. People in the risk areas should beware of the severe weather.

The stronger southwest monsoon prevails over the Andaman Sea, the South and the Gulf of Thailand. More rain is likely in the South west coast of the country and the stronger wind waves are expected 2-3 meters high in the upper Gulf and the Andaman Sea. All ships should proceed with caution, and small boats keep ashore during 7-9 October.

The monsoon trough covers the central and the east to tropical storm “GAEMI”.

The advisory will be effect on 6 October 2012.

Issued at 05.30 a.m.

-- http://www.tmd.go.th/en/ 2012-10-06

Tropical Storm Gaemi

tracking map

http://www.wundergro...g/wp201221.html

I would find that including the list of the thirty provinces that are the most vulnerable to the flooding as a valuable piece of information to have.

Here is an useful link showing multiple forecasts from different agencies..

http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 6 Oct, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GAEMI (21W) currently located near 13.5 N 111.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Vietnam

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Qui Nhon (13.8 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Tuy Hoa (13.1 N, 109.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Nha Trang (12.2 N, 109.2 E)

probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

-- tropicalstormrisk.com

still pure sunshine here in SOUTH Phuket.....but ok, lookes like the world is goin down already in Patong hope it will not crossing the mountains ...

If last nights downpour in the burbs was any indication for this weekend, it will be big. Streets in Meng Jai were covered in some areas half a metre deep.

Here is an useful link showing multiple forecasts from different agencies..

http://wind.mit.edu/...nuel/storm.html

good link Kotsak, thx ... looks like Phuket getting the full load.... hope not, have to drive to Ranong soon...

BTW, Thai TV just said tomorrow and day after tomorrow, so 7+8 of Oct.

Edited October 6, 201213 yr by moskito

All sunny in Krabi and according the aonang weather.com we should not see a lot of this storm, had a heavy downpour yesterday for about an hour or so, nothing unusual so far.

I can already hear the sound of property values rising in Chiang Mai.

Here is an useful link showing multiple forecasts from different agencies..

http://wind.mit.edu/...nuel/storm.html

good link Kotsak, thx ... looks like Phuket getting the full load.... hope not, have to drive to Ranong soon...

BTW, Thai TV just said tomorrow and day after tomorrow, so 7+8 of Oct.

I think your map-reading may be a little out. They are all tracking well north of Phuket though I really don't understand the GFNI forecast (the red one).

I think your map-reading may be a little out. They are all tracking well north of Phuket though I really don't understand the GFNI forecast (the red one).

The odd one is the AFWI tracking. Red, but with diamonds, not circles.

I can already hear the sound of property values rising in Chiang Mai.

Until the burning season starts in February.

Have no fear everyone, Yingluck has personally taken over the flood prevention activities...we are all saved.......

I think your map-reading may be a little out. They are all tracking well north of Phuket though I really don't understand the GFNI forecast (the red one).

The odd one is the AFWI tracking. Red, but with diamonds, not circles.

You're right. That's a really weird prediction. Maybe they are expecting the monsoon to change overnight.

Big rain here in pattaya last night

First off, a tropical storm doesn't have an "eye". Typhoon/Hurricanes do. Tropical storm Gaemi will move onshore lower Vietnam this evening and by Sunday morning will no longer be a tropical storm as it moves into Cambodia. It will weaken. It will just be an area of low pressure that will move westward and affect the eastern and lower north and upper south of Thailand starting Sunday night and Monday. The storm will not regenerate over the Gulf of Thailand. It will continue west and out over the Andaman Sea by Tuesday. That being said, rainfall along the path with the remnants of tropical systems can be, and in this case, will be heavy. In the US, usually 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200mm) of rain can be expected and depending on the speed of the system, maybe more. Probably the same can be expected in localized areas along the path in Thailand. Heavy rain for Bangkok on Monday.

"Thai authorities will confirm the change in Gaemi's course tomorrow, even though several meteorological reports from international sources have suggested its change." The Thai's a little behind the power curve again. The forecast tracks from the different weather models, except for the one crazy AFWI, seem to be pretty good. These tracks do not mean that there is still a tropical storm, it is just tracking the weather system or what's left of it thru out the forecast time frame.

As for down in Phuket, the Southwest Monsoon will intensify as the system moves westward and be what brings heavier rainfall down in that area. Everyone should have some extra rain.

Ok, weather class 101 is now over with.

We were planning to land in Thailand on October 8. Does this mean we have to change our schedule or will the storm weaken on Monday?

I would find that including the list of the thirty provinces that are the most vulnerable to the flooding as a valuable piece of information to have.

Agreed. C'mon peeps, THINK!!

Water agency urges public to monitor advice from local authorities for storm Gaemi

BANGKOK, Oct 6 -- The Water and Flood Management Commission urged public to listen and monitor advice from local authorities for storm Gaemi, as different areas have different responses to handle the situation.

On the weekly TV and radio programme "Yingluck's Government Meets People," the chairman of the Water and Flood Management Commission's sub-committee on water situation analysis Royal Chitradon, said that the storm Gaemi was expected to make landfall in Thailand on October 8-9 which would causing heavy downpours in Rayong, Chantaburi, Chon Buri, and Bangkok.

The storm wound intensify as it moved to the Gulf of Thailand causing heavy rainfall in Phetchaburi and Ratchaburi during October 8-10, he said.

As for the response plan for Bangkok, Mr Royal--who is also the Hydro-Agro Informatics Institute chief--said a joint operation centre was set up to monitor the situation in Bangkok.

Water-pushing boats have been placed in major canals and water pumps also installed to drain water into canals on the west and east sides of the capital, he said, adding that the drainage of water in Bangkok is being carried out more effectively.

He believed authorities could control the situation in Bangkok.

National Disaster Warning Centre director Group Capt Somsak Khaosuwan said the public has been informed to be alerted and authorities were ready to respond to the situation while the armed forces were also prepared to support the government.

He urged the public to pay attention to warnings and recommendations from local agencies as each location would have different response plans. (MCOT online news)

-- TNA 2012-10-06

We were planning to land in Thailand on October 8. Does this mean we have to change our schedule or will the storm weaken on Monday?

How long are you planning to stay in Thailand? Where are you planning to be in the first couple of days?

Overall, I'd say that you may be inconvenienced for a day, but it's not like it's a hurricane or anything, just some heavy rain.

I can already hear the sound of property values rising in Chiang Mai.

Until the Quake hits you????

We were planning to land in Thailand on October 8. Does this mean we have to change our schedule or will the storm weaken on Monday?

How long are you planning to stay in Thailand? Where are you planning to be in the first couple of days?

Overall, I'd say that you may be inconvenienced for a day, but it's not like it's a hurricane or anything, just some heavy rain.

2 weeks. first two days in bk and then in phuket.

Water agency urges public to monitor advice from local authorities for storm Gaemi

And do the opposite.

We were planning to land in Thailand on October 8. Does this mean we have to change our schedule or will the storm weaken on Monday?

lovely and sunny here in PATTS but one hell of a storm last night ,still the garden liked it.

I think your map-reading may be a little out. They are all tracking well north of Phuket though I really don't understand the GFNI forecast (the red one).

The odd one is the AFWI tracking. Red, but with diamonds, not circles.

check it in a hour again, the map is changing....sometimes it shows the storm goin to Malaysia....and I heard property in Chiang mai is rising ...ohhh i am the second here....must be true then

We were planning to land in Thailand on October 8. Does this mean we have to change our schedule or will the storm weaken on Monday?

Not sure, god does not seem to be answering his phone.

Big rain here in pattaya last night

YES floods in low lying areas,it flooded outside my home last night(east Pattaya),but soon disappears when the hard rain stops