The Condo Bubble

[chiang mai]

That 1.3 trill has been around long enough to where it's now regarded as a part of the everyday landscape, if they wait long enough they can inflate the total sum away and in the meantime the IMF will be very happy with the interest payments.

But what concerns me, and I tried to raise this point earlier, is the degree to which non performing loans in Thailand are understated. A BOT report provided by another poster talks of NPL being decreasing to 2.5% of total loans http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/PressAndSpeeches/Press/News2555/n4155e.pdf whislt at the same time, the loan to deposit ratio increased from 72% to 114% (Asian Banker). I find it surprising in a country such as Thailand that the collective loan book increases by over a quarter whilst NPL decrease to such a low level, is it just me or is there a bunch of off balance sheet stuff that completes this picture, apart from the 1.3 trillion that is!

[NeverSure]

That 1.3 trill has been around long enough to where it's now regarded as a part of the everyday landscape, if they wait long enough they can inflate the total sum away and in the meantime the IMF will be very happy with the interest payments.

But what concerns me, and I tried to raise this point earlier, is the degree to which non performing loans in Thailand are understated. A BOT report provided by another poster talks of NPL being decreasing to 2.5% of total loans http://www.bot.or.th...2555/n4155e.pdf whislt at the same time, the loan to deposit ratio increased from 72% to 114% (Asian Banker). I find it surprising in a country such as Thailand that the collective loan book increases by over a quarter whilst NPL decrease to such a low level, is it just me or is there a bunch of off balance sheet stuff that completes this picture, apart from the 1.3 trillion that is!

I wonder what kind of regulations and audits the Thai banks have? In developed countries they'd be in place.

I only know the US and I know it well. I used to be a banker and an auditor at that. One of my best and longest friends is chairman of a bank and he's really been through it although they survived.

Depositors' money is insured by the FDIC for $250,000 per account. The feds therefore take great interest in the books of a bank and audit them at least once per year. Each bank is also subject to a surprise audit by the State Banking Commissioner. Each bank also has its own internal auditing department which audits each of its branches at least once a year. Nothing gets past anyone.

If a loan is 30 days late, it is moved on the financial statement into delinquent. If 90 days, it has to be charged to expense as a loss. If the loan is later paid, it can be credited to income. The bank has to maintain its own capital as a prescribed ratio of capital to loans, to buffer losses. That ratio varies by edict from the Federal Reserve as it loosens or tightens the money supply and the flow of credit.

The desired loan to deposit ratio is 80%, and as I showed in another post somewhere even that is a house of cards.

If the government is corrupt and is making money on the banks and the RE developers and doesn't want it to stop, who is stopping them from cooking the books? Oh, that big loan is delinquent? Well, let's just move it from loans to a long term asset. Debit meet credit and it's done. I don't trust these numbers I'm hearing.

Remember once again that a bank's financial statement is so bass ackwards that it drives a real accountant nuts. For instance, all loans of any type are assets because they are owed to the bank. All cash in the safe, in the tellers windows, and all bank deposit accounts are liabilities because they belong to the depositors. Cash and deposits go on the liability side of the ledger, in the red, and it takes a credit to reduce them and a debit to increase them!!!!!!!!!

Give me a day in a bank and I'll make its books look great if no smart auditor is going to follow me or if there is no law against it, or if possibly no one gives a dimn because someone up there is making a lot of money.

Edited October 23, 2012 by NeverSure

[NeverSure]

I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL.

[chiang mai]

The true cost of government projects is not known until the project is closed, the rice pledging scheme for example is eatimated at 400bill but that's calculated on a cash basis, accountants reckon the true cost of that project may be 150% of that figure and until its closed, those numbers don't show up anywhere other than as a cash expense!

[NeverSure]

The true cost of government projects is not known until the project is closed, the rice pledging scheme for example is eatimated at 400bill but that's calculated on a cash basis, accountants reckon the true cost of that project may be 150% of that figure and until its closed, those numbers don't show up anywhere other than as a cash expense!

OK, I don't know how the rice support works. I know only that it's there, that the Thai government has bought a mountain of rice to support prices, and must soon sell it. It isn't a durable commodity.

What I read is that when they sell, it will be at a big loss. Dumping that much rice onto the market, with Thailand being the world's #1 rice exporter, has to depress world prices. More is being grown and it has to go somewhere.

To me that means that surely the Thai government will take a huge loss on the rice they bought at support prices? Surely that's an upcoming expense? I wonder where they get that kind of money?

Is the 400 bil baht or... ?? I ask only because the dollar is the international trading unit.

Who the heck is going to buy that rice with another crop right behind it, and lots of rice grown around the world?

[chiang mai]

Yes I agree. But the message I was trying to deliver is that there is so much smoke and mirrors associated with financial reporting, especially of the banks and government in Thailand, that it's difficult to understand what the true position of anything is, at any point in time. Given that Krung Thai Bank is effectively owned by the government, the true state of finances may never be fully understood.

[WilliaminBKK]

NeverSure & Chiang Mai - your insight is teaching this fool so much

[NeverSure]

Yes I agree. But the message I was trying to deliver is that there is so much smoke and mirrors associated with financial reporting, especially of the banks and government in Thailand, that it's difficult to understand what the true position of anything is, at any point in time. Given that Krung Thai Bank is effectively owned by the government, the true state of finances may never be fully understood.

Yep, I got your message and I couldn't agree more. Your posts are clear and logical, and I'm tracking with you.

[chiangmaikelly]

I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL.

It is a holiday in Thailand. The people who live here are off work today and sleeping. Only the Thai wannabees are up posting.

[NeverSure]

I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL.

It is a holiday in Thailand. The people who live here are off work today and sleeping. Only the Thai wannabees are up posting.

Nice shot, Chaingangkelly. Always, when you're getting your butt kick intellectually, insult the messenger. Change the subject but attack from the flank. Try to appear superior no matter how badly you're butt hurt.

You did really hurt my feelings there, you know. It's almost 7:00 PM here.

I think I'll go get a beer. I know when I'm whipped.

[n0mad]

Have read through the topic and find it concerning the loudest contributor can provide some very suspect data as proof to his premise, seems to think the credit crisis stemmed from CDO's not the fact the mortgage holders who were bundled into them couldn't pay their debts, and basically says this time is different to the currency crisis.

just so you know, this time should be different if they have learnt anything. if so ,it does not mean they won't get into a similar situation for different reasons. look back at previous recessions and see how many were caused by the exact same reason as a previous one... you will see many were caused for various unique reasons.

you can bury your head in the sand and hope for the best and i really hope for your sake things turn out well or you can do your own research and do what ever you can to minimise risks to your investment if you choose to go ahead. Knowing the risks and working them into your plans is much better than ignoring and hoping for the best.

[IamNotaNumber]

It is a holiday in Thailand. The people who live here are off work today and sleeping. Only the Thai wannabees are up posting.

There are plenty of people who live here and dont work and aren't so exhausted that they need to sleep in. Why? Probably because they invested sensibly elsewhere.

I am one of these people. I dont spend my days worrying about work permits, or visa runs, or whether my Thai condo has a tenant or not, or whether it is worth more or less than I paid for it. I just watch my bank balance grow and wonder why on earth people are apparently so keen to "invest" in property in a country where they do not have right of abode.

[chiangmaikelly]

It is a holiday in Thailand. The people who live here are off work today and sleeping. Only the Thai wannabees are up posting.

There are plenty of people who live here and dont work and aren't so exhausted that they need to sleep in. Why? Probably because they invested sensibly elsewhere.

I am one of these people. I dont spend my days worrying about work permits, or visa runs, or whether my Thai condo has a tenant or not, or whether it is worth more or less than I paid for it. I just watch my bank balance grow and wonder why on earth people are apparently so keen to "invest" in property in a country where they do not have right of abode.

So you are rich and why are you telling us that?

[chiangmaikelly]

I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL.

It is a holiday in Thailand. The people who live here are off work today and sleeping. Only the Thai wannabees are up posting.

Nice shot, Chaingangkelly. Always, when you're getting your butt kick intellectually, insult the messenger. Change the subject but attack from the flank. Try to appear superior no matter how badly you're butt hurt.

You did really hurt my feelings there, you know. It's almost 7:00 PM here.

I think I'll go get a beer. I know when I'm whipped.

You wrote, "I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL." That was a flame. I was trying to explain to you why people in Thailand were not up posting at 6 AM on a holiday.

Why would you lose me by talking about the American Banking system? It has nothing to do with Thailand. Maybe someone is interested but I got all my money out of the American Banking system 10 years ago. Sorry if you did not. The smart money left before the crash.

There is no Condo bubble. If you knew something about the Thai banking system you would know that. People who bought a wise condo investment 2 years ago and sold today made money. People who invest in a good condo in a good location today and sell in two years will make money. There are billions going into the Pattaya condo market as I type this. Nothing new.

I do have a question for you though. Why would you post all of this negative information on Thai Visa? No one really cares about your opinion as you don't have any track record of living here. Maybe in the business forum would be the place. They discuss gold there. But why are you so anxious to discuss what you think is Thai ignorance of financial well being?

All of your posts are about the US being better than Thailand and cheaper and so on. Why would you come here and post that? Do you think the people on Thai Visa will move to the US?

Edited October 23, 2012 by chiangmaikelly

[chiang mai]

Guys, do we have to personalise this, it's a worthwhile enough topic that could stand some useful debate, be a shame if the mods closed it down just because a couple of posters can't control themselves and get into chidlike name calling etc.

[NeverSure]

You wrote, "I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL." That was a flame. I was trying to explain to you why people in Thailand were not up posting at 6 AM on a holiday.

Why would you lose me by talking about the American Banking system? It has nothing to do with Thailand. Maybe someone is interested but I got all my money out of the American Banking system 10 years ago. Sorry if you did not. The smart money left before the crash.

There is no Condo bubble. If you knew something about the Thai banking system you would know that. People who bought a wise condo investment 2 years ago and sold today made money. People who invest in a good condo in a good location today and sell in two years will make money. There are billions going into the Pattaya condo market as I type this. Nothing new.

I do have a question for you though. Why would you post all of this negative information on Thai Visa? No one really cares about your opinion as you don't have any track record of living here. Maybe in the business forum would be the place. They discuss gold there. But why are you so anxious to discuss what you think is Thai ignorance of financial well being?

All of your posts are about the US being better than Thailand and cheaper and so on. Why would you come here and post that? Do you think the people on Thai Visa will move to the US?

Keep practicing Chain Gang Kelly. You're improving. NEVER actually debate the points made when you're either losing or clueless. ALWAYS resort to attacking the person. It makes you feel better, and gives everyone else a good laugh.

Uh, your "I do have a question for you though. Why would you post all of this negative information on Thai Visa?"

Well Chain Gang, someone started a thread called "The Condo Bubble" see, so, well, we're discussing the Condo Bubble.

You should try it. Just concentrate, pay attention, and do your best to follow along.

Edited October 23, 2012 by NeverSure

[chiangmaikelly]

You wrote, "I should have lost chiangmaikelly by now, LOL." That was a flame. I was trying to explain to you why people in Thailand were not up posting at 6 AM on a holiday.

Why would you lose me by talking about the American Banking system? It has nothing to do with Thailand. Maybe someone is interested but I got all my money out of the American Banking system 10 years ago. Sorry if you did not. The smart money left before the crash.

There is no Condo bubble. If you knew something about the Thai banking system you would know that. People who bought a wise condo investment 2 years ago and sold today made money. People who invest in a good condo in a good location today and sell in two years will make money. There are billions going into the Pattaya condo market as I type this. Nothing new.

I do have a question for you though. Why would you post all of this negative information on Thai Visa? No one really cares about your opinion as you don't have any track record of living here. Maybe in the business forum would be the place. They discuss gold there. But why are you so anxious to discuss what you think is Thai ignorance of financial well being?

All of your posts are about the US being better than Thailand and cheaper and so on. Why would you come here and post that? Do you think the people on Thai Visa will move to the US?

Keep practicing Chain Gang Kelly. You're improving. NEVER actually debate the points made when you're either losing or clueless. ALWAYS resort to attacking the person. It makes you feel better, and gives everyone else a good laugh.

Uh, your "I do have a question for you though. Why would you post all of this negative information on Thai Visa?"

Well Chain Gang, someone started a thread called "The Condo Bubble" see, so, well, we're discussing the Condo Bubble.

You should try it. Just concentrate, pay attention, and do your best to follow along.

You wrote, " I only know the US and I know it well. I used to be a banker and an auditor at that. One of my best and longest friends is chairman of a bank and he's really been through it although they survived.

Depositors' money is insured by the FDIC for $250,000 per account. The feds therefore take great interest in the books of a bank and audit them at least once per year. Each bank is also subject to a surprise audit by the State Banking Commissioner. Each bank also has its own internal auditing department which audits each of its branches at least once a year. Nothing gets past anyone."

What does that have to do with the Condo Bubble in Thailand?

And stop the flaming and name calling it is childish. " Chain Gang Kelly?"

[IamNotaNumber]

So you are rich and why are you telling us that?

I dont consider myself rich. I do consider myself well-off. I do have enough to live on well and to buy all the things I want. To count as rich I would need to have vastly more and to be able to afford to buy islands in the Bahamas on a whim, for example.

And I am telling you about it because you appear to be under the misapprehension that every farang here needs to work or wants to "invest". This is not the case.

I could buy dozens of condos if I wanted to, but I would rather rent for various reasons.

The main reasons are:

1) Asking prices here are too high and there is no transparency. The market is very artificial, with many people buying multiple units for cash with apparently no intention of either living in them or renting them. They only seem to want to put them up for sale at very inflated prices and are prepared to wait years (or indeed for ever) for a sale. This seems very odd.

2) There appears to be significant oversupply of condos where I live (Pattaya) with many more to come. As such there are plenty of good-value rentals available now, and more to come. There are also many empty places with absurdly high rental asking prices, but of course one has to weed those out and negotiate the prices down.

3) I do not have right of abode here and probably never will have, I cant own land at all and I can only even own a condo in a special category and by concession. This concession could be removed or modified at any time, along with my temporary permission to stay. This is about as insecure as one can get and it does not appeal to me. So here I own a car and a nice TV and a few other things that I can sell at a moment's notice or put in a bag and leave with.

4) I get a better return for less hassle with more security by investing in other things elsewhere.

There are other reasons.

[chiangmaikelly]

Guys, do we have to personalise this, it's a worthwhile enough topic that could stand some useful debate, be a shame if the mods closed it down just because a couple of posters can't control themselves and get into chidlike name calling etc.

I agree with you but name calling and constant comparison of Thailand to America serves no purpose. America is the largest economy in the world and has a giant population. Do you think anyone would start a topic, If Thailand is not the same as America Thailand is bad? Do you think anyone would start a topic that if Thailand's banking system was not the same as America it is a bad banking system? The use of America as a symbol of correct banking, living and well being is just foolish.

[harryfrompattaya]

It is a holiday in Thailand. The people who live here are off work today and sleeping. Only the Thai wannabees are up posting.

There are plenty of people who live here and dont work and aren't so exhausted that they need to sleep in. Why? Probably because they invested sensibly elsewhere.

I am one of these people. I dont spend my days worrying about work permits, or visa runs, or whether my Thai condo has a tenant or not, or whether it is worth more or less than I paid for it. I just watch my bank balance grow and wonder why on earth people are apparently so keen to "invest" in property in a country where they do not have right of abode.

So you are rich and why are you telling us that?

You of all people telling people how rich smart and strong you are I am 83 and will to match you in all 3 plus love making

Stop making a fool of yourself Mr known it all

[NeverSure]

You wrote, " I only know the US and I know it well. I used to be a banker and an auditor at that. One of my best and longest friends is chairman of a bank and he's really been through it although they survived.

Depositors' money is insured by the FDIC for $250,000 per account. The feds therefore take great interest in the books of a bank and audit them at least once per year. Each bank is also subject to a surprise audit by the State Banking Commissioner. Each bank also has its own internal auditing department which audits each of its branches at least once a year. Nothing gets past anyone."

What does that have to do with the Condo Bubble in Thailand?

And stop the flaming and name calling it is childish. " Chain Gang Kelly?"

Well Kelly (OK, I'll stop calling you Chain Gang) see, we were talking about loans, banking, defaults, and whether anything was hidden here.

Telling me that my US banking experience doesn't count here is like telling me I would forget how to ride my Harleys in LOS.

See, there is an international banking system which all works together. They all keep books and do things in a similar ways. There are banks which have branches in the US and Thailand. They wire money back and forth, choose each other as Correspondent Banks, and so on.

The thing I don't know is the regulatory system in LOS and whether it's even enforced. I do know from experience that a lot of Thai laws are enforced selectively at the whim of whoever.

Therefore, it is a valid question to wonder how the government borrowed money from the US and the IMF to bail out Thai banks in 1997, and where that money went. It's especially valid when we all know that there are still vacant and unfinished condos from then. It's valid to wonder who's pockets that money went into with the collateral still sitting there untouched.

It's valid to wonder why, since that 1997 crash is unfinished, another boom is in full bloom. It's a "didn't they learn anything from when they crashed due to over building in such a recent past?"

Now please understand. I really don't expect you to keep up. This is way over your head and we all know it.

From now on I'll just pretend you didn't post anything, won't reply, and we'll both be happy. I'll just skip right over your posts. OK?

[chiangmaikelly]

So you are rich and why are you telling us that?

I dont consider myself rich. I do consider myself well-off. I do have enough to live on well and to buy all the things I want. To count as rich I would need to have vastly more and to be able to afford to buy islands in the Bahamas on a whim, for example.

And I am telling you about it because you appear to be under the misapprehension that every farang here needs to work or wants to "invest". This is not the case.

I could buy dozens of condos if I wanted to, but I would rather rent for various reasons.

The main reasons are:

1) Asking prices here are too high and there is no transparency. The market is very artificial, with many people buying multiple units for cash with apparently no intention of either living in them or renting them. They only seem to want to put them up for sale at very inflated prices and are prepared to wait years (or indeed for ever) for a sale. This seems very odd.

2) There appears to be significant oversupply of condos where I live (Pattaya) with many more to come. As such there are plenty of good-value rentals available now, and more to come. There are also many empty places with absurdly high rental asking prices, but of course one has to weed those out and negotiate the prices down.

3) I do not have right of abode here and probably never will have, I cant own land at all and I can only even own a condo in a special category and by concession. This concession could be removed or modified at any time, along with my temporary permission to stay. This is about as insecure as one can get and it does not appeal to me. So here I own a car and a nice TV and a few other things that I can sell at a moment's notice or put in a bag and leave with.

4) I get a better return for less hassle with more security by investing in other things elsewhere.

There are other reasons.

I think Pattaya got its first Farang around 1970. It has been getting more almost every year since. That's 40 plus years of growth. How long you been here? Just asking...

Real estate is not like commodities. For every winner there is not a loser.

[cheeryble]

.

Edited October 23, 2012 by cheeryble

[n0mad]

So you are rich and why are you telling us that?

I dont consider myself rich. I do consider myself well-off. I do have enough to live on well and to buy all the things I want. To count as rich I would need to have vastly more and to be able to afford to buy islands in the Bahamas on a whim, for example.

And I am telling you about it because you appear to be under the misapprehension that every farang here needs to work or wants to "invest". This is not the case.

I could buy dozens of condos if I wanted to, but I would rather rent for various reasons.

The main reasons are:

1) Asking prices here are too high and there is no transparency. The market is very artificial, with many people buying multiple units for cash with apparently no intention of either living in them or renting them. They only seem to want to put them up for sale at very inflated prices and are prepared to wait years (or indeed for ever) for a sale. This seems very odd.

2) There appears to be significant oversupply of condos where I live (Pattaya) with many more to come. As such there are plenty of good-value rentals available now, and more to come. There are also many empty places with absurdly high rental asking prices, but of course one has to weed those out and negotiate the prices down.

3) I do not have right of abode here and probably never will have, I cant own land at all and I can only even own a condo in a special category and by concession. This concession could be removed or modified at any time, along with my temporary permission to stay. This is about as insecure as one can get and it does not appeal to me. So here I own a car and a nice TV and a few other things that I can sell at a moment's notice or put in a bag and leave with.

4) I get a better return for less hassle with more security by investing in other things elsewhere.

There are other reasons.

I think Pattaya got its first Farang around 1970. It has been getting more almost every year since. That's 40 plus years of growth. How long you been here? Just asking...

Real estate is not like commodities. For every winner there is not a loser.

When the time comes and people have to start selling you may revise that quote. People in the US and Europe used to think this way as well until winners started becoming losers.

you mentioned a 0.5% unemployment rate and how Thailand has huge contributions to GDP from car manufacturers etc what happens if Europe and US deteriorate to the point that no one can afford cars anymore? What happens when Thai manufactured goods are no longer in demand? What will happen to GDP then? Thinking Thailand is immune to western economic woes is like putting your head in the sand. Thailand could easily be dragged in to the current global economic woes and one of the first things to pop will be the condo bubble, all it needs is a catalyst like unemployment rising or wages dropping.

then there is the current Thai specific issues you seem to think are not there, just like all those greeks, Americans, English, Spanish... who all thought their economies were rosy and that property couldn't lose.

Finally, you mentioned the below much earlier in the thread:

" In the first quarter of 2012, the banking system reported net profit of 40.1 billion

baht, increasing 29.0% from last quarter."

Firstly, is that figure of 29% correct and if so how is that sustainable? in fact how can an entire banking system grow net profit 29% from a previous quarter... unless there was a natural disaster (perhaps floods) which affected profits in the previous quarter which then makes your figure worthless without better context or understanding of any cyclical factors impacting the Banking system.

[chiangmaikelly]

So you are rich and why are you telling us that?

I dont consider myself rich. I do consider myself well-off. I do have enough to live on well and to buy all the things I want. To count as rich I would need to have vastly more and to be able to afford to buy islands in the Bahamas on a whim, for example.

And I am telling you about it because you appear to be under the misapprehension that every farang here needs to work or wants to "invest". This is not the case.

I could buy dozens of condos if I wanted to, but I would rather rent for various reasons.

The main reasons are:

1) Asking prices here are too high and there is no transparency. The market is very artificial, with many people buying multiple units for cash with apparently no intention of either living in them or renting them. They only seem to want to put them up for sale at very inflated prices and are prepared to wait years (or indeed for ever) for a sale. This seems very odd.

2) There appears to be significant oversupply of condos where I live (Pattaya) with many more to come. As such there are plenty of good-value rentals available now, and more to come. There are also many empty places with absurdly high rental asking prices, but of course one has to weed those out and negotiate the prices down.

3) I do not have right of abode here and probably never will have, I cant own land at all and I can only even own a condo in a special category and by concession. This concession could be removed or modified at any time, along with my temporary permission to stay. This is about as insecure as one can get and it does not appeal to me. So here I own a car and a nice TV and a few other things that I can sell at a moment's notice or put in a bag and leave with.

4) I get a better return for less hassle with more security by investing in other things elsewhere.

There are other reasons.

I think Pattaya got its first Farang around 1970. It has been getting more almost every year since. That's 40 plus years of growth. How long you been here? Just asking...

Real estate is not like commodities. For every winner there is not a loser.

When the time comes and people have to start selling you may revise that quote. People in the US and Europe used to think this way as well until winners started becoming losers.

you mentioned a 0.5% unemployment rate and how Thailand has huge contributions to GDP from car manufacturers etc what happens if Europe and US deteriorate to the point that no one can afford cars anymore? What happens when Thai manufactured goods are no longer in demand? What will happen to GDP then? Thinking Thailand is immune to western economic woes is like putting your head in the sand. Thailand could easily be dragged in to the current global economic woes and one of the first things to pop will be the condo bubble, all it needs is a catalyst like unemployment rising or wages dropping.

then there is the current Thai specific issues you seem to think are not there, just like all those greeks, Americans, English, Spanish... who all thought their economies were rosy and that property couldn't lose.

Finally, you mentioned the below much earlier in the thread:

" In the first quarter of 2012, the banking system reported net profit of 40.1 billion

baht, increasing 29.0% from last quarter."

Firstly, is that figure of 29% correct and if so how is that sustainable? in fact how can an entire banking system grow net profit 29% from a previous quarter... unless there was a natural disaster (perhaps floods) which affected profits in the previous quarter which then makes your figure worthless without better context or understanding of any cyclical factors impacting the Banking system.

No I said Thailand had a 0% unemployment rate.

I don't know if 29% is accurate. Take it up with the Bank of Thailand.

I think the rest of your post is based on Thailand being like you wrote, "just like all those greeks, Americans, English, Spanish."

I think you mean the PIGS. Do I think Thailand is like the PIGS? NO I don't and no one else does either.

Edited October 23, 2012 by chiangmaikelly

[farang000999]

Anyone who has ever read an intro to macroeconomics textbook knows that 0% or .5% unemployment is impossible and illogical.

Edited October 23, 2012 by farang000999

[n0mad]

No I said Thailand had a 0% unemployment rate.

I don't know if 29% is accurate. Take it up with the Bank of Thailand.

I think the rest of your post is based on Thailand being like you wrote, "just like all those greeks, Americans, English, Spanish."

I think you mean the PIGS. Do I think Thailand is like the PIGS? NO I don't and no one else does either.

Firstly, i did not write Thailand is like all those greeks, Americans, English, Spanish i said you are. They all thought everything was rosy and there were no asset bubbles just like you. They all thought they were different just like you.

Secondly, its PIIGS not Pigs and America and England do not fall under them so not sure where you got that question from or who you are answering.

thirdly, you cannot say the information you are quoting is true yet you're happy to use it to back up your premise even though it doesn't make any sense. sometimes you need to do more than skim the information but actually analyse it to confirm its validity. Governments can print what ever they want, doesn't mean you should take it at that as if the numbers don't serve their purpose what's to stop them printing other stuff to fool the average joe?

finally, that unemployment number isn't possible as there is always someone looking for a Job you can't have perfect employment where someone get fired and finds a Job in the same day.

Edited October 23, 2012 by n0mad

[pigeonjake]

you will never have 0% unemploymeny,,,,,

first what about the people who are unable to work,? in valids/ sick

second, the ladys who are having babys??

no one can say that there isnt unemployment in thailand,

it only looks like this becouse,, in the west when unemployed people go and sign on, they dont here,

i would be supprised if thailand new how many people were in thailand never mind how many was out of work!

[n0mad]

you will never have 0% unemploymeny,,,,,

first what about the people who are unable to work,? in valids/ sick

second, the ladys who are having babys??

no one can say that there isnt unemployment in thailand,

it only looks like this becouse,, in the west when unemployed people go and sign on, they dont here,

i would be supprised if thailand new how many people were in thailand never mind how many was out of work!

Actually, when they measure unemployment they remove any person who isn't actively looking for employment such as those you mentioned. It's a very well debated topic as when unemployment is very bad often people give up looking for work and are then removed from the stats making the figure look lower than it really is.

[TommoPhysicist]

Definition of 'unemployed'

Those able-bodied people who want to work but can't find an employer.

So

Sick people and ladies having babies are not unemployed.