Thailand In Crisis: At Least One Person Becomes H I V-Positive Every Hour

[DiamondKing]

Makes you wonder what percentage of sex tourists take home a little extra after spending time with bargirls. One very good reason I won't be seen dead in the same room as a bargirl so to speak. I value my quality of life far to much.

I've slept with hundreds of bargirls here in SEA. At least half with no condoms. Last tests came back negative. That's all I know. Seems like this HIV disease is pretty hard to get or I would have gotten it.

And I know multiple other friends who do the exact same by having sex with bargirls some have been here close to 10 years and they are also clean and get regular checks so now we have a whole bunch of guys like meatballs who shag everything and many times without condoms and they are clean when the reality is if it was so prevalent they for sure would be in the highest risks and the fact is they have not caught anything in all those hundreds of women that they have tagged. however I also know of one guy who is HIV positive and caught it off his wife of 4 years then there is another case of a farang who married a thai and off they went to the USA where they lived happily for 6 years only for him to finally catch HIV after 5 years and it turned out she was infected when she met him but unlike in Thailand where she would be free she is now serving a sentence for knowingly infecting him in the US.

So I am another one who thinks based on my own experiences and research is its extremely hard for a straight person to catch HIV unless you are a Homosexual Gay Guy or a Bisexual Guy who has butt sex with guys or a drug user that shares needles since those are massive majority of cases.

DK

Edited November 30, 2012 by DiamondKing

[DiamondKing]

Wow one every hours !!! That is 12 people every day or 4380 a year, and they call that an epidemic !!!! As a ratio of a Thai population of about 60 million, that is then 60,000,000 / 4380 or a 1 in 13698 chance of any one person catching it each year (and remember the population changes with births and deaths each year too). Hardly an epidemic surely. Also those that do catch HIV generally take far more risks than most of us (and no I do not just mean unprotected normal heterosexual sex) so a normal persons chance of catching HIV is extremely low and in fact far less than getting killed or maimed crossing a busy street here in Thailand or say riding a motorbike here.

Remember that the figure of one every hour is still massively a statistic that is biased heavily to gay sex and intravenous drug users. No I do not have the figures to hand so don't ask, nor the time to look it up to back that statement up, but I am pretty sure that is the case, so feel free to Google some hard facts from an objective and sensible site (no not say the highly biased and restrictive catholic church science laboratory site or whatever). So should we stop crossing the road or stop riding motorbikes which are far far more dangerous to our health, as well as stop unprotected normal hetero sex?? Sure if you do engage in gay sex or even hetero anal sex or inject drugs then sure you should really change your lifestyle and at least ensure you then take protection if you care about yourself. As for the majority of us then take care for sure but do not be frightened into not being able to have an enjoyable fulfilling sex life if say you are one of those who truly cannot use condoms. But scare mongering of a virus that is extremely very difficult to catch and highly unlikely for a normal person to catch should be considered in true honest perspective and not blown out of all reasonable proportions. So just use your head and if you can avoid taking unnecessary high risks of course.

Sure I know every case of HIV is a personal disaster and extremely sad for the poor souls who catch it, and indeed nobody deserves to catch such an infection, even a drug addict for goodness sake as they are still frail human beings like the rest of us. Be great when there is a vaccine against it that we can all get cheaply and of course when there is a total and affordable cure. No I am not advocating an orgy of unprotected sex (fun though that must be !!), but conversely if you are sensible and careful about your partners and like many who find protected sex unfulfilling or even impossible then this is no reason to lower your and your partners' enjoyment of pleasurable sex life. So if sex with a condom is perfectly okay for you and workable, then sure carry on using them as it makes perfect sense of course. However if you are like many and just cannot use condoms with any success then just be careful and use your head and either lead a life of abstinence from more than one partner sex or know and keep the level of risk to a very low and tolerably acceptable level for you and your partners.. If you do take even such a very very low risk then it is still of course possible to get infected, just always be aware of that but keep it in factual perspective and be aware that you should be far more concerned and put far more priority into carefully crossing the road or riding a motorbike here. Far far more risk of sexually transmitted Hepatitis than HIV too, but you CAN at least sensibly get vaccinated against that.

I heard from a knowledgeable STD senior doctor some 10 years ago that statistically if you had totally unprotected normal genital sex with a fully blown AIDS victim, it is so hard to get infected from normal hetero sex that it would take having such sex 1000 times on average for a male to catch HIV from such an infected woman or 500 times for a woman to catch it off of a fully infected male AIDS victim. But he responsibly added that it is purely a statistical average and it could happen the very first time of course, though you would or should generally know from all external signs if a person has full blown AIDS or not. If they have only HIV at that stage of their illness then you may not know that for sure, but then again the chances of getting infected from them with normal unprotected sex is then massively decreased to a much less than the average stated of once every 1000 (or 500) times.

So please no silly flaming as I am not being irresponsible or selfish or even stupid but just trying to present the facts in a completely open minded and honest way from all I have learned and deducted about this subject (though by no means an expert of course), and to try to put things into a less media sensationalistic perspective.. Sure HIV is a real factual problem and not a myth and something we should all be fully aware of and make our decisions accordingly and responsibly. But it is not anything like an epidemic as is sensationally claimed, even in Thailand, and indeed the published figures themselves do not add up to it being so. Sure even 1 person infected in a year is one too many of course and an intolerable disaster for that person's life. Positive feedback and factual comments to add to our communal real knowledge are welcomed,of course, but crappy self opinionated flaming will, as it should, just be rightfully ignored as always. This is NOT about morals and religions and myths but about facts and truth so lets sensibly keep it that way.

Finally. remember it is down to each person whether or not to take risks, and only for others to educate them on the unexaggerated true risks, not the over sensationalist rhetoric that we all have to endure, It takes both partners (or maybe more individuals if you like more adventurous sex ) to agree willingly to have unprotected sex, so it is entirely up to them to know and accept the risks. if you personally want to be remain virtually 100% safe and sure then that is rightfully down to you to decide to always use good protection, like a condom, and never have unprotected sex. That is your decision and yours alone to make such a judgement call, or not of course.

AGREE COMPLETELY and exactly what I have researched and have come to the same conclusion

[oldthaihand99]

44 per cent of every 100,000 Thais were infected with sexually transmitted diseases, compared to 29 per cent in 2007

What the hell kind of statistic is that? This surely has to be "has been". 44% percent of the population is currently infected with an STD of some sort? This cannot be correct. 44 per hundred thousand?

It could be correct.

Consider that in the USA 25% of adults are infected with incurable genital herpes.

And that is only one STD, so does not take into account the dozens of others.

Amongst African American adults the genital herpes rate has been listed beyond 45%.

Amongst prostitutes with the disease you are looking at 60% and up, depending on the country.

"...estimates of HSV-2 infectivity in Thailand are higher than observed in other Eastern Asian countries; total HSV-2 seroprevalence is approximately 37% in this country.^[5]"

^{http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_herpes_simplex}

Edited November 30, 2012 by oldthaihand99

[oldthaihand99]

Makes you wonder what percentage of sex tourists take home a little extra after spending time with bargirls. One very good reason I won't be seen dead in the same room as a bargirl so to speak. I value my quality of life far to much.

I've slept with hundreds of bargirls here in SEA. At least half with no condoms. Last tests came back negative. That's all I know. Seems like this HIV disease is pretty hard to get or I would have gotten it.

If the chances of a HIV infection are 1 in 1000 sex acts with an HIV infected individual, then it is probable you could have many hundreds or even thousands of sessions and not become infected.

After all, the vast majority of your partners would have been HIV negative, which means there was absolutely no risk of you becoming HIV infected in those cases.

Moreover, your risk could be further reduced, and approach close to zero, if you have a degree of HIV immunity or any HIV positive partners would have had an undetectible viral load due to being on HIV meds. Being circumcised or your partners having recently tested negative for HIV would be other examples of excellent risk reducing (i.e. safe sex) factors.

OTOH your HIV risk could become higher in certain circumstances, e.g. if other STIs or genital sores are present, which are more likely to occur with Thai prostitutes who have multiple customers day after day & year after year. If they are not using the condom with you then they have probably done the same with another customer or BF.

Bottom line. You've been lucky so far, but the numbers will probably catch up to you, sooner or later, if you continue with unsafe sex.

Edited November 30, 2012 by oldthaihand99

[JimmyTheMook]

Being circumcised or your partners having recently tested negative for HIV would be other examples of excellent risk reducing (i.e. safe sex) factors.

Interesting point as when figures from Africa are studied where huge portions of the population are HIV+ the bulk are from Sub Saharan area where the men tend not to be cut.

[finnomick1]

' Many parents and teachers think it is inappropriate or embarrassing for young girls to carry condoms ' but it's OK for them to get pregnant ? Not inappropriate or embarrassing at all.....

[geriatrickid]

The use of ratios such as 1/1000 becoming infected creates a sense of false security. The reason is very simple: This ratio takes into account the ENTIRE population pool. I could just as easily say, the likelihood of a 65 year old female in a 30 year monogamous relationship becoming seropositive from sex is 0. It means nothing. What matters is the actual at risk population group. Sex trade workers are a high risk group. The likelihood of contracting HIV is therefore going to be elevated if one draws his/her sex partners from that group. If the population group has a 25% infection rate then you don't need to be a math whiz to understand the ramifications. Let me put it this way, if you swim in the Pating Centara Hotel pool, the chances of ingesting active fecal material is low. Swim in Patong Bay and it is much higher, and if you fall into a Patong klong, then it is extremely high. Where do you want to go swimming?.

Edited November 30, 2012 by geriatrickid

[rayw]

Not sure what planet you are on but on Earth there are 24 hours in a day. So 24 hours x 365 days = 8760 per year.

Yes indeed my bad so thanks for picking that up as it was certainly not intentional on my part, but I think I am still an Earthling . Maths and arithmetic are my strong points so that was a serious inexcusable error on my part. Maybe I was thinking of 12 hours in a Day related to daylight hours duh !!. Of course you have to double my miscalculated figures to as you say 8360 per year which within the Thai population is a 1 in 6849 chance so still slim odds but significantly higher that what I stated. Sorry for the careless error.

Either way hardly an epidemic as would expect more like 500 times that number at least to be even remotely considered as an epidemic. Take flu outbreaks not they affect more like a 1000 every hour at least in Thailand I am sure, and that is what can be called an epidemic. Anyway this virus still needs killing off and reliable vaccinations found so we can all go back to fearlessly enjoying our sex lives as we surely should be doing and stopping the terrible suffering of those that are sadly infected.

Thanks for all the Like My Posts I have had, It does make sense to many at least, but none of that makes the problem go away just puts it more in a true perspective.

[Thai at Heart]

The use of ratios such as 1/1000 becoming infected creates a sense of false security. The reason is very simple: This ratio takes into account the ENTIRE population pool. I could just as easily say, the likelihood of a 65 year old female in a 30 year monogamous relationship becoming seropositive from sex is 0. It means nothing. What matters is the actual at risk population group. Sex trade workers are a high risk group. The likelihood of contracting HIV is therefore going to be elevated if one draws his/her sex partners from that group. If the population group has a 25% infection rate then you don't need to be a math whiz to understand the ramifications. Let me put it this way, if you swim in the Pating Centara Hotel pool, the chances of ingesting active fecal material is low. Swim in Patong Bay and it is much higher, and if you fall into a Patong klong, then it is extremely high. Where do you want to go swimming?.

They dare not publish the figures for sex workers in pattaya, as i wrote earlier.

Even a 10 year old can do the maths.

It is quite tragic.

[beowolf2012]

something is wrong. Thai goverment live in old days and thinking it's batly to inform Thai city cent about sex. Then i meen inform people over television with comercial.

If HIV - AIDS have to stop there most too be more control over it.

There need some more information.

[oldthaihand99]

The use of ratios such as 1/1000 becoming infected creates a sense of false security. The reason is very simple: This ratio takes into account the ENTIRE population pool. I could just as easily say, the likelihood of a 65 year old female in a 30 year monogamous relationship becoming seropositive from sex is 0. It means nothing. What matters is the actual at risk population group. Sex trade workers are a high risk group. The likelihood of contracting HIV is therefore going to be elevated if one draws his/her sex partners from that group. If the population group has a 25% infection rate then you don't need to be a math whiz to understand the ramifications. Let me put it this way, if you swim in the Pating Centara Hotel pool, the chances of ingesting active fecal material is low. Swim in Patong Bay and it is much higher, and if you fall into a Patong klong, then it is extremely high. Where do you want to go swimming?.

The ratio of 1 in 1000 does NOT "take into account the entire population". The basis of this figure is a number of studies including one HIV positive partner, in a relationship with the other HIV negative partner, in the Western world, under medical care, having vaginal sex.

Sometimes doctors refer to this figure to calm those who are anxious about the chance of having acquired HIV when a condom broke or was not used in a moment of passion, etc. The doctors are not creating a "false sense of security".

Those who are in monogamous relationships are in a group that is considered to be safer than those who are having casual sex with multiple partners, so it means something in the sense that it is a safe sex factor or risk reducing measure. If it is combined with being HIV free in advance & faithfullness, it is a virtual guarantee of not becoming infected with HIV via sex.

Having sex with sex trade workers is generally considered high risk sex relative to the general population since prostitutes usually have many partners in the sack. Whereas much of the general population is either abstaining from sex or in faithful monogamous relationships.

Rates of HIV infection amongst hookers vary widely depending on the sub-group. You'll find 2 figure percentages among male sex workers in parts of Thailand. Amongst female "ladies of the night" working in venues a recent study estimated the national rate to be about 1.8%, not much higher than the countries general population figure.

[geriatrickid]

The ratio of 1 in 1000 does NOT "take into account the entire population". The basis of this figure is a number of studies including one HIV positive partner, in a relationship with the other HIV negative partner, in the Western world, under medical care, having vaginal sex.

Would you please give me a citation so I can educate myself.

Apparently, I need to "unlearn" some of the stuff they taught me in Epidemiology 522

Thank you.

[oldthaihand99]

The ratio of 1 in 1000 does NOT "take into account the entire population". The basis of this figure is a number of studies including one HIV positive partner, in a relationship with the other HIV negative partner, in the Western world, under medical care, having vaginal sex.

Would you please give me a citation so I can educate myself.

Apparently, I need to "unlearn" some of the stuff they taught me in Epidemiology 522

Thank you.

I could cite a number of studies that i've referenced here before, but the following is what Sheryl, the TV health nurse, opined at post 96 of the following link:

"The whole "1/2,000" or 1 in whatever discussion stems back to a very small number of studies done in the West of mongamous couples in which one partner was known to be HIV positive, one was negative, and of their own accord they chose not to use condoms or used them inconsistently. The HIV infected female partners in these cases were all under medical care and thus had lower viral loads and much fewer untreated genital lesions etc than would be true among HIV infected women as a whole and most cretainly than would be true among HIV infected sex workers in SE Asia. To apply the findings of those few studies (sample size of which was very small) to anything other than the population that they studied -- transmission between spouses in the West when the HIV infected partner was under medical care -- is invalid."

http://www.thaivisa....am/page__st__75

Edited December 1, 2012 by oldthaihand99

[crazydrummerpauly]

The above makes no sense. One every hour but only 533 new cases so far this year?

"In 2011, studies showed that 44 per cent of every 100,000 Thais were infected with sexually transmitted diseases, compared to 29 per cent in 2007" What the heck is this supposed to mean?

It means in 2011 44% of thais have stds. In 2007 it was 29%

Uh ? At a population of just under 70 Million, 44% would come out at approx. 28,000,000 (million) people with one or more STDs - UH ? Gotta laugh.

[crazydrummerpauly]

All comments bemoaning the absence of sex-education in all Thai schools are just factually incorrect. My other half has been teaching sex-education in a government school in Isaan for over a year.

[bangkokburning]

Been here long enough to know this:

Smart guys = married

Dumb guys = dead

Just a matter of time before your number is up. Especially if you are a gay. You think an infected hooker cares about your health? It is to laugh.

And yes, I - a confirned bachelor feel so strongly about what I have witnessed and read in my time her that I am now married.

And the really sick thing is I have heard many old men say - what do I care, I'm going to live healthy for five more years, take meds five more and by thenbe dead anyway.

Anyone having sex without a condom I consider to be positive. There are boatloads of guys still at it.

Semi-pro porn filmed here in Thailand and I am told after ranting at a friend about HIV here says iys all sans condom.

No one checks and no one cares.

Thats just the farang end of it. Then you have the Thai's....

Ive always said the real numbers are pandemic.

[DocN]

All comments bemoaning the absence of sex-education in all Thai schools are just factually incorrect. My other half has been teaching sex-education in a government school in Isaan for over a year.

She has either done not very well...or I would like to see exactly what she has been teaching.

Seriously, I am not meaning to put your better half down, but I have a (maybe incorrect) idea, about what is on the curriculum, but would be very happy to see my ideas proven wrong.

[Ragzilb]

Too many things dont add up in this article, we all know that all children at the age of 12 still sleep with their mothers and fathers. This person must be trying to make Thailand look bad...

[matt helm]

Makes you wonder what percentage of sex tourists take home a little extra after spending time with bargirls. One very good reason I won't be seen dead in the same room as a bargirl so to speak. I value my quality of life far to much.

I've slept with hundreds of bargirls here in SEA. At least half with no condoms. Last tests came back negative. That's all I know. Seems like this HIV disease is pretty hard to get or I would have gotten it.

Have you been tested for any other STD besides HIV?

[personchester]

something is wrong. Thai goverment live in old days and thinking it's batly to inform Thai city cent about sex. Then i meen inform people over television with comercial.

If HIV - AIDS have to stop there most too be more control over it.

There need some more information.

Hi beowolf 2012 ... The "photo symbol" you selected is the same as mine, that is not very good, please try and select another logo photo, it would be much better because it would keep our images apart.

[wellred]

Do the studies show what % of the infected population are involved in P4P? I think they should enforce a rule where by some of the bar fine is to be used on weekly STD testing. Might help.

[saudade53]

Probably is right. Since I move to Thailand in 2010 I had sex with 20 "decent" mid age divorced women...I protected myself everytime....but of the 20 only one asked for me to use it....They were divorced because their husbands likes prostitutes...but...they never used protection with their husbands...because their husbands do not like to use it....Got it?....Welcome to Thailand!...Have fun!...and die...

[linno2]

from the most recent UNAIDS Thailand report...

( Status of the Epidemic

The spread of HIV in Thailand continues after the first diagnosed case nearly 30 years ago. From the first AIDS case report in 1984, the main driving force of the epidemic has been unsafe sex, and this has disproportionately affected women and men of reproductive age. Even though Thailand has had a National Strategic Plan since 1992 which helped the country succeed in rapidly slowing the spread of the virus during the decade that followed, HIV continued to spread during the first decade of the new millennium among the general population, with troubling trends in the key affected populations, including female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID).

Despite the stable and slightly declining trend of HIV prevalence among pregnant women aged 15

‐24 years and male military recruits aged 20 ‐24 years, the risk behavior data in youth which reported an increase in sex‐partner mixing without condom use could be contributing to the increased risk for STIs and unwanted pregnancy. The age distribution of STI patients in which the highest number of cases was in the 15‐24 year age group, and the number of teenage deliveries per 1000 girls aged 15‐19 years had increased from 33.7 in 1989 to 50.1 in 2010.

Among the higher risk groups, the trend of HIV prevalence during the past few years remained stable at around 2% for venue based FSW. The recent evidence from prevalence surveys among non venue

‐based FSW revealed higher HIV prevalence than venue‐based FSW. This is especially worrisome since proportionally more of the non venue‐ based FSW are outside of the formal HIV prevention program than the venue‐ based FSW, and may not be receiving the same level of care and information about prevention of HIV and STIs.

The rapid spread of HIV among MSM has been observed from IBBS in 3 big tourist cities. In a 2010 survey, HIV infection among MSM remained high in Bangkok (31.3%). Lower prevalence was observed in Chiangmai and Phuket. HIV prevalence among MSM aged less than 25 years was at 12.1%. The trend of HIV prevalence among Transgenders was lower than MSM (around 10% in 2010), but the trend did not decline over the past years. Alike, the trend of HIV prevalence among MSW in the sentinel sites did not decline and was still high at 16% in 2010.

The prevalence of HIV among PWID attending detoxification centers is still high, at levels of 30% to 40%. The IBBS conducted in 2010, using respondent driven sampling (RDS) which represents PWID in communities, documented HIV prevalence among PWID at 21.9%.

The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) and policy analysis were used to estimate new HIV infections as well as number of PLHIV for the purpose of planning for the ART program. It is estimated that 43,040 new infections will occur during 2012

‐2016. Among the estimated number of new infections, 62% will be through transmission among MSM, FSW and their clients and PWID; 32% will be through intimate partners and 6% through casual sex.

In sum, the epidemiological and behavioral data indicate that the number of new HIV infections in Thailand continues among key affected populations including MSM, FSW and PWID as well as certain subgroups of general population.

[bangkokburning]

If you are not having unprotected sex, the person you are screwing is and if they are not then surely the person they sleep with is.

I also totally agree that any stat that takes into account entire population is wildly unreprentitive. Should be looking at ages 15-65. I state the high end because I am sure there are lots of old men carriers. HIV pos cause they dont like condoms, cant get it up with one and think <deleted> - Im dying anyway.

I think the rate for Chlamydia is hookers is about 90%. Perhaps same with genital herpes.

Not be at all suprised if HIV rates among Thai sex workers is 25-30%. Perhaps as high as +20 with sex work assoc with farang (clubs). Streetwalkers +60.

[linno2]

Considering the reported UNAIDS rates of young people involved in sex in Thailand (similar biology in most of the world) and the school based sex education being 'hit and miss', does anyone know of informative sex education publications suitable for young Thais? I have a 15 year old and want to make sure she has all the information she needs to make fully informed choices. I know of many young people in my district that have an unplanned, earlier than wanted baby. I gave our sons the information and condoms a few years back and made sure they understood the risks, choices and responsibilities. My wife was really supportive and acknowledges the benefits. However whilst she knows that our daughter needs the equivalent she is not quite able to get around to it beyond vague references. Of course this is not a surprise and is a common issue for parents globally. In Australia there are some very good books written by girls that did get pregnant when they were still at school - telling their story fully and frankly in terms that their peers can understand. Would be good to know if similar existed in Thailand and would appreciate any references. If not - there is an opportunity for a publisher to make a contribution - perhaps through a Thai visa teenage forum?

[culicine]

'They wont even allow us to install a condom vending machine out of embarrassment '. Says it all really; Face, Mai pen rai, heads stuck firmly and deeply in the sand, worry about it after it's happened etc, etc, etc.

Really no condom vending machines, geez stand at the front counter of any 7 eleven and what do you see? Condoms in easy reach and view of children. Seems a little weird if they can do this but have vending machines in places like bars and toilets is wrong, oh well thai logic I guess.

You never know...some of those 7-11 girls are pretty hot

[linno2]

All comments bemoaning the absence of sex-education in all Thai schools are just factually incorrect. My other half has been teaching sex-education in a government school in Isaan for over a year.

I agree that sex education is taught in schools here in Isaan - but from discussions with our local teachers, they tell me that the way it is taught by some of their peers is not effective. They said that many of them did not feel comfortable teaching sex education and felt they did not have the skills to manage such classes with teenagers. A further problem was that some parents approached them complaining about the material and insisting that it was "bad" and "should not be covered in schoo"l. I know that teaching sex education is a universal problem with lots of challenges. I wish my daughter was being taught this subject by your wife as it sounds like she has a good teaching approach.

[geriatrickid]

The ratio of 1 in 1000 does NOT "take into account the entire population". The basis of this figure is a number of studies including one HIV positive partner, in a relationship with the other HIV negative partner, in the Western world, under medical care, having vaginal sex.

Would you please give me a citation so I can educate myself.

Apparently, I need to "unlearn" some of the stuff they taught me in Epidemiology 522

Thank you.

I could cite a number of studies that i've referenced here before, but the following is what Sheryl, the TV health nurse, opined at post 96 of the following link:

"The whole "1/2,000" or 1 in whatever discussion stems back to a very small number of studies done in the West of mongamous couples in which one partner was known to be HIV positive, one was negative, and of their own accord they chose not to use condoms or used them inconsistently. The HIV infected female partners in these cases were all under medical care and thus had lower viral loads and much fewer untreated genital lesions etc than would be true among HIV infected women as a whole and most cretainly than would be true among HIV infected sex workers in SE Asia. To apply the findings of those few studies (sample size of which was very small) to anything other than the population that they studied -- transmission between spouses in the West when the HIV infected partner was under medical care -- is invalid."

http://www.thaivisa....am/page__st__75

Then please cite the clinical studies.

What you are refering to does not support your statement. It is a tangent.

Viruses, bacteria and other beasties do not demonstrate consistent infection probabilities because of their individual characteristics. One can make general estimates. This means that if we distribute the infections along a number line, we will see vaiability with some being more likely to cause an infection, while others are less likely to cause an infection. Another major factor is the host. It is an accepted fact that someone with a weaker immune system is more at risk. This is why probablilities have acknowledged confidence levels. When epidemiologists gather field data, they either conduct a general population review, or they focus on at risk groups. Conclusions drawn from the data are directly related to the data pool and coefficient of confidence that is used. Do you really want to get into a discussion of population statistics and the role of standard deviations and confidence intervals?

Now, if you look at HIV-1, there's something like a dozen sub types. And of these subtypes there are additional subtypes of the subtypes. Today, it is not uncommon to come across patients with coinfections caused by two or more HIV-1 strains of distinct subtypes. If one then throws into the mix those patients that have drug resistant infections, the potential for super carriers exists.

[Hugo6]

at least one person becomes HIV-positive every hour

that

is

amazing

[lifeisadream]

Finally, for those of you who have been overdosed by numbers thrown around here, all that can end with an accurate and true understanding of the so-called AIDS epidemic.

I have been reading news on this forum for years. Though I’ve felt the desire to communicate some critical information concerning this topic, I never felt there were enough open or skeptical (of the party line) readers, who could suspend their beliefs long enough to digest what I intended to write. This time around things feel different. Some people have noticed that the numbers don't add up. Many participants have statistics and many statistical tables to back up the conventional medical ruse confirming that (non-monogamous) sexual intercourse is an activity which is certain to end in AIDS.

How many people have contemplated the AIDS story that bgean with some tribal African and a monkey? That story is crazier than the tooth fairy and Santa Claus myth wrapped together. Goebbels has been linked to the famous quote, "When you tell a lie, tell a big one, and then reinforce it often." The whole "medical" drama concerning AIDS is almost totally fabrication. This virus is transmitted through blood. Without blood there can be no transmission. AIDS is transmitted via needles, blood donors, and mother-to-baby. It is almost impossible to be infected from unprotected sex. Unprotected sex is about happiness. Protected sex is about the AIDS industry and another aspect of conventional societies to limit happiness. The objective is to generate enough fear that the AIDS industry can continue to thrive…at your emotional and financial expense.

Consider this, in commercial sex situations how many condoms break? How many slip off or applied incorrectly? Where are the AIDS patients that result from this situation? Ask your wife if she knows anyone from her village that died of AIDS (excluding drug users). Where are these millions of infected people? There are not in the hospitals nor in the Wats…that population is minuscule. Some readers suggest that there of millions of invisible, yet to be detected, carriers. They say millions have the virus but don't know that they do. Utter hogwash. The whole scam is intended to sell more condoms, plastic gloves, throw away needles, etc. A multi-billion pound industry. Go visit a Wat or hospital with AIDS patients...there are more people in bowling alleys than in these centers. And it’s not because infected people don’t recognize the situation, it’s because it’s a lie that is continually being reinforced by public relations companies with huge budgets. Don't believe in this cocamammy story and you will find you won't be prey to believing that Saddam had WMD’s, Kennedy was killed by a lone gunman, SARS is a really potent killer, etc. And a bunch of other fabricated pieces of propaganda.

M. Bauman

In four years this is my first post.