Apple Outlook Looks Dismal: Shares Hammered - Cuts Orders By 50%

[lomatopo]

Well it's honestly hard to call the dip from ~ $700 in mid-Sep to $500 BS, but maybe easier to blame it on those lurking in the shadows and under your bed.

That dip started long before any negative rumors about potential cuts in component supplies, or slowing down of display manufacturing. In addition to the profit taking I've mentioned a few times there certainly is a concern in both the strength of the lower margin miniPad displacing maxiPad sales, and the potential saturation of the market for the iPhone 5. Handset subsidization in some markets, especially the U.S., has certainly meant that the addressable market is both huge and less concerned with the actual unit price, and service providers can take the loss on the handset in return for high ARPU/low churn customers. However, in many markets - I am not familiar with the Chinese mobile market at all - there is very little handset subsidization, and perhaps limited market potential for a $699/22,500 THB handset? So now there is some pressure to create a lower priced, and lower margin handset.

Again, the majority of AAPL analysts, and it may well be the most covered stock, remain bullish with strong buys and and average year-end price target of $700. There is no doubt the Q1 numbers will be positive, but we do need to see the company's guidance for the traditionally soft Q2, and beyond.

[nikster]

It's not the dip it's the fact that it ended the day at exactly $500.

Do you believe in the tooth fairy and Santa Claus? You keep talking this and that about how the company is doing. That's great and we can agree or disagree. But just let's agree that the stock price has nothing to do with that. The stock is driven by the needs of large investors. Did you watch the Cramer video above? Do you think he's just making this up? 'Cause I don't think he's got enough imagination to invent this out of thin air. This is pretty much exactly what's happened.

The now pretty much debunked rumor that started this thread is just part of the game.

Edited January 19, 2013 by nikster

[nikster]

This is actually a good explanation of why Apple would end up exactly at a strike price:

http://www.thestreet...nipulation.html

It's a "conspiracy theory" the way I like it and the way I believe most such things come about - not collusion of a few but rather stock market mechanics of popular trading strategies which end up having the exact same effect. Players acting in their own interest creating a pattern. Since it's a pattern I guess there is no trading strategy that wins every time a stock gets pinned at an options strike price.... 'cause otherwise others would want to run that strategy which would prevent the pattern.

IMO the stock market is similar to poker. It's not without rules, but it's so far removed from the actual business that it might as well get played out in a Casino.

Edited January 19, 2013 by nikster

[nikster]

Since there's so much crap being written about Apple online, I like a bit of a counterpoint

This article is a bit of an outrage, like anything the author writes, but there's nuggets of truth in it.

After all, everyone knows that once a cheaper copycat comes out, nobody buys the original anymore. This happened to Coca Cola and then Red Bull, Kleenex, every luxury car maker, every fashion designer who was upstaged by the appearance of low cost apparel at WalMart, and really every other global brand that faces any sort of competition from knock-offs of any kind. Like the iPod."

And on Apple not having any new revolutionary new products:

But let’s step back from just talking about Apple. Let’s look at other companies that enjoyed a decade and a half of blockbuster success in the tech industry, say Microsoft and Intel. How many entirely new products did they push out every year to keep in the lead?

http://www.roughlydr...et-at-earnings/

Edited January 23, 2013 by nikster

[lomatopo]

Apple announces earnings, misses revenue and sales targets, profits flat, stock looks to slide another 10% (after hours from $514 to $463). Outlook: dismal.

Apple quarterly results reinforce fears that iPhone appeal is fading

Analysts say astonishing growth run may be over, with sales figures missing forecast and $13.1bn profits flat on previous year

Juliette Garside, telecoms correspondent

The Guardian, Thursday 24 January 2013

Shares in Apple dropped 10% following the announcement of the figures. Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Apple has jolted investors with lower than expected iPhone sales, underlining fears that the product which helped create the world's most valuable company may be losing its allure. In one of its most eagerly anticipated earnings updates of recent years, Apple reported no rise in profits and slightly missed revenue estimates, confirming Wall Street fears that its period of hyper-growth is coming to an end.

Apple sold 47.8m iPhones over the Christmas quarter, missing a forecast average of around 50m. Unusually for a company that has regularly outperformed analyst expectations, revenue growth of 18% year on year to $54.5bn was below the $54.9bn forecast, and profits were flat on the previous year at $13.1bn.

While momentum remained strong in the Americas with revenues up 15% to $20bn, there are signs that rival manufacturers such as Samsung may be gaining ground on Apple in recession-hit Europe with lower-priced handsets. Growth in Europe slowed from 55% last year to 11% in December. The news sent shares 10% lower to $461 in after-hours trading. Apple's stock has crashed by 30% since reaching its all-time peak of $705.07 in September, and last week fell below $500 for the first time in 11 months after reports that production of liquid crystal displays for its screens had been slashed for the beginning of this year after lower than expected demand.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2013/jan/24/apple-results-iphone-sales

[lomatopo]

Apple Earnings Analysis: Is the Future Being Mini-mized?

Highlights: All the numbers were pretty much inline, except for iPhone and Mac sales. Apple’s announcement that guidance going forward will be a “range of guidance that relfects our belief of what we are likely to achieve” suggests that the days of big earnings upside might be over. That said, the guidance for the coming quarter suggests growth over last year on the revenue side of up to 10%. Earnings per share seem to be headed down from the same quarter in 2012.

But with the call ended, I have a moment to compare the guidance vs. the year ago quarter. Let’s take a quick look at that, just using the midpoint of Apple’s figures for simplicity’s sake. Revenue: Guidance is $42 billion vs. $39.1 billion a year ago, an increase of 7%.

Gross margin: Apple forecasts 38%, down from the stunning 47.4% reported in April 2012!

Operating expenses: It cost Apple only $3.2 billion to do everything it does last year. That’s expected to rise to $3.85 billion this year. A jump in 20% is interesting, but probably not as telling as it seems. It’s also only 1.5% of revenues.

Add it all up and you get higher expenses, much lower gross margin and not enough revenue to keep earnings per share from falling. But that’s not especially worrisome. What seems to be worrisome is this: Last year’s second fiscal quarter for Apple was 35 million iPhones and 12 million iPads. Those numbers were down from the prior quarter, which includes the Christmas holiday, but not a ton. (37 million phones, 15.4 million iPads). Revenue last year went from $46B, to $39B as a result.

This year, Apple is coming off a $54.5B quarter and guiding to a $42 billion one. So instead of a 15% drop, Apple is looking for a 23% drop? If that’s really what the new guidance is telling us, earnings are headed down from a year ago. Why? It seems unlikely based on Apple’s comments much is wrong in the way of iPhone sales. They are likely to be down somewhat seasons if past patterns repeat.

Clearly, iPad is significantly more seasonal, but it’s also becoming a much less expensive product thanks to the popular Mini. If you compare to last year, iPad unit sales are up 50% in the holiday quarter. If you take them down sequentially by the 20% seen last year, you’d lose about 4.5 million units at $469 — a revenue shortfall of about $2 billion between the quarters. But if you also take down the average price another $25, you lose another $4.5 billion in revenue (over 18 million iPads).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markrogowsky/2013/01/23/apple-earnings-live-blog/

[jbrain]

Apple Earnings Analysis: Is the Future Being Mini-mized?

Highlights: All the numbers were pretty much inline, except for iPhone and Mac sales. Apple’s announcement that guidance going forward will be a “range of guidance that relfects our belief of what we are likely to achieve” suggests that the days of big earnings upside might be over. That said, the guidance for the coming quarter suggests growth over last year on the revenue side of up to 10%. Earnings per share seem to be headed down from the same quarter in 2012.

But with the call ended, I have a moment to compare the guidance vs. the year ago quarter. Let’s take a quick look at that, just using the midpoint of Apple’s figures for simplicity’s sake. Revenue: Guidance is $42 billion vs. $39.1 billion a year ago, an increase of 7%.

Gross margin: Apple forecasts 38%, down from the stunning 47.4% reported in April 2012!

Operating expenses: It cost Apple only $3.2 billion to do everything it does last year. That’s expected to rise to $3.85 billion this year. A jump in 20% is interesting, but probably not as telling as it seems. It’s also only 1.5% of revenues.

Add it all up and you get higher expenses, much lower gross margin and not enough revenue to keep earnings per share from falling. But that’s not especially worrisome. What seems to be worrisome is this: Last year’s second fiscal quarter for Apple was 35 million iPhones and 12 million iPads. Those numbers were down from the prior quarter, which includes the Christmas holiday, but not a ton. (37 million phones, 15.4 million iPads). Revenue last year went from $46B, to $39B as a result.

This year, Apple is coming off a $54.5B quarter and guiding to a $42 billion one. So instead of a 15% drop, Apple is looking for a 23% drop? If that’s really what the new guidance is telling us, earnings are headed down from a year ago. Why? It seems unlikely based on Apple’s comments much is wrong in the way of iPhone sales. They are likely to be down somewhat seasons if past patterns repeat.

Clearly, iPad is significantly more seasonal, but it’s also becoming a much less expensive product thanks to the popular Mini. If you compare to last year, iPad unit sales are up 50% in the holiday quarter. If you take them down sequentially by the 20% seen last year, you’d lose about 4.5 million units at $469 — a revenue shortfall of about $2 billion between the quarters. But if you also take down the average price another $25, you lose another $4.5 billion in revenue (over 18 million iPads).

http://www.forbes.co...ings-live-blog/

You remember my post dated 31-10-2012, which you ridiculed at that time ?

http://www.thaivisa....e/#entry5801458

In 1976 Steve Jobs created a wonderful and profitable company named Apple.

When he was ousted from the company in 1986 , the comapny declined at a very fast pace, which was only to be halted by taking Jobs back in anno 1997.

Last year Steve Jobs died, and look how fast the company goes into decline again. Only difference with 1986 is that Steve has departed to no return this time.

In fact it's only one of the reasons, another reason might be that people are realising that they can get a similar product at a fraction of the price, and which doesn't restrict them to use it the way THEY want, and not the way Apple wants.

It's not without reason that they call the rooting of an Apple product JAILBREAK.

I want to break free. ( Freddy Mercury )

Edited January 24, 2013 by jbrain

[lomatopo]

Apple Shuts Down Reality-Distortion Field on Earnings Forecasts

BY MARK MILIAN | JAN. 23, 2013 9:56 PM EST

Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer said changes to how it reports earnings forecasts are designed to increase transparency.

For 34 consecutive quarters beginning in April 2003, Apple easily beat analysts’ estimates on its earnings per share. Then on Oct. 18, 2011 — less than two months after Tim Cook took over as chief executive officer — Apple missed.

Cook’s record is 3-2 in the quarters since that whiff. The company reported earnings today for its first fiscal quarter of the year, barely beating estimates by 2 percent. The stock fell as much as 11 percent in late trading. Some may interpret this as a dynasty that’s peaked or a company that’s lost its way in the absence of its visionary co-founder, Steve Jobs. An alternate story line is that since Apple has been disclosing more to Wall Street analysts, they’ve finally found their way out of the reality-distortion field.

On today’s earnings call, Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer announced a change to how the company provides earnings forecasts. Instead of picking a single number that Apple always seemed to blow past, the company will report a range. Next quarter’s is $41 billion to $43 billion. This is part of a push to “increase transparency into our business,” Oppenheimer said. “Beginning this fiscal year, we are reorganizing the presentation of our results to provide greater transparency,” Oppenheimer said. “In recent years, our guidance reflected a conservative point estimate of results every quarter that we had reasonable confidence in achieving. Going forward, we plan to provide a range of guidance that reflects our belief of what we are likely to achieve.”

http://go.bloomberg.com/tech-blog/2013-01-23-apple-conservative-forecast/

[lomatopo]

Apple's Magic Wears Thin as Its Earnings Disappoint

TECHNOLOGY Updated January 23, 2013, 7:58 p.m. ET

Apple shares fell around 10% after the company posted flat earnings for its first fiscal quarter on Wednesday afternoon. MarketWatch's Dan Gallagher reports.

Apple Inc. AAPL +1.83% recorded a flat profit despite selling 18 million more iPhones and iPads, as it spent heavily to roll out new products to fend off intensifying competition. Spooked investors erased nearly $47 billion from the company's stock-market value in after-hours trading, about as much as the combined worth of Dell Inc., DELL -0.30% Nokia Corp. NOK1V.HE +1.99% and Research In Motion Ltd. RIM.T -2.48%

The flat earnings in the holiday quarter come after several years of supercharged growth that made Apple the most valuable U.S. company and fan worries about the Silicon Valley giant's momentum and demand for its new devices.

Apple executives predicted growth would continue to slow. The company expects revenue to rise about 7% in the current period after reporting an 18% gain in the holiday quarter.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324539304578260222730515836.html

[lomatopo]

Apple's iPhone disappointment fans doubt on growth

Apple results confirm fears

Wed, Jan 23 2013

By Poornima Gupta

SAN FRANCISCO | Wed Jan 23, 2013 11:30pm EST

(Reuters) - Apple Inc missed Wall Street's revenue forecast for the third straight quarter after iPhone sales came in below expectations, fanning fears that its dominance of consumer electronics is slipping.

Shares of the world's largest tech company fell 10 percent to $463 in after-hours trade, wiping out some $50 billion of its market value - nearly equivalent to that of Hewlett-Packard and Dell combined. On Wednesday, Apple said it shipped a record 47.8 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 29 percent from a year earlier. But that lagged the 50 million that analysts on average had projected. Expectations heading into the results had been subdued by news of possible production cutbacks by some component suppliers in Asia, triggering fears that demand for the iPhone, which accounts for half of Apple's revenue, and the iPad could be slowing.

But some investors clung to hopes for a repeat of years of historical outperformance, analysts said. "It's going to call into question Apple's dominance in the space. It's still one of the strong players, the others being Samsung and Google. It's still a two-horse race, but Android continues to grow rapidly," said Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/24/us-apple-results-idUSBRE90M1HD20130124

[lomatopo]

Apple's Q1 revenue grows, but Mac sales fall

IPhone and iPad sales grew

By Agam Shah

January 23, 2013 07:42 PM ET

IDG News Service - Apple's revenue grew but profit was flat in its first fiscal quarter of 2013, during which sales of iPhones and iPads rose, but Mac and iPod shipments dropped. Apple reported a net profit of $13.1 billion for the quarter ended Dec. 29, matching the profit reported in 2012's first fiscal quarter. Earnings per share were $13.81, which was higher than the consensus estimate of $13.47 from analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

The company reported revenue of $54.5 billion, up from $46.3 billion year on year.

Sales of Mac computers and iPods fell during the quarter. Mac sales totaled 4.1 million, dropping from 5.2 million. The fall in Mac shipments comes amid struggles in the personal computer market. Worldwide PC shipments fell by 6.4% during the fourth calendar quarter of 2012 compared to the same quarter in 2011, according to research firm IDC.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9236109/Apple_39_s_Q1_revenue_grows_but_Mac_sales_fall

[lomatopo]

Ouch. That'll leave a mark.

Apple price targets slashed after bubble bursts

Matt Krantz, USA TODAY5:39p.m. EST January 24, 2013

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

Earnings disappoint prompts analysts to cut price targets for Apple stock

It's a reversal from when Apple was peaking and analysts were boosting targets

Yet even now 46 of 53 analysts maintain 'buy' ratings

The favorite pastime of Apple analysts has turned into "how low can it go?"

Last year, Wall Street analysts loved Apple stock so much they raced to bump up price targets as shares surged to their $700 a share peak. But now with the stock in freefall, analysts can't seem to take their price targets down fast enough.

Following Apple's report of weaker-than-expected revenue and slackening demand for its gadgets as it loses the innovative edge, the shares collapsed $63.50, or 12%, to $450.50 Thursday. It's the latest in what's been a major deflation of a one-stock bubble, falling 36% from its high last September.

And analysts are now responding. "Things have changed," says Kim Caughey Forrest of Fort Pitt Capital Group. "This was a momentum stock."

http://www.usatoday.com/money/

[manarak]

It is not too difficult to see that Apple as a company has reached its peak in terms of profitability and market penetration.

Ipod, Iphone and Ipad gave Apple a head start, and the captive music and apps markets are a cash cow.

But the competition caught up and are now producing phones and tablets that are on par with Apple products, and with the (forced) adoption of HTML 5, Apple gets into a pitched battle with Microsoft and Samsung. So what now?

I expect in the next year(s) to hear more and more announcements that Apple invests in or takes over some other technology/internet companies, maybe even crazy things such as "Apple buys Facebook"...

It's no surprise that Apple won't be able to sustain growth and profitability forever.

In the meanwhile, I am still waiting on the "killerphone" for business:

- direct contacts, calendar and messages sync with any office suite on a computer, through a cable (no requirement of a google account)

- dual SIM and dual everything on the phone

- sync of SMS with the computer, enable SMS writing on the computer, sync SMS inbox with the computer

- simultaneous voice and data connection, easy tethering

- threaded SMS system that doesn't fail after a few thousand messages

etc.

and the phones are still awfully slow.

[lomatopo]

The New Tech Economy: Apple's dilemma in China, USA

John Shinal, Special for USA TODAY9:45p.m. EST January 27, 2013

Apple could face trying times in China

The mainstream smartphone market is changing, to Apple's chagrin

U.S. consumers who don't own iPhones won't pay more for latest features

SAN FRANCISCO — As the U.S. smartphone market matures and Apple pushes more deeply into the Chinese market looking for growth, its shareholders have learned that not every iPhone customer is worth the same to the company's bottom line.

When Apple's sales growth was being powered by iPhone and iPad buyers in North America, Europe and other developed markets, life for Apple shareholders was a never-ending party.

That's because rabid iPhone fans willing to wait in line for hours in New York, Tokyo or San Francisco to get the latest version of the device were also willing to pay whatever it took to get its newest, snazziest features.

Apple's ability to satisfy those early adopters, as well as the millions of other iPhone and iPad buyers in developed markets who bought in their wake, drove the company's stock price to $700, making it the world's most valuable company and making many investors rich.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/columnist/2013/01/27/apple-china-iphone-ipad/1862721/

[lomatopo]

Apple iPhone losing lustre in Asia's trend-setting cities; users now turn to Samsung

28 JAN, 2013, 04.01AM IST, REUTERS

SINGAPORE: Apple Inc's iconic iPhone is losing some of its lustre among Asia's well-heeled consumers in Singapore and Hong Kong, a victim of changing mobile habits and its own runaway success.

Driven by a combination of iPhone fatigue, a desire to be different and a plethora of competing devices, users are turning to other brands, notably those from Samsung Electronics Co Ltd , eating into Apple's market share.

In Singapore, Apple's products were so dominant in 2010 that more devices here ran its iOS operating system per capita than anywhere else in the world.

But StatCounter , which measures traffic collected across a network of 3 million websites, calculates that Apple's share of mobile devices in Singapore - iPad and iPhone - declined sharply last year. From a peak of 72 percent in January 2012, its share fell to 50 percent this month, while Android devices now account for 43 percent of the market, up from 20 percent in the same month last year.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/hardware/apple-iphone-losing-lustre-in-asias-trend-setting-cities-users-now-turn-to-samsung/articleshow/18214959.cms

[lomatopo]

Apple Cash Pile Sets Off a Battle

TECHNOLOGY Updated February 7, 2013, 8:22 p.m. ET

Apple Inc. AAPL +2.97% Chief Executive Tim Cook is facing a new reality: delivering steady results from one of the world's most valuable companies is no longer good enough. For nearly 18 months, Mr. Cook has kept a stream of new products rolling, produced a string of robust quarterly results and introduced a dividend and stock buyback expected to cost $45 billion over three years. But an attack from one of Apple's prominent investors underscores how that approach may not be enough anymore, especially amid intensifying industry competition and the company's slowing growth.

On Thursday, hedge fund manager David Einhorn sued Apple in a New York federal court in an effort to block an Apple shareholder proposal that he argues could limit how the company could return some of its $137 billion cash pile to investors. Apple is proposing to require a shareholder vote before it can issue preferred stock, a kind of security that Mr. Einhorn is urging the company to adopt. Apple's board already has the right to issue such shares, but said in a filing it doesn't intend to do so.

.

.

.

Apple's cash hoard, meanwhile, continues to grow rapidly. As of the end of December, the Cupertino, Calif., company's cash sat at $137.1 billion, up 68% from the end of fiscal 2011. More than two-thirds of that amount is held overseas.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324590904578290440984350234.html

[nikster]

They have way too much cash!!! SELL, SELL, SELL!!!