GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[yoshiwara]

Making predictions is easy. It is making decisions which is the tricky bit and whatever forecasts individuals (in a position to decide)make, their actions often belie what they are saying ie they confidently predict that sterling is going down while at the same time not acting on that prediction, namely continuing to hold their sterling.

[15Peter20]

I expected to see more gnashing of teeth this morning, perhaps it's still early yet, anyone care to wager where GBP will end the day?

As a self proclaimed amateur at this fx malarkey, I'll say in the range of 44.5 to 45.5. I'm of the opinion that the credit downgrading won't induce a crisis in its own right. Just the general trend downwards will continue.

[chiang mai]

Making predictions is easy. It is making decisions which is the tricky bit and whatever forecasts individuals (in a position to decide)make, their actions often belie what they are saying ie they confidently predict that sterling is going down while at the same time not acting on that prediction, namely continuing to hold their sterling.

And that might be OK for some, depending on circumstances. But I'm less interested in the phsycology of it all than I am in hearing/reading what people think.

[chiang mai]

I expected to see more gnashing of teeth this morning, perhaps it's still early yet, anyone care to wager where GBP will end the day?

As a self proclaimed amateur at this fx malarkey, I'll say in the range of 44.5 to 45.5. I'm of the opinion that the credit downgrading won't induce a crisis in its own right. Just the general trend downwards will continue.

I could agree with that, but GBP/USD is the one to watch if you want to understand where GBP/THB is headed.

[phutoie2]

http://www.xe.com/

Down to 1.5077 vs the USD (44.88 v THB) at the time of posting ... if only i'd waited another 2 days it'd be 200 pound more in my pocket.

Irony is i read many experts views on what would happen to the pound last week and not one was mentioning this! (though in hindsight it was obvious)

Yes this is the one to keep tabs on, GBP V USD, lots of gnashing of teeth in UK at rapidly rising fuel costs as its costing more to buy oil. Inflation, inflation.

Edited February 25, 2013 by phutoie2

[yoshiwara]

Making predictions is easy. It is making decisions which is the tricky bit and whatever forecasts individuals (in a position to decide)make, their actions often belie what they are saying ie they confidently predict that sterling is going down while at the same time not acting on that prediction, namely continuing to hold their sterling.

And that might be OK for some, depending on circumstances. But I'm less interested in the phsycology of it all than I am in hearing/reading what people think.

I recall a friend was absolutely convinced that there was going to be a second crash and the FTSE go down by 50%. 'Well then', I said, how come you haven't sold your shares in anticipation? 'Oh where else am I going to invest?' he burbled. 'What difference does it make?...You are going to double your share portfolio and if you are not doing this then your opinion is just so much hot air and should be discounted' He got very angry and I don't think I was ever forgiven.

[Denizen]

Making predictions is easy. It is making decisions which is the tricky bit and whatever forecasts individuals (in a position to decide)make, their actions often belie what they are saying ie they confidently predict that sterling is going down while at the same time not acting on that prediction, namely continuing to hold their sterling.

And that might be OK for some, depending on circumstances. But I'm less interested in the phsycology of it all than I am in hearing/reading what people think.

I recall a friend was absolutely convinced that there was going to be a second crash and the FTSE go down by 50%. 'Well then', I said, how come you haven't sold your shares in anticipation? 'Oh where else am I going to invest?' he burbled. 'What difference does it make?...You are going to double your share portfolio and if you are not doing this then your opinion is just so much hot air and should be discounted' He got very angry and I don't think I was ever forgiven.

Much of today's malaise can be laid at the feet of the Chancellor of the Exchequer and his predecessors who irrationally supported the GBP against downward pressure. The GBP could have declined gracefully and gradually instead of making a plop sound.

[chiang mai]

Making predictions is easy. It is making decisions which is the tricky bit and whatever forecasts individuals (in a position to decide)make, their actions often belie what they are saying ie they confidently predict that sterling is going down while at the same time not acting on that prediction, namely continuing to hold their sterling.

And that might be OK for some, depending on circumstances. But I'm less interested in the phsycology of it all than I am in hearing/reading what people think.

I recall a friend was absolutely convinced that there was going to be a second crash and the FTSE go down by 50%. 'Well then', I said, how come you haven't sold your shares in anticipation? 'Oh where else am I going to invest?' he burbled. 'What difference does it make?...You are going to double your share portfolio and if you are not doing this then your opinion is just so much hot air and should be discounted' He got very angry and I don't think I was ever forgiven.

I would guess that greater than 98% of people who are reading this thread and/or who have an interest in the subject matter, are normal everyday people who have never invested in any financial instrument before other than perhaps a mortgage, a life insurance policy and perhaps a fixed rate bond. People like that, people like me, we ask questions because we want to get a feel for what others think and perhaps amongst the replies will be something, a small gem, that will convince us that one way is better forward than another. So to admonish such people is rather unfair, just because you might be one of the 2% of the popultion who have 1) taken the time to learn about all aspects of investments and all that entails, and 2) you've understood it all, and 3) you've been able to adopt the necessary discpline. Of course, if you are not actually in the 2% and you're really in the 98% with the rest of us, that's a different story entirely!

[mccw]

Check out the last para of this article. First I heard of it.

Imagine quietc a few old timers might have a rather nasty surprise!

"

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-21553883

[chiang mai]

Check out the last para of this article. First I heard of it.

Imagine quietc a few old timers might have a rather nasty surprise!

"

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-21553883

I doubt it, as long as there's a single transaction in that fifteen years, the clock has to start again. Also, even though the account might be declared dormant, if the account owner surfaces again is say year sixteen, they regain rightful ownership of it, reagrdless of what the building society may have done in the meantime.

[mccw]

Check out the last para of this article. First I heard of it.

Imagine quietc a few old timers might have a rather nasty surprise!

"

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-21553883

I doubt it, as long as there's a single transaction in that fifteen years, the clock has to start again. Also, even though the account might be declared dormant, if the account owner surfaces again is say year sixteen, they regain rightful ownership of it, reagrdless of what the building society may have done in the meantime.

Really. I read it as the government basically takes ownership of it. But good to know they aren't ripping off granny

[fletchsmile]

http://www.xe.com/

Down to 1.5077 vs the USD (44.88 v THB) at the time of posting ... if only i'd waited another 2 days it'd be 200 pound more in my pocket.

Irony is i read many experts views on what would happen to the pound last week and not one was mentioning this! (though in hindsight it was obvious)

Of course as a Thai Visa reader that's where you had a competitive advantage...

Posted 2013-01-19 20:10:54. Post #29

My view is USD/THB will push towards 29. GBP will weaken vs USD and I wouldn't be surprised to see it push towards 1.50. With that in mind don't be surprised to see GBP/THB pushing towards 45. There'll of course be ups and downs along the way, but I see more chance of GBP/THB at 45 than GBP/THB 50.

...UK and US both have indulged in QE and increasing their money supplies. Both low interest rates look set to continue = unattractive currency. Both have(or had) their sovereign credit ratings under pressure... US seems a bit better placed than UK, and further along the curve - already downgraded....

Fletch

Edited February 25, 2013 by fletchsmile

[15Peter20]

http://www.xe.com/

Down to 1.5077 vs the USD (44.88 v THB) at the time of posting ... if only i'd waited another 2 days it'd be 200 pound more in my pocket.

Irony is i read many experts views on what would happen to the pound last week and not one was mentioning this! (though in hindsight it was obvious)

Of course as a Thai Visa reader that's where you had a competitive advantage...

>Posted 2013-01-19 20:10:54. Post #29

My view is USD/THB will push towards 29. GBP will weaken vs USD and I wouldn't be surprised to see it push towards 1.50. With that in mind don't be surprised to see GBP/THB pushing towards 45. There'll of course be ups and downs along the way, but I see more chance of GBP/THB at 45 than GBP/THB 50.

...UK and US both have indulged in QE and increasing their money supplies. Both low interest rates look set to continue = unattractive currency. Both have(or had) their sovereign credit ratings under pressure... US seems a bit better placed than UK, and further along the curve - already downgraded....

Fletch

Nice predication. Sadly for myself and others, the only error in your forecast was the bit that said there'd be ups and downs along the way. Still looking for an up that looks like it won't be coming, and I am openly and quite deliberately tempting fate to prove me wrong when I say that.

[chiang mai]

I though the day ended rather well, no significant movement really. But clearly the Daily Mail and others, wrote their copy 24 hours earlier and decided to run with it anyway, even if it was the opposite of what really happened!

[nong38]

I though the day ended rather well, no significant movement really. But clearly the Daily Mail and others, wrote their copy 24 hours earlier and decided to run with it anyway, even if it was the opposite of what really happened!

Yesterday's news after aday and everyone will have forgotten what was written and said.

We are, afterall, mere fortune tellers. Whether we like it or not the Banking system will not be allowed to colapse and countries will not be allowed to go bankrupt, if that were to happen then choas would rule and it does bear thinking about what would develop. Difficult though times are right now there will be a realignment, there will be peaks and troughs, judging those and making a decision is down to the individual. My time will be may/june if things looke promising I will be exporting more to Thailand then, that is the time for me when I will be in a position to do it, until then I wait and watch, if I only I knew what I did not know.

[Denizen]

I though the day ended rather well, no significant movement really. But clearly the Daily Mail and others, wrote their copy 24 hours earlier and decided to run with it anyway, even if it was the opposite of what really happened!

Yesterday's news after aday and everyone will have forgotten what was written and said.

We are, afterall, mere fortune tellers. Whether we like it or not the Banking system will not be allowed to colapse and countries will not be allowed to go bankrupt, if that were to happen then choas would rule and it does bear thinking about what would develop. Difficult though times are right now there will be a realignment, there will be peaks and troughs, judging those and making a decision is down to the individual. My time will be may/june if things looke promising I will be exporting more to Thailand then, that is the time for me when I will be in a position to do it, until then I wait and watch, if I only I knew what I did not know.

If you knew what you did not know the dimensions of your head would exceed those of the planet. Knowledge is infinite and expanding.

Edited February 26, 2013 by Denizen

[nong38]

I though the day ended rather well, no significant movement really. But clearly the Daily Mail and others, wrote their copy 24 hours earlier and decided to run with it anyway, even if it was the opposite of what really happened!

Yesterday's news after aday and everyone will have forgotten what was written and said.

We are, afterall, mere fortune tellers. Whether we like it or not the Banking system will not be allowed to colapse and countries will not be allowed to go bankrupt, if that were to happen then choas would rule and it does bear thinking about what would develop. Difficult though times are right now there will be a realignment, there will be peaks and troughs, judging those and making a decision is down to the individual. My time will be may/june if things looke promising I will be exporting more to Thailand then, that is the time for me when I will be in a position to do it, until then I wait and watch, if I only I knew what I did not know.

If you knew what you did not know the dimensions of your head would exceed those of the planet. Knowledge is infinite and expanding.

I think you know that I meant in relation to what will happen to the GBP against the Thai Baht in this instance because if the rate is favourable in may/june I will take advantage of it, but I dont know that, if only I did not know what the prevailing rate will be then. I need to go universal.

[exeter]

The incoming BOE Governor has announced that he is considering Negative Interest Rates when he comes in in June, now who would have predicted that! Time to give thought to any money held in UK accounts I would have thought

[mccw]

45.2 :0 how low will it go? 40 doesn't look so far away. 30 within a couple of years

[mccw]

Looking at the historic chart it looks like it went almost this low around late 2010 but then bounced back up amount the 50/49 trend.

[fletchsmile]

http://www.xe.com/

Down to 1.5077 vs the USD (44.88 v THB) at the time of posting ... if only i'd waited another 2 days it'd be 200 pound more in my pocket.

Irony is i read many experts views on what would happen to the pound last week and not one was mentioning this! (though in hindsight it was obvious)

Of course as a Thai Visa reader that's where you had a competitive advantage...

>Posted 2013-01-19 20:10:54. Post #29

My view is USD/THB will push towards 29. GBP will weaken vs USD and I wouldn't be surprised to see it push towards 1.50. With that in mind don't be surprised to see GBP/THB pushing towards 45. There'll of course be ups and downs along the way, but I see more chance of GBP/THB at 45 than GBP/THB 50.

...UK and US both have indulged in QE and increasing their money supplies. Both low interest rates look set to continue = unattractive currency. Both have(or had) their sovereign credit ratings under pressure... US seems a bit better placed than UK, and further along the curve - already downgrad

ed....

Fletch

Nice predication. Sadly for myself and others, the only error in your forecast was the bit that said there'd be ups and downs along the way. Still looking for an up that looks like it won't be coming, and I am openly and quite deliberately tempting fate to prove me wrong when I say that.

Yes you're right wasn't a straight line by any means, but not many ups compared to downs in this short period. Moved a lot quicker than expected

Edited February 26, 2013 by fletchsmile

[yoshiwara]

45.2 :0 how low will it go? 40 doesn't look so far away. 30 within a couple of years

Figures plucked out of thin air.

[wellred]

Looks like I'll have to cut down on those lady drinks.

[yoshiwara]

Purchasing power parity (PPP) suggests that the pound should be at $1.458 says the OECD (FT Feb 23)so needs to fall further.

The message from that is that one should swallow and take the current exchange rate of 45 baht.

[thenervoussurgeon]

The incoming BOE Governor has announced that he is considering Negative Interest Rates when he comes in in June, now who would have predicted that! Time to give thought to any money held in UK accounts I would have thought

Its not the incoming governor that is predicting this ,but some guy under Mervyn at the moment.

[nong38]

All tips are now witheld in bars and restaurants etc, they wont like it and they sure wont understand it but it has to be done, just like all the latest "stick on prices " in the menu and the upward march of the petrol station, things are not as rosey as they were at the turn of the year. Latest rate I saw today we are into sub 45 territory now, well we wont die but we have lived better recently.

[Denizen]

All tips are now witheld in bars and restaurants etc, they wont like it and they sure wont understand it but it has to be done, just like all the latest "stick on prices " in the menu and the upward march of the petrol station, things are not as rosey as they were at the turn of the year. Latest rate I saw today we are into sub 45 territory now, well we wont die but we have lived better recently.

You will have to display the British stiff upper lip. It seems you lack the resources for stiffening anything else.

[nong38]

All tips are now witheld in bars and restaurants etc, they wont like it and they sure wont understand it but it has to be done, just like all the latest "stick on prices " in the menu and the upward march of the petrol station, things are not as rosey as they were at the turn of the year. Latest rate I saw today we are into sub 45 territory now, well we wont die but we have lived better recently.

You will have to display the British stiff upper lip. It seems you lack the resources for stiffening anything else.

I dont know you but I think your picture is rather apt, I do recognize a Marx Brother when I see one. You have no idea of my resources, how big/small oe where they are so why do you make cheap remarks that just make you look foolish?

Perhaps the decline of the pound againt the baht does not affect you financially as much as others but it a cause of concern to many, especially those who have been here for a long time with no annual pension increases to bolster them.

There will be some who can take it in their stride, some who can withdraw more from the bank to fill in the gap but you will not be able to do that for ever unless you are very well heeled.

I will live to my budget, it will be better than in the UK thats for sure from what I have seen of the prices there today and previously. Now I shall have a Thai beer at a Thai price., goodnight and sleep safely.

[marstons]

Sterling's "cliff fall" versus Thai Baht started already in 2004.

There's nothing like a good graph to prove .... anything you want.

The THB was 48 to the GBP in 1973 also.

I was here for the 1997 blip over 90 to the pound was a great holiday maybe just maybe may be back some time in the future.

[fletchsmile]

The write up below may be of interest for people looking for investment ideas:

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-news-and-investment-ideas/fund-news--and--alerts/artemis-strategic-assets-fund-research-update

I've held the fund myself for a couple of years with annualised return of just under 9%. I think it's a reasonable holding. William Littlewood is a highly respected fund manager for many years, so what was more interesting was his views:

Western governments are still in trouble

Asian currencies to strengthen, Western currencies to weaken

He has exposure to the Singaporean, Taiwanese and Hong Kong dollars, as well as the Malaysian ringgit.

Opportunities in equity markets

Besides the fund itself, it may provide some ideas, particularly those looking for alternative currencies to the west other than THB. SGD is one of the Asian currencies I've held assets in since having worked there in late 90's. Singapore is also convenient to visit and well regulated. Nice sovereign credit rating too

BTW I think he's still early on shorting UK, US and French sovereign bonds. Interest rates in these economies will rise at some point though so it's only a matter of when it comes about => higher bond yields => fall in their bond prices waiting to happen.

Cheers

Fletch

Edited February 27, 2013 by fletchsmile