GBP to THB Exchange Rate

[chiang mai]

Carney talks up the Pound, says he doesn't see the need for any more QE:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/mark-carney/10338469/Pound-rises-after-Bank-of-England-Governor-Mark-Carney-sees-no-need-for-more-QE.html

Pound rises by 0.5%.

So the current account deficit widens and the Pound keep getting stronger, interesting!

[scobie redux]

I don't, it's all about wealth preservation and insurance, anyway, what's one to do with Pounds these days, nobody seems to want them and there's hardly any return on them..

If you have pounds you don't want, I'll happily take them off your hands. Particularly as you seem to think they're worthless.

No need to thank me.

[Huayrat]

I don't, it's all about wealth preservation and insurance, anyway, what's one to do with Pounds these days, nobody seems to want them and there's hardly any return on them..

If you have pounds you don't want, I'll happily take them off your hands. Particularly as you seem to think they're worthless.

No need to thank me.

Haha well said.. He does like to talk the pound down I agree.. It's a shame for him that its not going to weaken for a very very long time now though.. 50.46 now..

[chiang mai]

Fortunately I have nine years that I can wait, if it goes ebyond that time it could start to cost me money because I would have to buy THB! In the meantime:

ask yourself a few questions and try to answer them honestly:

1) is the UK budget deficit and level of borrowing desirable and/or sustainable.

2) If the answer to the above is no, is there a quick fix and/or will the problem go away overnight.

3) Is a strong Pound vs USD helpful to exports and is it desirable.

4) What do you suppose is going to happen to GBP once the US switches off QE, do you think that will benefit GBP.

[Huayrat]

Fortunately I have nine years that I can wait, if it goes ebyond that time it could start to cost me money because I would have to buy THB! In the meantime:

ask yourself a few questions and try to answer them honestly:

1) is the UK budget deficit and level of borrowing desirable and/or sustainable.

2) If the answer to the above is no, is there a quick fix and/or will the problem go away overnight.

3) Is a strong Pound vs USD helpful to exports and is it desirable.

4) What do you suppose is going to happen to GBP once the US switches off QE, do you think that will benefit GBP.

No point talking to a blind man who doesn't listen.. The pound will be strong as the baht will be weak.. No point telling you why as I've told you a million times..

[chiang mai]

I understand, they are difficult questions.

[chiang mai]

Here's an easier one, spot the difference:

GBP.docx

[chiang mai]

And the answer is, there is no real difference, as GBP/USD rises and falls, GBP/THB rises and falls also - there's a big clue there!

OK class is over, you've scored an "F" I'm afraid!

[Naam]

Fortunately I have nine years that I can wait, if it goes ebyond that time it could start to cost me money because I would have to buy THB! In the meantime:

ask yourself a few questions and try to answer them honestly:

1) is the UK budget deficit and level of borrowing desirable and/or sustainable.

2) If the answer to the above is no, is there a quick fix and/or will the problem go away overnight.

3) Is a strong Pound vs USD helpful to exports and is it desirable.

4) What do you suppose is going to happen to GBP once the US switches off QE, do you think that will benefit GBP.

No point talking to a blind man who doesn't listen.. The pound will be strong as the baht will be weak.. No point telling you why as I've told you a million times..

wil that affect the bar fines and the fees of the working girls? and what will happen to the price of Chang?

[mccw]

For you CM

On Friday I listed a 4/5 bed student property in Brighton. Had two viewings on Monday. Today I received offer of the full asking price of £275,000, 3 grand holding deposit up front to take it off the market. Rental value of £1850-1950 means its a good buy at this price 8-9%gross is that?), but I'm still amazed at the speed and conviction.

I bought the place for 175k almost 3 years ago now. Spent about 15k to turn from 3 to 5 beds. Enjoyed some reasonable rental income off it in that time too.

I'm half tempted to keep it; but decided to take the profits and buy cash in Thailand for some bht income to hedge my currency risks going forward. Of there is another crash type down turn with new rounds of QE I can see the £ dropping another 20-30% like last time. I think uk property market will likely rise over short term 2-3years as gov help to buy scheme bouys the market; but I'm selling now because (1) I'm happy with bht exchange rate (2) I think the down turn/ collapse could come really at any time and with out warning.

[chiang mai]

For you CM

On Friday I listed a 4/5 bed student property in Brighton. Had two viewings on Monday. Today I received offer of the full asking price of £275,000, 3 grand holding deposit up front to take it off the market. Rental value of £1850-1950 means its a good buy at this price 8-9%gross is that?), but I'm still amazed at the speed and conviction.

I bought the place for 175k almost 3 years ago now. Spent about 15k to turn from 3 to 5 beds. Enjoyed some reasonable rental income off it in that time too.

I'm half tempted to keep it; but decided to take the profits and buy cash in Thailand for some bht income to hedge my currency risks going forward. Of there is another crash type down turn with new rounds of QE I can see the £ dropping another 20-30% like last time. I think uk property market will likely rise over short term 2-3years as gov help to buy scheme bouys the market; but I'm selling now because (1) I'm happy with bht exchange rate (2) I think the down turn/ collapse could come really at any time and with out warning.

Well done on the sale, nice when it works out that way.

You seem to be preparing for property and currency falls hence some questions:

Why exit the Property market with a proven and lucrative income property at a time when the market is just picking up, alledgedly?

Carney has publicly said there'll be no more QE, I guess that means there might not be any for a while! You're not convinced I gather (?), a lot of the numbers comming out presently seem to be positive, at least the news headlines are, I haven't read the detail (apart from the Nationwide ramping report vs the Land Registry report).

[FiftyTwo]

For you CM

On Friday I listed a 4/5 bed student property in Brighton. Had two viewings on Monday. Today I received offer of the full asking price of £275,000, 3 grand holding deposit up front to take it off the market. Rental value of £1850-1950 means its a good buy at this price 8-9%gross is that?), but I'm still amazed at the speed and conviction.

I bought the place for 175k almost 3 years ago now. Spent about 15k to turn from 3 to 5 beds. Enjoyed some reasonable rental income off it in that time too.

I'm half tempted to keep it; but decided to take the profits and buy cash in Thailand for some bht income to hedge my currency risks going forward. Of there is another crash type down turn with new rounds of QE I can see the £ dropping another 20-30% like last time. I think uk property market will likely rise over short term 2-3years as gov help to buy scheme bouys the market; but I'm selling now because (1) I'm happy with bht exchange rate (2) I think the down turn/ collapse could come really at any time and with out warning.

Good idea if the GBP crashes, bad idea if the BHT crashes.

I'm thinking the BHT will crash very soon.

[chiang mai]

Why, logic, reasons, or is it an idea that came to you in a dream one night?

Edited October 2, 2013 by chiang mai

[Naam]

I'm thinking the BHT will crash very soon.

and the crash will happen on a friday or monday. it could be also on a tuesday or thursday because the chances of the Baht crashing on a wednesday are rather low...

i think

[Huayrat]

The pound will remain strong for along time yet so I wouldn't worry fifty two..

[chiang mai]

But which one will it be, will the Baht crash or will the Pound remain strong?

[mccw]

But which one will it be, will the Baht crash or will the Pound remain strong?

Exactly; that is why I'm hedging my bets.

In answer to your earlier question about why am I selling out of a market that is "just picking up"? It was just picking up year before last, last year it was really getting going; this year it seems to be booming. Brighton, like London, prices are well past the peak just before the last crash. Government stimulus may lift the rest of the country and lift prices in my areas even further; but based on the historic cycles then this feels like a good price and like I say- there are risks everywhere beyond the control of the UK government. Maybe things be fine a year or two but maybe not. Stocks are at record highs, property prices are too many places now; yet the wages and earning haven't risen to justify it all in my opinion. Basically I'd rather fix the roof while the sun is shining.

I still keep 2 of my best performing properties in the UK, but with the capital/ equity value increase works out now I can sell up, take my profits (cap gains free now I'm non resident) and make higher returns else where with out 100s of thousands of £a debt hanging over me on variable rates.

[Patronus]

Happy to report that I received a tad over 50 (net of Thai bank charges) for my Sterling transfer today.

Can't remember the last time that happened.

[fletchsmile]

Levels around 50 look like a good opportunity to bring in GBP to THB to me, for those looking for the best timing. GBP has had a good run, and there looks more downside than upside for it vs USD.

Took advantage of bringing some USD into the country a few weeks back too. Not something I do often, but with a rate of above 32 to THB it looked good, and more downside than upside for USD v THB, which is the way it's turned out.

Cheers

Fletch

[nong38]

I've just bought at 59 which suits nicely, if the GBP/USD side doesn't go as planned I'm still safe as regards USD/THB, we''ll see.

Thought you didn't trade CM -but i think it's a good buy.

I don't, it's all about wealth preservation and insurance, anyway, what's one to do with Pounds these days, nobody seems to want them and there's hardly any return on them..

there's no return on any cash which exceeds inflation.

When the financial crises of 2007 kicked off, managed to get a return of 6.27% tax free for 4 years in the UK, that was way above inflation at the time so it does happen but not often and you have to move very fast. This was the time when people were queuing outside Northern Rock for their money. The rates were soon cut back and interest rates dived, I think I was just lucky to see what was happening and took advantage.

This was a one off. otherwise what Naam says is the norm.

[chiang mai]

I agree, GBP/USD must be close to, if not at the top and 50 seems like a decent number for THB.

[Ticker2000]

NOT ROCKET SCIENCE

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-02/baht-weakens-as-central-bank-to-cut-growth-forecasts-bonds-rise.html

UK continues to get stronger and Thailand continues to falter.

All with the back drop of a looming removal of QE - already in the UK.

You wait until the market really thinks that QE will be removed. Back to 58-65 in flash.

Look at the graph and in 2008 in line with the introduction of QE - direct correlation.

[Naam]

Back to 58-65 in flash

and then a jump to 96.5 in no time.

[NeverSure]

Just my opinion? As long as the sheep still think that Thailand's financial situation is stronger than it is, and for that matter other Asian countries including China,

There will continue to be an influx of foreign money, if only to draw interest on bank deposits.

I think it would take a significant reduction in that foreign money in Thailand, repatriated to its home country to significantly devalue the baht.

As long as there are all of these buyers of baht, I don't see it dropping a lot.

Add to that Thailand's ease of money laundering where there are those purchases of baht, and the baht stays relatively strong. Supply/demand.

I see the rice scheme, the new home scheme, the new car scheme an upcoming rubber scheme, consumer debt, a condo glut in places, and other signs as warning bells. That's not to mention Thailand's falling exports and imports (import tax money) and government deficits and corruption.

Other people don't see it that way and continue to pour money into Thailand. Every time they buy baht, it props up the price. If all of the above comes to an abrupt end, then the baht must fall. Will it?

[i claudius]

Back to 58-65 in flash

and then a jump to 96.5 in no time.

Really ,do you think it will go that high naam ? because you just couldnt be being sarcastic ,its not like you and you know everything ,dont you?

[mccw]

Facts are UK is running a big deficit with no end in sight. Debt continues to grow. The demographics mean pensions, NHS, etc benefits will keep growing beyond tax revenues. The demographics alone is enough to worry me that printing will be needed just to meet the promises. Add to this the same instability and lack of capital in the banking sector that existed pre 08 crash and the risks are multiples. Macro potential problems abound with Japan, Europe etc

Thailand has a few problems, but demographics are not an issue yet. Where as this is a certainty in UK/ west. Thailand hasn't the problems of bloated unaffordable welfare state. These are the two key differences for me.

Also; They don't get involved in vastly expensive overseas wars at Americas bidding.

I'm balancing between the two after previously being 99% UK. Now is a good time to do it I think.

[chiang mai]

IC - I hear another whooosh.

You've gotta love this thread, 2% fact, 25% patriotism and the rest is wishful thinking, does nobody look at the numbers and reality any more!

Here's a morsel or two that might aid understanding, latest monthly current account deficit - comparison, Thailand +USD 700 mill., UK -USD 13 bill. - foriegn currency reserves, BOT only spent 3.7 bill. in August and nothing since, still at USD 168 bill, UK reserves, ahem!

Edited October 3, 2013 by chiang mai

[crazykopite]

When I send money over from the UK I always send it in GB then it gets changed when it hits Thailand that seems the best way to get the most for your £ The days of the 70 to the £ are well over I would be happy to get 50 to the £ at this moment in time !!!!

[mccw]

The posted above fact stated that the £ dropping at start of QE is true; but once printed that money is in the system. Not printing more does not mean the money is taken out of the system its still there obviously. So we witnessed a bit of strengthening from investor flows but to think the £ will come back to pre QE levels really is wishful thinking I think.

[mccw]

^ I mean to adress tickers post with my last one