chiang mai Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 (edited) That's not what the charts say: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/ why spoil with facts interesting theories? It's an exciting concept that world currencies are determined by the behaviour of traders on Fridays, unfortunately I don't think that bucket is capable of holding water! But hey, 9/10 for creative excuse making. CM Thats what your chart says exactly what the chart says if you compare GBP to THB There is small dip every Friday for the last month - did not check further back.. Hopefully you will come back and correct your statement. ...now check the rest of the period in the chart! Where there is some consistency in this respect is that BOT, every Monday morning, appears to set the exchange rate at its value as of Sunday, in other words the rate remains flat on Mondays. I had always presumed this was a holding measure until Western markets opened and a direction could be established. The claim for "always" dips on Fridays however does not hold true and consistently over time. EDIT: Sorry, one other related point: the rates we see on the chart are set 7:30am each morning and they represent the BOT rate at that moment in time for that day, that does not however mean that everyone will get that rate all day long, clearly, the rate will fluctuate with trade on a minute by minute basis and it is that fluctuating rate that customers will get/pay as the day wears on, conccievably, the rate that shows in the chart at the start of the day could be quite some distance away from the rate in use at lunch time. Edited October 6, 2013 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 One other point before I get dragged out shopping, Thailand operates a managed float system of currency exchange and since the currency is not fully freely convertible (limited amounts may be exported and the currency is not in demand or stored globally), this means the exchange rates are set by the Thai banks and the BOT, those things, for the purposes of this debate represent the market, which is not a truly global one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 back in the 80's i was told never change money on fridays,i still believe this to be the case. also another point i posted 3yrs ago,i had a trans.of funds sent to my bank in thailand on the day it arrived i followed the ex.rate all day from the lowest to the highest,can you guess what rate i recieved? well it wasnt the last rate or anything in between.i now make sure they call me when it arrives and what rate they offer me and recieve. that day the difference between the high and low was 6,000 bht. so at least my expences should have been covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 (edited) It is true that GBP/THB sometimes (not always) shows a dip on Fridays but it is not explained away by traders behaviour, two points: The first is that the exchange rates we see on sites such as Oanda are historic and not real time rates, Oanda for example currently displays the GBP/THB rate for the day that was set by BOT at 7:30am this morning, and it is the same as Sunday mornings rate. Secondly. the Friday rate is one that is set Friday at 7:30am so any dip must relate to decreased trading volumes at the end of the week, Saturday and Sunday also shows dips on most weeks but these dips are a function of reduced volumes. The Process: BOT sets a THB/USD reference rate each morning based on previous days demand for the Baht and this is a function within the managed float system, it's a tweak to make sure the value of THB is inline with trading volumes and economics. That rate is used as a basis for individual banks to set their own rates based on their desire (or lack of) to accumulate currency and the margin they wish to charge the customer. As indivudual banks and fiancne houses undertake tranasctions above a certain limit these are notified to BOT who mainatins a real time view of THB demand and acts accordingly.That exercise produces a ranking of bank exchange rates in Thailand where the difference in rates varies by around 6% between top and bottom of the list. Throughout the course of the day BOT may vary their rates and individual banks will adjust theirs accordingly, banks will also adjust their own rates based on changing needs. This is why when you look at sites such as the one below we see that a specific bank updated a rate say 20 minutes agao: http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Finally, regardless of whatever the rate might be as set by BOT at 7:30am on any day, intraday trading can expect to see the rate fluctuate considerably throughout the course of the day and this happens on a second by second basis, every day of the week. It is therefore possible and indeed likely that a customer who transacts an exchange at say 2pm recieves/pays a rate that is some distance from the 7:30am BOT rate. Edited October 7, 2013 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That exercise produces a ranking of bank exchange rates in Thailand where the difference in rates varies by around 6% between top and bottom of the list. there... there... CM. can we agree that 6% is "slightly" exaggerated and the differnces are more like 0.6-0.8%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That's not what the charts say: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/ why spoil with facts interesting theories? It's an exciting concept that world currencies are determined by the behaviour of traders on Fridays, unfortunately I don't think that bucket is capable of holding water! But hey, 9/10 for creative excuse making. I was just placing my theory of the 'Friday drop' phenomenon. It doesn't explain the way the currency is moving, just why the GBP currently drops on Friday. If the GBP was generally moving down against the THB the traders would be taking the opposite position, which would mean the THB drops on Friday, when they squared their positions. with all due respect... there is no position squaring by traders on a friday. the weekend GBPTHB rate is indirectly generated by trading of GBPUSD in NY and to a small extent a few hours later on "Globex" when Thailand either sleeps or getting ready for saturday's breakfast. the above mentioned "weekend rate" is not published by any bank but globally by Thomson Reuters. money changers are using this rate on saturdays and sundays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That exercise produces a ranking of bank exchange rates in Thailand where the difference in rates varies by around 6% between top and bottom of the list. there... there... CM. can we agree that 6% is "slightly" exaggerated and the differnces are more like 0.6-0.8%? We can agree that today the spread equals 3.1% and that on Friday last it equalled 6%, granted that does include SuperRich. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That exercise produces a ranking of bank exchange rates in Thailand where the difference in rates varies by around 6% between top and bottom of the list. there... there... CM. can we agree that 6% is "slightly" exaggerated and the differnces are more like 0.6-0.8%? We can agree that today the spread equals 3.1% and that on Friday last it equalled 6%, granted that does include SuperRich. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx am i right to assume that the percentage calculation taught in educational institutions of the British Empire differ from those taught in Continental Europe? here's a screenshot of "bankexchangerates". best rate published is 50.175 (Siam Commercial), lowest rate published is 49.955 (Bangkok Bank). my 33 year old pocket calculator says "percentage difference calculated up>down = 0.43846537%" and "percentage difference calculated down>up = 0.44039636%" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 That exercise produces a ranking of bank exchange rates in Thailand where the difference in rates varies by around 6% between top and bottom of the list. there... there... CM. can we agree that 6% is "slightly" exaggerated and the differnces are more like 0.6-0.8%? We can agree that today the spread equals 3.1% and that on Friday last it equalled 6%, granted that does include SuperRich. http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx am i right to assume that the percentage calculation taught in educational institutions of the British Empire differ from those taught in Continental Europe? here's a screenshot of "bankexchangerates". best rate published is 50.175 (Siam Commercial), lowest rate published is 49.955 (Bangkok Bank). my 33 year old pocket calculator says "percentage difference calculated up>down = 0.43846537%" and "percentage difference calculated down>up = 0.44039636%" gbp THB1.jpg Naam stop it and just click on the link, Superich 50.2, TMB 48.74, 3.1%, end of. And on reflection I think it's right to include entities other than just banks in as much as they are contributors to the interest rate calculation process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 now one of my dogs (the female with whom i discuss quite often Quantum Mechanics) and who followed our discussion on her tablet PC sent me this private message: "Dummy! why did you cut the lower part of the bankexchangerates screenshot where it is clearly mentioned percentage difference = 0.44%?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Naam stop it and just click on the link, Superich 50.2, TMB 48.74, 3.1%, end of. And on reflection I think it's right to include entities other than just banks in as much as they are contributors to the interest rate calculation process. you are of course right! for a good overall view we should also take exchange rates quoted by the Savings&Loan Pension Bank of the retired Papua New Guinea Headhunters during full moon and high tide into consideration when shrink heads are auctioned in Pound Sterling and Thai Baht payable in cash. yawwwwnnnn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Naam stop it and just click on the link, Superich 50.2, TMB 48.74, 3.1%, end of. And on reflection I think it's right to include entities other than just banks in as much as they are contributors to the interest rate calculation process. you are of course right! for a good overall view we should also take exchange rates quoted by the Savings&Loan Pension Bank of the retired Papua New Guinea Headhunters during full moon and high tide into consideration when shrink heads are auctioned in Pound Sterling and Thai Baht payable in cash. yawwwwnnnn... If they deal currency in any volume then yes, I agree, they should be included, please provide details of their rates for inclusion into the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madgee Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 (edited) I follow this thread because you two make me chuckle ....thank you! Can I be a mediator here or just go back to my chuckling? http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx TT Rate difference 0.44% Note Rate difference 3.00% I win ...... Yep, simple things please simple minds and I'm quite happy to admit it. Edited October 7, 2013 by Madgee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Here's one for the UK bulls, Capital Economics increases its GDP estimates, if Roger Bootle is saying things are looking up, maybe there's something to it: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/business-news-markets-live/10359913/Business-news-and-markets-live.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I follow this thread because you two make me chuckle ....thank you! Can I be a mediator here or just go back to my chuckling? http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx TT Rate difference 0.44% Note Rate difference 3.00% I win ...... Yep, simple things please simple minds and I'm quite happy to admit it. i am not interested to discuss exchange rates with people who are interested in note differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 well lets see what rate i get today trans.completed yeserday from the uk.at 5.30pm thai time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i claudius Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I follow this thread because you two make me chuckle ....thank you! Can I be a mediator here or just go back to my chuckling? http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx TT Rate difference 0.44% Note Rate difference 3.00% I win ...... Yep, simple things please simple minds and I'm quite happy to admit it. i am not interested to discuss exchange rates with people who are interested in note differences Good ,does that mean we dont have to read to your not very helpfull posts going on and on ? who made you God? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I follow this thread because you two make me chuckle ....thank you! Can I be a mediator here or just go back to my chuckling? http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx TT Rate difference 0.44% Note Rate difference 3.00% I win ...... Yep, simple things please simple minds and I'm quite happy to admit it. i am not interested to discuss exchange rates with people who are interested in note differences Good ,does that mean we dont have to read to your not very helpfull posts going on and on ? who made you God? Capt J.L. Picard! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huayrat Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 http://news.sky.com/story/1151741/economy-imf-makes-uk-growth-forecast-u-turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 well lets see what rate i get today trans.completed yeserday from the uk.at 5.30pm thai time. So, what rate did you get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 well lets see what rate i get today trans.completed yeserday from the uk.at 5.30pm thai time. as at the time 9.15am today no phone call. yesterday ex.rates varied from 50.17 at 8.30am,to 50.08 at 16.53pm.this was the only time it fell below 50.1 all tt.scb. today 50.22 at 8.30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 well lets see what rate i get today trans.completed yeserday from the uk.at 5.30pm thai time. as at the time 9.15am today no phone call. yesterday ex.rates varied from 50.17 at 8.30am,to 50.08 at 16.53pm.this was the only time it fell below 50.1 all tt.scb. today 50.22 at 8.30am. the wf is getting ready to visit the bank,she just put her snorting kit on. scb.15month fixed 3.30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 well lets see what rate i get today trans.completed yeserday from the uk.at 5.30pm thai time. as at the time 9.15am today no phone call. yesterday ex.rates varied from 50.17 at 8.30am,to 50.08 at 16.53pm.this was the only time it fell below 50.1 all tt.scb. today 50.22 at 8.30am. the wf is getting ready to visit the bank,she just put her snorting kit on. scb.15month fixed 3.30% looks like there was no phone call as the amount was under 1mill.baht. the money arrived yesterday and i received the best rate of the day that was 50.176 at 8.25am.next one was at 11.46am at 50.162 so once again i am happy with siam commercial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 (edited) I think what happened was: Yellen is nominated as new (moderate) Fed head, USD strengthens, no early end to QE likely so THB strengthens also and GBP/THB falls as a result, albeit only slightly (16:20 BKK). EDIT: Food for thought: what will happen to USD when this budget nonesence gets settled, which it will, and what will be the impact on THB pairs? Edited October 9, 2013 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 I follow this thread because you two make me chuckle ....thank you! Can I be a mediator here or just go back to my chuckling? http://bankexchangerates.daytodaydata.net/default.aspx TT Rate difference 0.44% Note Rate difference 3.00% I win ...... Yep, simple things please simple minds and I'm quite happy to admit it. i am not interested to discuss exchange rates with people who are interested in note differences Good ,does that mean we dont have to read to your not very helpfull posts going on and on ? who made you God? Captain Picard... sick bay reports another case of personality change crewman to roman emperor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Some bio data on Ms Yellen: "Married to economics Nobel prize winner George Akerlof, and mother of economics professor Robert Akerlof, New York-born Ms Yellen studied economics at Brown University and then Yale, where she earned a doctorate. The 67-year-old has been a professor at Harvard and, more recently, at the University of California, Berkeley, where her husband also teaches and conducts research". Puts my GSCE in woodwork to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nong38 Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Some bio data on Ms Yellen: "Married to economics Nobel prize winner George Akerlof, and mother of economics professor Robert Akerlof, New York-born Ms Yellen studied economics at Brown University and then Yale, where she earned a doctorate. The 67-year-old has been a professor at Harvard and, more recently, at the University of California, Berkeley, where her husband also teaches and conducts research". Puts my GSCE in woodwork to shame. Sounds like she too bloody clever for her own good. At Yale I believe she got a doctorate in locks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Some bio data on Ms Yellen: "Married to economics Nobel prize winner George Akerlof, and mother of economics professor Robert Akerlof, New York-born Ms Yellen studied economics at Brown University and then Yale, where she earned a doctorate. The 67-year-old has been a professor at Harvard and, more recently, at the University of California, Berkeley, where her husband also teaches and conducts research". Puts my GSCE in woodwork to shame. Sounds like she too bloody clever for her own good. At Yale I believe she got a doctorate in locks. Unhelpful and inappropriate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 well lets see what rate i get today trans.completed yeserday from the uk.at 5.30pm thai time. as at the time 9.15am today no phone call. yesterday ex.rates varied from 50.17 at 8.30am,to 50.08 at 16.53pm.this was the only time it fell below 50.1 all tt.scb. today 50.22 at 8.30am. the wf is getting ready to visit the bank,she just put her snorting kit on. scb.15month fixed 3.30% looks like there was no phone call as the amount was under 1mill.baht. the money arrived yesterday and i received the best rate of the day that was 50.176 at 8.25am.next one was at 11.46am at 50.162 so once again i am happy with siam commercial. Looks like you timed that one just right, if you'd waited another day you'd certainly have got a lower rate, well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatboy Posted October 10, 2013 Share Posted October 10, 2013 i am one of the lucky ones for one yrs.living exs.if its over 40 then i have a bonus. been lucky 2009,2010,[57] 2011[49+] 2012[49] 2013[49] this was tooo good to miss 2014[50] i needed the extra as cider has gone up up up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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