Udon Thani Growth

[thaiman]

Why is udon booming? I see new buildings up everywhere, and lots of brand new cars. Seems like everyone has lots more disposable income than before. What's driving the growth?

[maprao]

New cars come from easy to get credit.

[pianoman]

It's not just Udon, Khon Kaen, Mahasarakham and even sleepy Kalasin all seem to be exploding with Growth, Expansion and Economical abundance... And there does not seem to be any tangible reason for the Boom... Hopefully it is not just a Huge Bubble that will soon "Pop" leading to major financial problems for the region...

Pianoman

[IsaanAussie]

Could it have something to do with the investments by major Agricultural companies and the upcoming 2015ASEAN EC?

[jamescollister]

ASEAN and that big guy to the north, lots of money pouring into Issan. New factories, retail complexes, new roads etc.

Welcome to the big bad world, everyone will be rich for a week, then work for the man for the rest of their lives. Jim

[Banzai99]

Lots of work going on in Loei, the place has changed so much in the last 10 years, huge increase in traffic too.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Banzai99

[Gonsalviz]

Lots of work going on in Loei, the place has changed so much in the last 10 years, huge increase in traffic too.

I might note that the main reason for traffic cngestion in Loei might that they are the slowest drivers in Thailand.

[JLCrab]

In Loei, maybe the traffic is congested as everyone is trying to sell lottery tickets to each other; at least those that are not selling tickets in Khon Kaen.

[farangme]

Laos is booming and the moneyed set like to spend it in Udon.

[ray23]

The Government has committted to huge infratstucture growth this year. Railway for the Port in Myramar to China. Currently the rail system runs through Udon. Might have something with the explosive growth we are seeing.

[thaiman]

The Government has committted to huge infratstucture growth this year. Railway for the Port in Myramar to China. Currently the rail system runs through Udon. Might have something with the explosive growth we are seeing.

Can you elaborate please?

Provide some links to news articles if you got them. Thanks

[JLCrab]

I don't see that there is any connection planned between Myanmar's port development

at Dawei and Udon Thani. The rail link according to this article in the NY Times from Nong Khai north through Laos to Kunming is 'under consideration' (note in red) The large black hashes in China is new railroad 'under construction'.

http://www.nytimes.c...s-the-cost.html

Edited February 17, 2013 by JLCrab

[ray23]

Sorry this is old news part of a master plan to develop the deep water port. Which is a koint Project with Thailadn and Myramar

yuo could have read about as much as two years ago. Last I heard ITD got the port contract.

The link between Bangkok and Nong Khai already goes across the borde and stops just shy on Vientene, again old news.

Thought you guys would have known that. There is also a plan for a high speed rail from China through Bangkok, As I recall

it will end in Ratchi Buri.

[ray23]

Sorry could only search back sixty days. Yongluck mentions in fast racking the project along with several others.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/transport/327789/yingluck-directs-ministry-to-fast-track-rail-projects

[ray23]

http://www.globalasia.org/V6N4_Winter_2011/Pavin_Chachavalpongpun.html?PHPSESSID=27e2e5f1eea77f9e245c911358886d55

Results of a google seacrh very long article, so I will let you read it. The Rail link already exists between Bangkok ECT going through Udon

[ray23]

Just a small part of the article, at this point it would seem trucks are being used to Bangkok.

Thailand: a Big Winner

The Thai-Burmese border trade has been increasing at an astonishing 55 per cent, year-on-year, and was worth some $1.7 billion in 2010. Undoubtedly, the Dawei project will further augment the total trade volume between the two countries in the future. As the sole contractor, ITD's investment in Dawei is likely to transform Thailand into a major transit hub within the East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC).31 Thailand stands to gain the most from the Dawei Project.

At the national level, the Abhisit government openly supported the Dawei investment and even sought to lobby countries in the region on behalf of ITD, urging them to partake in the development project. In October 2011, Yingluck made a quick visit to Burma in which she met with President Thein Sein and expressed continued support for the Dawei project and increased co-operation with Burma, according to Burmese official news reports.

During the Thai-Burmese Joint Trade Commission (JTC) meeting in April 2010, the two countries set a goal of tripling bilateral trade in five years, from US$4.3 billion to US$13 billion in 2015. Thai officials announced after the JTC meeting that the Dawei project would allow Thailand and Burma to meet the target, and that the deep-sea port could realize Thailand's dream of becoming the logistics hub of Southeast Asia.32

Additionally, numerous production bases in western Thailand, including Kanchanaburi, Rachaburi, Petchaburi, Prachuab Kirikhan, Samutsongkhram, Samutsakhon, Suphaburi and even Bangkok will all benefit from Dawei, which would act as a gateway for Thai food products manufactured in these locations. Thailand is one of the world's major food suppliers, and thus puts enormous effort into agro-industry; Dawei will be a distribution point.

The Thai government has promoted Dawei as part of the national interest, despite Western skepticism about Burma. The West is coming around to accepting that change in Burma may be real, and with ASEAN taking the step in November at its annual summit of endorsing Burma's chairmanship of the body in 2014, the political winds are blowing in Thailand's favor.

The Thai private sector will also get rich from Dawei. The project could secure a firm source of revenue for ITD for at least 10 years. Potentially lucrative deals have also attracted other big conglomerates in Thailand to pour money into the project. In April 2011, Loxley Public Limited Company, Thailand's oldest and largest trading business, sent a team to Dawei to consider the project feasibility and has expressed its interest in power transmission lines and oil and gas terminal projects. Loxley has a close relationship with ITD and the two companies previously jointly established a beer and beverage business in Laos.33 More Thai companies are now in negotiation with ITD for their prospective investments in Dawei's subsequent development phase. This will intensify the Thai economic influence in Burma in the long term.

[JLCrab]

The NY Times article is from 01JAN2013

Edited February 17, 2013 by JLCrab

[ray23]

Who was it that said all I know is what I read in the news. Maybe they are scaling back. But, so far I have not seen anything loacally saying they are.

[ray23]

From Today:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/economics/336433/two-point-cut-in-logistic-costs-forecast

I have been following this for a number of years as an investor.

80% of the budget dedicated to rail transport

[JLCrab]

I have also been following this for years as I have Thai friends in the overland transport sector. In the long run, all of Thailand's overland transport infrastructure will greatly improve.

But as the economist John Maynard Keynes put it: In the long run, we are all dead.

(Yes; JMK as in the pejorative Keynesian)

Edited February 18, 2013 by JLCrab

[ray23]

Lets for get about this and accept Udon is booming. As you said in the end probably doesn't mean much to us.

I will say your right and that your Source is better then mine.

[JLCrab]

No problem, Ray -- let's also say that I believe the NY Times more than I believe my Thai friend.

[ray23]

Come on I'm trying to step away from a debate that means nothing in the end. But, give me a little more credit then that.

I don't trust the Western Press anymore then I do the Thai Press. I certainly don't base my thought on Thai rumor

So lets say you won this one and move on.

[JLCrab]

I just re-read Post #1: Seems like everyone has lots more disposable income than before. What's driving the growth?

Aeon, EasyPay, & CitiBank

[ray23]

The Thai people here supposedly have had huge pay increase from 200 baht to 300 over a short period of, at first it went to 240 then to 300.

But, unless they are working for a large firm, few are actually seeing the 300.

Sadly I believe you named the real source. Credit a cards are a trap unless you pay them off instantly. Easy use and easy to get out of hand

They have sold a lot of cars last year under special programs. My personal experience with ten years here Thai's in lower incomes have l

little idea of how to budget. I fear the institutions you named will have a large amount of NPL's. Where that will lead to I have no idea.

Based on the farm programs at some point more then likely forgiven.

I look for the repo market in cars to be very busy over the next few years. Inexperienced people only look at the payment,

not the upkeep insurance Ect.

Anytime I have loaned money to a Thai I assume it's a gift, your not going to ge paid back. So I only do that under certain

circumstances. I've been asked to co sign on car loans not going to happen.

A lot of Government programs have been targeted at creating consumption locally. The SET Market has been hotter then a

three dollar pistol, with huge amounts of foreign inflow of money. Will the market reverse, usually does at some point .

Supposedly property value in Udon has went up by 30%. We have seen Condo projects in the beginning stages, some with the

first phase sold already. Which is intersting in that they have not cleared final stages required by the Government. When I first

moved here, there were half finished building all along the ring road. Those for the most part have been completed. With

dozens of moer huge building been built along the ring road.

It will either be great when the bills come or one heck of a baloon popping.

Being an investor here means that you better do your research and buy qaulity companies at low P/E's. A friend owns stocks

purchased a few years back, that hold P/E's at 40 percent now. He didn't buy them when they were like that so has done very well.

To me it all looks to good to be true. Time will tell.

I did well in the market here. But, for all the reasons I have mentioned I took my cash and built small mushroom and fish farm. People

will always eat. I enjoy it heck of a lot more then having my head stuck in a computer doing research all day. During the days I

was investing I followed about seven news sites daily. Finally came to the conclusion that if I left that to me wife. She would lose everything

in the end.

A farm closer to her abilities. But, even that requires instruction in handling money. Which she has seen me do for ten years. She still

doesn't get it, Got a baht in your pocket spend it. She got a credit card from Aeon, she would use it when she had cash to pay.

So I finally took it away from her. She simply did not understand the end result. I doubt that many of the new card holders do. Bills will

come do, then what. Dangerous territory I believe.

[JLCrab]

My only comment to the above: The Thai words for the verbs 'smile' and 'lend' are pretty much the same.

[gazwjb1]

Southern Thailand is the same, I have seen so many new homes and buildings being built, must be a lot of credit.