Could This Be Another Disaster Waiting To Happen?: Thai Editorial

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EDITORIAL

Could this be another disaster waiting to happen?

The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The government is about to award huge contracts as part of its flood prevention plan; is there any hope the plan will be free of corruption?

newsjsThe massive Bt350-billion water management plan that the government initiated in response to the disastrous floods in late 2011 could end up like the aborted Hopewell project or the corruption-plagued Klong Dan Wastewater Treatment Project in Samut Prakan.

If the government cannot ensure transparency in the bidding process and engage local communities in the project from the start, the whole plan could lead to more questions instead of solutions that help people deal with flood disasters.

The signs are not positive. The government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has already qualified six bidders for the 10 investment modules, even though there are questions whether the government has thoroughly studied the environmental impact of the project.

The five-year goal envisions the construction of eight big dams, including the controversial Kaeng Sua Ten Dam in Phrae and several smaller ones.

Without full public engagement, the contractors who win the construct contracts will surely face opposition from the local citizens who will be most directly affected. Construction of dams is and always will be a sensitive issue. Already we are seeing a fierce debate over the construction of the Mae Wong Dam in Nakhon Sawan, which is designated to be part of the overall water-management project.

All six qualified bidders are due to submit final plans next month. This means that part of the selection has been done, even though the environmental experts panel has received no environmental or health impact assessment reports on any of the projects.

The government must review the credentials of the potential investors who want to be involved. First, they must have the proven capacity to complete the project in a cost-efficient manner. If not, we could end up with a scandal similar to the one that has enveloped the construction of new police stations and accommodations. PCC Construction and Development won that Bt6.6-billion contract but has failed to come anywhere near to fulfilling its obligations. The delay has demonstrated clearly that PCC lacks the capacity to complete the project either to standard or on time.

Unless projects on this scale are transparent, the public is likely to witness another fiasco like the Hopewell train line. What was supposed to be a massive transit facility became nothing more than a string of abandoned and decaying concrete pillars, reminding us daily of the damage caused by corrupt politicians at the expense of the public interest.

More importantly, the investors must engage the public in discussion from the start. The construction of dams affects the environment and the livelihood of local people.

Aside from dams in the Ping, Yom, Nan, Pasak and Sakaekrang river basins, which must hold a combined 2 billion cubic metres of water, proper floodways will also require support from local administrations as well as residents whose land is affected.

Whether local or foreign bidders win the contracts does not matter as much as transparency and honesty. A project on this scale, initiated because of the suffering seen during the last flood disaster, must proceed in earnest. But the public will be keeping a close watch on all the players. We cannot afford to allow vested interests to abuse the trust of the people when so much is at stake, as we were reminded to our great cost by the events of 2011.

-- The Nation 2013-02-13

[chooka]

"is there any hope the plan will be free of corruption"?

To keep it short NO!

[noitom]

An editorial of this nature asking a question like this about corruption is preposterous duplicity on the part of the Thai press.

[Roadman]

It does not matter. Perfect plan to feed the clan of release the contracts, pay some money out, deal with the environmental issues as we go and in future years time blame someone else like mostly your opposition, (or in Thailand's case is that actually your enemy) when like the cop stations nothing has been advanced and most of the money is gone. Cop stations, rice pledging, the examples are always in the Thai news...it goes on and on. The money greases the snouths in the trough and in turn the sucklings on the hind tit. Sweet f all goes to the poor who will still be living in poverty for years to come. Corrupt mentality with no though of consequence but how much is in it for them. Only with the Shinwatra clan its full maximised sucking.

Accordingly to polls 66% of thai's suffer from it, so who is going to stop it.

[dcutman]

EDITORIAL

Could This be is another disaster waiting to happen?!

The Nation

[KKvampire]

An article with a false premise. Corruption isn't recognized as a big enough problem to do anything about by those who have the power to do something, let alone a "disaster"

Edited February 13, 2013 by KKvampire

[ResX]

Flood control is not all about water having retention capacity alone. How to use it is equal important. In 2011 Thailand had managed its already available retention capacity 10.5billion cubic meters badly. What assurance can you provide that adding up the capacity can make the utilization better?

You ought to admit that the 2011 flood occured partly because of water mismanagement. Outherwise adding up retention capacity will not make it better.

Let me share my wisdom about flood control. "An empty tank with water retention capacity of one cubic meter is worth more that a fully filled reservoir that has retention capacity of 100billion cubic meters as far as dealing with impending flood is concern".

Sound funny right? How could any flood control authority allows its flood control dams to be fully filled before the coming of flood season? Unfortunately this funny thing happenned prior to the 2011 flood in Thailand.

Adding up the water retention capacity without admitting that the actual problem with the 2011 flood in Thailand is about utilizing the retention capacity may lead to the same consequence. And obviously with additional cost.

I'm quite sure that the current flood control structures and non structures in the Chao Pharaya are good enough to take on the biggest flood in 30 years if they are efficiently operated and managed. So they are not that hopeless after all. With this stated capabality, the structures can turn the biggest flood in 50 years to be as small as if such flood is the biggest in 3-4 years! Let us look back the 2011 flood inThailand. It is said the biggest flood in 50 years. Did you see the consequence is as bad as the biggest flood in 3-4 years? My point is that the available retention capacity of 10.5billion cubic meters at the authorities' purasal did practically nothing to "trim" the 2011 flood. Otherwise the maximum flood in that year should have been trimmed down to about 4.5 billion cubic meters rather tah 15 billion cubic meters as reported.

Edited February 13, 2013 by ResX

[Bluespunk]

"Could this be another disaster waiting to happen?"

Yes

"BANGKOK: -- The government is about to award huge contracts as part of its flood prevention plan; is there any hope the plan will be free of corruption?"

No

"Whether local or foreign bidders win the contracts does not matter as much as transparency and honesty. A project on this scale, initiated because of the suffering seen during the last flood disaster, must proceed in earnest. But the public will be keeping a close watch on all the players. We cannot afford to allow vested interests to abuse the trust of the people when so much is at stake,"

Dream on

[Pimay1]

An article with a false premise. Corruption isn't recognized as a big enough problem to do anything about by those who have the power to do something, let alone a "disaster"

The only disaster to the government would be if all the piggies didn't get their 30%.

[ResX]

Ohh.. one more very..very important thing that I can see 1000km ++ away that the authorities don't quite see it in perspective. Don't ask me why since whatever answer given the fact remains.

The Bhumibol reservoir was designed in such a manner that it could not have neutral position when it comes to flood. The reservoir is either will go against the flood or will work for the flood! During the 2011 flood the reservoir, not surprisingly, worked for the flood. How did you know this. Simple. As long as it sluice gates were opened during flood then the reservoir worked for the flood. Modern major flood control reservoirs are rarely designed with (regulated) sluice gates to ensure the fate of downstream population will not destiny in the hand of (probable) ignorence gate operators! They are designed with more flood friendly spillway which is called (unregulated) overflow spillway.

How did I know this fact? I have gone through reservoir level data over more than 10 years as given by Bankok Pundits (Online). From that data and my knowledge in reservoir operation it appeared that the maximum reservoir level for Bhumibol dam was kept via flow regulation rather than the expected natural regulation via unregulated overflow spillway.

Flood flow regulation by means of sluice gates can be bluntly meant that "let the reservoir passes all the flood flows that its get to the downstream". It is a matter of fact it will pass all its own floods to the downstream as fast as possible. This simply means if you are assuming one unit flood shall be seated in the reservoir and the onther one unit more shall be seated at the downstream, improper sluice gate operation will make sure two units floods will be seated at the downstream and zero unit will be seated inside the reservoir!

No. It is not the spillway design that counts. It is the entire reservoir operation concept that counts. The spillway design is meant to fulfill the reservoir operation concept. For a flood control reservoir with non regulated over flow spillway, the reservoir will hold 1 unit flood temporarily. It helps for flood mitigation and control by mean of two ways. Firstly, it reduces peak flood flow at the dowstream by making sure the two floods don't add up at the same time. Secondly, it can hold the water temporarily from 0-30 days depends upon its flood lavel.

As long as the Bhumibol dam regulated spillway is not changed to unregulated overflow spillway, with due respect, I would suggest there is at least one fundamental problem with flood mitigation and control in Thiland that needs to be resolved.

Edited February 13, 2013 by ResX

[Melyn]

"is there any hope the plan will be free of corruption"?

To keep it short NO!

Is there any Hopewell?

[cup-O-coffee]

Answer: How much money does it take to rebuild 396 police stations? No one knows.

[Suffinator]

Corruption Free? In Thailand? Is this the joke of the week? Odds are all the piglets are scurrying for their place at the trough.

[rbrooks]

Seems like this is a landslide and an overwhelming confirmation that Thailand is corrupt as hell. I rest my case.

[JohanB]

Ther is really a great risk of disaster if the Mae Wong Dam is to be built.

Because there is a significant active fault line is passing under the building site.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere in the debate...

Anyone are free to use this data to bring it to higher level, to stop this crazy project.

Link to the Thai offical geological maps:

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=Download_geo_En

The map to look for is ND47-3.pdf (Nakhon Sawan)

The Mae Wong River is seen in the upper left part of the geological map and the fault line is very clear!!

[Puccini]

How much is 30% of 350 billion Baht? For some contracts, it will be even more. I have heard of figures as high as 50% for some contracts with government agencies. And Thailand's economy continues to thrive. This is the true meaning of "Amazing Thailand"

[OzMick]

Ther is really a great risk of disaster if the Mae Wong Dam is to be built.

Because there is a significant active fault line is passing under the building site.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere in the debate...

Anyone are free to use this data to bring it to higher level, to stop this crazy project.

Link to the Thai offical geological maps:

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=Download_geo_En

The map to look for is ND47-3.pdf (Nakhon Sawan)

The Mae Wong River is seen in the upper left part of the geological map and the fault line is very clear!!

And if you stop accepting BS as fact and look into it a little further, you will find that there is no evidence of movement in this "active fault" for thousands of years, nor is any expected for thousands more.

[soundman]

It would be nice to see a list of the six "qualified" companies and their lists of stock holders.

That way the public could understand how the "qualifications" were awarded.

[JohanB]

Ther is really a great risk of disaster if the Mae Wong Dam is to be built.

Because there is a significant active fault line is passing under the building site.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere in the debate...

Anyone are free to use this data to bring it to higher level, to stop this crazy project.

Link to the Thai offical geological maps:

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=Download_geo_En

The map to look for is ND47-3.pdf (Nakhon Sawan)

The Mae Wong River is seen in the upper left part of the geological map and the fault line is very clear!!

And if you stop accepting BS as fact and look into it a little further, you will find that there is no evidence of movement in this "active fault" for thousands of years, nor is any expected for thousands more.

300 million tons of water and an earthquake in Burma maybe change that. Who gives a 1000+ years guarantee?

[jalansanitwong]

For decades the standard 'seepage' rate has been 30 % of the total value of the contract. one third of all monies will disappear into private investments ie condo's,luxury villas, higher education fees for hi-so kids in Europe, USA etc.

Any talk about transparency is a total nonesense as 30% of the money will disappear regardless of any media bluster.

[OzMick]

Ther is really a great risk of disaster if the Mae Wong Dam is to be built.

Because there is a significant active fault line is passing under the building site.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere in the debate...

Anyone are free to use this data to bring it to higher level, to stop this crazy project.

Link to the Thai offical geological maps:

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=Download_geo_En

The map to look for is ND47-3.pdf (Nakhon Sawan)

The Mae Wong River is seen in the upper left part of the geological map and the fault line is very clear!!

And if you stop accepting BS as fact and look into it a little further, you will find that there is no evidence of movement in this "active fault" for thousands of years, nor is any expected for thousands more.

300 million tons of water and an earthquake in Burma maybe change that. Who gives a 1000+ years guarantee?

Who asks for one? I took the trouble in an earlier thread to do some research on the fault line, and found it is only "active" on a geological time scale far in excess of the expected life of the dam. Raising the spectre of disaster is common greeny pseudo-science aimed at the ill-informed and gullible.

[JohanB]

Ther is really a great risk of disaster if the Mae Wong Dam is to be built.

Because there is a significant active fault line is passing under the building site.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere in the debate...

Anyone are free to use this data to bring it to higher level, to stop this crazy project.

Link to the Thai offical geological maps:

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=Download_geo_En

The map to look for is ND47-3.pdf (Nakhon Sawan)

The Mae Wong River is seen in the upper left part of the geological map and the fault line is very clear!!

And if you stop accepting BS as fact and look into it a little further, you will find that there is no evidence of movement in this "active fault" for thousands of years, nor is any expected for thousands more.

300 million tons of water and an earthquake in Burma maybe change that. Who gives a 1000+ years guarantee?

Who asks for one? I took the trouble in an earlier thread to do some research on the fault line, and found it is only "active" on a geological time scale far in excess of the expected life of the dam. Raising the spectre of disaster is common greeny pseudo-science aimed at the ill-informed and gullible.

OK No hard feelings, I have not taken part of your earlier research, but I've a house very close to the Mae Wong River downstreams, so I'm a little worried.

Can you please give a link to the earlier thread and confirm, that we are talking of the same fault line on around N15deg 55min, E99deg19min

Johan

Edited February 25, 2013 by JohanB

[OzMick]

OK No hard feelings, I have not taken part of your earlier research,

but I've a house very close to the Mae Wong River downstreams, so I'm a

little worried.

Can you please give a link to the earlier thread and confirm, that we

are talking of the same fault line on around N15deg 55min,

E99deg19min

Johan

Had a look, and I may have been referring to the wrong fault line, and a different dam. I previously looked at the Mae Yom (different dam) and the Mae Wong Dam seems to be on the Moei fault.

That said, while there have been a couple of shakes recorded, the last movement on the Moei fault is listed as Late Quaternary, around 2.5 million years back. Link provided.

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=fault_En

[hellodolly]

"even though there are questions whether the government has thoroughly studied the environmental impact of the project."

Highly doubtful as they are not qualified to check out a book in a library much less do an environmental study and understand it.

These are the PT we are dealing with. A party that thinks whitewash a criminal and we will have reconciliation. Or solve all the problems in the country with a ear medicine aholic.

[JohanB]

OK No hard feelings, I have not taken part of your earlier research,

but I've a house very close to the Mae Wong River downstreams, so I'm a

little worried.

Can you please give a link to the earlier thread and confirm, that we

are talking of the same fault line on around N15deg 55min,

E99deg19min

Johan

Had a look, and I may have been referring to the wrong fault line, and a different dam. I previously looked at the Mae Yom (different dam) and the Mae Wong Dam seems to be on the Moei fault.

That said, while there have been a couple of shakes recorded, the last movement on the Moei fault is listed as Late Quaternary, around 2.5 million years back. Link provided.

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=fault_En

I can see in the documents, that the Moei fault has a slip rate of 0.36mm/year.

The "Late Quaternary" move was probably of an other magnitude.

http://www.docstoc.com/docs/2815790/South-East-Asia-Seismic-Hazard-Maps

This fault line on the proposed MaeWong dam builing site is clearly seen on Google Earth satellite photos. See on the cordinates above.

Johan

[maidu]

"Could this be another disaster waiting to happen?"

Yes

"BANGKOK: -- The government is about to award huge contracts as part of its flood prevention plan; is there any hope the plan will be free of corruption?"

No

"Whether local or foreign bidders win the contracts does not matter as much as transparency and honesty. A project on this scale, initiated because of the suffering seen during the last flood disaster, must proceed in earnest. But the public will be keeping a close watch on all the players. We cannot afford to allow vested interests to abuse the trust of the people when so much is at stake,"

Dream on

The above blurb is exactly what I was going to post. Bluespunk, you must be a musician like me.

As long as the Bhumibol dam regulated spillway is not changed to unregulated overflow spillway, with due respect, I would suggest there is at least one fundamental problem with flood mitigation and control in Thailand that needs to be resolved.

That's farang thinking - too reasonable and scientific for Thai minds to wrap around. A spillway is a spillway, and shouldn't be blocked or shut - ever - period.

[siampolee]

The whole plan is nothing more than a pocket lining exercise for the new amart who proclaim equality for all,

A money making retirement fund for selected politicians and state officials nothing more nothing less. It's a run up to the 1997 meltdown only this time it's going to be a bigger mess.Nothing has changed in the last 16 or so years at all, the old names are in the frame and they're seeking the jackpot again.

I would suggest that those who have read the book Thailand's Boom and Bust by Pasuk Phongpaichit & Chris Baker re read it again to see how little has changed and those who haven't read the book yet, well you should it will indeed open your eyes to the reality (?) of Thai politics

Edited February 26, 2013 by siampolee

[RubbaJohnny]

Ther is really a great risk of disaster if the Mae Wong Dam is to be built.

Because there is a significant active fault line is passing under the building site.

I have not seen this mentioned anywhere in the debate...

Anyone are free to use this data to bring it to higher level, to stop this crazy project.

Link to the Thai offical geological maps:

http://www.dmr.go.th/ewtadmin/ewt/dmr_web/main.php?filename=Download_geo_En

The map to look for is ND47-3.pdf (Nakhon Sawan)

The Mae Wong River is seen in the upper left part of the geological map and the fault line is very clear!!

Indeed thwong solution,for the wong reason at the wong place,cometh the man cometh the tea money

[JohanB]

To clear confusion, attached here is a Google satellite view over the proposed MaeWong dam building location.

The fault line is visable diagonally in the photo.

Edited February 26, 2013 by JohanB

[topchilla]

The whole plan is nothing more than a pocket lining exercise for the new amart who proclaim equality for all,

A money making retirement fund for selected politicians and state officials nothing more nothing less. It's a run up to the 1997 meltdown only this time it's going to be a bigger mess.Nothing has changed in the last 16 or so years at all, the old names are in the frame and they're seeking the jackpot again.

I would suggest that those who have read the book Thailand's Boom and Bust by Pasuk Phongpaichit & Chris Baker re read it again to see how little has changed and those who haven't read the book yet, well you should it will indeed open your eyes to the reality (?) of Thai politics

Corruption guaranteed, a successful dam project who knows. Its going to be years away from now until the man on the street will be able to judge.

I am very interested in the broader boom and bust theory though as I am sure many people on here should be.

For now Thailand appears to bee on a good footing regardless of the corruption. How long before this all slips away and things go pop?