Thai Economy Soars In Q4 On Post-Flood Recovery

[webfact]

Thai economy soars in Q4 on post-flood recovery

BANGKOK, Feb 18, 2013 (AFP) - Thailand's economy enjoyed record growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 as industry recovered from the impact of the kingdom's worst floods in decades, official data showed Monday.

newsjs

Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period according to the government's National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB).

GDP rose 3.6 percent compared with the previous quarter.

Strong domestic and international demand helped to drive the strong performance, said NESDB secretary general Arkhom Termpittayapaisith.

"There has been a full recovery after the severe floods," he told a press conference.

The Thai economy suffered a double-digit contraction in the wake of the months-long floods, which deluged vast swathes of the country in 2011, killing hundreds of people and causing widespread damage to factories.

At their height the floodwaters affected 65 of the country's 77 provinces, swamping hundreds of thousands of homes and disrupting global supply chains.

The NESDB forecasts economic growth of 4.5-5.0 percent for 2013, after an expansion of 6.4 percent in 2012.

"An economic recovery in the United States, China and Europe will be good for Thai exports," Arkhom said, adding that an increase in the kingdom's minimum wage would also boost domestic demand.

Rising car sales and production helped to lift GDP in the fourth quarter due to a government scheme to encourage new vehicle purchases.

Thailand's central bank last month held its key interest rate steady at 2.75 percent citing a better-than-expected performance in the economy.

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2013-02-18

[philw]

Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

[bigbamboo]

A hearty well done to the Thai people. You have proved you are worth the extra baht you were promised eighteen months ago after all.

[chiangmaikelly]

You know the rule. If you can't say anything bad don't say anything at all.

[rubl]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

[A_Traveller]

Might I suggest a visit to the Bank of Thailand website. The link below might offer a reasonable starting place.

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/StatInternationalTrade.aspx#

[Nickymaster]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

Of course. They have borrowed so much and have spent even more to "stimulate" the economy and still they can only reach a growth of 4.5-5%.

Major contributors to the modest growth are:

-Rice pledging: Let's wait until they start selling the rice and the books are closed

-Car scheme: Let's wait and see how many people can't pay for the loans

Export is at a very low level, the Baht is too strong.

Some people are really easy to please.

[chiangmaikelly]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

Isn't that how capitalism works. You borrow money to expand? I think that is how they have been working it since banks were invented. I don't think many people buy things for gold anymore, well except on Thai Visa. I think you go to the bank and borrow some money and buy something and when it goes up in value you sell it and make money. Of course expats are used to buying houses for cash. So maybe that is where you got the idea most people do it. But they really don't. Most people go to a bank and borrow the money to buy a home and car. Most.

[Nickymaster]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

Isn't that how capitalism works. You borrow money to expand? I think that is how they have been working it since banks were invented. I don't think many people buy things for gold anymore, well except on Thai Visa. I think you go to the bank and borrow some money and buy something and when it goes up in value you sell it and make money. Of course expats are used to buying houses for cash. So maybe that is where you got the idea most people do it. But they really don't. Most people go to a bank and borrow the money to buy a home and car. Most.

I think you go to the bank and borrow some money and buy something and when it goes up in value you sell it and make money.

And if the value goes down you loose money.

And when you cannot repay the bank you have a problem.

Edited February 18, 2013 by Nickymaster

[chiangmaikelly]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

Of course. They have borrowed so much and have spent even more to "stimulate" the economy and still they can only reach a growth of 4.5-5%.

Major contributors to the modest growth are:

-Rice pledging: Let's wait until they start selling the rice and the books are closed

-Car scheme: Let's wait and see how many people can't pay for the loans

Export is at a very low level, the Baht is too strong.

Some people are really easy to please.

Thailand's export recovery continued in November, when the export value rose 24.53 per cent on year after the 16 per cent increase in October. http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/November-exports-up-by-24-53-30196844.html

Please post the percentages that rice pledging and the car scheme contributed to the GDP. The OP didn't because the amount to too small to be important.

[chiangmaikelly]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

Isn't that how capitalism works. You borrow money to expand? I think that is how they have been working it since banks were invented. I don't think many people buy things for gold anymore, well except on Thai Visa. I think you go to the bank and borrow some money and buy something and when it goes up in value you sell it and make money. Of course expats are used to buying houses for cash. So maybe that is where you got the idea most people do it. But they really don't. Most people go to a bank and borrow the money to buy a home and car. Most.

I think you go to the bank and borrow some money and buy something and when it goes up in value you sell it and make money.

And if the value goes down you loose money.

And when you cannot repay the bank you have a problem.

Well yes that is the way it works. That is the way it has always worked and one of the reasons that the Thai economy soared in Q4. This is the way of the world. It is the reason the Thai baht went up and the US dollar and UK pound went down. Americans and Brits lost money and Thais made money. I know. I got out of US dollars and into Thai baht. Smart eh? A few years ago I borrowed US Dollars at 5% and made 30% in the exchange rate. So yes again The US lost money and me and the Thai baht made money.

Edited February 18, 2013 by chiangmaikelly

[JetsetBkk]

Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing?

[chiangmaikelly]

Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing?

Thailand has a GDP at current market prices of THB11.363 trillion. In 2012. That is 11,363 trillion baht.

[Bellweather]

You know the rule. If you can't say anything bad don't say anything at all.

There's lies, damned lies and Thai statistics

[Mosha]

Even the BBC said it had to be taken into account what happened in Q4 2011. It would be surprising if 2012 wasn't a lot better.

[muttley]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

I understand that's how things are done here, borrowing money to stimulate GDP. It's been done before you know. There was this guy abhisit and his mate Korn who did the same thing.I know you and others don't like to talk about the government before this one, its some unwritten law to avoid embarassment I think, but here goes.

The two of them borrowed 1.43 Trillion Baht and called it "Investing from strength to strength". Now when the PTP does this sort of thing its written off as just an excuse to "empty the treasury" as some wags on here put it. But when the Dems did it it was purely for the good of the Nation, like the notorious dusty roads project and oh yes, the police stations and police flats construction project - that was part of it too.

[chiangmaikelly]

You know the rule. If you can't say anything bad don't say anything at all.

There's lies, damned lies and Thai statistics

I believe the person who wrote that dropped out of school at 12. It's not that I don't like Mark Twain but he was a humorist not an economist.

[rubl]

And then there's WIKI which is not always 100% correct, but mostly gives lots of links to follow for those who want to investigate or just read a bit more

"Economy of Thailand

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Economy of Thailand is a newly industrialized economy. It is a heavily export-dependent economy, with exports accounting for more than two thirds of its gross domestic product (GDP). In the year 2012, Thailand has a GDP at current market prices of THB11.363 trillion. In 2012, the Thai economy grew by 6.4 percent with the headline inflation rate of 3.0 percent and current account surplus of 0.7 percent of the country's GDP[17]. In 2013, the Thai economy is expected to grow in the range of 4.5-5.5 percent[18]."

http://en.wikipedia....omy_of_Thailand

[A_Traveller]

Whist noticing some claim experience in whatever discipline is allegedly relevant to the topic, often with spectacular implications for their life's experience/educational attainment it is intriguing to note that the senior economist for the World Bank's East Asia and the Pacific division, Kirida Bhaopichitr, stated December last, that the rice pledging scheme's expenditure for the 2012-2013 harvest season will be 432 billion THB [14.4 billion USD], or 3.8 per cent of GDP which is an increase from the previous year’s 376 billion THB [12.5 billion USD], or 3.4 per cent of GDP.

Of course the final loss will not be known until the government sells the rice held in its stockpile and thus far the government has posted a loss of Bt115 billion [$3.83 billion] for the last year, while the loss on the new harvest is projected at Bt132 billion [4.4 billion USD], Dr Kirida noted.

Edited February 18, 2013 by A_Traveller

[muttley]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

Of course. They have borrowed so much and have spent even more to "stimulate" the economy and still they can only reach a growth of 4.5-5%.

Major contributors to the modest growth are:

-Rice pledging: Let's wait until they start selling the rice and the books are closed

-Car scheme: Let's wait and see how many people can't pay for the loans

Export is at a very low level, the Baht is too strong.

Some people are really easy to please.

Like the World Bank

World Bank paints improved economic future for Thailand

BANGKOK, Dec 19 – The World Bank (WB) has adjusted Thailand’s economic growth this year from 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent and po sitively forecast a 5 per cent expansion next year, according to a senior economist.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, a WB senior economist for East Asia and Pacific, said increased household consumption and investment after last year’s massive floods in Thailand, the government’s stimulation of consumer purchases and the successive inflow of foreign funds have contributed to the economic growth despite the country’s declining exports from 9.5 per cent last year to only 3 per cent this year due to the global economic slowdown and crisis in Europe and the US.

Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy, she said, adding that Thailand’s exports should expand to 5.5 per cent next year while investments in the private and public sections should increase by 8 per cent and 15 per cent respectively

http://www.pattayamail.com/business/world-bank-paints-improved-economic-future-for-thailand-19611

[rubl]

Does anyone here has information on Import/Export figures from 2012? I fear that those may show the GDP level has been greatly influences by local activity on borrowed money. IMHO

I understand that's how things are done here, borrowing money to stimulate GDP. It's been done before you know. There was this guy abhisit and his mate Korn who did the same thing.I know you and others don't like to talk about the government before this one, its some unwritten law to avoid embarassment I think, but here goes.

The two of them borrowed 1.43 Trillion Baht and called it "Investing from strength to strength". Now when the PTP does this sort of thing its written off as just an excuse to "empty the treasury" as some wags on here put it. But when the Dems did it it was purely for the good of the Nation, like the notorious dusty roads project and oh yes, the police stations and police flats construction project - that was part of it too.

First let me thank you for only using kind words in your reply this time.

Next I'm a bit surprised to see such emphasize on 'the two' and even on PTP. We're talking about governments here. Governments are supposed to work for the good of the people, where as with political parties and politicians you may wonder sometimes.

Now of course I could simply ask for more info on the 1.43 trillion borrowed by the two. Surely that action ruined the economy, brought the National Debt to dangerous levels and intentionally obstructed to new government under the real PM Yingluck in their hard work to find money for projects to make every Thai rich, starting with the most deserving of course. Luckily the 1.14 trillion leftover from 1997 could be swept under the BoT carpet.

So what we've got is a country which is moving forward, with a government promoting internal consumption by raising rice and other food prices, offering credit to all, retrieve a few more 300 - 400 billion Baht projects from her sleeves and which hopes export will increase further with problems in Europe and the USA gone anyday now. Well, I guess that means I should follow CMK's advise and hatch against the further surge of the Thai economy and valuta

Edited February 18, 2013 by rubl

[rubl]

Like the World Bank

World Bank paints improved economic future for Thailand

BANGKOK, Dec 19 – The World Bank (WB) has adjusted Thailand’s economic growth this year from 4.5 per cent to 4.7 per cent and po sitively forecast a 5 per cent expansion next year, according to a senior economist.

Kirida Bhaopichitr, a WB senior economist for East Asia and Pacific, said increased household consumption and investment after last year’s massive floods in Thailand, the government’s stimulation of consumer purchases and the successive inflow of foreign funds have contributed to the economic growth despite the country’s declining exports from 9.5 per cent last year to only 3 per cent this year due to the global economic slowdown and crisis in Europe and the US.

Thailand’s economic growth next year is predicted at 5 per cent thanks to revitalisation in the economic sector and the global economy, she said, adding that Thailand’s exports should expand to 5.5 per cent next year while investments in the private and public sections should increase by 8 per cent and 15 per cent respectively

http://www.pattayama...-thailand-19611

Not only easy to please, but somewhat off as well. The OP has

The NESDB forecasts economic growth of 4.5-5.0 percent for 2013, after an expansion of 6.4 percent in 2012.

[Thai at Heart]

Well of course it went up on comparison with having a quarter of the country's productive factories under water.

[Denizen]

Expect a flood of synchronized whining from Brits in Thailand as the GBP sinks even lower against THB.

[bigbamboo]

You know the rule. If you can't say anything bad don't say anything at all.

There's lies, damned lies and Thai statistics

Thank you, Khun Kittirat.

[metisdead]

Off topic posts and replies have been removed.

[rubl]

But what would happen if that event in George Washington’s life happened today….

http://www.examiner....our-cherry-tree

The only hope to demonize Thailand in this current thread is to drastically change the topic. I am sure you will find many willing participants however I will not be one of them. The Thai economy has soared in Q4 during Yingluck's watch.

Demonize Thailand, you mean as in being as suspicious about the Thai government as one would be about the one back home?

[Locationthailand]

Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing?

Precisely my thoughts.

[chiangmaikelly]

Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing?

Precisely my thoughts.

Nothing is THB 11.363 trillion GDP In 2012. You think THB 11.363 trillion is nothing?

[rubl]

Nice bit of good news for a change, especially from a source that is consistently hostile towards the government.

243 views and no negative or derisory comments.

Is TV slipping ??

Maybe Yingluck and co are doing something right.

OK, I'll have a go:

"Gross domestic product (GDP) soared 18.9 percent in the three months through December from the year-earlier period"

Doesn't this mean that 18.9% more of nothing, is still pretty much nothing?

Precisely my thoughts.

In the first 11 months of 2012 Thailand run up a trade deficit of US$ 15.7 billion with December, 2012 giving a deficit of US$2.37 billion. That's about US$ 18.07 billion trade deficit over 2012.

http://www.mcot.net/...50ba0901d0002e0

On the other hand we have this which is based on data from the BoT

So, tell me again, what was soaring. The amount of data which can't be correlated I think