Decline On Sterling (The Pound)

[StreetCowboy]

"The culture of benifits,mass immigration and a work shy facebook generation, puts the UK in Kanakazi mode."

You've not been here for 15 years. How do you come by the above info? You been reading the DM?

Thank goodness for the immigrants, or who'd be paying for the pensions?

If the fella had had any sense, he'd have had his children young enough that they could look after him in his dotage, instead of them being a drain on his pension.

SC

[cheeryble]

I have put more than half my cash in Thai assets, and some time ago changed most of the rest (then GBP) to $US at 1.896 average.

The point being that at that time everyone was saying the $ was finished, dead, suicide. Time had someone lighting a cigarette with a $ bill on the cover.

I still about 10% in GBP.

The question being......can anyone bring a persuasive case why action (selling or buying GBP, or $ for that matter) is advised or ill advised?

Edited February 25, 2013 by cheeryble

[Upnotover]

What decline? The pound, along with everything else, took a huge jump in 1998, and since then has drifted back towards its level at that time, although still some way to go yet.

[StreetCowboy]

I have put more than half my cash in Thai assets, and some time ago changed most of the rest (then GBP) to $US at 1.896 average.

The point being that at that time everyone was saying the $ was finished, dead, suicide. Time had someone lighting a cigarette with a $ bill on the cover.

I still about 10% in GBP.

The question being......can anyone bring a persuasive case why action (selling or buying GBP, or $ for that matter) is advised or ill advised?

I would recommend balancing your income and expenditure. A penny gained is worth less than a penny lost, so why gamble?

The only man that regularly comes out the casino richer than he went in is the owner, so why gamble?

SC

[Beetlejuice]

"The culture of benifits,mass immigration and a work shy facebook generation, puts the UK in Kanakazi mode."

You've not been here for 15 years. How do you come by the above info? You been reading the DM?

Thank goodness for the immigrants, or who'd be paying for the pensions?

If the fella had had any sense, he'd have had his children young enough that they could look after him in his dotage, instead of them being a drain on his pension.

SC

That’s not fair.

I tried having kids when I was younger, but with all my smoking, drinking and poor diet, I just didn’t have enough strength, plus at most times when me and girlfriend were just getting down to business, my Immigrant friends from out of town would turn up unannounced and by the time they left and went home, the girlfriend always had a headache.

Sad and true, but now I’m paying the price.

[pattayadingo]

On my far less income than many, I help my son, his wife and 2 kids out. She works and at the same time is studying to become an accountant. Next step for her is to become a certified accountant. He stays at home, looks after the 2 children and is also studying for a psychology degree.

She has not had a pay rise in 4 years. He gets no benefits at all.

Yet, I am not complaining. I help them out now with electric, gas and water bills. Okay, so I miss out on a few extra beers, a holiday and sundry other things I could do with the money I give to them. But by doing so I am hoping they will have a better and brighter future. A better future than I had at their ages.

Seems like the OP is in luxury in comparison. Maybe some ought to realise how much better off they are.

[HardenedSoul]

Sadly for the rest of you, I'm with the OP, he worked hard, earned, invested, saved and he had/has expectations, just because he's significantly smarter and wiser than the average ex-pat in Thailand is no reason to deride his financial accumen and his concerns over the current financial crisis. And indeed, much sympathies for the state of the UK economy/government and the working man et al but the OP isn't one of them even if many of the posters in this thread are, albeit transplanted ones. Tommo, behave!

Yes but not smart and wise enough to choose not to have 3 kids later on in life.

[astral]

It was 25 baht to the pound when I first arrived

so I am way ahead.

I did buy a new car when it hit the 90's back in the 90's

missed the peak by a few days, but still a very good deal!!

[MAJIC]

Of course it's worrying for those on a fixed budget and Pensions that don't have annual increases.Seems it's happened all too suddenly,from briefly touching 50 baht to the pound in November,today it's a dead 45 baht, 10% loss in just over 3 months.With no hope of turning around any time soon.

[theblether]

....and yet it's stiil 20 points above the base level as described by Astral.

Some people budgeted way too optimistically.

[roamer]

Don't expect things to get any better soon, 40B to the £ possible within another 3 months. Low (zero) growth and going nowhere.

[chiang mai]

I have put more than half my cash in Thai assets, and some time ago changed most of the rest (then GBP) to $US at 1.896 average.

The point being that at that time everyone was saying the $ was finished, dead, suicide. Time had someone lighting a cigarette with a $ bill on the cover.

I still about 10% in GBP.

The question being......can anyone bring a persuasive case why action (selling or buying GBP, or $ for that matter) is advised or ill advised?

If you spend Baht I would continue to hold USD, that will hedge you against GBP and THB, I think. Like it or not USD remains the reserve currency and all export bills in Thailand are settled in USD hence the Baht is unlikely to be allowed to get too strong.

[GuestHouse]

The OP came to Thailand 15 years ago, the Thai economy had just crashed and exchange rates made this place as cheap as chips - He was not alone, thousands of others where swayed by the idea that life really could be this good and this cheap.

But - and don't let anyone tell you any different - The internet, Thaivisa in particular, the banter down the bar, everywhere (if you cared to listen) was the warning 'These exchange rates are not going to last".

Some took heed of these warnings, some gloried in the cheap days and started a variable cost life style on a fixed income.

Now its time to blame the British Government for one's own folly.

All is not lost.

Sell high in Thailand, buy cheap in the UK.

[Ricardo]

The pound's weak, the Baht's strong, so this year I myself am spending more time in the UK, they'll perhaps also appreciate the business more !

But seriously, if belt-tightening isn't enough, then maybe its time to go travelling outside-Thailand more ?

[CMTourist]

I would suggest that the UK paying out 4 pensions for 15 years to a foreign country to someone moaning about how workshy the Brits are working to pay those pensions is a big reason for the decline.

Time to end the lavish pensions on the backs of the young for the baby boomers that makes it impossible for the young to get ahead and time to stop the loss of foreign currency through pensions being paid out to people who think they should be able to live outside the UK yet still claim support from the British still working in the UK

[qdinthailand]

Just because the OP appears to be well off doesn't mean to say he's not feeling the squeeze.

We all want to live the life that we are accustomed, if not better, and having the children privately educated is at huge additional expense.

The guy is worried like everyone else.

Yes, I get weepy every time I read about how the Wall Street investors are getting smaller bonuses, having to cut back because they are feeling squeezed. Gee, maybe their kids have to go to a cheaper private school - OMG No! We'll have to put the summer home in the Hamptons up for sale (or the condo in Aspen we use for our ski holiday! dear me). Time to sell the yacht.

Yes, its really depressing to read about tough times.

[chiang mai]

Just because the OP appears to be well off doesn't mean to say he's not feeling the squeeze.

We all want to live the life that we are accustomed, if not better, and having the children privately educated is at huge additional expense.

The guy is worried like everyone else.

Yes, I get weepy every time I read about how the Wall Street investors are getting smaller bonuses, having to cut back because they are feeling squeezed. Gee, maybe their kids have to go to a cheaper private school - OMG No! We'll have to put the summer home in the Hamptons up for sale (or the condo in Aspen we use for our ski holiday! dear me). Time to sell the yacht.

Yes, its really depressing to read about tough times.

So in your world there's either the rich bankers who live in the Hamptons or the poor hard done by working man, in reality there's a whole range of levels inbetween. Yet if someone has some money and their kids attend private schools, they must surely be far closer to being bankers than the honest working man and they deserve to be ridiculed, how sad that thought process is.

[qdinthailand]

Just because the OP appears to be well off doesn't mean to say he's not feeling the squeeze.

We all want to live the life that we are accustomed, if not better, and having the children privately educated is at huge additional expense.

The guy is worried like everyone else.

Yes, I get weepy every time I read about how the Wall Street investors are getting smaller bonuses, having to cut back because they are feeling squeezed. Gee, maybe their kids have to go to a cheaper private school - OMG No! We'll have to put the summer home in the Hamptons up for sale (or the condo in Aspen we use for our ski holiday! dear me). Time to sell the yacht.

Yes, its really depressing to read about tough times.

So in your world there's either the rich bankers who live in the Hamptons or the poor hard done by working man, in reality there's a whole range of levels inbetween. Yet if someone has some money and their kids attend private schools, they must surely be far closer to being bankers than the honest working man and they deserve to be ridiculed, how sad that thought process is.

Look at the stats; google 'income distribution in america' or similar.

In my world, roughly 90% of the people are being squeezed trying to keep a roof over their heads, trying to hold onto a job, paying for health care without going deep into debt.

When the top 10% complain about the same - they have no freaking idea!

Edited February 26, 2013 by qdinthailand

[StreetCowboy]

Just because the OP appears to be well off doesn't mean to say he's not feeling the squeeze.

We all want to live the life that we are accustomed, if not better, and having the children privately educated is at huge additional expense.

The guy is worried like everyone else.

Yes, I get weepy every time I read about how the Wall Street investors are getting smaller bonuses, having to cut back because they are feeling squeezed. Gee, maybe their kids have to go to a cheaper private school - OMG No! We'll have to put the summer home in the Hamptons up for sale (or the condo in Aspen we use for our ski holiday! dear me). Time to sell the yacht.

Yes, its really depressing to read about tough times.

So in your world there's either the rich bankers who live in the Hamptons or the poor hard done by working man, in reality there's a whole range of levels inbetween. Yet if someone has some money and their kids attend private schools, they must surely be far closer to being bankers than the honest working man and they deserve to be ridiculed, how sad that thought process is.

Look at the stats; google 'income distribution in america' or similar.

In my world, roughly 90% of the people are being squeezed trying to keep a roof over their heads, trying to hold onto a job, paying for health care without going deep into debt.

When the top 10% complain about the same - they have no freaking idea!

It certainly makes me glad that I didn't over extend myself with a mortgage, though in retrospect I'd have done well, since interest rates have been so low for a while. On the other hand, the only thing that has done worse than cash is residential property. And perhaps non-blue-chip shares in Western markets... I reckon now would be a great time to invest in less fashionable property in the UK; sure it might decline a little more in the next couple of years, but it's sure to take off soon, and 2nd tier property within walking distance of the centre of a city like Glasgow is bound to do well...

[nontabury]

I would suggest that the UK paying out 4 pensions for 15 years to a foreign country to someone moaning about how workshy the Brits are working to pay those pensions is a big reason for the decline.Time to end the lavish pensions on the backs of the young for the baby boomers that makes it impossible for the young to get ahead and time to stop the loss of foreign currency through pensions being paid out to people who think they should be able to live outside the UK yet still claim support from the British still working in the UK

He has 4 pensions,mostly private pensions I would think,so he paid for them,in the hope he would be able to enjoy his later years without worrying about money. He could of course have gone out every evening and pissed the money on beer etc,but no He was responsibly. Now your saying he's making it impossible for the younger people to get ahead.rubbish.

[Naam]

I have put more than half my cash in Thai assets, and some time ago changed most of the rest (then GBP) to $US at 1.896 average.

The point being that at that time everyone was saying the $ was finished, dead, suicide. Time had someone lighting a cigarette with a $ bill on the cover.

I still about 10% in GBP.

The question being......can anyone bring a persuasive case why action (selling or buying GBP, or $ for that matter) is advised or ill advised?

If you spend Baht I would continue to hold USD, that will hedge you against GBP and THB, I think. Like it or not USD remains the reserve currency and all export bills in Thailand are settled in USD hence the Baht is unlikely to be allowed to get too strong.

neither the reserve currency status nor the export bills prevented THB to strengthen 35% vs USD during the last decade

in absolute terms, the home i built in 2005/2006 would today be exactly 210,000 Dollars more expensive, assuming that prices of building materials are the same (which they are not).

[IMA_FARANG]

What goes up must come down.

I can recall being on an airplane flyong into Heathrow and reading an article talking about the GBP reaching a new low of one dollar and ten cents against the U.S. Dollar. THat was in the 1975 or 1976 time if I recall correctly.

Only a few years later the GPB/USD rate was back to above $1.80 to a pound.

And when I first came to Thailand in 1977 the Baht/Dollar rate was 25 Baht for a Dollar.

As the saying goes:

life's a b-tch, you go up and you go down.

But don't worry, in the end we all die anyhow.

Have a nice day!

[chiang mai]

I have put more than half my cash in Thai assets, and some time ago changed most of the rest (then GBP) to $US at 1.896 average.

The point being that at that time everyone was saying the $ was finished, dead, suicide. Time had someone lighting a cigarette with a $ bill on the cover.

I still about 10% in GBP.

The question being......can anyone bring a persuasive case why action (selling or buying GBP, or $ for that matter) is advised or ill advised?

If you spend Baht I would continue to hold USD, that will hedge you against GBP and THB, I think. Like it or not USD remains the reserve currency and all export bills in Thailand are settled in USD hence the Baht is unlikely to be allowed to get too strong.

neither the reserve currency status nor the export bills prevented THB to strengthen 35% vs USD during the last decade

in absolute terms, the home i built in 2005/2006 would today be exactly 210,000 Dollars more expensive, assuming that prices of building materials are the same (which they are not).

Looking back overthat decade one can argue that THB was undervalued hence the 35% strengthening was not amiss. But it would be difficult to argue that THB might or should strengthen by a further 35% in the comming ten years, 19 baht per dollar seems a little too far fetched to me at least.

[pipchatel]

Hi you all my last post on this. Thanks to all the guys with sensible comments, the rest sound out of place really,. May be a lot left Old blighty too early,too young? For me I started work at 14 yrs old, I paid 47 years tax,NI. Sadly only 44 years contributions were eligable. My point is,these younger guys comming to the Land of smiles, with a Thai G F, wife, already a child,? all look too young to be doing this. Where will the money come from? Guys like me slogged it out and came here later are of course far better placed. I first came here in1965, via the Vietnam conflict. Fell in love with it, but now i'm glad I followed through and worked to accummulate first.

Good luck you all,I think we are ALL going to need it.

PS, the guy on about pensions going up 40% must either be Finacial adviser or on Wacky backy

[billd766]

I would suggest that the UK paying out 4 pensions for 15 years to a foreign country to someone moaning about how workshy the Brits are working to pay those pensions is a big reason for the decline.Time to end the lavish pensions on the backs of the young for the baby boomers that makes it impossible for the young to get ahead and time to stop the loss of foreign currency through pensions being paid out to people who think they should be able to live outside the UK yet still claim support from the British still working in the UK

He has 4 pensions,mostly private pensions I would think,so he paid for them,in the hope he would be able to enjoy his later years without worrying about money. He could of course have gone out every evening and pissed the money on beer etc,but no He was responsibly. Now your saying he's making it impossible for the younger people to get ahead.rubbish.

I have three pensions so what.

I WORKED for 50 YEARS to get my pensions and NEVER claimed ANY benefits from the UK in all that time.

Paying my pensions into a foreign country is making it impossible for younger people to get ahead. I must send that to my 35 year old son who is a regional manager for Renault cars now after losing his job 3 times in 5 years. He would appreciate the joke.

I don't get free prescriptions, medical help, free hospital treatment, free bus pass, free TV licence and a host of other things that are available to people in the UK.

None of my pensions are LAVISH by the way and just to keep you happy I pay INCOME TAX to the UK as well to keep your freeloaders in benefits.

[StreetCowboy]

I would suggest that the UK paying out 4 pensions for 15 years to a foreign country to someone moaning about how workshy the Brits are working to pay those pensions is a big reason for the decline.Time to end the lavish pensions on the backs of the young for the baby boomers that makes it impossible for the young to get ahead and time to stop the loss of foreign currency through pensions being paid out to people who think they should be able to live outside the UK yet still claim support from the British still working in the UK

He has 4 pensions,mostly private pensions I would think,so he paid for them,in the hope he would be able to enjoy his later years without worrying about money. He could of course have gone out every evening and pissed the money on beer etc,but no He was responsibly. Now your saying he's making it impossible for the younger people to get ahead.rubbish.

I've no objection to "money purchase" pensions - in fact, I think it is commendable that people invest and create jobs, so that in the future the pensioner can live off his savings. I feel somewhat hard done by labouring to support pensioners on final salary schemes or defined benefits, when the money to fund those benefits was not set aside when those people were working. But even if you complain, no-one listens, so you might as well not bother...

SC

[StreetCowboy]

I have put more than half my cash in Thai assets, and some time ago changed most of the rest (then GBP) to $US at 1.896 average.

The point being that at that time everyone was saying the $ was finished, dead, suicide. Time had someone lighting a cigarette with a $ bill on the cover.

I still about 10% in GBP.

The question being......can anyone bring a persuasive case why action (selling or buying GBP, or $ for that matter) is advised or ill advised?

If you spend Baht I would continue to hold USD, that will hedge you against GBP and THB, I think. Like it or not USD remains the reserve currency and all export bills in Thailand are settled in USD hence the Baht is unlikely to be allowed to get too strong.

neither the reserve currency status nor the export bills prevented THB to strengthen 35% vs USD during the last decade

in absolute terms, the home i built in 2005/2006 would today be exactly 210,000 Dollars more expensive, assuming that prices of building materials are the same (which they are not).

Do you not mean that the dollars are 35% cheaper (I know, 25% cheaper is the opposite of 33% more expensive...). Anyway, why do people assume that money has a fixed value? It is a transient asset worth nothing until it is invested or spent

SC

[pipchatel]

"I would suggest that the UK paying out 4 pensions for 15 years to a foreign country to someone moaning about how workshy the Brits are working to pay those pensions is a big reason for the decline.Time to end the lavish pensions on the backs of the young for the baby boomers that makes it impossible for the young to get ahead and time to stop the loss of foreign currency through pensions being paid out to people who think they should be able to live outside the UK yet still claim support from the British still working in the UK"

YES ALL PRIVATE PAID PENSIONS. I too have never had benfits,The last 15 years no burden on the National health. God there really are some strange 'Areosoles' here.

[sms747]

Just because the OP appears to be well off doesn't mean to say he's not feeling the squeeze.

We all want to live the life that we are accustomed, if not better, and having the children privately educated is at huge additional expense.

The guy is worried like everyone else.

He's still getting 30-40% more from his pensions than he was getting when he originally came here.

Seems greedy to me.

Rubbish 17 years ago the rate was higher than it is now

[CMTourist]

I would suggest that the UK paying out 4 pensions for 15 years to a foreign country to someone moaning about how workshy the Brits are working to pay those pensions is a big reason for the decline.Time to end the lavish pensions on the backs of the young for the baby boomers that makes it impossible for the young to get ahead and time to stop the loss of foreign currency through pensions being paid out to people who think they should be able to live outside the UK yet still claim support from the British still working in the UK

He has 4 pensions,mostly private pensions I would think,so he paid for them,in the hope he would be able to enjoy his later years without worrying about money. He could of course have gone out every evening and pissed the money on beer etc,but no He was responsibly. Now your saying he's making it impossible for the younger people to get ahead.rubbish.

I've no objection to "money purchase" pensions - in fact, I think it is commendable that people invest and create jobs, so that in the future the pensioner can live off his savings. I feel somewhat hard done by labouring to support pensioners on final salary schemes or defined benefits, when the money to fund those benefits was not set aside when those people were working. But even if you complain, no-one listens, so you might as well not bother...

SC

Exactly. The defined benefit schemes were all ponzi schemes that they're desperately trying to keep going on the backs of the young.

Invested money and living on the returns from that is totally different.

My bet is that the 4 pensions mentioned are not that type, but are the type where benefits are not or only partly linked to contributions or returns on investment. Which means they are transfers of unearned wealth from young to old.

Old people don't seem to get that, shouting they paid in for 40,50 or 110 years. How much did you pay in though? Less than 10% of earnings I'd bet when the real contribution rate to really pay the benefits received would be several orders higher.