Pollsters Puzzle Over How They Got Predictions Wrong: Bangkok Governor Race

[webfact]

POLL
Pollsters puzzle over how they got predictions wrong
Budsarakham Sinlapalavan
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- Pollsters yesterday defended themselves against critics attacking their credibility, academic merit and neutrality after most came up with inaccurate poll results that projected Pheu Thai Party candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen beating Democrat Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

Most pollsters, except Nida Poll, gave wrong projections for both pre-election and exit polls over who would be the winner in the governor's race.

Bansomdej poll chief Sing Singkachorn also pointed out about error margins, saying according to academic statistics, exit polls carry an error margin, and the exit poll of the Sunday governor election had an error margin of 2 per cent.

In reality, the margin of the scores between Sukhumbhand and Pongsapat was 1.5 per cent.

Blame put on lack of time

He blamed time restrictions as the cause of error, saying the fact that exit polls collected data for only half of the day could result in inaccurate projections.

He said if pollsters used advanced technology so they could collect data longer, they might be able to reduce errors.

Nida poll chief Suwicha Pao-aree said the inaccurate exit poll results was a result of technical errors and not intentional.

First, the pollsters collected data for only the half-day, since they needed time to process the information.

Second, respondents did not give truthful answers because they did not trust the poll. He said this could be solved by avoiding face-to-face surveying and adopting phone-call surveys.

He said to restore public faith, pollsters who made wrong projections must review their methods and find out what went wrong.

Bangkok poll chief Kittisak Promrat defended his agency's neutrality and the academic merit of its polls during the Bangkok governor's race.

He said there were several factors that affected the accuracy of the poll, from the current political division to different cultures and norms.

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

Errors to be analysed

He said he would call a meeting of academics and lecturers at the Bangkok University to analyse any errors and consider whether exit polls were suitable with the Bangkok governor's election and national elections - or not.

Abac Poll chief Noppadon Kannikar said his agency did not need to overhaul the way it has been conducting polls, because it had followed correct procedures.

He blamed the media, saying they failed to report error margins that pollsters indicate in every poll.

Abac Poll didn't take an exit poll but he said the errors in the survey could result from two factors: errors caused by not choosing correct samples or respondents, and errors caused by respondents not giving truthful answers.


-- The Nation 2013-03-05

[OzMick]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

Edited March 4, 2013 by OzMick

[tominbkk]

Because they suck at their job.

[Thai at Heart]

The funniest one is a letter demanding in the other paper demanding that people resign for getting it wrong.

It's a poll, not brain surgery.

[hellodolly]

Thai academia defends it's inability to take an intelligent poll.

For the exit poll's I can see room for a large error but the rest of them just plain

three stooges type work.

What do people expect from people who claim to know more about water management than the Dutch.

[dickyknee]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

[h90]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

And if you got 300 Baht for voting PTP you won't tell that you voted someone else.....

[monkeycountry]

Well, in their defence, history has proven over and over that Thailand is not a hub of statistics and math :-)

[muttley]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

If the fear of repercussions is not justified (which it plainly isn't - when did you last hear of red vs red violent encounter) and as you admit, the only perception of the PTP and their "Red Thugs" is that coming from your side of the fence, not the UDD members.

Why do you continue to post these derogatory posts about the UDD?

If you read the OP above you would have noticed that there was another reason put forward for the results to favour the PTP Candidate, and it wasn't your perceived threats:

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

KISS.

[muttley]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

[ThaidDown]

After just voting and then being quizzed by a (possibly pushy) pollster the voters were just too polite to say 'p*ss off, it's none of your business' and gave an answer that they thought would please the inquisitor, irrespective as to whom they actually voted for.

[dickyknee]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

Edited March 5, 2013 by dickyknee

[Bagwan]

The coffee hasn't started to take effect yet so can somebody help me out? What is the point of an exit poll? So that somebody can get a late bet on before the official results (maybe to be later amended in a court of law) are announced?

In the UK on the few occasions that I was called upon to vote, my attitude to all those eager beavers stationed at the exits from polling stations clutching their clipboards was 'why do you need to know? Isn't this supposed to be a secret vote?'

[Pimay1]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

Please go easy on Mr. Muttley. Judging from his prior posts English is not his first language.

[BKKBrit]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

Perhaps you could be more articulate in what you want to say but your statement clearly insinuates that the the PTP/Red Shirts were providing armed security. Any photos or statements in the media indicating that people were intimidated by these armed mates of PTP candidates? That would be nice to validate your hyperbole.

[dickyknee]

i didn't say anything about about armed UDD

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

Perhaps you could be more articulate in what you want to say but your statement clearly insinuates that the the PTP/Red Shirts were providing armed security. Any photos or statements in the media indicating that people were intimidated by these armed mates of PTP candidates? That would be nice to validate your hyperbole.

my statement clearly states that it was the PTP candidates mates who were armed, not what you think it clearly insinuates.

people with guns are intimidating, do i need to validate that?

[kimamey]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

If the fear of repercussions is not justified (which it plainly isn't - when did you last hear of red vs red violent encounter) and as you admit, the only perception of the PTP and their "Red Thugs" is that coming from your side of the fence, not the UDD members.

Why do you continue to post these derogatory posts about the UDD?

If you read the OP above you would have noticed that there was another reason put forward for the results to favour the PTP Candidate, and it wasn't your perceived threats:

>He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

KISS.

There are many possible reasons for the inaccuracy and the perception of the PTP and/ or red shirts with regards to violence may well be one of them although I doubt it's the whole answer. If it was part of the problem and assuming that it's unjustified then work needs to be done to correct the perception. It's no different than the Dems being viewed as not representing the poor and that picture being in need of change if they wish to be elected nationally.

'If the fear of repercussions is not justified (which it plainly isn't - when did you last hear of red vs red violent encounter) and as you admit, the only perception of the PTP and their "Red Thugs" is that coming from your side of the fence, not the UDD members.'

Either I'm losing my powers of understanding or the above statement doesn't make sense.

I agree that some on here continue to post derogatory posts about the UDD but then don't you do the same in the opposite direction?

[monkeycountry]

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

Perhaps you could be more articulate in what you want to say but your statement clearly insinuates that the the PTP/Red Shirts were providing armed security. Any photos or statements in the media indicating that people were intimidated by these armed mates of PTP candidates? That would be nice to validate your hyperbole.

I read the comment earlier, and had no problem understanding exactly what was written. It did not even occur to me that the OP was suggesting 10,000 armed red shirts. I thought the PTP candidate's mates were the police, since he is himself a police officer.

I therefore agree with the OP, learn to read! Of course if you really like or hate a specific group, then that does tend to influence ones perception of issues related to that group.

Edited March 5, 2013 by monkeycountry

[monkeycountry]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

If the fear of repercussions is not justified (which it plainly isn't - when did you last hear of red vs red violent encounter) and as you admit, the only perception of the PTP and their "Red Thugs" is that coming from your side of the fence, not the UDD members.

Why do you continue to post these derogatory posts about the UDD?

If you read the OP above you would have noticed that there was another reason put forward for the results to favour the PTP Candidate, and it wasn't your perceived threats:

>He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.<

/span>

KISS.

There are many possible reasons for the inaccuracy and the perception of the PTP and/ or red shirts with regards to violence may well be one of them although I doubt it's the whole answer. If it was part of the problem and assuming that it's unjustified then work needs to be done to correct the perception. It's no different than the Dems being viewed as not representing the poor and that picture being in need of change if they wish to be elected nationally.

'If the fear of repercussions is not justified (which it plainly isn't - when did you last hear of red vs red violent encounter) and as you admit, the only perception of the PTP and their "Red Thugs" is that coming from your side of the fence, not the UDD members.'

Either I'm losing my powers of understanding or the above statement doesn't make sense.

I agree that some on here continue to post derogatory posts about the UDD but then don't you do the same in the opposite direction?

I for one, and I am probably not the only one, fear the UDD, and therefore find it immensely important to continue to remind everyone who the UDD is, and what they may become. First, red shirt villages to brainwash the farmers. Remember the taxi driver who said red shirt radio informed red shirts that Thailand's undergound held more oil than Saudi Arabia, and that the rich were secretly pumping it up and selling it? Then once they are brainwashed, use them as an army to attack Bangkok and/or anyone they disagree with .... Oh wait, that already happened, sorry, my bad!

[Payboy]

Pollsters puzzle over how they got predictions wrong

You think they'd run a poll to find out?

[jamhar]

These Thai pollsters were just as bad as the republican pollsters were in the US this past year!

[bigbamboo]

It's extraordinary that all the pollsters should be so way off the mark but if you think about it there is one stand out reason for why so may said they would vote PTP and didn't.

Fear.

Edited March 5, 2013 by bigbamboo

[Publicus]

Collecting exit poll data for only half the time the polling stations are open is half-arsed stupid and begging for big trouble.

It's not acceptable for polling organizations who collected exit poll data for half the voting time to say the reason was that they needed the other half of the voting time to sort the data to (wrongly) report half-baked results.. Perhaps such polling organizations should be introduced to a desk, or even a pocket calculator.

I notice internationally that polling organizations' exit polling in country after country consistently overstate the strength of the frontrunner. And who says candidate x is the frontrunner? The polling organizations say candidate x is the frontrunner. Thailand is one of the many countries that prohibit release to the public of private polling data from a certain number of days before voting day(s). Such laws unneccessarily restrict freedom of press and speech and contributed mightily to the polling fiasco that occurred in Sunday's election of Bangkok governor.

For the record, I'm more than pleased by the outcome, so congrats go to Gov Sukhumbhand Paribatra and to the D party generally. The D party can't win national elections but do well consistently in Bangkok governor elections.

Edited March 5, 2013 by Publicus

[hellodolly]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

If the fear of repercussions is not justified (which it plainly isn't - when did you last hear of red vs red violent encounter) and as you admit, the only perception of the PTP and their "Red Thugs" is that coming from your side of the fence, not the UDD members.

Why do you continue to post these derogatory posts about the UDD?

If you read the OP above you would have noticed that there was another reason put forward for the results to favour the PTP Candidate, and it wasn't your perceived threats:

>He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

KISS.

Ha doggy

Why are you defending half thought out polls. The PT wanted a poll that said they were going to win paid for it and got it. If the Democrats wanted one they would have paid for it and got one showing them as the winners. Are you new to Thailand the hub of what do you want proven we have a poll to prove it.

Perhaps the PT had the polls taken because they knew they were behind and figured polls showing them as the favorite would sway the Democrats to their side. A complete no go.

[hellodolly]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

He reads fine. Just twists it to make the paymaster look good.

[Ian Curtis]

Mind you, we must consider how difficult it must be to get accurate predictions from performing a survey. When you think about it, a 'direct question' must be posed and further, a truthful response must occur!!! I've yet to see how that's possible? Maybe I haven't lived here long enough?

[Publicus]

Mind you, we must consider how difficult it must be to get accurate predictions from performing a survey. When you think about it, a 'direct question' must be posed and further, a truthful response must occur!!! I've yet to see how that's possible? Maybe I haven't lived here long enough?

I'd say you nailed it, what ever time you may have been here.

[happysanook]

Because they suck at their job.

Given all the variables, I'm shocked they can guess an election with hundreds of thousands of votes within 2% before it even happens.

[khaowong1]

For the exit poll results to be swayed towards PTP, voters have claimed to have voted for them when they did not. Why would they do that, if not fear of repercussions were their vote known.

That fear may not be justified, but says a lot of the perception of PTP and their red thugs.

And the fact is probably, they were paid a large amount of money by the PTP to sway the poll in their favor, in the hopes that the voting public would go along and vote the way the poll indicated. Now their standing around with their d***s in their hands saying, who me?

[muttley]

He said he noticed that Pheu Thai Party supporters were more confident in expressing their political opinions, while the Democrat supporters were not so expressive.

with a 10000 PTP supporting red-shirts and the PTP candidates mates providing armed security at the polling stations, it this at all surprising?

I think its very suprising. 10,000 UDD armed UDD supporters providing security?

Could you turn down the Hyperbole amplifier next time?

i didnt say armed UDD supporters providing security, I said the PTP candidates mates were providing armed security. learn to read.

Oh thats better, a far more sensible quote, Instead of 10,000 armed UDD supporters providing security we have 10,000 mates of PTP providing armed security at the polling stations

And yes it is still suprising, if not a complete lie.