Premature Deep South Talks May Soon Be On Life Support

[webfact]

BURNING ISSUE
Premature deep South talks may soon be on life support
Avudh Panananda
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- The peace dialogue aimed at quelling violence in the deep South is apparently in danger of an untimely death caused by its premature birth.

Two leaders, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, made haste to bring about the dialogue. The pair tried to secure peace at their whim, regardless of whether conditions were ripe for striking a deal.

From Najib's point of view, the violence in Thailand's southern border provinces had the potential to spread into Malaysia.

The Malaysian security risk is minimal but real because should the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) succeed in establishing its goal of a Patani State, it would claim part of Malaysia's Kelantan state.

Najib is not an altruistic neighbour who wishes nothing but the best for Thailand. He wants to broker a Thai peace that serves Malaysia's security interests.

Thaksin sees himself an invincible leader with one blemish on his record - after years of remaining dormant, the southern insurgency resumed under his watch in 2004.

He has no one but himself to blame for triggering and fuelling the violence. To his credit, he did not just admit making a series of mistakes but tried to rectify them as well.

Before and after he was ousted from power in 2006, he mobilised the best and the brightest from around the world to help him map out a winning formula to counter the insurgency.

The problem was that he was looking for a quick fix while the strife-torn region needed a long-term solution.

The situation stabilised after 2009 but was not resolved. Soldiers and civilian officials managed to rethink their strategies.

Even though the Democrats and their Pheu Thai rivals may claim otherwise, the southern border provinces are jointly administered by soldiers and civilian officials, while politicians remain on the sidelines.

Since the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra came to power in 2011, Thaksin has again turned his full attention on the South. He is determined to ensure he stamps his legacy in the region.

This time around, Thaksin and Najib face a new set of circumstances, which make them natural allies.

Since last year, Najib has planned for a snap election, although he worries about his rival Anwar Ibrahim making further inroads in northern Malaysia. He obviously wants to divert Anwar's political trajectory away from winning power.

Since Anwar is seen as close to Thailand's Democrats, Najib has opted to drift towards Thaksin, because northern Malaysia is closely linked to Thailand's South, seen as the stronghold of Thailand's main opposition party.

Last week Anwar curiously took time off from his campaign trial for the May 5 poll to meet ranking Democrats in Hat Yai.

Thaksin has likely been courting Najib because he sees the Malaysian prime minister as his last hope for reaching out to and reasoning with the insurgents.

At Najib's suggestion last year, he met with a number of BRN leaders in Kuala Lumpur. Najib and he subsequently hatched the idea of a dialogue to address grievances in the strife-torn region.

Thaksin hand-picked National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Patanathabutr to handle the dialogue. This happened without consulting with and forming a consensus among security agencies, including the armed forces.

Meanwhile, Najib designated his intelligence chief from the so-called Research Division of the Prime Minister's Department to organise the dialogue and screen BRN leaders seen as pro-Malaysia.

The majority of Malaysia's security establishment had no involvement in Najib's mediation efforts to bring about the dialogue.

It is to be hoped that Najib and Thaksin know what they are doing. If not, the turmoil in the South could worsen.

-- The Nation 2013-04-12

[lemonjelly]

(line 14) 'Before and after he was ousted from power in 2006, he mobilised the best and the brightest from around the world to help him map out a winning formula to counter the insurgency.'

Would Mr Pananda please enlighten us as to who these 'best and brightest from around the world' are ?

[Locationthailand]

"... Since the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra came to power in 2011, Thaksin has again turned his full attention on the South. He is determined to ensure he stamps his legacy in the region...."

He already did that with the suffocation deaths of so many. And what a ridiculous headline from The Nation...

[rubl]

Two men trying to force through a peace useful to themselves without much thought on the people involved. IMHO

[tragickingdom]

Isn't it that what all parties involved want? The sudden uprise in violence is surely funded by rogue military generals. Prayuth and his cronies have nothing to win by peace and so have the terrorists or the opposition.

After all all military commanders are driving big cars from which the monthly fuel bill already exceed their salaries, they have a great number of properties that have to be funded. Being it either by trading weapons to the not so enemy and by spending huge sums of money from secret allocations and siphoning money off. The next fake bombscanner with a 2000% profit margin is there already. Zeppelins must fly too and it shows that Thailand is still ruled by people born in the time that those big airships were in fashion and drones did not exist.

On the other hand we have insurgents who can extort local businesses for money, being it for their cause or for protection. They surely will receive large sums from countries that are know terrorist sponsors like Saudi Arabia and Iran. The money will be officially allocated for mosques and schools but are going straight in the pockets of the insurgents. And than we have the opposition whose voters come from the troubled South. imagine that the problem is solved. They would be obsolete within a minute and that touches the judges in kangaroo courts who live for the royalists.

So there will be no peace not even a chance on it for years to come.

[rubl]

Nice rant, tragic. The anti-military part is off topic and non related. The terrorist part might be partially true, but some have seen the 'light' and fight for it. And then we have Democrat party 'only' relying on the deep South, very much besides the truth, assuming you only mean the Southern most three provinces.

All in all I wonder why I even bother to reply to this type of mis-information.

[justathought]

not surprised when justice or peace was never on the table.

[JCaligula]

If you are not sure of what this writer talking about then you are not aware about the history related to this topic,so just say you don't know.According to the writer Avudh,of her opinion is correct based on facts whatis going on in east north of Malaysia which is Kelantan a close neighbor of Pattani.They share the same dialect of both languages southern Thai and Malay mix and they are the only ones who obtained two different ID's of Thai and Malysian as you can see many of them in Muslim dominated markets in Bangkok. And about Najib and Taksin,Anwar and Democrat is precisely accurate.The writer was well informed.

[waza]

The Bangkok election is over and the Malaysian election will be soon, so watch this peace process fade away. Those that have lost their lives or been seriously wounded because of this farce are just more of Thaksins cannon fodder.

[hellodolly]

"... Since the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra came to power in 2011, Thaksin has again turned his full attention on the South. He is determined to ensure he stamps his legacy in the region...."

He already did that with the suffocation deaths of so many. And what a ridiculous headline from The Nation...

Actually he is interfering in the peace process because he dosen't want it to go through.

Part of the resolution for the problem would be to make Thaksin accountable for his part in it. And he does not want that. Being the type of man he is he would rather see the insurgency be an on going event.

Kind of like Hitler trying to bring peace to the world.

If the peace talks reach the life support status that will be an upgrade.

[tomyummer]

The headline reads like a baby going into an incubator or something.

[justathought]

"... Since the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra came to power in 2011, Thaksin has again turned his full attention on the South. He is determined to ensure he stamps his legacy in the region...."

He already did that with the suffocation deaths of so many. And what a ridiculous headline from The Nation...

Actually he is interfering in the peace process because he dosen't want it to go through.

Part of the resolution for the problem would be to make Thaksin accountable for his part in it. And he does not want that. Being the type of man he is he would rather see the insurgency be an on going event.

Kind of like Hitler trying to bring peace to the world.

If the peace talks reach the life support status that will be an upgrade.

I would not say that Thaksin does not wish to see peace. He does not know how to go about it. During the time he was in power, he supported the Thai army that pilled up bodies 8 deep saying that 'they would not have died if they had not been fasting (ramadan time)'. Governments like him know precisely how to achieve peace but they wish to follow some other evil agenda. All sorts of prejudices, greed & self interest block justice.