Opinion: Demographic Shifts That Will Affect Thailand's Future

[francescoassisi]

I am unsure whether to belive the statistics and esp the projections.

Factors that may greatly alter all the age cohorts

1 War and while North Korea isnt expected soon Thailand has had conflicts internal and with all of its neighbours plus major conflicts in Burma,Shan and Malaysia could splill over.A China India nuclear exchange could be as deadly as smoking or the MacFodda diet,

2 Earthquakes,Tsunamis and other natural events are unpredictable.

3 Public Health epideics could hit any age ,young form peri-natal or school transmission

4 The sexually active could succumb to a more virulent transmission or be eaten by internal parasites.

4 Geriatrics may be more prone to bird flu and other outbreaks while better pensions may lead to longevity etc.I believ no longtitudinal study has been done on premature mortality due to drug abuse esp YabbaDabba don;t.

5 Birth rates and fertility can all rise and fall for religiuos ,cultural and economic reason as the1 child policy.

6 Mass immigration or emigration always taked a while to be recognized just as USA has sucked inillegals this may occur if Thailand booms inAsean and will be encouraged by employers and corruption.

7 Equally if ASEAN leads to far higher incomes in Anglopone Malaysia or the sleeping dragon that is Indonesia Thais might head there or anywhere they can ,Yinan ,Inda if things are really dire at home due to endless corruption.

I claim no specal knowledge but forecasting seems to have along way to go in a country that has problems with such new fangled stuff as water and 3G.

As they discovered in Ireland when Lloyd George gave first 'free 'old age pensions folks will attempt to collect indefinately.

As developed economies have realized you can always import folks be they sexpats ,Royhingha or workers if you have the carrots.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Off to the funeral of a lovely old peasant who had 5 kids 2 wives and enjoyed 88 years without a car,vote or gun to help him survive 88 summers.

Have to say most of this is nonsense. The factors described above are largely erroneous but would apply to all nations rather than Thailand in particular, so nothing relatively would change.

[francescoassisi]

One of the main tenets of the Treaty of Rome (now the EU) was the free movement of labour. Nearly every time this happened in the EU someone started moaning. It remains to be seen if the same happens in ASEAN. If it doesn't the demographics could be completely different from anything prophecied here.

[spud67]

What a strange twisting of stats.

"If today one out of every six Thais is over 60, this figure will soon be one out of five. And in 20 or so years, this will be one out of four.
If you looked at the Thai population as if it were a pizza, and sliced it up into eight pieces according to age groups, the elderly would
represent only one slice, while people under 18 would represent three slices. Twenty-five years from now, the elderly will eat up two slices,
and the under-18s two slices. So, proportionally, there will be many more old people." - original post.

In the first sentence, the OP suggests the elderly proportion to the population is 1/6; therefore it will soon become 1/5 followed by 1/4. While the projected outcome may indeed be true it is not due to his stated causality. Using his math, we start with youth currently representing 3/8 of a pizza (<deleted>??? ); therefore they will soon become 1/2 and then 5/8 of the pizza. Add to that the elderly pizza (undoubtedly day-old and cold, hope you're hungover) of 1/4 and there is only 1/8 of the pizza remaining for the worker pizzas.

Keep science scientific! Otherwise it becomes a faith based institution and loses its reason for being.

[livinthailandos]

Didnt see anyone post a particular comment so thought I would, if thailand and other countries really want to see massive demographic shifts in terms of workers and elderly in real time then japan is the place to look as I understand it there already #1 in this issue right now. Google this topic but with japan as the primary area.

Sent from my using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[francescoassisi]

Shrinking populations in developed countries is a real and growing problem.

What is needed is young immigrants to fill the gap....until racist and xenophobic mind sets are overcome this will not happen quickly enough.

Edited July 28, 2013 by francescoassisi

[hellodolly]

It's part of the culture here that the young look after the older family members. The young go off to the cities and send money back to the family. Grand parents typically live in the same family house back in the village and get looked after by the other family members there. So problem is not so much the regular care, but medical bills. I believe the old do get free health care, but that does not include medicines or operations such as join repairs/replacements. These costs fall on the family.

True

Once a month I lay out 1.000 baht for a shot my mother in law gets.

She has a lot of free medical care once 4 days in the hospital no charge that I am aware of.

If there had been I would have been notified. I am sure that she paid the 30 or 50 baht entrance but that was it.

I know there are the Thai bashers that will say that is why Thai's marry Farongs. In my case it is a choice I married into a Thai family and take my place in it.

No regrets. 7 years of happiness.

[hellodolly]

How many Thais do you know who save regularly,how many have car or bike insurance not to mention health insurance,how many have a business acumen that fosters repeat custom,how many put away a little for their children's education,how many have a career plan?

Abraham Lincoln said...

“Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A Thai would most probably spend the first 2 hours making som tam the next 2 eating it and a further 4 hours sleeping off the full stomach under the trees shade,he'd make an excuse about the tree being sacred and thus could not be felled-and still demand payment, after all, he's got HIS future to consider!

Bike, car insurance, health insurance, boy are you ignorant !

Do you realize, that most of the Thais live below poverty level, with less then 10,000 THB a month to live on.

With this money they have to raise kids, pay food, rent, monthly payments on motorcycles, gas, school bills etc.

You try that !!

The most lazy people I know in this country are fellow ex-pats living of the benefits they receive from their home countries hanging out in sleazy bars every night drinking on a budget.

It is very easy to judge, when you are born in a country with a system in place, that provides you with certain securities and arrangements (like pensions etc.) as long as you work a regular job, for a boss, for a certain time in your life.

Not much thinking about YOUR future required there, is it now.

Both well wide of the mark.

Both culture and lack of welfare mean that S.E. Asia has some of the highest rates of saving percent of income in the world.

Even at low income levels people save for the inevitable rainy day. Just look at the preponderance of gold shops and ask yourself why.

Reminds me of years ago when my mother in law was in the hospital about 32,000 baht bill. the family was busy gathering gold to pay the bill. I had been in the family about two years and was in a posaition where I could pay it for them. Now if I pass away they still have there gold.

[Pimay1]

It's part of the culture here that the young look after the older family members. The young go off to the cities and send money back to the family. Grand parents typically live in the same family house back in the village and get looked after by the other family members there. So problem is not so much the regular care, but medical bills. I believe the old do get free health care, but that does not include medicines or operations such as join repairs/replacements. These costs fall on the family.

True

Once a month I lay out 1.000 baht for a shot my mother in law gets.

She has a lot of free medical care once 4 days in the hospital no charge that I am aware of.

If there had been I would have been notified. I am sure that she paid the 30 or 50 baht entrance but that was it.

I know there are the Thai bashers that will say that is why Thai's marry Farongs. In my case it is a choice I married into a Thai family and take my place in it.

No regrets. 7 years of happiness.

Good on you Dolly.