Gbp/thb Breaks 46

[Eesat]

The NFPs or Non-Farm Payrolls are out today,the first Friday in the month.They're the monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labour to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely.

The actual figure was 165k jobs created,the forecast was 140k and the previous month was 138k.

Since the decline of the Baht against the major currencies started around 22 April, the job figures you mentioned can not be the trigger, as they have only been issued yesterday...

so you would need to find the trigger around 21/22 April (for GBP, USD, EUR, CHF as examples) and then you could start to make assumptions whether that trigger might be sustainable and then be seen as a trend for the future development.

You're starting to look a little foolish now and here's why.As anyone can plainly see the payroll figures came out better than forecast,why would the baht strengthen on that news?Obviously quite the opposite would happen,the US Dollar would strengthen!

Can you point out anywhere where I mentioned it was a 'trigger' for the baht weakening?Of course you can't because I didn't!

I was pointing out for people that didn't know (yourself included obviously) that the single biggest piece of market moving data in the largest financial market in the world was out on the day I posted,yesterday.

I would suggest you analyse properly the figures posted before you go jumping in with anymore comments that may backfire and leave you with egg on your face again!

Edited May 4, 2013 by Eesat

[David48]

I'm not a currency trader,but it seems every economy in the world is trying to weaken its currency,australia has been trying for over 12months with no success,,my input would be if it looks like a good price and you need some baht, exchange some,

Just how has "australia has been trying ... trying to weaken its currency ... for over 12months with no success"?

.

[hansje1980]

pull up same timeframe chart of GBP/USD, it will tell a lot

[bunnaag]

I'd wait 'till it hits 70.

How old are you?

[chiang mai]

I'd wait 'till it hits 70.

How old are you?

70

[jackinbkk]

People lets not forget that a random set of events/currency pair values can look like a trend.

Look through enough data and you'll find what you want to find.

[pattayadingo]

1.00 GBP = 45.5419 THB

[phutoie2]

All currencies are up.. its just that the baht is down.. has nothing to do with Uk helping mother Sterling.

Crap. Try reading what's going on in the UK.

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[LburtonL]

1.00 GBP = 45.5419 THB

end of the world

[Eesat]

I'm not a currency trader,but it seems every economy in the world is trying to weaken its currency,australia has been trying for over 12months with no success,,my input would be if it looks like a good price and you need some baht, exchange some,

Just how has "australia has been trying ... trying to weaken its currency ... for over 12months with no success"?

.

It's succeeded now by lowering the interest rates to 2.75% a record low.AUD/USD is around 0.99 cents right now,below parity!

[NeverSure]

I'm not a currency trader,but it seems every economy in the world is trying to weaken its currency,australia has been trying for over 12months with no success,,my input would be if it looks like a good price and you need some baht, exchange some,

Just how has "australia has been trying ... trying to weaken its currency ... for over 12months with no success"?

.

It's succeeded now by lowering the interest rates to 2.75% a record low.AUD/USD is around 0.99 cents right now,below parity!

I think maybe that question about how Australia had been trying to weaken its currency was originally addressed to me.

I don't know of any developed country, or China, that isn't trying to hold the value of its currency down to help with exports.

Why wouldn't the USD/THB rate be near where it is when the fed rate in the US is .25%?

Here's a clue that is a guide to look for, and not necessarily always fact. If a country right now is paying a high interest rate, it needs to borrow money and has to pay that rate to attract it. GB and US can pay very little because the GBP and USD are simply considered safe havens. Those who's goal is safety will move money there. Those who are less risk averse and want higher yields will move to where rates are higher. You can almost figure out how the market perceives a country's finances by looking that the interest rate that country pays to borrow money.

For some reason I haven't quite figured out, people are snake-charmed into thinking that Thailand is a good place to put money. But Thailand's credit rating sucks, it has to pay a premium to sell its bonds even issuing some that are value protected, and it is borrowing money like there's no tomorrow. It's current hidden (unless you really look) debt for the rice scheme is probably 700 bil baht, or 1/3 of what it would like to borrow for a so-called high speed rail. Yet is hasn't figured out how it is going to pay the Agricultural Bank the money borrowed for the rice scheme.

Thailand can't really do a lot to lower its policy rate because it has to pay high rates to attract the money it needs. Let's not kid ourselves. Thailand is running high deficits and building debt, and a lot of it is hidden, or not counted, in at least three banks it owns that are upside down and need bailouts.

The value of the baht will drop when the market realizes that the unaudited claims by the IMF etc. about Thailand's finances aren't true.

[notmyself]

It's current hidden (unless you really look) debt for the rice scheme is probably 700 bil baht, or 1/3 of what it would like to borrow for a so-called high speed rail. Yet is hasn't figured out how it is going to pay the Agricultural Bank the money borrowed for the rice scheme.

Out of the 700 billion debt I can't see that the loss on the venture being lower than 400 billion. Thailand HAS to dump the rice and face the consequences (WTO) unless they give it away to Thai people.

[kannot]

Something to help you all with the currency fluctuations?