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Hi Fletch

Random thoughts on yr HYB Thai fund

1. Is this HYB to be paid in baht or could it come in directly from a foreign broker acct in $ you think (kinda don't expect you to know :-) )

2. Did you say the min was $100 k...that would be ok but wouldn't fancy too much more than that I think like Naam's $200k which is a trifle for him of course.whoops just checked r u saying it's $500k minimum and that's not sub divisible?

3. Did you find out yet how long this is open?

Thanks as always!

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Hi Cheeryble

If you mean the HYB IPO that UOB and TMB were launching I haven't seen any more on it. What I read said the IPO was closing 9 May. The amount I saw was only THB 500k rather than USD

I was going to wait until after launch when I could see more details. I had a look at both UOB and TMBAM websites and couldn't see anything on it

So I'll have to keep an eye out and check again later :)

Cheers

Fletch :)

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Hi Fletch

Random thoughts on yr HYB Thai fund

1. Is this HYB to be paid in baht or could it come in directly from a foreign broker acct in $ you think (kinda don't expect you to know :-) )

2. Did you say the min was $100 k...that would be ok but wouldn't fancy too much more than that I think like Naam's $200k which is a trifle for him of course.whoops just checked r u saying it's $500k minimum and that's not sub divisible?

3. Did you find out yet how long this is open?

Thanks as always!

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Hi Cheeryble

If you mean the HYB IPO that UOB and TMB were launching I haven't seen any more on it. What I read said the IPO was closing 9 May. The amount I saw was only THB 500k rather than USD

I was going to wait until after launch when I could see more details. I had a look at both UOB and TMBAM websites and couldn't see anything on it

So I'll have to keep an eye out and check again later :)

Cheers

Fletch :)

Aha....

Sounds like it will still be available after launch which presumably (assuming it sells out) means it's tradeable.....through YOB and TMB I guess?

Thanks for these heads ups Fletch very considerate!

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Always knew your dog was intelligent Dr.Naam.

I knew from the numerous posts that it had taken your crystal ball for prediction purposes.

Didnt realise it had the capital to access HYB markets though.

Interesting point though that the dog achieved over 50% in 2009 and yet you re happy to lock in 9.75% smile.png

Perhaps you should be rocking the dog's chair smile.png

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

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i don't like the expression "lock in" Fletch. whenever i buy i have in mind "can i sell 30 minutes later?"

2009 was a one in a life time opportunity. but many investors (and that includes me) were still shell shocked and hesitated to commit more than 5% of their total at a time. i did ~150 trades from mid march to mid october but (with hindsight) i was always too pussy-footing to commit "serious" money on a single position. if i had done that my '09 performance would have been in triple digits.

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Emerging markets: buy sell or hold?

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/emerging-markets-buy-sell-or-hold?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00MR_Daily%20update_open%20video%20(5)&utm_content=www_hl_co_uk_news_articles_eme&theSource=E00MR&Override=1&sp_mid=45014361&sp_rid=ZmxldGNodGhhaTY4QHlhaG9vLmNvbQS2

I like many of the EMs at the moment, and like the idea they are out of favour, and where I am adding to equities drip feeding/ baht/pound cost averaging into EMs is definitely up there...

Thailand down only 2% YTD....

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

most of the "out of favour" EMs raked in 8-10% capital gains plus fat interest year-to-day.

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Emerging markets: buy sell or hold?

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/emerging-markets-buy-sell-or-hold?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00MR_Daily%20update_open%20video%20(5)&utm_content=www_hl_co_uk_news_articles_eme&theSource=E00MR&Override=1&sp_mid=45014361&sp_rid=ZmxldGNodGhhaTY4QHlhaG9vLmNvbQS2

I like many of the EMs at the moment, and like the idea they are out of favour, and where I am adding to equities drip feeding/ baht/pound cost averaging into EMs is definitely up there...

Thailand down only 2% YTD....

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

most of the "out of favour" EMs raked in 8-10% capital gains plus fat interest year-to-day.

Yes since I posted that about 3 months or so back, there's been a nice pick up in many of the EM stock markets.

Thailand now up about 9% YTD. Indonesia now up 18% YTD and India 14%. Russia and China being notable exceptions.

Cheers

Fletch :)

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Always knew your dog was intelligent Dr.Naam.

I knew from the numerous posts that it had taken your crystal ball for prediction purposes.

Didnt realise it had the capital to access HYB markets though.

Interesting point though that the dog achieved over 50% in 2009 and yet you re happy to lock in 9.75% smile.png

Perhaps you should be rocking the dog's chair smile.png

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

i don't like the expression "lock in" Fletch. whenever i buy i have in mind "can i sell 30 minutes later?"

2009 was a one in a life time opportunity. but many investors (and that includes me) were still shell shocked and hesitated to commit more than 5% of their total at a time. i did ~150 trades from mid march to mid october but (with hindsight) i was always too pussy-footing to commit "serious" money on a single position. if i had done that my '09 performance would have been in triple digits.

Yes 2009 was a very good year. Virtually everything I held made money. EM equities like Russia, India and Brazil I held were in triple digits, even a UK equity fund up 99%. Thai equities very nice too up over 60% on my investments - not much above the index though which highlighted people were making money on anything and everything - a rising tide raises all boats and that.

For me it was a year of largely carrying on what I had always done. Investing for long term each month into equity markets. Then again I did similar in 2008 which didn't fare quite so well smile.png

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
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Emerging markets: buy sell or hold?

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/emerging-markets-buy-sell-or-hold?utm_source=Silverpop&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E00MR_Daily%20update_open%20video%20(5)&utm_content=www_hl_co_uk_news_articles_eme&theSource=E00MR&Override=1&sp_mid=45014361&sp_rid=ZmxldGNodGhhaTY4QHlhaG9vLmNvbQS2

I like many of the EMs at the moment, and like the idea they are out of favour, and where I am adding to equities drip feeding/ baht/pound cost averaging into EMs is definitely up there...

Thailand down only 2% YTD....

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

most of the "out of favour" EMs raked in 8-10% capital gains plus fat interest year-to-day.

Yes since I posted that about 3 months or so back, there's been a nice pick up in many of the EM stock markets.

Thailand now up about 9% YTD. Indonesia now up 18% YTD and India 14%. Russia and China being notable exceptions.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

as so often we are talking two languages Fletch. you talk stocks, i talk bonds wink.png

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So whats going to happen to the markets now?

anyone care to share (pun)

As always for me it depends on your objectives and time horizons

1) Investing for longer term I don't see anything changing the positive long term story, so I'll just be carrying on investing in LTFs/RMFs each month with baht cost averaging and added tax benefits and ignoring short term factors.

2) If investing long term via a lump sum, you might want to wait a little, as a good chance of cheaper prices. But then again risk missing out and not getting in at all if something crops up. These things can be unpredictable. Although you can read on the general TV blog how people "expected this and it was logical/ natural etc" (all with hindsight I might add) , in reality I don't know anyone that accurately called for martial law to be implemented at 3am last night. In the same way who's to say they don't all sniff kiss and make up on Friday at least in public to each other's faces. I doubt it, but you never know what's behind the scenes.

Because of this I won't be selling the large long positions in mutual funds I already have so will be holding.

3) If short term trading, my guess would be for a bit more short term weakness. Actually on my trading portfolio I'd already positioned myself by:

Writing/selling out of the money call SET50 index options, and even some in the money call options

Buying in the money or close to the money put SET50 options

Writing/selling out of the money SET50 put options

This was based on a good run so far this year, "sell in May" statistics and the possibility something may kick off one day, so hedge a bit just in case.

So it was a nice day today on the trading/ hedging side. (Obviously the investment side was a loss, but that's a temporary long term blip -1% only today). Nice to be able to operate both in tandem: long term large investments, short term trading/hedging a little, with the short term being leveraged by derivatives

I see a good chance of more weakness tomorrow, but will look to take some trading profits. As things stand as long as the market doesn't end June more than 5% higher or 15% lower than today I'll be happy with the trading. Needs to be monitored closely though and managed dynamically if necessary.

As I have large long term positions and looking for short term weakness, 1) and 3) apply to me. Then just hold what's invested already.

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
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I have to say when I wrote that something might happen by Friday, I wasn't expecting something so quick smile.png

..... These things can be unpredictable. Although you can read on the general TV blog how people "expected this and it was logical/ natural etc" (all with hindsight I might add) , in reality I don't know anyone that accurately called for martial law to be implemented at 3am last night. In the same way who's to say they don't all sniff kiss and make up on Friday at least in public to each other's faces. I doubt it, but you never know what's behind the scenes.

.....

Seems like instead of the sniff kiss and make up route, the general has given them all a slap instead smile.png

i.e. yesterday gave them a chance to work thru this like adults and gave them their "homework" to then come back and discuss like adults today. As they were still behaving like spoiled little children and couldn't behave like adults, it looks like the general came out and said well if you keep behaving like children, then I'll treat you like children. If you can't play together nicely, then I'll take away your priveleges, and you won't play at all. You're grounded. laugh.png

Hopefully will be the start of the resolution for this time round. The two main factions were never going to agree on anything. At least now someone will tell them how they are going to behave and move forward instead of having the kids argue all the time smile.png

So all in all for me, today looks like a positive move in getting the country moving again... That should be good for the market for now at least. On the other hand foreign investors and news people who don't understand the country may see it differently smile.png

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
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Below is an interesting article on Neil Woodford one of the UK's best known fund managers.

http://www.hl.co.uk/news/articles/neil-woodford-equity-income-in-numbers

It makes interesting reading in the context of active vs passive fund management.

On the whole I prefer actively managed funds to passive funds/trackers/ETFs (which some people prefer because of the lower fees), particularly in markets I know well, like UK and emerging markets.

I've been a holder of some of this guys funds for about 20 years, and very happy to not have gone the cheap fee/tracker/ETF option.

A word of caution he is changing companies, which can affect things, although in his case he looks like he's retaining a similar investment focus.

Another example was Anthony Bolton, who was manager of Fidelity Special Situations for nearly 3 decades, with superior performance to the market, and another fund I held for many years. I sold the fund some time after he left, but didn't go into his new funds as he went into China funds where he didn't seem to have the same history. He didn't replicate the same success in his new ventures.

So in my view if you're prepared to put in the effort and research it can really pay off investing in active managed funds vs simple trackers and ETFs

Cheers

Fletch :)

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  • 2 weeks later...

For those who like ETFs I came across the following link that I thought was useful today. It's a year or so old now, but still a reasonable start for looking further. I'm looking to shift some of my money around within Singapore. Unfortunately Singapore is expensive when it comes to mutual funds/unit trusts, with 5% initial fees being common.

This is money I like to keep parked offshore, so I didn't want to move the money back to the UK where I can enter for 0% initial charge, or bring into Thailand for 1%-1.5% initial charge for extra convenience.

On the whole I'm a bigger fan of active managed funds, but in Singapore the charges tend to be prohibitive:

----------------------------------------

"With interest expected to stay at near-zero levels for the foreseeable future, many investors have found it challenging to secure meaningful yields from asset classes that were once the core of income strategies. Gone are the days of Treasuries and high quality corporates yielding in excess of 5%; in the new era, sub-1% yields are increasingly common.

While finding high-yielding asset classes is challenging, it certainly isn’t impossible. There are dozens of ETFs (and ETNs) that offer potential for some big payouts, including some of the usual suspects as well as some lesser-known strategies. Below, we profile 101 high yielding ETFs across 10 different categories......................."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/101-high-yielding-etfs-every-130034721.html

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
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While finding high-yielding asset classes is challenging, it certainly isn’t impossible. There are dozens of ETFs (and ETNs) that offer potential for some big payouts, including some of the usual suspects as well as some lesser-known strategies. Below, we profile 101 high yielding ETFs across 10 different categories.......

Junk Bonds

51. Senior Loan Portfolio (BKLN)

12-Month Yield 5%

Dividend Rating B+

Expense Ratio .76%

200-Day Volatility 2.3%

This ETF targets a unique corner of the fixed income market: senior loans. These loans from banks to relatively high-risk issuers have the potential to deliver some attractive returns

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/101-high-yielding-etfs-every-130034721.html#Junk%20Bonds

cheesy.gif

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Thanks Fletch

Naam would you say it would be fair to reduce the bond yields by a % or two as the value of the underlying cash investment reduces with inflation?

Seems to me a big picture view would be that for the stock/div ETFS the yields pale compared to potential downside of an overvalued market, so this is the thing to avoid at all costs.

An example of a non bubble market might be Australia which has come way back since 09 more or less to it's long term line, so one might hope for 4+% yield and might expect the market to keep up with inflation as the long term market does, so essentially you're getting a TRUE yield of the 4% plus. (And add that at least Oz is based on something solid not hot air......though wonder if the housing market still in the bubble I heard of some years ago which potential drop can have a big effect even on a solid market.....property prices seem sustainable?)

Perhaps Naam's bond-focussed ETFs might be most suitable for the many (most?) areas where markets are well above their LTMA, but one will have to accept a modest reduction for inflation.

Cheeryble

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Edited by cheeryble
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Oh!

Before you rush out to buy a fund, there seems to be a discount sale on :-)

http://link.ft.com/r/CTBPCC/2CV1R1/72JH2H/XBZYCK/A4TVXJ/MQ/h?a1=2014&a2=6&a3=3

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To read that link you need to be registered with the FT.

The same news is available at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-01/blackrock-cuts-europe-etf-fees-in-race-with-vanguard-for-assets.html

However, it has nothing to do with Thailand, it's just that Blackrock has reduced its ETF fees for Europe.

It's also nothing to do with funds - it's for ETFs.

Edited by AyG
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It was by way of a very poor attempt at humour.

(Yes, my mother would say don't bother).

Note to self: never make witticisms without clearly marking them as such.

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Edited by cheeryble
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Thanks Fletch

Naam would you say it would be fair to reduce the bond yields by a % or two as the value of the underlying cash investment reduces with inflation?

Seems to me a big picture view would be that for the stock/div ETFS the yields pale compared to potential downside of an overvalued market, so this is the thing to avoid at all costs.

An example of a non bubble market might be Australia which has come way back since 09 more or less to it's long term line, so one might hope for 4+% yield and might expect the market to keep up with inflation as the long term market does, so essentially you're getting a TRUE yield of the 4% plus. (And add that at least Oz is based on something solid not hot air......though wonder if the housing market still in the bubble I heard of some years ago which potential drop can have a big effect even on a solid market.....property prices seem sustainable?)

Perhaps Naam's bond-focussed ETFs might be most suitable for the many (most?) areas where markets are well above their LTMA, but one will have to accept a modest reduction for inflation.

Cheeryble

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i have problems to understand/interprete your posting Cheeryble.

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While finding high-yielding asset classes is challenging, it certainly isn’t impossible. There are dozens of ETFs (and ETNs) that offer potential for some big payouts, including some of the usual suspects as well as some lesser-known strategies. Below, we profile 101 high yielding ETFs across 10 different categories.......

Junk Bonds

51. Senior Loan Portfolio (BKLN)

12-Month Yield 5%

Dividend Rating B+

Expense Ratio .76%

200-Day Volatility 2.3%

This ETF targets a unique corner of the fixed income market: senior loans. These loans from banks to relatively high-risk issuers have the potential to deliver some attractive returns

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/101-high-yielding-etfs-every-130034721.html#Junk%20Bonds

cheesy.gif

Haven't really had time to go thru the HYB etfs yet but this one did look particularly poor value. Even yahoo! said it looked expensive at the time they were writing the article :)

On the EM equity side No.25 DYVE looked interesting as an EM div paying fund.

From iShares which then has a nice list of all the other categories which is more up to date than that article.

Cheers

Fletch :)

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Having been thru the 101 ETF funds, looking for income yields. A lot of it was too US dominated for me, as I find the tax rules a nuisance, plus often Uncle Sam wants his share of witholding tax on funds, and European/Asian exchanges are better. So prefer i-Shares ETFS (Blackrock) from the European side

On the equity side, I prefer:

SEDY = Emerging Markets Dividend ETF with 3.5% yield

http://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251766/ishares-emerging-markets-dividend-ucits-etf

IAPD = Asia Pacific Dividend ETF with 4.39% yield, but a bit overly Australia focused

http://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251567/ishares-asia-pacific-dividend-ucits-etf

Cheers

Fletch :)

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Dr.Naam

For your thoughts? ... as you've a much wider interest in fixed income than me smile.png

It really is a struggle finding value in fixed income, but as only around 8% of my investment portfolio is currently in fixed income, I'd really like to add something. Particularly as cash earns next to nothing, and I've plenty equity exposure already. Any thoughts on the following:

1) iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF (O9P).

http://sg.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/SGX/O9P.htm

http://sg.ishares.com/product_info/fund/holdings/SGX/O9P.htm?periodCd=d

- Appeals because it is also listed on Singapore stock exchange (QL3 SGD version) so I can buy in SGD instead of having to convert in USD. SGD cash rate is abysmal, so would be nice to do something with spare SGD.

- Average YTM is 7%

- weighted ave maturity and modified duration are not overly long either 5.5 yrs and 3.8, which should give some time to reposition if rates starts to rise in a couple of years

- 41% of the fund is in China which is interesting, as I've very little China FI exposure

2) iShares Emerging Markets Local Government Bond UCITS ETF

http://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251724/ishares-emerging-markets-local-government-bond-ucits-etf

- Reasonable diversification over various countries and underlying currencies, bulk of it in 9 countries at around 10% each

- weighted average YTM 6.35%

Then as a benchmark:

3) iShares J.P. Morgan $ Emerging Markets Bond UCITS ETF

http://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251824/ishares-jp-morgan-emerging-markets-bond-ucits-etf

- doesn't look anything special

- wide coverage of countries

- average YTM only 4.92% but at least sovereign or quasi sovereign

- average maturity and modified duration are a bit long 11.6 yrs and 7.06, given rates may start rising one day/eventually in next few years

Or any other thoughts you have on where there may be value in bonds: sector/currency/countries etc?

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Edited by fletchsmile
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Anyone read that?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/731598-more-thais-to-default-on-their-loans-due-to-increased-household-debts-nesdb/?utm_source=newsletter-20140604-1409&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=news

Seems there might be some transcription errors but this part seems pretty alarming for anyone with exposure on the Thai market:

"The total debt per household stood at around 163,000 baht, which is a 9.95 percent increase from last year. At least 8 million households, which account for about 42.25 percent of all households in Thailand, are unable to earn enough income to cover their expenses."

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Looked a very poorly written article. Not at all clear what they are talking about. Probably also by a non-native English speaker. Not sure the original author actually understands what they are talking about either.

eg:

quote: "The NESDB reported that in 2014, most families would likely be unable to pay-off their debts in a timely manner, as non-performing loans (NPLs) among consumer loans rose as much as 31.3 percent.

- not clear what sort of debts they are talking about. If they are talking bank loans I would strongly disagree "most families"

- "rose by 31.3 percent". I think what they are trying to say is the NPLs in the sector may rise from about 3% to 4% (i.e an increase of a third)

quote: "During the first three months of this year, defaults on loans longer than a three month period has increased to 42 percent"

- Looks like they got the wrong preposition, and more likely should be "by". To put in context it's probably something like the above small % of total going to a bit bigger % of total on a particular category of loans

All in all, didn't really understand what the article was talking about. Bank NPLs have been rising a little, but from low bases.

Better to read something like Moody's Thailand banks review or a broker analysis of the Thai Banking sector

Bottom line: NPLs will probably increase this year. Thai banks are more than capable of absorbing the small increases talked about if articulated properly and put in context. NPLs on autoloans/ HP/ connusmer loans etc are likely to rise faster, but needs to be considered in the context of all a banks assets/loans and total NPLs

Cheers

Fletch :)

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Thanks Fletchsmile , I have looked further and indeed the article initially posted is mostly badly translated.

The Bangkok Post version seems more accurate as it appears the statement of the NESDB focuses on consumer loans

http://www.bangkokpost.com/most-recent/413371/bad-debts-soar-among-thai-consumers

Looking at another report from Fitch Ratings, more details :

"Thailand's household debt-to-GDP rose to 82.3% at end-2013, from 77.3% at end-2012, according to data published by the central bank on 31 March. The pace of growth has slowed, with household debt rising by only 11.4% in 2013. We expect the pace to slow further in 2014, because of the expiration of a car buyers' tax break, slower economic growth and a more cautious lending environment. The car tax incentive program expired at end-2012, but deliveries and related lending continued well into 2013."

"Asset quality at state policy banks would be more vulnerable in weaker economic conditions because they lend to lower-income households as part of their goal to improve financial access. State policy banks funded 29.5% of household loans at end-2013. But any deterioration in credit profiles would not directly affect their support-driven ratings, which are linked to the sovereign credit profile. We believe commercial banks can manage their household debt exposures because these have not reached excessive levels. They hold only 42.5% of total household debt; and their loan portfolios are fairly balanced, with only 30% in consumer loans. Commercial banks have also built up capital and loan-reserve buffers, giving some protection against more challenging conditions."

Full report here:

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSFit69550520140401?irpc=932

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  • 2 weeks later...

Bad news for those that invest in LTFs and RMFs

The Revenue Dept have announced they wont renew tax allowances for LTFs and RMFs at end of 2016. This is part of the tax reforms from NCPO.

Shame as LTFs have been an excellent investment for a decade and the tax allowance has always been a massive incentive.

Up to THB 175K to 185k a year back from the govt for LTFs has always been welcome. Similar for those doing RMFs

I guess there may be time for a future government to revise tax plans...

Cheers

Fletch :)

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Edited by fletchsmile
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Hmm bad news indeed.

Not sure how NCPO can be confident about ruling for a year where they would supposedly be out of charge already.

Let's just hope the government elected in 2015 - if any - has different views on how to encourage long term savings, especially in a country where household debt is not at is lowest.

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Bad news for those that invest in LTFs and RMFs

The Revenue Dept have announced they wont renew tax allowances for LTFs and RMFs at end of 2016. This is part of the tax reforms from NCPO.

Shame as LTFs have been an excellent investment for a decade and the tax allowance has always been a massive incentive.

Up to THB 175K to 185k a year back from the govt for LTFs has always been welcome. Similar for those doing RMFs

I guess there may be time for a future government to revise tax plans...

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I dont know to many Thais that can right off 500K per year in tax because they invested in RMF or LTF

so it was definitely geared towards the top end of town

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Bad news for those that invest in LTFs and RMFs

The Revenue Dept have announced they wont renew tax allowances for LTFs and RMFs at end of 2016. This is part of the tax reforms from NCPO.

Shame as LTFs have been an excellent investment for a decade and the tax allowance has always been a massive incentive.

Up to THB 175K to 185k a year back from the govt for LTFs has always been welcome. Similar for those doing RMFs

I guess there may be time for a future government to revise tax plans...

Cheers

Fletch smile.png

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

I dont know to many Thais that can right off 500K per year in tax because they invested in RMF or LTF

so it was definitely geared towards the top end of town

True.

500k was the cap tho and it was 15% of earned income.

On the other hand most Thais arent paying any direct income taxes in the first place.

In Thailand a small number of taxpayers pay most of the income tax. So just means they will be paying even more :)

Sent from my GT-I9152 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

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