Predictions, Election

[mark45y]

I say Thaksin Shinawatra party gets 400 seats in parliament.

[britmaveric]

I say Thaksin Shinawatra party gets 400 seats in parliament.

Landslide regardless...easy to win an election when the opposition doesnt run!

[jdinasia]

but amazing when you can stop your opponents simply by not running!

[jdinasia]

well define in Parlaiment .... the Demos are saying that the TRT will winn in approx all but 40-60 ....

TRT has said the margin may be worse for them ... that TRT may lose against 100 nobodies ....

I say that there won't be parlaiment ....

[steveromagnino]

well define in Parlaiment .... the Demos are saying that the TRT will winn in approx all but 40-60 ....

TRT has said the margin may be worse for them ... that TRT may lose against 100 nobodies ....

I say that there won't be parlaiment ....

400 as per initial prediction of JDasia's 440-460 is not enough to form a parliament, and then we will go through this whole process again while he looks over the country as a caretaker govt, and therefore nothing can get done.

I am guessing BKK and the South will be the only areas that TRT do not reach 20% of the votes cast, and then only some of the seats. Even 10 is enough to throw sand in the works and this is what the opposition have bet on.

However, since most of the electoral governing bodies are now stacked with TRT people, it is possible there could be just bi elections and some attempt to get things going; however my guess is that any subsequent vote will be even a worse result than the first.

TRT hope they lose against someone (who gets 20%+ of the vote); the only way the parliament gets into problems is if the winning candidate does not get 20% of the votes casts in that seat. I think that is right....hence why people should vote 'no vote' as a protest vote, and not for one of the psuedo TRT opposition (who have been paid to stand in some cases by TRT).

If it really was 400 - 450 seats only, then expect an announcement from someone senior (my guess) that the election is null and void, and a proper election will be held in 100 days as it should have been right at the beginning.

[sriracha john]

I predict the Hells Angels Party of Sacremento, California will not win any MP seats.

[Insight]

I might end up eating my words on Monday, perhaps because I'm almost completely surrounded by anti-Thaksin sentiment, but I reckon TRT are going to slump. I reckon less than 300 seats.

[Nilapat]

I would predict between 300 and 320.

It's going to be interesting to see how the handle the inevitable mess after the election. So many scenarios...

[Plus]

It's more ineresting how many total votes Thaksin gets. He promised that if it's less than 50% he'll resign.

For all his total majority he got only 60% of total vote in the last elections. I wonder how he hopes to get 50% now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand_legi...lection%2C_2005

For seat numbers - does anyone know where to find total votes results region by region, not just MPs - that would helpt to see in how many constituencies TRT may not get 20%.