Will the govt gamble with amnesty plan?: Thai editorial

[webfact]

EDITORIAL
Will the govt gamble with amnesty plan?
The Nation

Under increasing pressure from all sides, the administration might decide to throw caution to the wind, which could unleash a new and violent political storm

BANGKOK: -- The sky has darkened, the storms seem to be picking up strength, and downpours have hit some areas, but it's still relatively far from being a perfect storm for the Yingluck government. Not until it lurches into the totally forbidden zone called "amnesty", that is. Will a government that has always played it safe take that big gamble? Most analysts are betting it will.

A "lesser" risk would be to dissolve the House of Representatives and seek a fresh mandate in a new election. Speculation about an early election died down after the ruling Pheu Thai Party suffered a big by-election setback in Bangkok recently, but the government's new resolve to bolster the controversial rice price-pledging scheme has revived talk about a House dissolution. With everyone outside the government strongly opposed to the rice scheme, the government's refusal to bring down the guaranteed price of Bt15,000 per tonne is clear-cut political defiance that apparently needs the backing of a new mandate.

An early election would buy everyone some time. The "reconciliation" and "amnesty" bills wouldn't have to be rushed. Those opposing them wouldn't have to go for broke. Independent bodies like the Constitutional Court would see their collision with the Pheu Thai-dominated Parliament delayed.

It's questionable, though, whether House dissolution would deter renewed attempts to disband the ruling party. With the Central Administrative Court ruling that the government's water-management mega-projects require health and environment risk assessments, the opposition has sought to impeach the administration, accusing it of overstepping crucial legal procedures. The impeachment case promises new fireworks in the ongoing political crisis.

Then there are the issues of declining popularity, problems caused by the latest Cabinet reshuffle, and the red shirts' seemingly increasing frustration with the government. In addition to alleged massive corruption linked to the rice scheme, the water-management projects are being heavily scrutinised, with opponents of Thaksin Shinawatra leaving no stone unturned in an effort to link him to the projects' alleged irregularities. Chalerm Yoobamrung, upset by his ministerial "demotion", is sulking, and a sulking Chalerm is the equivalent of a rebel. Red-shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan has missed out on a Cabinet post again, raising more doubts about the government's relationship with his political movement.

What should Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra do if she decides against dissolving the House? One way is to deal with all the said problems as they come and hope that Pheu Thai's domination of Parliament and its still-massive political base will carry it through. The other way is to be more aggressive and send the controversial reconciliation and amnesty bills to the parliamentary floor.

One school of thought - from the hawkish side in the government - believes that if the bills are passed, everything else will be taken care of. But most people outside of the ruling party's circle reject the theory that these bills can bring political peace. Even pro-government media outlets, while supporting the bills, say the draft legislation could trigger a new round of political violence.

Technically, the bills can be passed whenever the government wants, because the parliamentary opposition is outnumbered. Politically, the bills could bring about dangerous uncertainties, and this is why the ruling camp has always taken a cautious approach.

The Pheu Thai hawks want to use the bills as a political offensive. With the government reeling from various issues, ranging from the murder of a key anti-government businessman to corruption allegations to a new impeachment threat, taking a gamble with the two bills might sound increasingly attractive.

There is only a slight chance that the hawks are right. What is more likely is that reactivating the bills will be the last required element for a perfect storm. Will Pheu Thai decide to bring in the missing piece? The answer could be just a few days away.


-- The Nation 2013-07-06

[LuckyLew]

They have been saying the same thing since PTP came into office

"political trouvble ... blah blah blah ...

[A Member]

Are they not under instruction from Dubai to sort amnesty out...Fast ?

[rametindallas]

They don't want to hold new elections because they are very expensive at Bt. 500 per vote (maybe more with the new inflation caused by the 300 Baht minimum wages). The Red Shirts/ UDD are not enthusiastic for the Party and the PTP will have to buy every vote they get. 2,000 votes cost 1 million Baht plus distribution costs, They need about 20,000,000 paid votes to be on the safe side plus paying off the local Provincial heads, Kamnans, Poo Yai Baans, field workers and organizers so it will cost Dr. Thaksin at least ten billion two hundred million Baht ($313 million or 206 GBP) to win a new election. After his overconfidence in the Bangkok Governor's election and their loss in the by-election in Don Mueang, that is a lot of money for a less-than-sure bet and failure to win would be catastrophic.

My guess is they will double down on the stupid (they are experts at that) and pass a lot of bills and hope the courts get so bogged down that it will be next century before all is decided. By that time, the money will have been distributed, spent, or shipped overseas, and the guilty parties will have retired, died, or fled the country.

[Chris Lawrence]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

[bigbamboo]

Obviously amnesty is top of their leader's wish list but you'd think maybe the government should concentrate their efforts on more pressing issues just now instead.

[whybother]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

The people at The Nation aren't Thai?

[hellodolly]

"reconciliation" and "amnesty"

With an amnesty passing you will just deepen the gulf in between the various parties involved.

Reconciliation will be set back 20 years.

[winstonc]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

The people at The Nation aren't Thai?

enlighten me then,,please,,regards

[khunken]

Obviously amnesty is top of their leader's wish list but you'd think maybe the government should concentrate their efforts on more pressing issues just now instead.

Well if the 'pressing issues' during the major floods are anything to go by, they'll do the same again - kowtow to the personal 'needs' of DL.

[Robby nz]

I suspect the 2.2 trillion will be the thing that takes top place on the to do list.

Once that is secured then am nasty will come to the fore.

Putting amnesty first would probably cause ructions that could jeoperdise obtaining the money.

[Chris Lawrence]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

The people at The Nation aren't Thai?

You need to read the headline at the very top.

Nation Multimedia Group Public Company Limited (Thai: บริษัท เนชั่น มัลติมีเดีย กรุ๊ป จำกัด (มหาชน)) is a media company based in Thailand. It has both on-line and off-line media like newspaper, television channels, books, magazines and web contents. Its address is 44 Moo 10 Bang Na-Trat KM 4.5, Bang Na, Bangkok 10260 Thailand. Its symbol at the Bangkok Stock Market is "NMG".

The Nation Multimedia Group's beginnings go back to 1971, when a new English language newspaper, The Voice of the Nation, was founded in Bangkok by some Thai journalists. The paper's name was eventually shortened to The Nation and the multimedia company grew up around it. Its shares were first listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1988 and it was registered as a public company in 1993.(Quoted from Wikipidia)

But the above sure sounds to me as a Thai Company.

What is your point? Or Whybother....

[Neilly]

Will the govt gamble with amnesty plan?

Well they've shot themselves in the foot quite a few times already so why not continue

[whybother]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

The people at The Nation aren't Thai?

You need to read the headline at the very top.

Nation Multimedia Group Public Company Limited (Thai: บริษัท เนชั่น มัลติมีเดีย กรุ๊ป จำกัด (มหาชน)) is a media company based in Thailand. It has both on-line and off-line media like newspaper, television channels, books, magazines and web contents. Its address is 44 Moo 10 Bang Na-Trat KM 4.5, Bang Na, Bangkok 10260 Thailand. Its symbol at the Bangkok Stock Market is "NMG".

The Nation Multimedia Group's beginnings go back to 1971, when a new English language newspaper, The Voice of the Nation, was founded in Bangkok by some Thai journalists. The paper's name was eventually shortened to The Nation and the multimedia company grew up around it. Its shares were first listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1988 and it was registered as a public company in 1993.(Quoted from Wikipidia)

But the above sure sounds to me as a Thai Company.

What is your point? Or Whybother....

You're the one that said "I thought it was a Thai editorial". It IS a Thai editorial.

What is your point?

[whybother]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

The people at The Nation aren't Thai?

enlighten me then,,please,,regards

Enlighten you with what? I asked a question.

[waza]

Its all a bit of a catch 22 situation, they need the 2.2 trillion baht loan to continue payments on the populist policies to maintain support, but the reds want amnesty now. They have been placated with the 2 billion baht compensation for the red prisoners but it wont last. Thaksin need constitutional change to remove all checks and balances this will solve the party dissolution issues and effect his white wash. My guess is they will grab the cash, then push through amnesty and constitutional change then dissolve parliament to gain another mandate to rule.

Edited July 6, 2013 by waza

[Noistar]

Its all a bit of a catch 22 situation, they need the 2.2 trillion baht loan to continue payments on the populist policies to maintain support, but the reds want amnesty now. They have been placated with the 2 billion baht compensation for the red prisoners but it wont last. Thaksin need constitutional change to remove all checks and balances this will solve the party dissolution issues and effect his white wash. My guess is they will grab the cash, then push through amnesty and constitutional change then dissolve parliament to gain another mandate to rule.

They've obviously factored-in that their opponents will sit on the sidelines and do nothing, while all this is going on.

The fact that laws are applied selectively will obviously be in the Government's favour.

Are PTP arrogant or just - to put it politely - uneducated?

[Chris Lawrence]

And I thought it was a Thai editorial? Its from the Nation, or their school of thought.

The people at The Nation aren't Thai?

You need to read the headline at the very top.

Nation Multimedia Group Public Company Limited (Thai: บริษัท เนชั่น มัลติมีเดีย กรุ๊ป จำกัด (มหาชน)) is a media company based in Thailand. It has both on-line and off-line media like newspaper, television channels, books, magazines and web contents. Its address is 44 Moo 10 Bang Na-Trat KM 4.5, Bang Na, Bangkok 10260 Thailand. Its symbol at the Bangkok Stock Market is "NMG".

The Nation Multimedia Group's beginnings go back to 1971, when a new English language newspaper, The Voice of the Nation, was founded in Bangkok by some Thai journalists. The paper's name was eventually shortened to The Nation and the multimedia company grew up around it. Its shares were first listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand in 1988 and it was registered as a public company in 1993.(Quoted from Wikipidia)

But the above sure sounds to me as a Thai Company.

What is your point? Or Whybother....

You're the one that said "I thought it was a Thai editorial". It IS a Thai editorial.

What is your point?

You said in your first post in reply, the people at the Nation aren't Thai? Its listed on the stock market with the editor in chief being Thai?

I don't believe The Nation is a great paper for a Thai editorial. They serve the elitists of Thai society with a very conservative view. Many of their reports do not have facts in them, but an opinion usually formed by the reporter. The reporter usually does not set out how their opinion was formed.

You sound like my ex-wife. Make a statement that is not factual and wants to continue to argue.

I still don't understand what you are trying to say or prove?

[whybother]

You said in your first post in reply, the people at the Nation aren't Thai? Its listed on the stock market with the editor in chief being Thai?

I don't believe The Nation is a great paper for a Thai editorial. They serve the elitists of Thai society with a very conservative view. Many of their reports do not have facts in them, but an opinion usually formed by the reporter. The reporter usually does not set out how their opinion was formed.

You sound like my ex-wife. Make a statement that is not factual and wants to continue to argue.

I still don't understand what you are trying to say or prove?

I wasn't making a point. I was asking a question.

You said in your first post "I thought it was a Thai editorial" implying that it wasn't Thai.

I asked whether the people at the Nation were NOT Thai, because you implied that they weren't.

So, are you saying that the editors at the Nation are Thai or not?

If they are, then it IS a Thai editorial.

[waza]

Its all a bit of a catch 22 situation, they need the 2.2 trillion baht loan to continue payments on the populist policies to maintain support, but the reds want amnesty now. They have been placated with the 2 billion baht compensation for the red prisoners but it wont last. Thaksin need constitutional change to remove all checks and balances this will solve the party dissolution issues and effect his white wash. My guess is they will grab the cash, then push through amnesty and constitutional change then dissolve parliament to gain another mandate to rule.

They've obviously factored-in that their opponents will sit on the sidelines and do nothing, while all this is going on.

The fact that laws are applied selectively will obviously be in the Government's favour.

Are PTP arrogant or just - to put it politely - uneducated?

Plan A is floundering through judicial oversights and negative PR, support is crumbling and talk of revolt is getting louder, corruption has eaten away the financial war chest and the puppet PM is in ice-cream land. Yingluck's job is to be popular as she doesn't have the political savvy or intestinal fortitude to ride rough shot over the cabinet and supporters. So greed, disunity, arrogance and no real cabinet support have turned this plan into a festering pig on life support.

What will Thaksin try next?

I think plan B is that they railroad their agenda through using their majority, then any opposition wont matter in the long run. Opposition such as protests and military coups can be nullified by dissolution of the parliament, a judicial coup would be nullified by the constitutional changes. The Democrats, politically are a toothless tiger all they can do is mount legal challenges and build support. But the real threats to this plan are the senate and a lack of popular support as displayed in the recent by elections but both can be bought off.

Edited July 7, 2013 by waza

[Noistar]

Its all a bit of a catch 22 situation, they need the 2.2 trillion baht loan to continue payments on the populist policies to maintain support, but the reds want amnesty now. They have been placated with the 2 billion baht compensation for the red prisoners but it wont last. Thaksin need constitutional change to remove all checks and balances this will solve the party dissolution issues and effect his white wash. My guess is they will grab the cash, then push through amnesty and constitutional change then dissolve parliament to gain another mandate to rule.

They've obviously factored-in that their opponents will sit on the sidelines and do nothing, while all this is going on.

The fact that laws are applied selectively will obviously be in the Government's favour.

Are PTP arrogant or just - to put it politely - uneducated?

Plan A is floundering through judicial oversights and negative PR, support is crumbling and talk of revolt is getting louder, corruption has eaten away the financial war chest and the puppet PM is in ice-cream land. Yingluck's job is to be popular as she doesn't have the political savvy or intestinal fortitude to ride rough shot over the cabinet and supporters. So greed, disunity, arrogance and no real cabinet support have turned this plan into a festering pig on life support.

What will Thaksin try next?

I think plan B is that they railroad their agenda through using their majority, then any opposition wont matter in the long run. Opposition such as protests and military coups can be nullified by dissolution of the parliament, a judicial coup would be nullified by the constitutional changes. The Democrats, politically are a toothless tiger all they can do is mount legal challenges and build support. But the real threats to this plan are the senate and a lack of popular support as displayed in the recent by elections but both can be bought off.

Your comment re the Democrats could possibly be re-phrased as 'all they can do is follow the democratic parliamentary procedure'. Whether the end result changes doesn't matter, it's the fact that in a democracy, I kind of assumed things were done democratically. If only I'd had a Thai education so I wouldn't have the problem of thinking!