Japan Says It Faces Increasing Threats from China, North Korea

[boomerangutang]

We've known for awhile now that China's claims to those little rock islands are ridiculous, but look at Vietnam's claims - nearly as quixotic as China's. ASEAN foreign ministers should find the testicular fortitude to take a stand for what's right. But they won't, for obvious reasons (China is too big and there are economic ties to worry about). From a purely logical and common-sense perspective, based on physical distance to contended islands, Philippines and Malaysia deserve to get the lion's share of them. But logic and common sense have no place in such territorial grabs.

[SinglePot]

maybe a bit of testicular fortitude and a few aircraft carriers might help.

[LawrenceChee]

Looking into history , I am unsure why people would deny China's fear of Japan is real.

In WWII, China acceded modern day Manchuria (modern day shenyang and changchun areas) to Japan in the hope of pacifying an aggressive Japanese Navy.

The Japanese held on to that promise for a few years and proceeded to attack all major cities of China including the rape of Nanking. They systematically destroyed everything in sight and burned cities to the ground.

Lets not forget this navy has such a good stead in warfare they defeated most enemies in the pacific region including the western navies and were the initial aggressor.

Are they that pacifist right now and docile ? No they have elected the most hawkish prime minister in recent history who has wasted no time in promoting his country's interest and their current navy is no pushover.

Anyone who has worked or visited Japan know their organization skills is second to none and any country rightly should fear the Japanese.

Looking at the China side, with that in mind with the amount of people who died in recent wars , which government will be sitting idle and not build up your own defense forces. China is doing what any country would do if you have the resources and the power to do so.

China has also a president Xi who is hawkish and proud of his Chinese heritage and will not back down. Again is that aggression or just politics ? I don't see a weaker country being bullied by a bigger one...both have their strengths and allies and both have their own points to put across

I don't see anything wrong in being proud of your own race or country and try to develop it ...every country including those in the west have had their glory days and dominated world affairs ...it's china turn now and I can understand why some dont like it

Japan is no pushover and we should not pretend they are some meek country being terrorized.

Both china and Japan have something to lose if they really go to war and no leader will be ready to risk that

The current affairs between china and Japan resembles 2 pit bulls barking at each other and trying to be the dominant one but they won't kill.

[Ulysses G.]

I would be a heck of a lot more worried about China being "aggressive" than Japan.

[SinglePot]

The topic is not about China's fear of Japan.

[SinglePot]

"I don't see anything wrong in being proud of your own race or country and try to develop it ...every country including those in the west have had their glory days and dominated world affairs ...it's china turn now and I can understand why some dont like it "

China got left behind. Now they want to avenge it.

Major political and economic decisions made by leaders with no vision, cost China.

Now it looks like their inadequacy will cost everybody else.

[Publicus]

We've known for awhile now that China's claims to those little rock islands are ridiculous, but look at Vietnam's claims - nearly as quixotic as China's. ASEAN foreign ministers should find the testicular fortitude to take a stand for what's right. But they won't, for obvious reasons (China is too big and there are economic ties to worry about). From a purely logical and common-sense perspective, based on physical distance to contended islands, Philippines and Malaysia deserve to get the lion's share of them. But logic and common sense have no place in such territorial grabs.

maybe a bit of testicular fortitude and a few aircraft carriers might help.

The Philippines last year set Beijing off hopping mad when the Phils filed a case with the United Nations charging Beijing with violating the UN Convention on the International Law of the Sea, to which Beijing is a signatory. Beijing is furious because the UNCLOS already has clear provisions that say Beijing doesn't have a leg to stand on. A cursory look at the excellent map posted above shows Beijing is clearly infringing into the territorial waters of several Asean countries, and Beijing knows it. So does everybody else.

Asean quickly went on record as being fully in support of the Phils filing its case with the UN. Asean also is unified in pressing Beijing to codify a 2002 informal agreement that Beijing negotiate with Asean as a whole in South China Sea resource matters. Only Cambodia has expressed displeasure at the Phils, but Hun Sen gets his strings from Beijing tugged on regularly and sometimes rather forcefully.

Further displeasing Beijing, the new secretary general of Asean is from Vietnam and Vietnam is enthusiastically supporting the Phil's case. Vietnam already has leased some of its territorial fields to India which is preparing to get to work at it and already has told Beijing to bugger off.

The United States strongly supports the Phil's approach and is pleased to see such a rapid response by the UN to the Phil's case as is occurring. The judges already have been appointed by the UN and the case is just about ready to be heard, which for the UN is swift action.

So the countdown is on to a real Beijing temper tantrum - or worse.

[SinglePot]

Anybody able to do a quick bit of Photoshop on that map that EyesWIdeOpen posted earlier.

P51 Mustang. Cadillac of the Skies.

China got aircraft to compete?

[Publicus]

Looking into history , I am unsure why people would deny China's fear of Japan is real.

In WWII, China acceded modern day Manchuria (modern day shenyang and changchun areas) to Japan in the hope of pacifying an aggressive Japanese Navy.

The Japanese held on to that promise for a few years and proceeded to attack all major cities of China including the rape of Nanking. They systematically destroyed everything in sight and burned cities to the ground.

Lets not forget this navy has such a good stead in warfare they defeated most enemies in the pacific region including the western navies and were the initial aggressor.

Are they that pacifist right now and docile ? No they have elected the most hawkish prime minister in recent history who has wasted no time in promoting his country's interest and their current navy is no pushover.

Anyone who has worked or visited Japan know their organization skills is second to none and any country rightly should fear the Japanese.

Looking at the China side, with that in mind with the amount of people who died in recent wars , which government will be sitting idle and not build up your own defense forces. China is doing what any country would do if you have the resources and the power to do so.

China has also a president Xi who is hawkish and proud of his Chinese heritage and will not back down. Again is that aggression or just politics ? I don't see a weaker country being bullied by a bigger one...both have their strengths and allies and both have their own points to put across

I don't see anything wrong in being proud of your own race or country and try to develop it ...every country including those in the west have had their glory days and dominated world affairs ...it's china turn now and I can understand why some dont like it

Japan is no pushover and we should not pretend they are some meek country being terrorized.

Both china and Japan have something to lose if they really go to war and no leader will be ready to risk that

The current affairs between china and Japan resembles 2 pit bulls barking at each other and trying to be the dominant one but they won't kill.

My god.

The post contains more of the self-pitying and backward looking obsessions that presents old scores to settle and a mindset of innocent victimization.

During the time of the militant Showa Japanese leaders (1926-1945) the Chinese were busy slaughtering each other in a civil war that Mao Zee Dong finally won over Chiang Kai Shek. Not satisfied with that, Beijing fiercely asserts that the Republic of China, i.e., Taiwan, where the losing side went to establish its own new country, is a province of the CCP-PRC. Gotta have that too.

What the CCP-PRC doesn't get is that you have become what you once fought against, i.e., the equivalent of the Showa Japanese that gave us World War II and so much venomous hate throughout the East Asia and Pacific region during the war.

The Japanese have reformed and everyone knows that, to include becoming a democratic society and government. Japan was getting prosperous and creating an advanced economy while Mao was conducting his brutal cultural revolution throughout the Heavenly Kingdom. Indeed, the Chinese have regressed, due in large part to the continuation of their 5000 continuous years of dictatorship and its censoring, punishing, repressive one party state of a new dynasty of emperors in business suits.

The CCP is a young dynasty and a very nervous one. All young Chinese dynasties always have had good reason to be nervous. Most of them got, on average, 250 years. This dynasty is just over 60 years old and has already become the neighbor from hell throughout the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region. Sun Tzu they are not. More like a bunch of klutzes taking on the entire region in one fell swoop that is isolating and self-containing themselves.

With a gang of klutzes in charge in Beijing, the critical matter of deciding to make war becomes secondary to precipitating war by stupid miscalculation. Even trained pit bulls do bite you know.

[SinglePot]

".......the west have had their glory days and dominated world affairs ...it's china turn now.............."

Read what the guy with the daschund is saying.

It's not complicated.

[Publicus]

".......the west have had their glory days and dominated world affairs ...it's china turn now.............."

Read what the guy with the daschund is saying.

It's not complicated.

Yeah, as you know I'd addressed this ancient and antiquated, backward looking world view in a previous post.

The PRChinese continue to believe, erroneously, that in the modern world there are empires and that the empires rise and fall like the winter wheat.

I'd reiterate that the last and final empire was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics which as we know went the way of the dodo bird.

The CCP-PRC is not a rising empire and there aren't any declining or falling empires despite the ideological teachings and thinking of the CCP. Hell, the CCP still believes in the reactionary form of government that is dictatorship, which shows how out of date and out of time the CCP are.

More dodo birds in Beijing (choking on the foul air, water, land).

[Loptr]

Japan's greatest and most immediate threat the overflow of contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Let them rattle sabers later, clean up your mess NOW!!!

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/08/07/19910577-wrecked-fukushima-nuke-plant-leaking-330-tons-of-contaminated-water-a-day?lite

[SinglePot]

Yep. Earthquake and tsunami. Natural disaster.

How's China dealing with the pollution coming out of coal fired power stations?

Hydroelectric power from dams on the Mekong?

Concern about the environment is not a strong card that China can play.

Economic growth with little or no regard for consequences.

[Publicus]

Yep. Earthquake and tsunami. Natural disaster.

How's China dealing with the pollution coming out of coal fired power stations?

Hydroelectric power from dams on the Mekong?

Concern about the environment is not a strong card that China can play.

Economic growth with little or no regard for consequences.

[Publicus]

The real danger and threat in all of this are that the klutzes in Beijing who are determined to try to become the regionally dominant power of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region overdo it.

Japan is successfully blocking this calculated design of Beijing, which knows that before it can become a global power it must first become a regional power.

Neither is happening.

Still, the worst case scenario is that the klutzes in Beijing start a war in the Guns of August fashion, i.e., by a series of blunders and errors, bad judgements, miscalculations and misjudgements. It's the apparently small things that can precipitate big problems. This possibility I'm afraid is very real.

For all of its long history, the PRChinese have learned nothing of meaningful consequence or significance.

China and Japan square up

The drums of war

http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21569757-armed-clashes-over-trivial-specks-east-china-sea-loom-closer-drums-war

WATCH Chinese television these days and you might conclude that the outbreak of war with Japan over what it calls the Senkaku and China the Diaoyu islands is only a matter of time. You might well be right. Since Japan last September announced it would “nationalise” three of the islands that had been privately owned, China, which has long contested Japan’s sovereignty over them, has also started challenging Japan's resolve to keep control of them.

[LawrenceChee]

Yep. Earthquake and tsunami. Natural disaster.

How's China dealing with the pollution coming out of coal fired power stations?

Hydroelectric power from dams on the Mekong?

Concern about the environment is not a strong card that China can play.

Economic growth with little or no regard for consequences.

I agree ...blame the west for their cheap orders for filling up the factories and creating the pollution

Thank god the Chinese government is slowly moving into a self consumption economy model instead of subjecting itself to this crap

Be prepared to pay for a $40 Barbie doll and more expensive stuff at your local IKEA store ...I ask too that the days of cheap goods production may move to other countries.

It's rather moronic to think they want this mess.

[LawrenceChee]

I am willing to bet my money with you Single Pot and Publius with a meal at 4 Seasons or Mandarin or whatever posh hotel u like in Thailand ...pick whatever u like with wine if the war starts in the next 5 years if you believe it is this imminent

If I win and there is no war (yawn) then buy the next ticket to china ...sit down with a cup of tea with the locals and discover to your surprise that most Chinese think highly of Japanese and their culture and this is their top Asian tourist destination to visit and experience the culture

Discover for yourself most Chinese do not care about the politics and that view is similar to the west...go look at your last voter turnout and see its no different

When you see 50,000 protesting over the street and expressing their hatred for Japan ...doing the math over the total sum of the population and you discover the ratios and reality most Chinese are more concerned like you and me about their monthly utility bill than 3 islands somewhere where they will never visit and there is no LV store there.

But if you want to continue this war cry about china to while your time away ...you are on your own

I'm out as I can see the discussion is going nowhere. Have a great week.

[boomerangutang]

The current affairs between china and Japan resembles 2 pit bulls barking at each other and trying to be the dominant one but they won't kill.

I would term it more as a bull and a beagle eyeing each other. China, the bull, is big, but plodding. The beagle is quick and nippy. Either can be docile or either can be actively angry. Better to leave sleeping dogs (and bulls) lie.

Similar to human nature in general. As individuals and as groups, people can be content / minding their own biz. Alternatively, humans are quick to anger, and can mobilize/incite others to their cause. I don't see the current China/Japan tension as anywhere near as potentially volatile as what might ensue further south, ....involving Philippines and its friends.

Will ASEAN stand alongside the Fils? Will Japan or Taiwan? Doubtful. Most likely: no Asian country will risk tangible assistance to the Philippines if push comes to shove. There will be heaps of limp rhetoric from them, for sure, such as "let's talk about this...." but only the US (with perhaps NATO and ANZAC) will stand by their friend in substantive and tangible ways.

Response to above post: we're not so much discussing individual Chinese people. No doubt they can be as reasonable and/or as self-centered with their day to day struggles as people anywhere ww. The problems stem from the leaders - who in turn incite their minions to think and act in screwed up ways.

[ABCer]

Sometimes I envy your strength of belief and conviction, NeverSure. With all my heart I would like to be wrong and you right. But if we discard all emotional moments and turn to hard facts we'll see the following.

Japan is surrounded by 'friendly' neighbors - China, Russia and N.Korea - all three with nukes. Let us discard the question of delivery capabilities, because I firmly believe neither China nor Russia will use them. Note, it is only belief, and it's mine. But Japs have to go to bed every night with this my belief. N.Korea is entirely different kettle of fish. If not provoked, they will not attack Japan, but rather their brothers in south.

Hence, the only real danger is conventional military action. Japan is claiming Kuril islands from Russia. But they will not go to war over this with a big strong bear. Result - stalemate, until they buy them out (maybe!) because Russians don't really need them so badly. N.Korea will be out of the picture very soon, especially if the f-g West will stop giving them what they need. Finally, Japs are left with one real threat - China. Conventionally speaking Chinese could overrun the whole bunch of islands before the Noble Ally wakes up. Will this happen? Not sure. Could this happen? Sure! But the most likely scenario - China simply takes what they claim and worry about consequences later. I doubt it would be all out war!

US has a Treaty with Japan. But US national interests are paramount. Both militarily and economically. If you ask me Japan today has one pretty leaking umbrella overhead. History had seen too many Treaties treated badly. Self-reliance is the only thing that is guaranteed - yet never 100%.

[Publicus]

Sometimes I envy your strength of belief and conviction, NeverSure. With all my heart I would like to be wrong and you right. But if we discard all emotional moments and turn to hard facts we'll see the following.

Japan is surrounded by 'friendly' neighbors - China, Russia and N.Korea - all three with nukes. Let us discard the question of delivery capabilities, because I firmly believe neither China nor Russia will use them. Note, it is only belief, and it's mine. But Japs have to go to bed every night with this my belief. N.Korea is entirely different kettle of fish. If not provoked, they will not attack Japan, but rather their brothers in south.

Hence, the only real danger is conventional military action. Japan is claiming Kuril islands from Russia. But they will not go to war over this with a big strong bear. Result - stalemate, until they buy them out (maybe!) because Russians don't really need them so badly. N.Korea will be out of the picture very soon, especially if the f-g West will stop giving them what they need. Finally, Japs are left with one real threat - China. Conventionally speaking Chinese could overrun the whole bunch of islands before the Noble Ally wakes up. Will this happen? Not sure. Could this happen? Sure! But the most likely scenario - China simply takes what they claim and worry about consequences later. I doubt it would be all out war!

US has a Treaty with Japan. But US national interests are paramount. Both militarily and economically. If you ask me Japan today has one pretty leaking umbrella overhead. History had seen too many Treaties treated badly. Self-reliance is the only thing that is guaranteed - yet never 100%.

Beijing would take a great miscalculated erroneous risk to do something it could do, which is to "overrun the whole bunch of islands" that are the sovereign territory of Japan. The U.S. and its treaty ally Japan have already conducted military exercises to reclaim islands lost to an aggressor, and Beijing is a raw aggressor, bold and shameless.

The klutzes in Beijing are more of a danger to themselves than any foreign country could be. And to the rest of us.

Dawn Blitz: U.S. and Japanese storm island:

Bilateral military exercise develops amphibious ops

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Jun/17/dawn-blitz-san-clemente-island-japanese-marines/

A joint force of U.S. and Japanese infantry secured the airfield on a remote training range off the coast of San Diego Monday during the Dawn Blitz military exercise.

.About 5,000 troops are training during Dawn Blitz, which began Tuesday and finishes June 28. For the first time since the annual exercises were launched in 2010, Japan sent maritime, aviation and naval forces to participate. Military forces from Canada and New Zealand also joined in, and seven other countries sent observers.

“We have an obligation to work with our allies," said Lt. Gen. John Toolan, commanding general of the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force headquartered at Camp Pendleton, California, "so for the Marine Corps, particularly in amphibious development, that happens to be our core competency … so we are able to share that with our allies and our partners in the Pacific,” Toolan said.

U.S., Japan Train for Island Defense

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444083304578013692399658834.html

Japan's military is sharpening its skills at defending remote islands with the help of U.S. troops, as Tokyo faces an increasingly contentious dispute with China.

In a move that signals how the two allies are adjusting their defense cooperation to counter Beijing's growing territorial ambitions in the Western Pacific, troops from Japan's Ground Self Defense Force have been receiving training on amphibious military tactics from the U.S. Marine Corps on Guam.

The current session is the first drill devoted to island defense by the American and Japanese units defending the southern island chain of Okinawa which China has recently claimed is its sovereign territory.

Japan's Self-Defense Forces elite in joint exercises with U.S. forces to seize occupied island

http://www.best-news.us/news-4624636-Photo:-Japan-39s-Self-Defense-Forces-elite-managing-to-make-out-joint-exercises-with-US-forces-seize-the-island.html

SDF crack troops go to the U.S. to learn 'seize the island' skills

Japanese and U.S. officials stress they don't envision any specific country as an enemy as they conduct these drills. But the occasion is a provocative show of unity between the two allies, coming at a time when a dispute over a group of small uninhabited islands in the East China Sea brings tensions between Japan and China to levels not seen in many years.

The exercise—while scheduled weeks ago—coincided with a period when anti-Japan protests turned violent in some Chinese cities, pro- and anti-Japanese activists have landed on the islands, and a small fleet of Chinese boats have hovered for days near the territorial waters of the disputed islands.

[SinglePot]

Only way to deal with a bully is to stand up.

Well done Japan.

[Publicus]

The current affairs between china and Japan resembles 2 pit bulls barking at each other and trying to be the dominant one but they won't kill.

I would term it more as a bull and a beagle eyeing each other. China, the bull, is big, but plodding. The beagle is quick and nippy. Either can be docile or either can be actively angry. Better to leave sleeping dogs (and bulls) lie.

Similar to human nature in general. As individuals and as groups, people can be content / minding their own biz. Alternatively, humans are quick to anger, and can mobilize/incite others to their cause. I don't see the current China/Japan tension as anywhere near as potentially volatile as what might ensue further south, ....involving Philippines and its friends.

Will ASEAN stand alongside the Fils? Will Japan or Taiwan? Doubtful. Most likely: no Asian country will risk tangible assistance to the Philippines if push comes to shove. There will be heaps of limp rhetoric from them, for sure, such as "let's talk about this...." but only the US (with perhaps NATO and ANZAC) will stand by their friend in substantive and tangible ways.

Response to above post: we're not so much discussing individual Chinese people. No doubt they can be as reasonable and/or as self-centered with their day to day struggles as people anywhere ww. The problems stem from the leaders - who in turn incite their minions to think and act in screwed up ways.

Asean has made itself clear to the Boyz in Beijing that it 100% supports the Philippines' case filed with the United Nations that the CCP-PRC needs to adhere to the UN Convention on the International Law of the Sea in all South China Sea matters. This means Beijing faces united Asean opposition to its absurd and assinine [sic] claim of sovereignty over practically all of the SCS.

The Asean statement of July 6th at the conclusion of the Asean summit in Brunei is exactly the position of the Phils in the Phil's UNCLOS case against Beijing at the UN.

Specifically, the Asean summit communique' states, " [W]e reaffirmed the collective commitments under the DOC to ensuring the resolution of disputes by peaceful means in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, without resorting to the threat or use of force, while exercising self-restraint in the conduct of activities." (DOC = Declaration of Conduct issued by Asean.)

This is exactly the Philippine position, which is now clearly and unmistakably stated in the official Asean summit's final statement from Brunei.

Beijing's Asean mouthpiece Cambodia has piped down because it has seen that its membership in Asean is meaningless and self-isolating due to it previously having been an open and brazen Chinese puppet at previous Asean meetings. Additionally the summit host, the Sultan of Brunei gave his support to the Indonesian initiative to create a solid resolve among Asean member states.

Once again Beijing's aggressiveness and belligerence towards its East Asia neighbors, to include especially in forcefully asserting its completely bogus claims to almost the entire South China Sea, and the refusal of both the Philippines and Vietnam to back down, has had the effect of strengthening Asean's conviction to unite against the Beijing bullies.

Perhaps Asean has some new backbone because it too realizes Beijing doesn't have a leg to stand on in the Phil's case against it based on the provisons of the UNCLOS treaty, to which Beijing is a signatory.

The klutzes in Beijing continue to isolate and self-contain themselves due to their own neighbor from hell policies of the past three years.

Asean appears more united on South China Sea issues

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Asean-appears-more-united-on-South-China-Sea-issue-30209796.html

Around this time last year, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations reeled from an unexpected scandal: the failure for the first time to issue a joint communique after a leaders' summit - China had pressured host Cambodia, its close ally, not to allow any mention of the South China Sea disputes in the traditional closing statement; both the Philippines and Vietnam vigourously objected, but in the end Cambodia chose to side, not with its ASEAN partners, but with China.

Chinese overreach had immediate regional consequences. Beijing's aggressive conduct in the South China Sea attracted renewed international attention, Cambodia felt the urgent need to repair its relations with neighbouring Vietnam, one of the claimant countries, and, not least, the largest ASEAN member, Indonesia, began a form of shuttle diplomacy, with support from Singapore, to try to repair the unexpected damage to ASEAN unity.

[boomerangutang]

The above post sounds encouraging. Yet, I regrettably have to sleep with one eye open in regard to counting on ASEAN members to tangibly stand alongside their Phil brethren. Though a different scenario, there are some similarities with the E.Timor problem of a decade ago. Before international intervention, no SE Asian (or any Asian) countries showed a modicum of support for the E. Timorese. When outside force became necessary, who was on the scene to counter the Indonesian authorities? Yup, it was Anzac, Nato and the Yanks. So it will be, if things get ugly between Philippines and China.

Parting shot re; E.Timor: Thailand send a little group of uniformed men, weeks after the farang had done the tough work that needed to be done. And I'd be surprised if that little contingent of Thais was not paid for by westerners - in order to gain the 'face' needed to make it look as though ASEAN was behind the effort. If it had been left to ASEAN, the most the E.Timorese would have rec'd in assistance was some 'nice words,' and it would still, today, be a police state run by Indonesia.

[Publicus]

The above post sounds encouraging. Yet, I regrettably have to sleep with one eye open in regard to counting on ASEAN members to tangibly stand alongside their Phil brethren. Though a different scenario, there are some similarities with the E.Timor problem of a decade ago. Before international intervention, no SE Asian (or any Asian) countries showed a modicum of support for the E. Timorese. When outside force became necessary, who was on the scene to counter the Indonesian authorities? Yup, it was Anzac, Nato and the Yanks. So it will be, if things get ugly between Philippines and China.

Parting shot re; E.Timor: Thailand send a little group of uniformed men, weeks after the farang had done the tough work that needed to be done. And I'd be surprised if that little contingent of Thais was not paid for by westerners - in order to gain the 'face' needed to make it look as though ASEAN was behind the effort. If it had been left to ASEAN, the most the E.Timorese would have rec'd in assistance was some 'nice words,' and it would still, today, be a police state run by Indonesia.

You are right so I wouldn't dispute your position or your arguments.

It should be noted however that two things have generated an arms race among East Asians to better prepare for either eventuality concerning the CCP-PRC - that the CCP-PRC becomes such a bully to such and extent that a coordinated military show of force by Asean governments becomes a necessity, or that the CCP-PRC will collapse the way the Soviet Union did and thus leave a mass of chaos on the Mainland of the PRC, which might also result in military conflict by segments of the PLA.

A collapse of the CCP-PRC is a realistic scenario given its dire economic and financial straits. North Korea would be so severely impacted in such a scenario that it could, and probably would, press all the red buttons as it goes down the drain all flags flying.

Either way, East Asia is a much more dangerous place than it was ten years ago - a far more dangerous place.

Beijing is not above a defiant show of military force in the SCS once it loses the case against it the Philippines has taken to the UN concerning Beijing's obvious and blatant violations in the SCS of the UN Convention on the International Law of the Sea. E Timor and Asean aren't comparable to this kind of scenario.

Yes the U.S., Japan, Australia, New Zealand and other Western military forces would have to become involved as a response. However, all of the Western governments are pressing Asean hard to develop their own military capabilities, which is something most Asean governments, Taiwan, Japan already have been doing.

Presently the U.S. is focused on training East Asian militaries in their new weaponry. However, with Japan, U.S. and Japanese forces are training together in joint exercises from the West coast of the US to U.S. bases in places such as Guam. Asean and Japan know however we're not going to be doing a whole lot of low intensity fighting for them.

East Asian Arms Races- and Cooperation Growth of weapons heightens tensions, but can spur mutual aid

https://ip-journal.dgap.org/en/ip-journal/topics/east-asian-arms-races-and-cooperation

The inherited conflicts and their military dimensions are associated in particular with the economic and political rise of the People’s Republic of China, which has triggered a host of fears in the region.

Sources of this disquiet range from concern about the possibility of a strong China with hegemonic ambitions to the question of what happens if the Middle Kingdom collapses economically and politically.

Militarily, such uncertainties about China’s future policies and about the country’s impressive build-up of conventional arms and nuclear potential (mostly still overlooked in Europe) are reflected in neighboring states’ new threat perceptions and defense planning, as well as new military doctrines and strategies

[Publicus]

Beijing isn't ever going to stop its determination to become the dominant regional power in East Asia.

Beijing will cause or create a shooting incident sooner or later, people will die. Then things will only get worse.

No matter what Beijing tries or does, however, it looses.

The Promise and Peril of China’s New Coast Guard

http://thediplomat.com/2013/08/07/the-promise-and-peril-of-chinas-new-coast-guard/

Four ships from the newly established China Coast Guard (CCG) were deployed in the East China Sea near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands on July 24, as reported by Kyodo News and Xinhua.

The ships have also been sighted in the area around Mischief Reef according to a confidential Philippine government report.

While Chinese government vessels have consistently entered both seas over the past year, this marked the first time ships did so under the restructured State Oceanic Administration (SOA).

[wileycoyote]

Wny don't the Japanese improve links with India ,who have just launched a new aircraft -carrier INS Vikrant

[Publicus]

Wny don't the Japanese improve links with India ,who have just launched a new aircraft -carrier INS Vikrant

That's an excellent question that is both relevant and material.

Japan and India have come together quite closely during the past 18 or so months, to the point of having had joint naval maneuvers in the East China Sea earlier this year.

PM Shinzo Abe spoke before the Indian parliament of a "Democracy Diamond" in East Asia, from Japan to Hawaii, to Australia and to India, back thorough SE Asia and Asean.

There's a lot of cooperation and activity going on between India and Japan. The U.S. is quite involved also. A lot is going on in reaction to the CCP-PRC. India just created two new infantry mountain divisions to put on the border with the CCP-PRC and also just created a new mobile tactical force. It's building a huge new naval facility on the Andaman Islands. India is united with Japan in reaction against the aggressions of the CCP-PRC in Beijing's determined effort to become the dominant regional power of the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region.

There just isn't any thread topic on India as an emerging democratic naval power in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region. I've got plenty of stuff on this and about India and Japan coming together in numerous ways, but there isn't anywhere at ThaiVisa to post it to a relevant topic or thread.

ThaiVisa almost completely ignores India in almost all things, and has only recently discovered the CCP-PRC.

[Publicus]

Beijing's domineering conduct these past few years in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region has prompted fellow Asian powers to make common cause, such as we've seen between Japan and India. Since Beijing unleashed itself on the East Asia region to become the neighbor from hell, new alliances and new strategies have begun to be developed among governments of the region.

By keeping their sea power strong and coordinating their capabilities, the U.S., its allies, and its friends can have the decisive say in the maritime power balance of the region, thus denying Beijing its determined aim to become the dominant power in the East Asia region.

How to Measure China’s Maritime Power

http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2013/08/13/how-to-measure-chinas-maritime-power/

Asian geography situates so many powers so close to one another that land and air forces can shape events at sea.

China can improve its seagoing forces and the shore fire support that shields them all it wants in absolute terms.

But if its rivals compete effectively, they can flatten the upward trajectory of Chinese sea power — preserving such advantages as they enjoy today, and staying ahead in the competition.

[Publicus]

Wny don't the Japanese improve links with India ,who have just launched a new aircraft -carrier INS Vikrant

I'm reasonably confident this is the kind of development you are interested in seeing between Japan and India and which is of great interest to me and to many others.

If ThaiVisa started a thread based on this kind of news story we all could find out a lot about the many developments during the past two years that have brought Japan and India closer together in response to the CCP-PRC unleashing itself upon each country and throughout the Indo-Pacific Strategic Region as the neighbor from hell.

Japan-India Security Cooperation

http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/17/japan-india-security-cooperation/

At the recent Japan-India Summit, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared and pronounced “Japan as a natural and indispensable partner in our quest for stability and peace in the vast region of Asia-Pacific.” Echoing him, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also repeatedly emphasized his 2007 remarks, “Confluence of the Two Seas,” which highlighted the maritime security and cooperation between the two countries.

China was clearly alarmed by this development, evident in the commentary that appeared in the Communist Party organ, Global Times, Calling Japanese “petty burglars” and “international provocateurs,” it warned India of getting close to Japan “at its own peril.” Clearly, Beijing has not missed the emerging balance of power in Asia.

[Publicus]

Wny don't the Japanese improve links with India ,who have just launched a new aircraft -carrier INS Vikrant

This is yet more of what you express interest in in your post. I have great interest in the newly strong alliance between Japan and India and so do many other of us at ThaiVisa.

As I'd said, during the past 18 or so months Japan and India have formed an Indo-Pacific Strategic Alliance which is the direct result of the bellicose aggressiveness of Beijing in its determination to overturn the status quo to try to establish itself as the dominant regional power.

If ThaiVisa had a thread along the lines of this story, then all of us could catch up on the many developments between Japan and India to become strategic allies and to defend and promote democracy throughout the region.

Japan and India’s Growing Embrace

PoliticsSecurityTopic

January 12, 2013

By Jeffrey W. Hornung

With Shinzo Abe's return in Japan, expect Tokyo and Delhi's already strong ties to reach new heights.

Japan and India’s security cooperation over the last six years has been greater than in the previous sixty years combined. This cooperation includes: building naval capacity through port calls, naval and coast guard exchanges, joint naval and coast guard exercises, and greater cooperation in information sharing and technical assistance; the protection of sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and anti-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden; and extending patrol boats and capacity building training to the littoral states in the Strait of Malacca. Along with their strategic dialogue, the two sides have launched a bilateral Shipping Policy Forum, a Maritime Security Dialogue, and a Cybersecurity Dialogue.

http://thediplomat.com/2013/01/12/japan-and-indias-growing-embrace/